arXiv subjects

Richard A. Neher

Publications and source records attributed to Richard A. Neher.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Eco-evolutionary dynamics of adapting pathogens and host immunity

As pathogens spread in a population of hosts, immunity is built up and the pool of susceptible individuals is depleted. This generates selective pressure, to which many human RNA viruses, such as influenza virus or SARS-CoV-2, respond with rapid antigenic evolution and frequent emergence of immune evasive variants. However, the host's immune systems adapt and older immune responses wane, such that escape variants only enjoy a growth advantage for a limited time. If variant growth dynamics and reshaping of host-immunity operate on comparable time scales, viral adaptation is determined by eco-evolutionary interactions that are not captured by models of rapid evolution in a fixed environment. Here, we use a Susceptible/Infected model to describe the interaction between an evolving viral population in a dynamic but immunologically diverse host population. We show that depending on strain cross-immunity, heterogeneity of the host population, and durability of immune responses, escape variants initially grow exponentially, but lose their growth advantage before reaching high frequencies. Their subsequent dynamics follows an anomalous random walk determined by future escape variants and results in variant trajectories that are unpredictable. This model can explain the apparent contradiction between the clearly adaptive nature of antigenic evolution and the quasi-neutral dynamics of high frequency variants observed for influenza viruses.

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arXiv2018

Progress and open problems in evolutionary dynamics

Evolution has fascinated quantitative and physical scientists for decades: how can the random process of mutation, recombination, and duplication of genetic information generate the diversity of life? What determines the rate of evolution? Are there quantitative laws that govern and constrain evolution? Is evolution repeatable or predictable? Historically, the study of evolution involved classifying and comparing species, typically based on morphology. In addition to phenotypes on the organismal and molecular scales, we now use whole-genome sequencing to uncover not only the differences between species but also to characterize genetic diversity within-species in unprecedented detail. This diversity can be compared to predictions of quantitative models of evolutionary dynamics. Here, we review key theoretical models of population genetics and evolution along with examples of data from lab evolution experiments, longitudinal sampling of viral populations, microbial communities and the studies of immune repertoires. In all these systems, evolution is shaped by often variable biological and physical environments. While these variable environments can be modeled implicitly in cases such as host-pathogen co-evolution, the dynamic environment, and emerging ecology often cannot be ignored. Integrating dynamics on different scales, both in terms of observation and theoretical models, remains a major challenge towards a better understanding of evolution.

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arXiv2016

Establishment and stability of the latent HIV-1 DNA reservoir

HIV-1 infection currently cannot be cured because the virus persists as integrated proviral DNA in long-lived cells despite years of suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART). To characterize establishment, turnover, and evolution of viral DNA reservoirs we deep-sequenced the p17gag region of the HIV-1 genome from samples obtained after 3-18 years of suppressive ART from 10 patients. For each of these patients, whole genome deep-sequencing data of HIV-1 RNA populations before onset of ART were available from 6-12 longitudinal plasma samples spanning 5-8 years of untreated infection. This enabled a detailed analysis of the dynamics and origin of proviral DNA during ART. A median of 14% (range 0-42%) of the p17gag DNA sequences were overtly defective due to G-to-A hypermutation. The remaining sequences were remarkably similar to previously observed RNA sequences and showed no evidence of evolution over many years of suppressive ART. Most sequences from the DNA reservoirs were very similar to viruses actively replicating in plasma (RNA sequences) shortly before start of ART. The results do not support persistent HIV-1 replication as a mechanism to maintain the HIV-1 reservoir during suppressive therapy. Rather, the data indicate that viral DNA variants are turning over as long as patients are untreated and that suppressive ART halts this turnover.

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arXiv2015

Prediction, dynamics, and visualization of antigenic phenotypes of seasonal influenza viruses

Human seasonal influenza viruses evolve rapidly, enabling the virus population to evade immunity and re-infect previously infected individuals. Antigenic properties are largely determined by the surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin (HA) and amino acid substitutions at exposed epitope sites in HA mediate loss of recognition by antibodies. Here, we show that antigenic differences measured through serological assay data are well described by a sum of antigenic changes along the path connecting viruses in a phylogenetic tree. This mapping onto the tree allows prediction of antigenicity from HA sequence data alone. The mapping can further be used to make predictions about the makeup of the future seasonal influenza virus population, and we compare predictions between models with serological and sequence data. To make timely model output readily available, we developed a web browser based application that visualizes antigenic data on a continuously updated phylogeny.

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arXiv2015

Population genomics of intrapatient HIV-1 evolution

Many microbial populations rapidly adapt to changing environments with multiple variants competing for survival. To quantify such complex evolutionary dynamics in vivo, time resolved and genome wide data including rare variants are essential. We performed whole-genome deep sequencing of HIV-1 populations in 9 untreated patients, with 6-12 longitudinal samples per patient spanning 5-8 years of infection. We show that patterns of minor diversity are reproducible between patients and mirror global HIV-1 diversity, suggesting a universal landscape of fitness costs that control diversity. Reversions towards the ancestral HIV-1 sequence are observed throughout infection and account for almost one third of all sequence changes. Reversion rates depend strongly on conservation. Frequent recombination limits linkage disequilibrium to about 100bp in most of the genome, but strong hitch-hiking due to short range linkage limits diversity.

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arXiv2014

Predicting evolution from the shape of genealogical trees

Given a sample of genome sequences from an asexual population, can one predict its evolutionary future? Here we demonstrate that the branching patterns of reconstructed genealogical trees contains information about the relative fitness of the sampled sequences and that this information can be used to predict successful strains. Our approach is based on the assumption that evolution proceeds by accumulation of small effect mutations, does not require species specific input and can be applied to any asexual population under persistent selection pressure. We demonstrate its performance using historical data on seasonal influenza A/H3N2 virus. We predict the progenitor lineage of the upcoming influenza season with near optimal performance in 30% of cases and make informative predictions in 16 out of 19 years. Beyond providing a tool for prediction, our ability to make informative predictions implies persistent fitness variation among circulating influenza A/H3N2 viruses.

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arXiv2013

Inferring HIV escape rates from multi-locus genotype data

Cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) recognize viral protein fragments displayed by major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules on the surface of virally infected cells and generate an anti-viral response that can kill the infected cells. Virus variants whose protein fragments are not efficiently presented on infected cells or whose fragments are presented but not recognized by CTLs therefore have a competitive advantage and spread rapidly through the population. We present a method that allows a more robust estimation of these escape rates from serially sampled sequence data. The proposed method accounts for competition between multiple escapes by explicitly modeling the accumulation of escape mutations and the stochastic effects of rare multiple mutants. Applying our method to serially sampled HIV sequence data, we estimate rates of HIV escape that are substantially larger than those previously reported. The method can be extended to complex escapes that require compensatory mutations. We expect our method to be applicable in other contexts such as cancer evolution where time series data is also available.

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arXiv2013

Coalescence, genetic diversity in sexual populations under selection

In sexual populations, selection operates neither on the whole genome, which is repeatedly taken apart and reassembled by recombination, nor on individual alleles that are tightly linked to the chromosomal neighborhood. The resulting interference between linked alleles reduces the efficiency of selection and distorts patterns of genetic diversity. Inference of evolutionary history from diversity shaped by linked selection requires an understanding of these patterns. Here, we present a simple but powerful scaling analysis identifying the unit of selection as the genomic "linkage block" with a characteristic length determined in a self-consistent manner by the condition that the rate of recombination within the block is comparable to the fitness differences between different alleles of the block. We find that an asexual model with the strength of selection tuned to that of the linkage block provides an excellent description of genetic diversity and the site frequency spectra when compared to computer simulations. This linkage block approximation is accurate for the entire spectrum of strength of selection and is particularly powerful in scenarios with many weakly selected loci. The latter limit allows us to characterize coalescence, genetic diversity, and the speed of adaptation in the infinitesimal model of quantitative genetics.

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arXiv2013

Interference limits resolution of selection pressures from linked neutral diversity

Pervasive natural selection can strongly influence observed patterns of genetic variation, but these effects remain poorly understood when multiple selected variants segregate in nearby regions of the genome. Classical population genetics fails to account for interference between linked mutations, which grows increasingly severe as the density of selected polymorphisms increases. Here, we describe a simple limit that emerges when interference is common, in which the fitness effects of individual mutations play a relatively minor role. Instead, molecular evolution is determined by the variance in fitness within the population, defined over an effectively asexual segment of the genome (a ``linkage block''). We exploit this insensitivity in a new ``coarse-grained'' coalescent framework, which approximates the effects of many weakly selected mutations with a smaller number of strongly selected mutations with the same variance in fitness. This approximation generates accurate and efficient predictions for the genetic diversity that cannot be summarized by a simple reduction in effective population size. However, these results suggest a fundamental limit on our ability to resolve individual selection pressures from contemporary sequence data alone, since a wide range of parameters yield nearly identical patterns of sequence variability.

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arXiv2013

Deleterious synonymous mutations hitchhike to high frequency in HIV-1 env evolution

Intrapatient HIV-1 evolution is dominated by selection on the protein level in the arms race with the adaptive immune system. When cytotoxic CD8+ T-cells or neutralizing antibodies target a new epitope, the virus often escapes via nonsynonymous mutations that impair recognition. Synonymous mutations do not affect this interplay and are often assumed to be neutral. We analyze longitudinal intrapatient data from the C2-V5 part of the envelope gene (env) and observe that synonymous derived alleles rarely fix even though they often reach high frequencies in the viral population. We find that synonymous mutations that disrupt base pairs in RNA stems flanking the variable loops of gp120 are more likely to be lost than other synonymous changes, hinting at a direct fitness effect of these stem-loop structures in the HIV-1 RNA. Computational modeling indicates that these synonymous mutations have a (Malthusian) selection coefficient of the order of -0.002 and that they are brought up to high frequency by hitchhiking on neighboring beneficial nonsynonymous alleles. The patterns of fixation of nonsynonymous mutations estimated from the longitudinal data and comparisons with computer models suggest that escape mutations in C2-V5 are only transiently beneficial, either because the immune system is catching up or because of competition between equivalent escapes.

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arXiv2013

Genetic draft, selective interference, and population genetics of rapid adaptation

To learn about the past from a sample of genomic sequences, one needs to understand how evolutionary processes shape genetic diversity. Most population genetic inference is based on frameworks assuming adaptive evolution is rare. But if positive selection operates on many loci simultaneously, as has recently been suggested for many species including animals such as flies, a different approach is necessary. In this review, I discuss recent progress in characterizing and understanding evolution in rapidly adapting populations where random associations of mutations with genetic backgrounds of different fitness, i.e., genetic draft, dominate over genetic drift. As a result, neutral genetic diversity depends weakly on population size, but strongly on the rate of adaptation or more generally the variance in fitness. Coalescent processes with multiple mergers, rather than Kingman's coalescent, are appropriate genealogical models for rapidly adapting populations with important implications for population genetic inference.

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arXiv2012

Genealogies of rapidly adapting populations

The genetic diversity of a species is shaped by its recent evolutionary history and can be used to infer demographic events or selective sweeps. Most inference methods are based on the null hypothesis that natural selection is a weak or infrequent evolutionary force. However, many species, particularly pathogens, are under continuous pressure to adapt in response to changing environments. A statistical framework for inference from diversity data of such populations is currently lacking. Toward this goal, we explore the properties of genealogies in a model of continual adaptation in asexual populations. We show that lineages trace back to a small pool of highly fit ancestors, in which almost simultaneous coalescence of more than two lineages frequently occurs. While such multiple mergers are unlikely under the neutral coalescent, they create a unique genetic footprint in adapting populations. The site frequency spectrum of derived neutral alleles, for example, is non-monotonic and has a peak at high frequencies, whereas Tajima's D becomes more and more negative with increasing sample size. Since multiple merger coalescents emerge in many models of rapid adaptation, we argue that they should be considered as a null-model for adapting populations.

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arXiv2012

FFPopSim: An efficient forward simulation package for the evolution of large populations

The analysis of the evolutionary dynamics of a population with many polymorphic loci is challenging since a large number of possible genotypes needs to be tracked. In the absence of analytical solutions, forward computer simulations are an important tool in multi-locus population genetics. The run time of standard algorithms to simulate sexual populations increases as 8^L with the number L of loci, or with the square of the population size N. We have developed algorithms that allow to simulate large populations with a run-time that scales as 3^L. The algorithm is based on an analog of the Fast-Fourier Transform (FFT) and allows for arbitrary fitness functions (i.e. any epistasis) and genetic maps. The algorithm is implemented as a collection of C++ classes and a Python interface.

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arXiv2012

Mathematical modeling of escape of HIV from cytotoxic T lymphocyte responses

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1 or simply HIV) induces a persistent infection, which in the absence of treatment leads to AIDS and death in almost all infected individuals. HIV infection elicits a vigorous immune response starting about 2-3 weeks post infection that can lower the amount of virus in the body, but which cannot eradicate the virus. How HIV establishes a chronic infection in the face of a strong immune response remains poorly understood. It has been shown that HIV is able to rapidly change its proteins via mutation to evade recognition by virus-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). Typically, an HIV-infected patient will generate 4-12 CTL responses specific for parts of viral proteins called epitopes. Such CTL responses lead to strong selective pressure to change the viral sequences encoding these epitopes so as to avoid CTL recognition. Here we review experimental data on HIV evolution in response to CTL pressure, mathematical models developed to explain this evolution, and highlight problems associated with the data and previous modeling efforts. We show that estimates of the strength of the epitope-specific CTL response depend on the method used to fit models to experimental data and on the assumptions made regarding how mutants are generated during infection. We illustrate that allowing CTL responses to decay over time may improve the fit to experimental data and provides higher estimates of the killing efficacy of HIV-specific CTLs. We also propose a novel method for simultaneously estimating the killing efficacy of multiple CTL populations specific for different epitopes of HIV using stochastic simulations. Lastly, we show that current estimates of the efficacy at which HIV-specific CTLs clear virus-infected cells can be improved by more frequent sampling of viral sequences and by combining data on sequence evolution with experimentally measured CTL dynamics.

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arXiv2012

Emergence of clones in sexual populations

In sexual population, recombination reshuffles genetic variation and produces novel combinations of existing alleles, while selection amplifies the fittest genotypes in the population. If recombination is more rapid than selection, populations consist of a diverse mixture of many genotypes, as is observed in many populations. In the opposite regime, which is realized for example in the facultatively sexual populations that outcross in only a fraction of reproductive cycles, selection can amplify individual genotypes into large clones. Such clones emerge when the fitness advantage of some of the genotypes is large enough that they grow to a significant fraction of the population despite being broken down by recombination. The occurrence of this "clonal condensation" depends, in addition to the outcrossing rate, on the heritability of fitness. Clonal condensation leads to a strong genetic heterogeneity of the population which is not adequately described by traditional population genetics measures, such as Linkage Disequilibrium. Here we point out the similarity between clonal condensation and the freezing transition in the Random Energy Model of spin glasses. Guided by this analogy we explicitly calculate the probability, Y, that two individuals are genetically identical as a function of the key parameters of the model. While Y is the analog of the spin-glass order parameter, it is also closely related to rate of coalescence in population genetics: Two individuals that are part of the same clone have a recent common ancestor.

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arXiv2012

Estimating the Strength of Selective Sweeps from Deep Population Diversity Data

Selective sweeps are typically associated with a local reduction of genetic diversity around the adaptive site. However, selective sweeps can also quickly carry neutral mutations to observable population frequencies if they arise early in a sweep and hitchhike with the adaptive allele. We show that the interplay between mutation and exponential amplification through hitchhiking results in a characteristic frequency spectrum of the resulting novel haplotype variation that depends only on the ratio of the mutation rate and the selection coefficient of the sweep. Based on this result, we develop an estimator for the selection coefficient driving a sweep. Since this estimator utilizes the novel variation arising from mutations during a sweep, it does not rely on preexisting variation and can also be applied to loci that lack recombination. Compared with standard approaches that infer selection coefficients from the size of dips in genetic diversity around the adaptive site, our estimator requires much shorter sequences but sampled at high population depth in order to capture low-frequency variants; given such data, it consistently outperforms standard approaches. We investigate analytically and numerically how the accuracy of our estimator is affected by the decay of the sweep pattern over time as a consequence of random genetic drift and discuss potential effects of recombination, soft sweeps, and demography. As an example for its use, we apply our estimator to deep sequencing data from HIV populations.

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arXiv2012

Fluctuations of fitness distributions and the rate of Muller's ratchet

The accumulation of deleterious mutations is driven by rare fluctuations which lead to the loss of all mutation free individuals, a process known as Muller's ratchet. Even though Muller's ratchet is a paradigmatic process in population genetics, a quantitative understanding of its rate is still lacking. The difficulty lies in the nontrivial nature of fluctuations in the fitness distribution which control the rate of extinction of the fittest genotype. We address this problem using the simple but classic model of mutation selection balance with deleterious mutations all having the same effect on fitness. We show analytically how fluctuations among the fittest individuals propagate to individuals of lower fitness and have a dramatically amplified effects on the bulk of the population at a later time. If a reduction in the size of the fittest class reduces the mean fitness only after a delay, selection opposing this reduction is also delayed. This delayed restoring force speeds up Muller's ratchet. We show how the delayed response can be accounted for using a path integral formulation of the stochastic dynamics and provide an expression for the rate of the ratchet that is accurate across a broad range of parameters.

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arXiv2011

Rare beneficial mutations can halt Muller's ratchet

The vast majority of mutations are deleterious, and are eliminated by purifying selection. Yet in finite asexual populations, purifying selection cannot completely prevent the accumulation of deleterious mutations due to Muller's ratchet: once lost by stochastic drift, the most-fit class of genotypes is lost forever. If deleterious mutations are weakly selected, Muller's ratchet turns into a mutational "meltdown" leading to a rapid degradation of population fitness. Evidently, the long term stability of an asexual population requires an influx of beneficial mutations that continuously compensate for the accumulation of the weakly deleterious ones. Here we propose that the stable evolutionary state of a population in a static environment is a dynamic mutation-selection balance, where accumulation of deleterious mutations is on average offset by the influx of beneficial mutations. We argue that this state exists for any population size N and mutation rate $U$. Assuming that beneficial and deleterious mutations have the same fitness effect s, we calculate the fraction of beneficial mutations, ε, that maintains the balanced state. We find that a surprisingly low εsuffices to maintain stability, even in small populations in the face of high mutation rates and weak selection. This may explain the maintenance of mitochondria and other asexual genomes, and has implications for the expected statistics of genetic diversity in these populations.

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