SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Richard Bao

Publications and source records attributed to Richard Bao.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Correcting a learned physical invariant improves world-model rollouts

World models can predict video without learning dynamics that they reliably preserve. We test whether a frozen DreamerV3 trained only on pendulum video learns a scalar that its own latent transition treats as approximately conserved. A label-free search recovers the same energy-like invariant across independently trained conservative models, while the same procedure finds no comparable invariant in matched damped models. During autonomous rollouts, this quantity drifts. Projecting the latent state back toward its initial level set reduces rollout error in all three conservative models, whereas matched random constraints usually increase it. These results distinguish a dynamically meaningful invariant from a merely decodable correlate and reveal a concrete failure mode: a world model can learn a physical constraint from pixels yet violate that constraint when it imagines forward.

cs.AI

PECAIQR: A Model for Infectious Disease Applied to the Covid-19 Epidemic

The Covid-19 pandemic has made clear the need to improve modern multivariate time-series forecasting models. Current state of the art predictions of future daily deaths and, especially, hospital resource usage have confidence intervals that are unacceptably wide. Policy makers and hospitals require accurate forecasts to make informed decisions on passing legislation and allocating resources. We used US county-level data on daily deaths and population statistics to forecast future deaths. We extended the SIR epidemiological model to a novel model we call the PECAIQR model. It adds several new variables and parameters to the naive SIR model by taking into account the ramifications of the partial quarantining implemented in the US. We fitted data to the model parameters with numerical integration. Because of the fit degeneracy in parameter space and non-constant nature of the parameters, we developed several methods to optimize our fit, such as training on the data tail and training on specific policy regimes. We use cross-validation to tune our hyper parameters at the county level and generate a CDF for future daily deaths. For predictions made from training data up to May 25th, we consistently obtained an averaged pinball loss score of 0.096 on a 14 day forecast. We finally present examples of possible avenues for utility from our model. We generate longer-time horizon predictions over various 1-month windows in the past, forecast how many medical resources such as ventilators and ICU beds will be needed in counties, and evaluate the efficacy of our model in other countries.

q-bio.PE