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Richard Baraniuk

Publications and source records attributed to Richard Baraniuk.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

When AI Writes, Who Gets Cited? Evidence of Citation Monoculture Across Language Models

As language models move from drafting prose to running literature-search agents with tool calls, fabricated references are becoming easier to catch and constrain. The harder failure begins after every candidate is real: different models may still select the same narrow subset, producing citation monoculture without any single citation being wrong. We isolate this effect on 120 real papers. Eleven models from three vendors choose at most ten papers from uniformly random panels of thirty, with real titles and abstracts but fabricated authors, reassigned years, and hidden venues and citation counts. Each run is compared with indifferent selection on the same panel and realized budget. All eleven models concentrate sharply: the top decile receives 23.3-30.2% of citations against 15.6% under the null, one component explains 68-73% of variation across their preference maps, and cross-vendor agreement nearly matches within-vendor agreement. Formalizing the task as fixed-budget subset selection, we turn these patterns into identifiable mechanisms: an exchangeability bound rejects a mapless selector for every model, a spectral decomposition explains why the best cross-fitted mixture still retains 55% of the excess, and a rarity theorem predicts the recursive competition effect we verify within panels. Controlled paraphrase, content-slot crossover, and design resampling attribute about 90% of GPT-5 mini's map variance to paper content. Eight domain experts selecting from the same blinded panels under the same cap show no comparable shared preference, while model concentration persists in selection-only mode. Even when every reference is real and every paper is equally visible, current language models impose a common content-level filter on scientific attention. Equalizing retrieval or mixing vendors is therefore insufficient; the shared preference map itself must be changed.

cs.DL↗
arXiv2026

The Geometric Structure of Models Learning Sparse Data

The manifold hypothesis (MH) is often used to explain how machine learning can overcome the curse of dimensionality. However, the MH is only applicable in regimes where the training data provides a sufficiently dense sample of the underlying low-dimensional data manifold, or where such a low-dimensional manifold is conceivably present. We describe the regimes where the MH is not applicable as sparse. In this paper, we demonstrate that models succeed in the sparse regime by exploiting a highly structured local geometry, a property we formalize as normal alignment. We prove that normal-aligned classifiers -- whose input-output Jacobians are rank-one and align perfectly with the training data -- minimize the training objective under norm constraints and achieve maximal local robustness under a non-zero Jacobian constraint. For continuous piecewise-affine deep networks, normal alignment manifests geometrically as centroid alignment within the network's induced power diagram partition and results from the feature-learning regime. Motivated by these theoretical insights, we introduce GrokAlign, a regularization strategy that actively induces normal alignment. We demonstrate that GrokAlign significantly accelerates the training dynamics of deep networks relevant to the grokking phenomenon. Furthermore, we apply the principle of normal alignment to Recursive Feature Machines (RFMs) to introduce Recursive Feature Alignment Machines (RFAMs). We show that RFAMs exhibit greater adversarial robustness compared to RFMs when trained on tabular data.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

The Linear Centroids Hypothesis: Features as Directions Learned by Local Experts

The Linear Representation Hypothesis (LRH) identifies features of a trained deep network (DN) as linear directions in the activation spaces, i.e., output spaces of intermediate layers. This characterization decouples the input-output maps learned by a DN from the organization of feature directions in its activation spaces. We introduce the Linear Centroids Hypothesis (LCH), which instead identifies features with linear directions among a DN's centroid spaces -- where any vector denotes a centroid or summary of a local affine expert characterizing the learned input-output maps of the DN exactly (e.g., for piecewise-affine DNs) or approximately (e.g., for smooth DNs like transformers). We show that replacing intermediate activations with centroids yields a functional drop-in alternative for standard interpretability tools. Empirically, this change yields sparser, more downstream-useful feature dictionaries on DINO ViTs, suppresses spurious directions on a controlled task, recovers interpretable circuits in GPT2-Large, and produces faithful gradient-based saliency maps. LCH unifies dictionaries, probing, circuits, and saliency maps into a single geometric object grounded in the network's input-output map -- making interpretability mechanistic by construction rather than post hoc. Code to study the LCH https://github.com/ThomasWalker1/LinearCentroidsHypothesis .

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Stable and Privacy-Preserving Synthetic Educational Data with Empirical Marginals: A Copula-Based Approach

To advance Educational Data Mining (EDM) within strict privacy-protecting regulatory frameworks, researchers must develop methods that enable data-driven analysis while protecting sensitive student information. Synthetic data generation is one such approach, enabling the release of statistically generated samples instead of real student records; however, existing deep learning and parametric generators often distort marginal distributions and degrade under iterative regeneration, leading to distribution drift and progressive loss of distributional support that compromise reliability. In response, we introduce the Non-Parametric Gaussian Copula (NPGC), a plug-and-play synthesis method that replaces deep learning and parametric optimization with empirical statistical anchoring to preserve the observed marginal distributions while modeling dependencies through a copula framework. NPGC integrates Differential Privacy (DP) at both the marginal and correlation levels, supports heterogeneous variable types, and treats missing data as an explicit state to retain informative absence patterns. We evaluate NPGC against deep learning and parametric baselines on five benchmark datasets and demonstrate that it remains stable across multiple regeneration cycles and achieves competitive downstream performance at substantially lower computational cost. We further validate NPGC through deployment in a real-world online learning platform, demonstrating its practicality for privacy-preserving research.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Misconception Acquisition Dynamics in Large Language Models

Effective educational AI depends on modeling student misconceptions. Such models enable realistic learner simulation and diagnostic, adaptive tutoring. However, instruction-tuning large language models on student responses containing misconception errors can degrade reasoning abilities, creating a tension between faithful misconception modeling and preserving correct reasoning in other contexts. To support both learner simulation and tutoring, we study two misconception-aware models: the Novice Student Misconception Model, trained to acquire a single misconception for simulating an individual student, and the Expert Tutor Misconception Model, trained on multiple misconceptions to capture the error patterns a tutor encounters across students. To study the misconception acquisition dynamics of both models, we develop MalAlgoLib, a library that generates algebra problems with correct solution traces and misconception-specific erroneous traces. Our experiments across three LLMs reveal that the student and the tutor model exhibit fundamentally different misconception acquisition dynamics. For the student model, a single misconception is not learned as a context-specific behavior. Models overapply it across problems, degrading correct-solving accuracy unless training includes correct examples to enforce boundaries. In contrast, the tutor model can learn multiple misconceptions jointly without sacrificing correct-solving accuracy. Critically, intermediate reasoning steps are the bottleneck. With final-answer supervision alone, models cannot learn where error enters the solution, so neither the student model nor the tutor model acquires misconceptions regardless of data size. Together, these results, enabled by MalAlgoLib, provide an interpretable account of misconception acquisition under instruction tuning and guidance for training misconception-aware LLMs while preserving correct reasoning.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2026

Circuit Complexity of Hierarchical Knowledge Tracing and Implications for Log-Precision Transformers

Knowledge tracing models mastery over interconnected concepts, often organized by prerequisites. We analyze hierarchical prerequisite propagation through a circuit-complexity lens to clarify what is provable about transformer-style computation on deep concept hierarchies. Using recent results that log-precision transformers lie in logspace-uniform $\mathsf{TC}^0$, we formalize prerequisite-tree tasks including recursive-majority mastery propagation. Unconditionally, recursive-majority propagation lies in $\mathsf{NC}^1$ via $O(\log n)$-depth bounded-fanin circuits, while separating it from uniform $\mathsf{TC}^0$ would require major progress on open lower bounds. Under a monotonicity restriction, we obtain an unconditional barrier: alternating ALL/ANY prerequisite trees yield a strict depth hierarchy for \emph{monotone} threshold circuits. Empirically, transformer encoders trained on recursive-majority trees converge to permutation-invariant shortcuts; explicit structure alone does not prevent this, but auxiliary supervision on intermediate subtrees elicits structure-dependent computation and achieves near-perfect accuracy at depths 3--4. These findings motivate structure-aware objectives and iterative mechanisms for prerequisite-sensitive knowledge tracing on deep hierarchies.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Scalable Generation and Validation of Isomorphic Physics Problems with GenAI

Traditional synchronous STEM assessments face growing challenges including accessibility barriers, security concerns from resource-sharing platforms, and limited comparability across institutions. We present a framework for generating and evaluating large-scale isomorphic physics problem banks using Generative AI to enable asynchronous, multi-attempt assessments. Isomorphic problems test identical concepts through varied surface features and contexts, providing richer variation than conventional parameterized questions while maintaining consistent difficulty. Our generation framework employs prompt chaining and tool use to achieve precise control over structural variations (numeric values, spatial relations) alongside diverse contextual variations. For pre-deployment validation, we evaluate generated items using 17 open-source language models (LMs) (0.6B-32B) and compare against actual student performance (N>200) across three midterm exams. Results show that 73% of deployed banks achieve statistically homogeneous difficulty, and LMs pattern correlate strongly with student performance (Pearson's $\rho$ up to 0.594). Additionally, LMs successfully identify problematic variants, such as ambiguous problem texts. Model scale also proves critical for effective validation, where extremely small (<4B) and large (>14B) models exhibit floor and ceiling effects respectively, making mid-sized models optimal for detecting difficulty outliers.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2026

MetaCLASS: Metacognitive Coaching for Learning with Adaptive Self-regulation Support

Large language models can generate fluent explanations, but effective tutoring requires supporting the learner's thought process, not just delivering content. Metacognitive tutoring targets this gap by prompting planning, monitoring, debugging, and evaluation, and crucially, deciding when to be active versus minimally present, based on learner signals and trajectory. We introduce MetaCLASS, a learning-science grounded framework that formulates metacognitive tutoring as move selection over 11 interpretable actions aligned to self-regulated learning processes. MetaCLASS uses a two-phase framework that first plans a pedagogical trajectory conditioned on learner profiles (calibration, help-seeking) and then generates natural dialogue consistent with that plan. This yields a dataset of 1,015 conversations (7,711 turns) annotated with turn-level metacognitive labels, and validated for pedagogical contingency and trajectory adherence. We benchmark nine LLMs on predicting the next coach move given the problem and dialogue context. The best model achieves only 43.2\% accuracy, and models exhibit compulsive intervention bias: in turns where effective metacognitive tutoring requires silent (41.7\% of cases), models predict `no intervention' only 4.2\% of the time, while severely over-predicting high-intervention moves. These results show that traditional content-based tutoring ability does not translate to metacognitive tutoring competence, positioning MetaCLASS as a testbed for developing intelligent tutors that promote self-regulated learning.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2026

Learning Context: A Unified Framework and Roadmap for Context-Aware AI in Education

We introduce a unified Learning Context (LC) framework designed to transition AI-based education from context-blind mimicry to a principled, holistic understanding of the learner. This white paper provides a multidisciplinary roadmap for making teaching and learning systems context-aware by encoding cognitive, affective, and sociocultural factors over the short, medium, and long term. To realize this vision, we outline concrete steps to operationalize LC theory into an interoperable computational data structure. By leveraging the Model Context Protocol (MCP), we will enable a wide range of AI tools to "warm-start" with durable context and achieve continual, long-term personalization. Finally, we detail our particular LC implementation strategy through the OpenStax digital learning platform ecosystem and SafeInsights R&D infrastructure. Using OpenStax's national reach, we are embedding the LC into authentic educational settings to support millions of learners. All research and pedagogical interventions are conducted within SafeInsights' privacy-preserving data enclaves, ensuring a privacy-first implementation that maintains high ethical standards while reducing equity gaps nationwide.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2025

GrokAlign: Geometric Characterisation and Acceleration of Grokking

A key challenge for the machine learning community is to understand and accelerate the training dynamics of deep networks that lead to delayed generalisation and emergent robustness to input perturbations, also known as grokking. Prior work has associated phenomena like delayed generalisation with the transition of a deep network from a linear to a feature learning regime, and emergent robustness with changes to the network's functional geometry, in particular the arrangement of the so-called linear regions in deep networks employing continuous piecewise affine nonlinearities. Here, we explain how grokking is realised in the Jacobian of a deep network and demonstrate that aligning a network's Jacobians with the training data (in the sense of cosine similarity) ensures grokking under a low-rank Jacobian assumption. Our results provide a strong theoretical motivation for the use of Jacobian regularisation in optimizing deep networks -- a method we introduce as GrokAlign -- which we show empirically to induce grokking much sooner than more conventional regularizers like weight decay. Moreover, we introduce centroid alignment as a tractable and interpretable simplification of Jacobian alignment that effectively identifies and tracks the stages of deep network training dynamics. Accompanying webpage (https://thomaswalker1.github.io/blog/grokalign.html) and code (https://github.com/ThomasWalker1/grokalign).

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Training LLM-based Tutors to Improve Student Learning Outcomes in Dialogues

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to scale up personalized tutoring through large language models (LLMs). Recent AI tutors are adapted for the tutoring task by training or prompting LLMs to follow effective pedagogical principles, though they are not trained to maximize student learning throughout the course of a dialogue. Therefore, they may engage with students in a suboptimal way. We address this limitation by introducing an approach to train LLMs to generate tutor utterances that maximize the likelihood of student correctness, while still encouraging the model to follow good pedagogical practice. Specifically, we generate a set of candidate tutor utterances and score them using (1) an LLM-based student model to predict the chance of correct student responses and (2) a pedagogical rubric evaluated by GPT-4o. We then use the resulting data to train an open-source LLM, Llama 3.1 8B, using direct preference optimization. We show that tutor utterances generated by our model lead to significantly higher chances of correct student responses while maintaining the pedagogical quality of GPT-4o. We also conduct qualitative analyses and a human evaluation to demonstrate that our model generates high quality tutor utterances.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2025

CLEAR-3K: Assessing Causal Explanatory Capabilities in Language Models

We introduce CLEAR-3K, a dataset of 3,000 assertion-reasoning questions designed to evaluate whether language models can determine if one statement causally explains another. Each question present an assertion-reason pair and challenge language models to distinguish between semantic relatedness and genuine causal explanatory relationships. Through comprehensive evaluation of 21 state-of-the-art language models (ranging from 0.5B to 72B parameters), we identify two fundamental findings. First, language models frequently confuse semantic similarity with causality, relying on lexical and semantic overlap instead of inferring actual causal explanatory relationships. Second, as parameter size increases, models tend to shift from being overly skeptical about causal relationships to being excessively permissive in accepting them. Despite this shift, performance measured by the Matthews Correlation Coefficient plateaus at just 0.55, even for the best-performing models.Hence, CLEAR-3K provides a crucial benchmark for developing and evaluating genuine causal reasoning in language models, which is an essential capability for applications that require accurate assessment of causal relationships.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2025

Max-Affine Spline Insights Into Deep Network Pruning

In this paper, we study the importance of pruning in Deep Networks (DNs) and the yin & yang relationship between (1) pruning highly overparametrized DNs that have been trained from random initialization and (2) training small DNs that have been "cleverly" initialized. As in most cases practitioners can only resort to random initialization, there is a strong need to develop a grounded understanding of DN pruning. Current literature remains largely empirical, lacking a theoretical understanding of how pruning affects DNs' decision boundary, how to interpret pruning, and how to design corresponding principled pruning techniques. To tackle those questions, we propose to employ recent advances in the theoretical analysis of Continuous Piecewise Affine (CPA) DNs. From this perspective, we will be able to detect the early-bird (EB) ticket phenomenon, provide interpretability into current pruning techniques, and develop a principled pruning strategy. In each step of our study, we conduct extensive experiments supporting our claims and results; while our main goal is to enhance the current understanding towards DN pruning instead of developing a new pruning method, our spline pruning criteria in terms of layerwise and global pruning is on par with or even outperforms state-of-the-art pruning methods.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Atomic Learning Objectives Labeling: A High-Resolution Approach for Physics Education

This paper introduces a novel approach to create a high-resolution "map" for physics learning: an "atomic" learning objectives (LOs) system designed to capture detailed cognitive processes and concepts required for problem solving in a college-level introductory physics course. Our method leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) for automated labeling of physics questions and introduces a comprehensive set of metrics to evaluate the quality of the labeling outcomes. The atomic LO system, covering nine chapters of an introductory physics course, uses a "subject-verb-object'' structure to represent specific cognitive processes. We apply this system to 131 questions from expert-curated question banks and the OpenStax University Physics textbook. Each question is labeled with 1-8 atomic LOs across three chapters. Through extensive experiments using various prompting strategies and LLMs, we compare automated LOs labeling results against human expert labeling. Our analysis reveals both the strengths and limitations of LLMs, providing insight into LLMs reasoning processes for labeling LOs and identifying areas for improvement in LOs system design. Our work contributes to the field of learning analytics by proposing a more granular approach to mapping learning objectives with questions. Our findings have significant implications for the development of intelligent tutoring systems and personalized learning pathways in STEM education, paving the way for more effective "learning GPS'' systems.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2025

Mitigating over-exploration in latent space optimization using LES

We develop Latent Exploration Score (LES) to mitigate over-exploration in Latent Space Optimization (LSO), a popular method for solving black-box discrete optimization problems. LSO utilizes continuous optimization within the latent space of a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) and is known to be susceptible to over-exploration, which manifests in unrealistic solutions that reduce its practicality. LES leverages the trained decoder's approximation of the data distribution, and can be employed with any VAE decoder - including pretrained ones - without additional training, architectural changes or access to the training data. Our evaluation across five LSO benchmark tasks and twenty-two VAE models demonstrates that LES always enhances the quality of the solutions while maintaining high objective values, leading to improvements over existing solutions in most cases. We believe that new avenues to LSO will be opened by LES' ability to identify out of distribution areas, differentiability, and computational tractability. Open source code for LES is available at https://github.com/OmerRonen/les.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

On the Geometry of Deep Learning

In this paper, we overview one promising avenue of progress at the mathematical foundation of deep learning: the connection between deep networks and function approximation by affine splines (continuous piecewise linear functions in multiple dimensions). In particular, we will overview work over the past decade on understanding certain geometrical properties of a deep network's affine spline mapping, in particular how it tessellates its input space. As we will see, the affine spline connection and geometrical viewpoint provide a powerful portal through which to view, analyze, and improve the inner workings of a deep network.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

MalAlgoQA: Pedagogical Evaluation of Counterfactual Reasoning in Large Language Models and Implications for AI in Education

This paper introduces MalAlgoQA, a novel dataset designed to evaluate the counterfactual reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) through a pedagogical approach. The dataset comprises mathematics and reading comprehension questions, each accompanied by four answer choices and their corresponding rationales. At the heart of MalAlgoQA are ``malgorithms'' - rationales behind incorrect answer choices that represent flawed yet logically coherent reasoning paths. These malgorithms serve as counterfactual scenarios, allowing us to assess an LLM's ability to identify and analyze flawed reasoning patterns. We propose the Malgorithm Identification task, where LLMs are assessed based on their ability to identify corresponding malgorithm given an incorrect answer choice. To evaluate the model performance, we introduce two metrics: Algorithm Identification Accuracy (AIA) for correct answer rationale identification, and Malgorithm Identification Accuracy (MIA) for incorrect answer rationale identification. Our experiments reveal that state-of-the-art LLMs exhibit significant performance drops in MIA compared to AIA, highlighting the challenges in counterfactual reasoning. Surprisingly, we find that the chain-of-thought prompting technique not only fails to consistently enhance MIA but can sometimes lead to underperformance compared to simple prompting. These findings have important implications for developing LLMs with improved counterfactual reasoning, particularly relevant for AI-powered tutoring systems, where identifying and addressing student misconceptions is essential. MalAlgoQA dataset is available \href{https://github.com/luffycodes/MalAlgoQA-Dataset}{here}.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2024

Self-Improving Diffusion Models with Synthetic Data

The artificial intelligence (AI) world is running out of real data for training increasingly large generative models, resulting in accelerating pressure to train on synthetic data. Unfortunately, training new generative models with synthetic data from current or past generation models creates an autophagous (self-consuming) loop that degrades the quality and/or diversity of the synthetic data in what has been termed model autophagy disorder (MAD) and model collapse. Current thinking around model autophagy recommends that synthetic data is to be avoided for model training lest the system deteriorate into MADness. In this paper, we take a different tack that treats synthetic data differently from real data. Self-IMproving diffusion models with Synthetic data (SIMS) is a new training concept for diffusion models that uses self-synthesized data to provide negative guidance during the generation process to steer a model's generative process away from the non-ideal synthetic data manifold and towards the real data distribution. We demonstrate that SIMS is capable of self-improvement; it establishes new records based on the Fréchet inception distance (FID) metric for CIFAR-10 and ImageNet-64 generation and achieves competitive results on FFHQ-64 and ImageNet-512. Moreover, SIMS is, to the best of our knowledge, the first prophylactic generative AI algorithm that can be iteratively trained on self-generated synthetic data without going MAD. As a bonus, SIMS can adjust a diffusion model's synthetic data distribution to match any desired in-domain target distribution to help mitigate biases and ensure fairness.

cs.LG↗