arXiv subjects

Richard Linares

Publications and source records attributed to Richard Linares.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Poised to Rocket: Modeling the Environmental Impact of LEO Satellite Constellations

The proliferation of satellite megaconstellations in low Earth orbit (LEO) represents a significant advancement in global broadband connectivity. However, we urgently need to understand the potential environmental impacts, particularly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with these constellations. This study addresses a critical gap in modeling current and future GHG emissions by developing a comprehensive open-source life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, applied to 10 launch vehicles and 15 megaconstellations. Our analysis reveals that the production of launch vehicles and propellant combustion during launch events contribute most significantly to overall GHG emissions, accounting for 72.6% of life cycle emissions. Among the rockets analyzed, reusable vehicles like Falcon-9 and Starship demonstrate 95.4% lower production emissions compared to non-reusable alternatives, highlighting the environmental benefits of reusability in space technology. The findings underscore the importance of launch vehicle and satellite design choices to minimize potential environmental impacts. The Open-source Rocket and Constellation Lifecycle Emissions (ORACLE) repository is freely available and aims to facilitate further research in this field. This study provides a critical baseline for policymakers and industry stakeholders to develop strategies for reducing the carbon footprint of the space industry, especially satellite megaconstellations.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

Increasing Determinism of All-vs-all Orbital Evolution Simulators

All-vs-all orbital evolutionary simulations for the low Earth orbit (LEO) simulate the long term evolution of the LEO environment. Although these simulations typically offer the highest fidelity, they are also highly computationally intensive. One factor that effectively reduces the efficiency of the approach is that all-vs-all approaches are stochastic and the distribution of the output has large variance. This paper introduces a new, quasi-deterministic all-vs-all simulator, whose variance is greatly reduced compared to traditional methods. The proposed approach virtually simulates collisions happening everywhere and all the time; however, their effect is appropriately reduced to maintain an unbiased estimate of the mean. Additional techniques are used to augment the proposed approach and obtain very precise estimates of any number of standard deviations from the mean, for the evaluation of the Value at Risk (VaR) with a single, low-variance run. Depending on the settings, results show that the variance in total number of debris generated can be reduced by a factor that averages 1,500, while increasing the computational cost by a factor of less than 1.5. Variance can be reduced even more when computing the VaR, albeit a no longer negligible bias is introduced. Low-variance results enable several key applications, such as sensitivity analysis, sustainability assessment of small missions, and fast evaluation of collision risk induced by existing debris. Additionally, rapid computations of the VaR can improve the evaluation of policy robustness, and include confidence intervals in risk assessment.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Fine-Tuned Language Models as Space Systems Controllers

Large language models (LLMs), or foundation models (FMs), are pretrained transformers that coherently complete sentences auto-regressively. In this paper, we show that LLMs can control simplified space systems after some additional training, called fine-tuning. We look at relatively small language models, ranging between 7 and 13 billion parameters. We focus on four problems: a three-dimensional spring toy problem, low-thrust orbit transfer, low-thrust cislunar control, and powered descent guidance. The fine-tuned LLMs are capable of controlling systems by generating sufficiently accurate outputs that are multi-dimensional vectors with up to 10 significant digits. We show that for several problems the amount of data required to perform fine-tuning is smaller than what is generally required of traditional deep neural networks (DNNs), and that fine-tuned LLMs are good at generalizing outside of the training dataset. Further, the same LLM can be fine-tuned with data from different problems, with only minor performance degradation with respect to LLMs trained for a single application. This work is intended as a first step towards the development of a general space systems controller.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Visual Language Models as Operator Agents in the Space Domain

This paper explores the application of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) as operator agents in the space domain, focusing on both software and hardware operational paradigms. Building on advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) and their multimodal extensions, we investigate how VLMs can enhance autonomous control and decision-making in space missions. In the software context, we employ VLMs within the Kerbal Space Program Differential Games (KSPDG) simulation environment, enabling the agent to interpret visual screenshots of the graphical user interface to perform complex orbital maneuvers. In the hardware context, we integrate VLMs with robotic systems equipped with cameras to inspect and diagnose physical space objects, such as satellites. Our results demonstrate that VLMs can effectively process visual and textual data to generate contextually appropriate actions, competing with traditional methods and non-multimodal LLMs in simulation tasks, and showing promise in real-world applications.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Diffusion Policies for Generative Modeling of Spacecraft Trajectories

Machine learning has demonstrated remarkable promise for solving the trajectory generation problem and in paving the way for online use of trajectory optimization for resource-constrained spacecraft. However, a key shortcoming in current machine learning-based methods for trajectory generation is that they require large datasets and even small changes to the original trajectory design requirements necessitate retraining new models to learn the parameter-to-solution mapping. In this work, we leverage compositional diffusion modeling to efficiently adapt out-of-distribution data and problem variations in a few-shot framework for 6 degree-of-freedom (DoF) powered descent trajectory generation. Unlike traditional deep learning methods that can only learn the underlying structure of one specific trajectory optimization problem, diffusion models are a powerful generative modeling framework that represents the solution as a probability density function (PDF) and this allows for the composition of PDFs encompassing a variety of trajectory design specifications and constraints. We demonstrate the capability of compositional diffusion models for inference-time 6 DoF minimum-fuel landing site selection and composable constraint representations. Using these samples as initial guesses for 6 DoF powered descent guidance enables dynamically feasible and computationally efficient trajectory generation.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Tight Constraint Prediction of Six-Degree-of-Freedom Transformer-based Powered Descent Guidance

This work introduces Transformer-based Successive Convexification (T-SCvx), an extension of Transformer-based Powered Descent Guidance (T-PDG), generalizable for efficient six-degree-of-freedom (DoF) fuel-optimal powered descent trajectory generation. Our approach significantly enhances the sample efficiency and solution quality for nonconvex-powered descent guidance by employing a rotation invariant transformation of the sampled dataset. T-PDG was previously applied to the 3-DoF minimum fuel powered descent guidance problem, improving solution times by up to an order of magnitude compared to lossless convexification (LCvx). By learning to predict the set of tight or active constraints at the optimal control problem's solution, Transformer-based Successive Convexification (T-SCvx) creates the minimal reduced-size problem initialized with only the tight constraints, then uses the solution of this reduced problem to warm-start the direct optimization solver. 6-DoF powered descent guidance is known to be challenging to solve quickly and reliably due to the nonlinear and non-convex nature of the problem, the discretization scheme heavily influencing solution validity, and reference trajectory initialization determining algorithm convergence or divergence. Our contributions in this work address these challenges by extending T-PDG to learn the set of tight constraints for the successive convexification (SCvx) formulation of the 6-DoF powered descent guidance problem. In addition to reducing the problem size, feasible and locally optimal reference trajectories are also learned to facilitate convergence from the initial guess. T-SCvx enables onboard computation of real-time guidance trajectories, demonstrated by a 6-DoF Mars powered landing application problem.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

A New Monte-Carlo Model for the Space Environment

This paper introduces a novel Monte Carlo (MC) method to simulate the evolution of the low-earth orbit environment, enhancing the MIT Orbital Capacity Analysis Tool (MOCAT). In recent decades, numerous space environment models have been developed by government agencies and research groups to understand and predict the dynamics of space debris. Our MC approach advances this by simulating the trajectories of space objects and modeling their interactions, such as collisions and explosions. This aids in analyzing the trends of space-object and debris populations. A key innovation of our method is the computational efficiency in orbit propagation, which is crucial for handling potentially large numbers of objects over centuries. We present validation results against the IADC (Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee) study and explore various scenarios, including ones without future launches and those involving the launch of proposed megaconstellations with over 80,000 active payloads. With the improvement in computational efficiencies provided by this work, we can run these new scenarios that predict millions of trackable objects over a 200-year period. The previous state-of-the-art was 400,000 objects over the same period of time. Notably, while fewer megaconstellations are planned for altitudes above 800 km, even minimal failures in post-mission disposal or collision avoidance maneuvers can significantly impact orbital debris accumulation.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

DreamSat: Towards a General 3D Model for Novel View Synthesis of Space Objects

Novel view synthesis (NVS) enables to generate new images of a scene or convert a set of 2D images into a comprehensive 3D model. In the context of Space Domain Awareness, since space is becoming increasingly congested, NVS can accurately map space objects and debris, improving the safety and efficiency of space operations. Similarly, in Rendezvous and Proximity Operations missions, 3D models can provide details about a target object's shape, size, and orientation, allowing for better planning and prediction of the target's behavior. In this work, we explore the generalization abilities of these reconstruction techniques, aiming to avoid the necessity of retraining for each new scene, by presenting a novel approach to 3D spacecraft reconstruction from single-view images, DreamSat, by fine-tuning the Zero123 XL, a state-of-the-art single-view reconstruction model, on a high-quality dataset of 190 high-quality spacecraft models and integrating it into the DreamGaussian framework. We demonstrate consistent improvements in reconstruction quality across multiple metrics, including Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) score (+0.33%), Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR) (+2.53%), Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) (+2.38%), and Learned Perceptual Image Patch Similarity (LPIPS) (+0.16%) on a test set of 30 previously unseen spacecraft images. Our method addresses the lack of domain-specific 3D reconstruction tools in the space industry by leveraging state-of-the-art diffusion models and 3D Gaussian splatting techniques. This approach maintains the efficiency of the DreamGaussian framework while enhancing the accuracy and detail of spacecraft reconstructions. The code for this work can be accessed on GitHub (https://github.com/ARCLab-MIT/space-nvs).

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Compositional Diffusion Models for Powered Descent Trajectory Generation with Flexible Constraints

This work introduces TrajDiffuser, a compositional diffusion-based flexible and concurrent trajectory generator for 6 degrees of freedom powered descent guidance. TrajDiffuser is a statistical model that learns the multi-modal distributions of a dataset of simulated optimal trajectories, each subject to only one or few constraints that may vary for different trajectories. During inference, the trajectory is generated simultaneously over time, providing stable long-horizon planning, and constraints can be composed together, increasing the model's generalizability and decreasing the training data required. The generated trajectory is then used to initialize an optimizer, increasing its robustness and speed.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

Constraint-Informed Learning for Warm Starting Trajectory Optimization

Future spacecraft and surface robotic missions require increasingly capable autonomy stacks for exploring challenging and unstructured domains, and trajectory optimization will be a cornerstone of such autonomy stacks. However, the nonlinear optimization solvers required remain too slow for use on relatively resource-constrained flight-grade computers. In this work, we turn towards amortized optimization, a learning-based technique for accelerating optimization run times, and present TOAST: Trajectory Optimization with Merit Function Warm Starts. Offline, using data collected from a simulation, we train a neural network to learn a mapping to the full primal and dual solutions given the problem parameters. Crucially, we build upon recent results from decision-focused learning and present a set of decision-focused loss functions using the notion of merit functions for optimization problems. We show that training networks with such constraint-informed losses can better encode the structure of the trajectory optimization problem and jointly learn to reconstruct the primal-dual solution while yielding improved constraint satisfaction. Through numerical experiments on a Lunar rover problem and a 3-degrees-of-freedom Mars powered descent guidance problem, we demonstrate that TOAST outperforms benchmark approaches in terms of both computation times and network prediction constraint satisfaction.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

Simulating the Evolution of Lethal Non-Trackable Population and its Effect on LEO Sustainability

The vast majority of the orbital population today is unobservable and untracked because of their small size. These lethal non-trackable objects will only become more numerous as more payloads and debris are launched into orbit and increase the collision rate. In this paper, the long-term effect of collisions is simulated with an efficient Monte-Carlo method to simulate the future LEO environment including lethal non-trackable objects, which is typically ignored due to the large computational resources required. The results show that simulations that do not incorporate lethal non-trackable debris would be omitting a large number of debilitating collisions with active payloads and catastrophic collisions to a smaller effect. This shows the importance of simulating small debris in the long-term evolution of the orbital population, which is often omitted in the literature. This increased debris population and consequentially the risk to orbital payloads diminishes as smaller lethal non-trackable objects are considered. An efficient and validated model is used to simulate these numerous small objects. Several future cases such as launches of registered megaconstellations, improved post-mission disposal rates and no-future launches are explored to understand the effect of the inclusion or exclusion of lethal non-trackable objects.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Fine-tuning LLMs for Autonomous Spacecraft Control: A Case Study Using Kerbal Space Program

Recent trends are emerging in the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) as autonomous agents that take actions based on the content of the user text prompt. This study explores the use of fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) for autonomous spacecraft control, using the Kerbal Space Program Differential Games suite (KSPDG) as a testing environment. Traditional Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches face limitations in this domain due to insufficient simulation capabilities and data. By leveraging LLMs, specifically fine-tuning models like GPT-3.5 and LLaMA, we demonstrate how these models can effectively control spacecraft using language-based inputs and outputs. Our approach integrates real-time mission telemetry into textual prompts processed by the LLM, which then generate control actions via an agent. The results open a discussion about the potential of LLMs for space operations beyond their nominal use for text-related tasks. Future work aims to expand this methodology to other space control tasks and evaluate the performance of different LLM families. The code is available at this URL: \texttt{https://github.com/ARCLab-MIT/kspdg}.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Enhancing Solar Driver Forecasting with Multivariate Transformers

In this work, we develop a comprehensive framework for F10.7, S10.7, M10.7, and Y10.7 solar driver forecasting with a time series Transformer (PatchTST). To ensure an equal representation of high and low levels of solar activity, we construct a custom loss function to weight samples based on the distance between the solar driver's historical distribution and the training set. The solar driver forecasting framework includes an 18-day lookback window and forecasts 6 days into the future. When benchmarked against the Space Environment Technologies (SET) dataset, our model consistently produces forecasts with a lower standard mean error in nearly all cases, with improved prediction accuracy during periods of high solar activity. All the code is available on Github https://github.com/ARCLab-MIT/sw-driver-forecaster.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

Uncertainty Propagation and Filtering via the Koopman Operator in Astrodynamics

The Koopman Operator (KO) provides an analytical solution of dynamical systems in terms of orthogonal polynomials. This work exploits this representation to include the propagation of uncertainties, where the polynomials are modified to work with stochastic variables. Thus, a new uncertainty quantification technique is proposed, where the KO solution is expanded to include the prediction of central moments, up to an arbitrary order. The propagation of uncertainties is then expanded to develop a new filtering algorithm, where measurements are considered as additional observables in the KO mathematics. Numerical simulations in astrodynamics assess the accuracy and performance of the new methodologies.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2024

Propagation of Uncertainty with the Koopman Operator

This paper proposes a new method to propagate uncertainties undergoing nonlinear dynamics using the Koopman Operator (KO). Probability density functions are propagated directly using the Koopman approximation of the solution flow of the system, where the dynamics have been projected on a well-defined set of basis functions. The prediction technique is derived following both the analytical (Galerkin) and numerical (EDMD) derivation of the KO, and a least square reduction algorithm assures the recursivity of the proposed methodology.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2024

Threat Level Estimation From Possible Break-Up Events In LEO

The NASA Standard Break-Up Model models collisions and explosions in space, which identifies the future distribution of debris. Given a possible break-up event, this work analyses the threat posed by the generated debris in the orbit of an asset spacecraft. Using the Koopman Operator solution of the $J_2$ perturbed two-body dynamics, the family of all possible orbits that cross the asset's pathway is identified and parameterized according to their velocity. The threat level assessment of a collision onto the asset is estimated considering the intersection between the velocities of the break-up model and the Koopman transfer solutions.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Satellite Drag Analysis During the May 2024 Gannon Geomagnetic Storm

Between May 10-12, 2024, Earth saw its largest geomagnetic storm in over 20 years. Since the last major storm in 2003, the population of satellites in low Earth orbit has surged following the commercialization of space services and the ongoing establishment of proliferated LEO constellations. In this note, we investigate the various impacts of the geomagnetic storm on satellite operations. A forecast performance assessment of the geomagnetic index ap shows that the magnitude and duration of the storm were poorly predicted, even one day in advance. Total mass density enhancements in the thermosphere are identified by tracking satellite drag decay characteristics. A history of two-line element (TLE) data from the entire NORAD catalog in LEO is used to observe large-scale trends. Better understanding how geomagnetic storms impact satellite operations is critical for maintaining satellite safety and ensuring long-term robust sustainability in LEO.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Language Models are Spacecraft Operators

Recent trends are emerging in the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) as autonomous agents that take actions based on the content of the user text prompts. We intend to apply these concepts to the field of Guidance, Navigation, and Control in space, enabling LLMs to have a significant role in the decision-making process for autonomous satellite operations. As a first step towards this goal, we have developed a pure LLM-based solution for the Kerbal Space Program Differential Games (KSPDG) challenge, a public software design competition where participants create autonomous agents for maneuvering satellites involved in non-cooperative space operations, running on the KSP game engine. Our approach leverages prompt engineering, few-shot prompting, and fine-tuning techniques to create an effective LLM-based agent that ranked 2nd in the competition. To the best of our knowledge, this work pioneers the integration of LLM agents into space research. Code is available at https://github.com/ARCLab-MIT/kspdg.

physics.space-ph↗