arXiv subjects

Richard N. Rosenthal

Publications and source records attributed to Richard N. Rosenthal.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Patient-Reported Survey Data Improve Prediction of Opioid Use Disorder

Electronic health records (EHRs) may incompletely capture patient-reported factors associated with opioid use disorder (OUD). We evaluated whether survey data improve prediction of a first recorded OUD diagnosis among 267,747 All of Us participants with documented opioid exposure, including 15,287 OUD cases. We compared EHR-only and EHR+survey models across 6-, 12-, and 24-month look-back windows using logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, multilayer perceptron, LSTM, GRU, and Transformer. Survey augmentation improved PR-AUC across all 24 model-window combinations by 0.0087-0.0505; the best 24-month LightGBM model improved from 0.6219 to 0.6603. Survey coverage increased with longer windows and differed by OUD status (24 months: 21.7% OUD-positive vs. 60.7% OUD-negative). Permutation analysis ranked survey features as the second most important information domain at 24 months in both evaluated models. Patient-reported data provide complementary predictive signals beyond structured EHRs while highlighting the importance of survey availability.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Comparative Study of Feature Selection Methods for EHR Diagnosis Codes in Opioid Use Disorder Prediction

Feature selection is a critical step in electronic health record (EHR)-based predictive modeling, where input variables are often high-dimensional, sparse, noisy, and redundant. Large feature sets not only increase computational burden and overfitting risk, but also make model interpretation difficult, leading to limited usefulness in clinical settings. In this study, we focus on diagnosis-related features and compare five feature selection paradigms for opioid use disorder (OUD) prediction: recurrence enrichment, NTK-motivated early gradient sensitivity, LightGBM-SHAP, Elastic Net, and large language model (LLM)-guided semantic selection. We use a unified preprocessing and evaluation framework and assess each method by downstream predictive performance, resampling stability, and representation of infrequent diagnosis codes. Our results demonstrate that performance improves with larger feature budgets with diminishing returns beyond a moderate size. NTK sensitivity provides the best overall balance of accuracy and stability, and LLM-guided selection contributes complementary clinically meaningful signals despite lower standalone performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Enhancing Clinical Predictive Modeling through Model Complexity-Driven Class Proportion Tuning for Class Imbalanced Data: An Empirical Study on Opioid Overdose Prediction

Class imbalance problems widely exist in the medical field and heavily deteriorates performance of clinical predictive models. Most techniques to alleviate the problem rebalance class proportions and they predominantly assume the rebalanced proportions should be a function of the original data and oblivious to the model one uses. This work challenges this prevailing assumption and proposes that links the optimal class proportions to the model complexity, thereby tuning the class proportions per model. Our experiments on the opioid overdose prediction problem highlight the performance gain of tuning class proportions. Rigorous regression analysis also confirms the advantages of the theoretical framework proposed and the statistically significant correlation between the hyperparameters controlling the model complexity and the optimal class proportions.

cs.LG↗