Rick Presman | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Order-Restricted Bayesian Ordinal Regression for the Modeling of Neuron Degeneration in Caenorhabditis elegans

Neuron degeneration is the underlying mechanism for the development of many diseases. Quantifying the association between increasing levels of toxic exposure and progressive neuronal damage is a critical component of understanding this development. We investigate this association by analyzing a novel dataset of ordinal neuronal damage scores derived from a series of toxicological assays of C. elegans, including variables such as toxicant concentration, maternal treatment, and direct chemical exposure. We propose a computationally efficient parameter-constrained Bayesian ordinal regression that captures the monotonic association between neuron damage scores and corresponding treatments. Power analysis via simulation studies reinforces the advantages of our model over standard alternatives used in existing work by practitioners. Analysis of the novel C. elegans assays indicates that maternal toxicity increases susceptibility in progeny, with the offspring generation exhibiting amplified neuronal damage upon later-life rotenone exposure even under mild parental developmental treatment.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Distance-to-Set Priors and Constrained Bayesian Inference

Constrained learning is prevalent in many statistical tasks. Recent work proposes distance-to-set penalties to derive estimators under general constraints that can be specified as sets, but focuses on obtaining point estimates that do not come with corresponding measures of uncertainty. To remedy this, we approach distance-to-set regularization from a Bayesian lens. We consider a class of smooth distance-to-set priors, showing that they yield well-defined posteriors toward quantifying uncertainty for constrained learning problems. We discuss relationships and advantages over prior work on Bayesian constraint relaxation. Moreover, we prove that our approach is optimal in an information geometric-sense for finite penalty parameters $\rho$, and enjoys favorable statistical properties when $\rho\to\infty$. The method is designed to perform effectively within gradient-based MCMC samplers, as illustrated on a suite of simulated and real data applications.

stat.ME↗