arXiv subjects

Rik Ghosh

Publications and source records attributed to Rik Ghosh.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

On-Chain Credit Risk Score in Decentralized Finance

Decentralized Finance (DeFi), a financial ecosystem without centralized controlling organization, has introduced a new paradigm for lending and borrowing. However, its capital efficiency remains constrained by the inability to effectively assess the risk associated with each user/wallet. This paper introduces the 'On-Chain Credit Risk Score (OCCR Score) in DeFi', a probabilistic measure designed to quantify the credit risk associated with a wallet. By analyzing historical real-time on-chain activity as well as predictive scenarios, the OCCR Score may enable DeFi lending protocols to dynamically adjust Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratios and Liquidation Thresholds (LT) based on the risk profile of a wallet. Unlike existing wallet risk scoring models, which rely on heuristic-based evaluations, the OCCR Score offers a more objective and probabilistic approach, aligning closer to traditional credit risk assessment methodologies. This framework can further enhance DeFi's capital efficiency by incentivizing responsible borrowing behavior and optimizing risk-adjusted returns for lenders.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2024

Compound V3 Economic Audit Report

Compound Finance is a decentralized lending protocol that enables the secure and efficient borrowing and lending of cryptocurrencies, utilizing smart contracts and dynamic interest rates based on supply and demand to facilitate transactions. The protocol enables users to supply different crypto assets and accrue interest, while borrowers can avail themselves of loans secured by collateralized assets. Our collaboration with Compound Finance focuses on harnessing the power of the Chainrisk simulation engine to optimize risk parameters of the Compound V3 (Comet) protocol. This report delineates a comprehensive methodology aimed at calculating key risk metrics of the protocol. This optimization framework is pivotal for mitigating systemic risks and enhancing the overall stability of the protocol. By leveraging Chainrisk's Cloud Platform, we conduct millions of simulations to evaluate the protocol's Value at Risk (VaR) and Liquidations at Risk (LaR), ultimately providing recommendations for parameter adjustments.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2023

Optimal Adaptive SMART Designs with Binary Outcomes

In a sequential multiple-assignment randomized trial (SMART), a sequence of treatments is given to a patient over multiple stages. In each stage, randomization may be done to allocate patients to different treatment groups. Even though SMART designs are getting popular among clinical researchers, the methodologies for adaptive randomization at different stages of a SMART are few and not sophisticated enough to handle the complexity of optimal allocation of treatments at every stage of a trial. Lack of optimal allocation methodologies can raise serious concerns about SMART designs from an ethical point of view. In this work, we develop an optimal adaptive allocation procedure to minimize the expected number of treatment failures for a SMART with a binary primary outcome. Issues related to optimal adaptive allocations are explored theoretically with supporting simulations. The applicability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using a recently conducted SMART study named M-Bridge for developing universal and resource-efficient dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) for incoming first-year college students as a bridge to desirable treatments to address alcohol-related risks.

stat.ME↗