arXiv subjects

Robert Alan Clements

Publications and source records attributed to Robert Alan Clements.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond Explainable AI (XAI): An Overdue Paradigm Shift and Post-XAI Research Directions

This study provides a cross-disciplinary examination of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) approaches-focusing on deep neural networks (DNNs) and large language models (LLMs)-and identifies empirical and conceptual limitations in current XAI. We discuss critical symptoms that stem from deeper root causes (i.e., two paradoxes, two conceptual confusions, and five false assumptions). These fundamental problems within the current XAI research field reveal three insights: experimentally, XAI exhibits significant flaws; conceptually, it is paradoxical; and pragmatically, further attempts to reform the paradoxical XAI might exacerbate its confusion-demanding fundamental shifts and new research directions. To move beyond XAI's limitations, we propose a four-pronged synthesized paradigm shift toward reliable and certified AI development. These four components include: verification-focused Interactive AI (IAI) to establish scientific community protocols for certifying AI system performance rather than attempting post-hoc explanations, AI Epistemology for rigorous scientific foundations, User-Sensible AI to create context-aware systems tailored to specific user communities, and Model-Centered Interpretability for faithful technical analysis-together offering comprehensive post-XAI research directions.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2012

Residual analysis methods for space--time point processes with applications to earthquake forecast models in California

Modern, powerful techniques for the residual analysis of spatial-temporal point process models are reviewed and compared. These methods are applied to California earthquake forecast models used in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Assessments of these earthquake forecasting models have previously been performed using simple, low-power means such as the L-test and N-test. We instead propose residual methods based on rescaling, thinning, superposition, weighted K-functions and deviance residuals. Rescaled residuals can be useful for assessing the overall fit of a model, but as with thinning and superposition, rescaling is generally impractical when the conditional intensity $λ$ is volatile. While residual thinning and superposition may be useful for identifying spatial locations where a model fits poorly, these methods have limited power when the modeled conditional intensity assumes extremely low or high values somewhere in the observation region, and this is commonly the case for earthquake forecasting models. A recently proposed hybrid method of thinning and superposition, called super-thinning, is a more powerful alternative.

stat.AP↗