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Robert C. Hampshire

Publications and source records attributed to Robert C. Hampshire.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

How to Staff When Customers Arrive in Batches

In many different settings, requests for service can arrive in near or true simultaneity with one another. This creates batches of arrivals to the underlying queueing system. In this paper, we study the staffing problem for the batch arrival queue. We show that batches place a dangerous and deceptive stress on services, requiring a high amount of resources and exhibiting a fundamentally larger tail in those demands. This uncovers a service regime in which a system with large batch arrivals may have low utilization but will still have non-trivial waiting. Methodologically, these staffing results follow from novel large batch and large batch-and-rate limits of the multi-server queueing model. In the large batch limit, we establish the first formal connection between general multi-server queues and storage processes, another family of stochastic models. By consequence, we show that the batch scaled queue length process is not asymptotically normal, and that, in fact, the fluid and diffusion-type limits coincide. Hence, the (safety) staffing of this system must be directly proportional to the batch size just to achieve a non-degenerate probability of wait. In exhibition of the existence and insights of this large batch regime, we apply our results to data on Covid-19 contact tracing in New York City. In doing so, we identify significant benefits produced by the tracing agency's decision to staff above national recommendations, and we also demonstrate that there may have been an opportunity to further improve the operation by optimizing the arrival pattern in the public health data pipeline.

cs.PF↗

Flattening the Curve: Insights From Queueing Theory

The worldwide outbreak of the coronavirus was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China. Since then, the disease has spread worldwide. As it currently spreading in the United States, policy makers, public health officials and citizens are racing to understand the impact of this virus on the United States healthcare system. They fear that the rapid influx of patients will overwhelm the healthcare system leading to unnecessary fatalities. Most countries and states in America have introduced mitigation strategies, such as social distancing, to decrease the rate of newly infected people, i.e. flattening the curve.In this paper, we analyze the time evolution of the number of people hospitalized due to the coronavirus using the methods of queueing theory. Given that the rate of new infections varies over time as the pandemic evolves, we model the number of coronavirus patients as a dynamical system based on the theory of infinite server queues with non-stationary Poisson arrival rates. With this model we are able to quantify how flattening the curve affects the peak demand for hospital resources. This allows us to characterize how aggressively society must flatten the curve in order to avoid overwhelming the capacity of healthcare system. We also demonstrate how flattening the curve impacts the elapsed time between the peak rate of hospitalizations and the time of the peak demand for the hospital resources. Finally, we present empirical evidence from China, South Korea, Italy and the United States that supports the insights from the model.

cs.PF↗