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Robert Carver

Publications and source records attributed to Robert Carver.

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High-resolution simulations unravel intensification mechanisms of pyrocumulonimbus clouds

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) firestorms -- wildfire-generated thunderstorms -- can trigger rapid fire spread. However, the multi-physics nature of pyroCb has made their core mechanisms inaccessible to direct observation and previous simulation and prediction efforts. We introduce a new simulation capability with the first high-resolution, fully coupled simulations of a pyroCb, allowing us to unravel its life cycle governed by two opposing mechanisms. We show fuel moisture is an energy sink that attenuates fire intensity rather than fueling clouds, resolving a long-standing debate. Conversely, we identify the driver of rapid intensification: the Self-Amplifying Fire-Induced Recirculation (SAFIR) mechanism, where precipitation-induced downdrafts intensify the parent fire under weak winds. This work provides a new mechanistic framework for pyroCb prediction and demonstrates a transformative computational approach for previously intractable problems in environmental science.

physics.ao-ph

Regional climate risk assessment from climate models using probabilistic machine learning

Effective climate risk assessment is hindered by the resolution gap between coarse global climate models and the fine-scale information needed for regional decisions. We introduce GenFocal, an AI framework that generates statistically accurate, fine-scale weather from coarse climate projections, without requiring paired simulated and observed events during training. GenFocal synthesizes complex and long-lived hazards, such as heat waves and tropical cyclones, even when they are not well represented in the coarse climate projections. It also samples high-impact, rare events more accurately than leading methods. By translating large-scale climate projections into actionable, localized information, GenFocal provides a powerful new paradigm to improve climate adaptation and resilience strategies.

cs.LG