arXiv subjects

Robert Gibbons

Publications and source records attributed to Robert Gibbons.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Bayesian Multiple Testing for Suicide Risk in Pharmacoepidemiology: Leveraging Co-Prescription Patterns

Suicide is the tenth leading cause of death in the United States, yet evidence on medication-related risk or protection remains limited. Most post-marketing studies examine one drug class at a time or rely on empirical-Bayes shrinkage with conservative multiplicity corrections, sacrificing power to detect clinically meaningful signals. We introduce a unified Bayesian spike-and-slab framework that advances both applied suicide research and statistical methodology. Substantively, we screen 922 prescription drugs across 150 million patients in U.S. commercial claims (2003 to 2014), leveraging real-world co-prescription patterns to inform a covariance prior that adaptively borrows strength across pharmacologically related agents. Statistically, the model couples this structured prior with Bayesian false-discovery-rate control, illustrating how network-guided variable selection can improve rare-event surveillance in high dimensions. Relative to the seminal empirical-Bayes analysis of Gibbons et al. (2019), our approach reconfirms the key harmful (e.g., alprazolam, hydrocodone) and protective (e.g., mirtazapine, folic acid) signals while revealing additional associations, such as a high-risk opioid combination and several folate-linked agents with potential preventive benefit that had been overlooked. A focused re-analysis of 18 antidepressants shows how alternative co-prescription metrics modulate effect estimates, shedding light on competitive versus complementary prescribing. These findings generate actionable hypotheses for clinicians and regulators and showcase the value of structured Bayesian modeling in pharmacovigilance.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Fiducial Inference for Random-Effects Calibration Models: Advancing Reliable Quantification in Environmental Analytical Chemistry

This article addresses calibration challenges in analytical chemistry by employing a random-effects calibration curve model and its generalizations to capture variability in analyte concentrations. The model is motivated by specific issues in analytical chemistry, where measurement errors remain constant at low concentrations but increase proportionally as concentrations rise. To account for this, the model permits the parameters of the calibration curve, which relate instrument responses to true concentrations, to vary across different laboratories, thereby reflecting real-world variability in measurement processes. Traditional large-sample interval estimation methods are inadequate for small samples, leading to the use of an alternative approach, namely the fiducial approach. The calibration curve that accurately captures the heteroscedastic nature of the data, results in more reliable estimates across diverse laboratory conditions. It turns out that the fiducial approach, when used to construct a confidence interval for an unknown concentration, produces a slightly wider width while achieving the desired coverage probability. Applications considered include the determination of the presence of an analyte and the interval estimation of an unknown true analyte concentration. The proposed method is demonstrated for both simulated and real interlaboratory data, including examples involving copper and cadmium in distilled water.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Deep Computerized Adaptive Testing

Computerized adaptive tests (CATs) play a crucial role in educational assessment and diagnostic screening in behavioral health. Unlike traditional linear tests that administer a fixed set of pre-assembled items, CATs adaptively tailor the test to an examinee's latent trait level by selecting a smaller subset of items based on their previous responses. Existing CAT frameworks predominantly rely on item response theory (IRT) models with a single latent variable, a choice driven by both conceptual simplicity and computational feasibility. However, many real-world item response datasets exhibit complex, multi-factor structures, limiting the applicability of CATs in broader settings. In this work, we develop a novel CAT system that incorporates multivariate latent traits, building on recent advances in Bayesian sparse multivariate IRT. Our approach leverages direct sampling from the latent factor posterior distributions, significantly accelerating existing information-theoretic item selection criteria by eliminating the need for computationally intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Recognizing the potential sub-optimality of existing item selection rules, which are often based on myopic one-step-lookahead optimization of some information-theoretic criterion, we propose a double deep Q-learning algorithm to learn an optimal item selection policy. Through simulation and real-data studies, we demonstrate that our approach not only accelerates existing item selection methods but also highlights the potential of reinforcement learning in CATs.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Sparse Bayesian Multidimensional Item Response Theory

Multivariate Item Response Theory (MIRT) is sought-after widely by applied researchers looking for interpretable (sparse) explanations underlying response patterns in questionnaire data. There is, however, an unmet demand for such sparsity discovery tools in practice. Our paper develops a Bayesian platform for binary and ordinal item MIRT which requires minimal tuning and scales well on large datasets due to its parallelizable features. Bayesian methodology for MIRT models has traditionally relied on MCMC simulation, which cannot only be slow in practice, but also often renders exact sparsity recovery impossible without additional thresholding. In this work, we develop a scalable Bayesian EM algorithm to estimate sparse factor loadings from mixed continuous, binary, and ordinal item responses. We address the seemingly insurmountable problem of unknown latent factor dimensionality with tools from Bayesian nonparametrics which enable estimating the number of factors. Rotations to sparsity through parameter expansion further enhance convergence and interpretability without identifiability constraints. In our simulation study, we show that our method reliably recovers both the factor dimensionality as well as the latent structure on high-dimensional synthetic data even for small samples. We demonstrate the practical usefulness of our approach on three datasets: an educational assessment dataset, a quality-of-life measurement dataset, and a bio-behavioral dataset. All demonstrations show that our tool yields interpretable estimates, facilitating interesting discoveries that might otherwise go unnoticed under a pure confirmatory factor analysis setting.

stat.ME↗