arXiv subjects

Robert H. Cameron

Publications and source records attributed to Robert H. Cameron.

43 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2013

No evidence for planetary influence on solar activity

Recently, Abreu et al. (2012, A&A, 548, A88) proposed a long-term modulation of solar activity through tidal effects exerted by the planets. This claim is based upon a comparison of (pseudo-)periodicities derived from records of cosmogenic isotopes with those arising from planetary torques on an ellipsoidally deformed Sun. We examined the statistical significance of the reported similarity of the periods. The tests carried out by Abreu et al. were repeated with artificial records of solar activity in the form of white or red noise. The tests were corrected for errors in the noise definition as well as in the apodisation and filtering of the random series. The corrected tests provide probabilities for chance coincidence that are higher than those claimed by Abreu et al. by about 3 and 8 orders of magnitude for white and red noise, respectively. For an unbiased choice of the width of the frequency bins used for the test (a constant multiple of the frequency resolution) the probabilities increase by another two orders of magnitude to 7.5% for red noise and 22% for white noise. The apparent agreement between the periodicities in records of cosmogenic isotopes as proxies for solar activity and planetary torques is statistically insignificant. There is no evidence for a planetary influence on solar activity.

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arXiv2013

Helioseismology of sunspots: how sensitive are travel times to the Wilson depression and to the subsurface magnetic field?

In order to assess the ability of helioseismology to probe the subsurface structure and magnetic field of sunspots, we need to determine how helioseismic travel times depend on perturbations to sunspot models. Here we numerically simulate the propagation of f, p1, and p2 wave packets through magnetic sunspot models. Among the models we considered, a ~50 km change in the height of the Wilson depression and a change in the subsurface magnetic field geometry can both be detected above the observational noise level. We also find that the travel-time shifts due to changes in a sunspot model must be modeled by computing the effects of changing the reference sunspot model, and not by computing the effects of changing the subsurface structure in the quiet-Sun model. For p1 modes the latter is wrong by a factor of four. In conclusion, numerical modeling of MHD wave propagation is an essential tool for the interpretation of the effects of sunspots on seismic waveforms.

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arXiv2012

Magnetohydrodynamics of the Weakly Ionized Solar Photosphere

We investigate the importance of ambipolar diffusion and Hall currents for high-resolution comprehensive ('realistic') photospheric simulations. To do so we extended the radiative magnetohydrodynamics code \emph{MURaM} to use the generalized Ohm's law under the assumption of local thermodynamic equilibrium. We present test cases comparing analytical solutions with numerical simulations for validation of the code. Furthermore, we carried out a number of numerical experiments to investigate the impact of these neutral-ion effects in the photosphere. We find that, at the spatial resolutions currently used (5-20 km per grid point), the Hall currents and ambipolar diffusion begin to become significant -- with flows of 100 m/s in sunspot light bridges, and changes of a few percent in the thermodynamic structure of quiet-Sun magnetic features. The magnitude of the effects is expected to increase rapidly as smaller-scale variations are resolved by the simulations.

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arXiv2011

Can surface flux transport account for the weak polar field in cycle 23?

To reproduce the weak magnetic field on the polar caps of the Sun observed during the declining phase of cycle 23 poses a challenge to surface flux transport models since this cycle has not been particularly weak. We use a well-calibrated model to evaluate the parameter changes required to obtain simulated polar fields and open flux that are consistent with the observations. We find that the low polar field of cycle 23 could be reproduced by an increase of the meridional flow by 55% in the last cycle. Alternatively, a decrease of the mean tilt angle of sunspot groups by 28% would also lead to a similarly low polar field, but cause a delay of the polar field reversals by 1.5 years in comparison to the observations.

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arXiv2011

The solar magnetic field since 1700: I. Characteristics of sunspot group emergence and reconstruction of the butterfly diagram

We use the historic record of sunspot groups compiled by the Royal Greenwich Observatory together with the sunspot number to derive the statistical properties of sunspot group emergence in dependence of cycle phase and strength. In particular we discuss the latitude, longitude, area and tilt angle of sunspot groups as functions of the cycle strength and of time during the solar cycle. Using these empirical characteristics the time-latitude diagram of sunspot group emergence (butterfly diagram) is reconstructed from 1700 onward on the basis of the Wolf and group sunspot numbers. This reconstruction will be useful in studies of the long-term evolution of the Sun's magnetic field.

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arXiv2011

The solar magnetic field since 1700: II. Physical reconstruction of total, polar and open flux

We have used semi-synthetic records of emerging sunspot groups based on sunspot number data as input for a surface flux transport model to reconstruct the evolution of the large-scale solar magnetic field and the open heliospheric flux from the year 1700 onward. The statistical properties of the semi-synthetic sunspot group records reflect those of the observed the Royal Greenwich Observatory photoheliographic results. These include correlations between the sunspot numbers and sunspot group latitudes, longitudes, areas and tilt angles. The reconstruction results for the total surface flux, the polar field, and the heliospheric open flux (determined by a current sheet source surface extrapolation) agree well with the available observational or empirically derived data and reconstructions. We confirm a significant positive correlation between the polar field during activity minimum periods and the strength of the subsequent sunspot cycle, which has implications for flux transport dynamo models for the solar cycle. Just prior to the Dalton minimum, at the end of the 18th century, a long cycle was followed by a weak cycle. We find that introducing a possibly `lost' cycle between 1793 and 1800 leads to a shift of the minimum of the open flux by 15 years which is inconsistent with the cosmogenic isotope record.

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arXiv2010

Sunspot group tilt angles and the strength of the solar cycle

It is known that the tilt angles of active regions increase with their latitude (Joy's law). It has never been checked before, however, whether the average tilt angles change from one cycle to another. Flux transport models show the importance of tilt angles for the reversal and build up of magnetic flux at the poles which is, in turn, correlated with the strength of the next cycle. Here we analyse time series of tilt angle measurements and look for a possible relationship of the tilt angles with other solar cycle parameters, in order to glean information on the solar dynamo and to estimate their potential for predictions of solar activity. We employ tilt angle data from Mount Wilson and Kodaikanal observatories covering solar cycles 15 to 21. We analyse the latitudinal distribution of the tilt angles (Joy's law), their variation from cycle to cycle and their relationship to other solar cycle parameters, such as the strength, amplitude and length. The two main results are: 1. An anti-correlation between the mean normalized tilt angle of a given cycle and the strength (or amplitude) of that cycle, with a correlation coefficient of r=-0.95 and r=-0.93 for Mount Wilson and Kodaikanal data, respectively. 2. The product of the cycle averaged tilt angle and the strength of the same cycle displays a significant correlation with the strength of the next cycle (r=0.65 and r=0.70 for Mount Wilson and Kodaikanal data, respectively). An even better correlation is obtained between the source term of the poloidal flux in Babcock-Leighton-type dynamos (which contains the tilt angle) and the amplitude of the next cycle. The results of this study indicate that in combination with the cycle strength, the active region tilt angles play an important role in building up the polar fields at cycle minimum.

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