arXiv subjects

Robert Hampshire

Publications and source records attributed to Robert Hampshire.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Estimating on-street parking occupancy using smart meter data

The excessive search for parking, known as cruising, generates pollution and congestion. Cities are looking for approaches that will reduce the negative impact associated with searching for parking. However, adequately measuring the number of vehicles in search of parking is difficult and requires sensing technologies. In this paper, we develop an approach that eliminates the need for sensing technology by using parking meter payment transactions to estimate parking occupancy and the number of cars searching for parking. The estimation scheme is based on Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We validate the performance of the Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach using data simulated from a GI/GI/s queue. We show that the approach generates asymptotically unbiased Bayesian estimates of the parking occupancy and underlying model parameters such as arrival rates, average parking time, and the payment compliance rate. Finally, we estimate parking occupancy and cruising using parking meter data from SFpark, a large scale parking experiment and subsequently, compare the Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo parking occupancy estimates against the ground truth data from the parking sensors. Our approach is easily replicated and scalable given that it only requires using data that cities already possess, namely historical parking payment transactions.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

Controlling arrival and service rates to reduce sensitivity of queueing systems with customer abandonment

The Erlang A model--an M/M/s queue with exponential abandonment--is often used to represent a service system with impatient customers. For this system, the popular square-root staffing rule determines the necessary staffing level to achieve the desirable QED (quality-and-efficiency-driven) service regime; however, the rule also implies that properties of large systems are highly sensitive to parameters. We reveal that the origin of this high sensitivity is due to the operation of large systems at a point of singularity in a phase diagram of service regimes. We can avoid this singularity by implementing a congestion-based control (CBC) scheme--a scheme that allows the system to change its arrival and service rates under congestion. We analyze a modified Erlang A model under the CBC scheme using a Markov chain decomposition method, derive non-asymptotic and asymptotic normal representations of performance indicators, and confirm that the CBC scheme makes large systems less sensitive than the original Erlang A model.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Markov Chain Decomposition Based On Total Expectation Theorem

A divide-and-conquer approach to analyzing Markov chains (MCs) is not utilized as widely as it could be, despite its potential benefits. One primary reason for this is the fact that most MC decomposition approaches involve a complex and inflexible methodology: decomposed subchains must be disjoint, transition rates of these decomposed subchains must be altered in a way tailored to the particular MC model, and the procedure to aggregate suchains needs to incorporate a nonlinear normalization constraint, complicating the analytical expression of performance measures. In contrast, we propose a versatile yet simple decomposition method for continuous time MCs based on the total expectation theorem. Leveraging the properties of this theorem, our method has great flexibility in the choice of subchains, and the procedure to obtain expected values of interest is simply a linear summation of subchains' properties, which is not affected by the normalization constraint. We prove that to maintain the correct distribution of decomposed subchains one may use our novel termination scheme, a modification of transition rates, that ensures partial flow conservation at boundary states. This termination scheme is applicable to MCs with any structure, since the scheme depends only on the boundary-state distribution, not on the structure of the MCs. To demonstrate the generality and capability of our method, we analytically solve various models, such as a congestion-based staffing queue and a Markov-modulated Mt/Mt/1 queue. As not all systems admit an analytical solution, we complement this analysis with numerical studies of MCs with various sizes using the algorithm based on our method.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Optimal Passenger-Seeking Policies on E-hailing Platforms Using Markov Decision Process and Imitation Learning

Vacant taxi drivers' passenger seeking process in a road network generates additional vehicle miles traveled, adding congestion and pollution into the road network and the environment. This paper aims to employ a Markov Decision Process (MDP) to model idle e-hailing drivers' optimal sequential decisions in passenger-seeking. Transportation network companies (TNC) or e-hailing (e.g., Didi, Uber) drivers exhibit different behaviors from traditional taxi drivers because e-hailing drivers do not need to actually search for passengers. Instead, they reposition themselves so that the matching platform can match a passenger. Accordingly, we incorporate e-hailing drivers' new features into our MDP model. The reward function used in the MDP model is uncovered by leveraging an inverse reinforcement learning technique. We then use 44,160 Didi drivers' 3-day trajectories to train the model. To validate the effectiveness of the model, a Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to simulate the performance of drivers under the guidance of the optimal policy, which is then compared with the performance of drivers following one baseline heuristic, namely, the local hotspot strategy. The results show that our model is able to achieve a 17.5% improvement over the local hotspot strategy in terms of the rate of return. The proposed MDP model captures the supply-demand ratio considering the fact that the number of drivers in this study is sufficiently large and thus the number of unmatched orders is assumed to be negligible. To better incorporate the competition among multiple drivers into the model, we have also devised and calibrated a dynamic adjustment strategy of the order matching probability.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

A Statistical Method for Parking Spaces Occupancy Detection via Automotive Radars

Real-time parking occupancy information is valuable for guiding drivers' searching for parking spaces. Recently many parking detection systems using range-based on-vehicle sensors are invented, but they disregard the practical difficulty of obtaining access to raw sensory data which are required for any feature-based algorithm. In this paper, we focus on a system using short-range radars (SRR) embedded in Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) to collect occupancy information, and broadcast it through a connected vehicle network. The challenge that the data transmitted through ADAS unit has been encoded to sparse points is overcome by a statistical method instead of feature extractions. We propose a two-step classification algorithm combining Mean-Shift clustering and Support Vector Machine to analyze SRR-GPS data, and evaluate it through field experiments. The results show that the average Type I error rate for off-street parking is $15.23 \%$ and for on-street parking is $32.62\%$. In both cased the Type II error rates are less than $20 \%$. Bayesian updating can recursively improve the mapping results. This paper can provide a comprehensive method to elevate automotive sensors for the parking detection function.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2016

An Evaluation of Information Sharing Parking Guidance Policies Using a Bayesian Approach

Real-time parking occupancy information is critical for a parking management system to facilitate drivers to park more efficiently. Recent advances in connected and automated vehicle technologies enable sensor-equipped cars (probe cars) to detect and broadcast available parking spaces when driving through parking lots. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of market penetration of probe cars on the system performance, and investigate different parking guidance policies to improve the data acquisition process. We adopt a simulation-based approach to impose four policies on an off- street parking lot influencing the behavior of probe cars to park in assigned parking spaces. This in turn effects the scanning route and the parking space occupancy estimations. The last policy we propose is a near-optimal guidance strategy that maximizes the information gain of posteriors. The results suggest that an efficient information gathering policy can compensate for low penetration of connected and automated vehicles. We also highlight the policy trade-off that occur while attempting to maximize information gain through explorations and improve assignment accuracy through exploitations. Our results can assist urban policy makers in designing and managing smart parking systems.

cs.AI↗