arXiv subjects

Robert J. Leamon

Publications and source records attributed to Robert J. Leamon.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: Some (Unpopular) Thoughts On the Coupling of the Sun's "Weather" and "Climate"

The Sun exhibits episodic surges of magnetic activity across a range of temporal and spatial scales, the most prominent of which is the 11-ish year modulation of sunspot production. Beside the ~170 (min to max) decadal variation in sunspot production there is a less-explored quasi-annual variation in the range of 25-50 sunspots/year in magnitude. In addition, there is there is a slower, ~80 year period, 10-50 variation in the sunspot number, that is commonly referred to as the 'Gleissberg Cycle.' Using a suite of contemporary and historical observations we will illustrate these elements of our star's episodic behavior and present a hypothesis that may provide a consistent physical link between the observed 'climatic', 'decadal' and 'seasonal' magnetic variation of our star.

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arXiv2023

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: The (Solar) Hale Cycle Terminator of 2021

We previously identified an event in the solar timeline that appeared to play a role in how Sunspot Cycle 23 (SC23) transitioned into Sunspot Cycle 24 (SC24). The timeframe for this transition was rapid, taking place over a very short time and perhaps in a time as short as a single solar rotation. Further, we inferred that the transition observed was a critical moment for the Sun's global-scale magnetic field as it was being manifest in the spatially and temporally overlapping magnetic systems belonging to the Sun's 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle. These events have been dubbed as Hale Cycle terminations, or `terminators' for short. Subsequent exploration of the sunspot record revealed a relationship between terminator separation (as a measure of overlap in the Hale Cycles) and the upcoming sunspot cycle amplitude using a Hilbert transform. Finally, we extrapolated the contemporary sunspots data's Hilbert phase function to project the occurrence of the SC24 terminator in Mid-2020 and inferred that this would result in a large Sunspot Cycle 25 (SC25) amplitude. This paper presents observational evidence that the end of SC24 and the initial growth of SC25 followed a terminator that occurred in mid-December 2021 (approximately 12/13/2021). Using this December 2021 terminator identification we can finalize our earlier preliminary forecast of SC25 amplitude \-- anticipating a peak total monthly sunspot number of 184$\pm$17 with 68\% confidence, and 184$\pm$63 with 95\% confidence. Finally, we use other terminator-related superposed epoch analyses developed in parallel work we project the timing of SC25 sunspot maximum to occur between late 2023 to mid 2024.

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arXiv2022

Uniting The Sun's Hale Magnetic Cycle and `Extended Solar Cycle' Paradigms

Through meticulous daily observation of the Sun's large-scale magnetic field the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) has catalogued two magnetic (Hale) cycles of solar activity. Those two (~22-year long) Hale cycles have yielded four ($\sim$11-year long) sunspot cycles (numbers 21 through 24). Recent research has highlighted the persistence of the "Extended Solar Cycle" (ESC) and its connection to the fundamental Hale Cycle - albeit through a host of proxies resulting from image analysis of the solar photosphere, chromosphere and corona. This short manuscript presents the correspondence of the ESC, the surface toroidal magnetic field evolution, and the evolution of the Hale Cycle. As Sunspot Cycle 25 begins, interest in observationally mapping the Hale and Extended cycles could not be higher given potential predictive capability that synoptic scale observations can provide.

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arXiv2021

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: 140 Years Of The `Extended Solar Cycle' -- Mapping the Hale Cycle

We investigate the occurrence of the "extended solar cycle" (ESC) as it occurs in a host observational data spanning 140 years. Investigating coronal, chromospheric, photospheric and interior diagnostics we develop a consistent picture of solar activity migration linked to the 22-year Hale (magnetic) cycle using superposed epoch analysis (SEA) using previously identified Hale cycle termination events as the key time for the SEA. Our analysis shows that the ESC and Hale cycle, as highlighted by the terminator-keyed SEA, is strongly recurrent throughout the entire observational record studied, some 140 years. Applying the same SEA method to the sunspot record confirms that Maunder's butterfly pattern is a subset of the underlying Hale cycle, strongly suggesting that the production of sunspots is not the fundamental feature of the Hale cycle, but the ESC is. The ESC (and Hale cycle) pattern highlights the importance of 55\degree\ latitude in the evolution, and possible production, of solar magnetism.

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arXiv2021

Solar Wind Helium Abundance Heralds Solar Cycle Onset

We study the solar wind helium-to-hydrogen abundance's ($A_\mathrm{He}$) relationship to solar cycle onset. Using OMNI/Lo data, we show that $A_\mathrm{He}$ increases prior to sunspot number (SSN) minima. We also identify a rapid depletion and recovery in $A_\mathrm{He}$ that occurs directly prior to cycle onset. This $A_\mathrm{He}$ Shutoff happens at approximately the same time across solar wind speeds ($v_\mathrm{sw}$), implying that it is formed by a mechanism distinct from the one that drives $A_\mathrm{He}$'s solar cycle scale variation and $v_\mathrm{sw}$-dependent phase offset with respect to SSN. The time between successive $A_\mathrm{He}$ shutoffs is typically on the order of the corresponding solar cycle length. Using Brightpoint (BP) measurements to provide context, we infer that this shutoff is likely related to the overlap of adjacent solar cycles and the equatorial flux cancelation of the older, extended solar cycle during Solar Minima.

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arXiv2020

Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude

The Sun exhibits a well-observed modulation in the number of spots on its disk over a period of about 11 years. From the dawn of modern observational astronomy sunspots have presented a challenge to understanding -- their quasi-periodic variation in number, first noted 175 years ago, stimulates community-wide interest to this day. A large number of techniques are able to explain the temporal landmarks, (geometric) shape, and amplitude of sunspot "cycles," however forecasting these features accurately in advance remains elusive. Recent observationally-motivated studies have illustrated a relationship between the Sun's 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle and the production of the sunspot cycle landmarks and patterns, but not the amplitude of the sunspot cycle. Using (discrete) Hilbert transforms on more than 270 years of (monthly) sunspot numbers we robustly identify the so-called "termination" events that mark the end of the previous 11-yr sunspot cycle, the enhancement/acceleration of the present cycle, and the end of 22-yr magnetic activity cycles. Using these we extract a relationship between the temporal spacing of terminators and the magnitude of sunspot cycles. Given this relationship and our prediction of a terminator event in 2020, we deduce that Sunspot Cycle 25 could have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began. This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of sunspot cycle 25 magnitude.

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arXiv2019

What the sudden death of solar cycles can tell us about the nature of the solar interior

We observe the abrupt end of solar activity cycles at the Sun's equator by combining almost 140 years of observations from ground and space. These "terminator" events appear to be very closely related to the onset of magnetic activity belonging to the next sunspot cycle at mid-latitudes and the polar-reversal process at high-latitudes. Using multi-scale tracers of solar activity we examine the timing of these events in relation to the excitation of new activity and find that the time taken for the solar plasma to communicate this transition is of the order of one solar rotation, but could be shorter. Utilizing uniquely comprehensive solar observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) we see that this transitional event is strongly longitudinal in nature. Combined, these characteristics imply that magnetic information is communicated through the solar interior rapidly. A range of possibilities exist to explain such behavior: the presence of magnetic reconnection in the deep interior, internal gravity waves on the solar tachocline, or that the magnetic fields present in the Sun's convection zone could be very large, with a poloidal field strengths reaching 50k - considerably larger than conventional explorations of solar and stellar dynamos estimate. Regardless of mechanism responsible, the rapid timescales demonstrated by the Sun's global magnetic field reconfiguration present strong constraints on first-principles numerical simulations of the solar interior and, by extension, other stars.

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arXiv2019

Signature of Extended Solar Cycles as Detected from Ca II K Synoptic Maps of Kodaikanal and Mount Wilson Observatory

In the recent years there has been a resurgence of the study of Extended Solar Cycles (ESCs) through observational proxies mainly in Extreme Ultraviolet. But most of them are limited only to space-based era covering only about two solar cycles. Long-term historical data-sets are worth in examining the consistency of ESCs. Kodaikanal Solar Observatory (KSO) and Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) are the two major sources of long-term Ca II K digitised spectroheliograms covering the temporal spans 1907-2007 and 1915-1985 respectively. In this study, we detected supergranule boundaries, commonly known as networks, using the Carrington maps from both KSO and MWO datasets. Subsequently we excluded the plage areas to consider only quiet sun (QS) and detected small scale bright features through intensity thresholding over the QS network. Latitudinal density of those features, which we named as `Network Bright Elements' (NBEs), could clearly depict the existence of overlapping cycles with equator-ward branches starting at latitude $\approx 55^{\circ}$ and taking about $15\pm1$ years to reach the equator. We performed superposed epoch analysis to depict the similarity of those extended cycles. Knowledge of such equator-ward band interaction, for several cycles, may provide critical constraints on solar dynamo models.

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arXiv2017

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: Spotting Solar Cycle 25

We present observational signatures of solar cycle 25 onset. Those signatures are visibly following a migratory path from high to low latitudes. They had starting points that are asymmetrically offset in each hemisphere at times that are 21-22 years after the corresponding, same polarity, activity bands of solar cycle 23 started their migration. Those bands define the so-called "extended solar cycle." The four magnetic bands currently present in the system are approaching a mutually cancelling configuration, and solar minimum conditions are imminent. Further, using a tuned analysis of the daily band latitude-time diagnostics, we are able to utilize the longitudinal wave number (m=1) variation in the data to more clearly reveal the presence of the solar cycle 25 bands. This clarification illustrates that prevalently active longitudes (different in each hemisphere) exist at mid-latitudes presently, lasting many solar rotations, that can be used for detailed study over the next several years with instruments like the Spectrograph on IRIS, the Spectropolarimeter on Hinode, and, when they come online, similar instruments on the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST) as we watch those bands evolve following the cancellation of the solar cycle 24 activity bands at the equator late in 2019.

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arXiv2015

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: On Grand Minima in Solar Activity

The Sun provides the energy necessary to sustain our existence. While the Sun provides for us, it is also capable of taking away. The weather and climatic scales of solar evolution and the Sun-Earth connection are not well understood. There has been tremendous progress in the century since the discovery of solar magnetism - magnetism that ultimately drives the electromagnetic, particulate and eruptive forcing of our planetary system. There is contemporary evidence of a decrease in solar magnetism, perhaps even indicators of a significant downward trend, over recent decades. Are we entering a minimum in solar activity that is deeper and longer than a typical solar minimum, a "grand minimum"? How could we tell if we are? What is a grand minimum and how does the Sun recover? These are very pertinent questions for modern civilization. In this paper we present a hypothetical demonstration of entry and exit from grand minimum conditions based on a recent analysis of solar features over the past 20 years and their possible connection to the origins of the 11(-ish) year solar activity cycle.

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arXiv2014

On Magnetic Activity Band Overlap, Interaction, and the Formation of Complex Solar Active Regions

Recent work has revealed an phenomenological picture of the how the $\sim$11-year sunspot cycle of Sun arises. The production and destruction of sunspots is a consequence of the latitudinal-temporal overlap and interaction of the toroidal magnetic flux systems that belong to the 22-year magnetic activity cycle and are rooted deep in the Sun's convective interior. We present a conceptually simple extension of this work, presenting a hypothesis on how complex active regions can form as a direct consequence of the intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction taking place in the solar interior. Furthermore, during specific portions of the sunspot cycle we anticipate that those complex active regions may be particular susceptible to profoundly catastrophic breakdown---producing flares and coronal mass ejections of most severe magnitude.

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arXiv2014

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity I: On The Relationship Between The Sunspot Cycle And The Evolution Of Small Magnetic Features

Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ~22-years. The principal variation of sunspots, an ~11-year variation in number, modulates the amount of magnetic field that pierces the solar surface and drives significant variations in our Star's radiative, particulate and eruptive output over that period. This paper presents observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory indicating that the 11-year sunspot variation is intrinsically tied it to the spatio-temporal overlap of the activity bands belonging to the 22-year magnetic activity cycle. Using a systematic analysis of ubiquitous coronal brightpoints, and the magnetic scale on which they appear to form, we show that the landmarks of sunspot cycle 23 can be explained by considering the evolution and interaction of the overlapping activity bands of the longer scale variability.

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arXiv2014

Identifying Potential Markers of the Sun's Giant Convective Scale

Line-of-sight magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) are analyzed using a diagnostic known as the "Magnetic Range of Influence," or MRoI. The MRoI is a measure of the length over which a photospheric magnetogram is balanced and so its application gives the user a sense of the connective length scales in the outer solar atmosphere. The MRoI maps and histograms inferred from the SDO/HMI magnetograms primarily exhibit four scales: a scale of a few megameters that can be associated with granulation, a scale of a few tens of megameters that can be associated with super-granulation, a scale of many hundreds to thousands of megameters that can be associated with coronal holes and active regions, and a hitherto unnoticed scale that ranges from 100 to 250 megameters. We infer that this final scale is an imprint of the (rotationally-driven) giant convective scale on photospheric magnetism. This scale appears in MRoI maps as well-defined, spatially distributed, concentrations that we have dubbed "g-nodes." Furthermore, using coronal observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on SDO, we see that the vicinity of these g-nodes appears to be a preferred location for the formation of extreme ultraviolet (EUV, and likely X-Ray) brightpoints. These observations and straightforward diagnostics offer the potential of a near-real-time mapping of the Sun's largest convective scale, a scale that possibly reaches to the very bottom of the convective zone.

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arXiv2013

The Evolving Magnetic Scales of the Outer Solar Atmosphere and Their Potential Impact on Heliospheric Turbulence

The presence of turbulent phenomena in the outer solar atmosphere is a given. However, because we are reduced to remotely sensing the atmosphere of a star with instruments of limited spatial and/or spectral resolution, we can only infer the physical progression from macroscopic to microscopic phenomena. Even so, we know that many, if not all, of the turbulent phenomena that pervade interplanetary space have physical origins at the Sun and so in this brief article we consider some recent measurements which point to sustained potential source(s) of heliospheric turbulence in the magnetic and thermal domains. In particular, we look at the scales of magnetism that are imprinted on the outer solar atmosphere by the relentless magneto-convection of the solar interior and combine state-of-the-art observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter (CoMP) which are beginning to hint at the origins of the wave/plasma interplay prevalent closer to the Earth. While linking these disparate scales of observation and understanding of their connection is near to impossible, it is clear that the constant evolution of subsurface magnetism on a host of scales guides and governs the flow of mass and energy at the smallest scales. In the near future significant progress in this area will be made by linking observations from high resolution platforms like the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) and Advanced Technology Solar Telescope (ATST) with full-disk synoptic observations such as those presented herein.

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arXiv2013

Hemispheric Asymmetries of Solar Photospheric Magnetism: Radiative, Particulate, and Heliospheric Impacts

Among many other measurable quantities the summer of 2009 saw a considerable low in the radiative output of the Sun that was temporally coincident with the largest cosmic ray flux ever measured at 1AU. A hemispheric asymmetry in magnetic activity is clearly observed and its evolution monitored and the resulting (prolonged) magnetic imbalance must have had a considerable impact on the structure and energetics of the heliosphere. While we cannot uniquely tie the variance and scale of the surface magnetism to the dwindling radiative and particulate output of the star, or the increased cosmic ray flux through the 2009 minimum, the timing of the decline and rapid recovery in early 2010 would appear to inextricably link them. These observations support a picture where the Sun's hemispheres are significantly out of phase with each other. Studying historical sunspot records with this picture in mind shows that the northern hemisphere has been leading since the middle of the last century and that the hemispheric "dominance" has changed twice in the past 130 years. The observations presented give clear cause for concern, especially with respect to our present understanding of the processes that produce the surface magnetism in the (hidden) solar interior - hemispheric asymmetry is the normal state - the strong symmetry shown in 1996 was abnormal. Further, these observations show that the mechanism(s) which create and transport the magnetic flux magnetic flux are slowly changing with time and, it appears, with only loose coupling across the equator such that those asymmetries can persist for a considerable time. As the current asymmetry persists and the basal energetics of the system continue to dwindle we anticipate new radiative and particulate lows coupled with increased cosmic ray fluxes heading into the next solar minimum.

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arXiv2011

Solar Cycle Variations in the Elemental Abundance of Helium and Fractionation of Iron in the Fast Solar Wind - Indicators of an Evolving Energetic Release of Mass from the Lower Solar Atmosphere

We present and discuss the strong correspondence between evolution of the emission length scale in the lower transition region and in situ measurements of the fast solar wind composition during this most recent solar minimum. We combine recent analyses demonstrating the variance in the (supergranular) network emission length scale measured by SOHO (and STEREO) with that of the Helium abundance (from WIND) and the degree of Iron fractionation in the solar wind (from the ACE and Ulysses). The net picture developing is one where a decrease in the Helium abundance and the degree of Iron fractionation (approaching values expected of the photosphere) in the fast wind indicate a significant change in the process loading material into the fast solar wind during the recent solar minimum. This result is compounded by a study of the Helium abundance during the space age using the NASA OMNI database which shows a slowly decaying amount of Helium being driven into the heliosphere over the course of the several solar cycles.

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arXiv2011

Observing Evolution in the Supergranular Length Scale During Periods of Low Solar Activity

We present the initial results of an observational study into the variation of the dominant length-scale of quiet solar emission: supergranulation. This length-scale reflects the radiative energy in the plasma of the upper solar chromosphere and transition region at the magnetic network boundaries forming as a result of the relentless interaction of magnetic fields and convective motions of the Sun's interior. We demonstrate that a net difference of ~0.5Mm in the supergranular emission length-scale occurs when comparing observations cycle 22/23 and cycle 23/24 minima. This variation in scale is reproduced in the datasets of multiple space- and ground-based instruments and using different diagnostic measures. By means of extension, we consider the variation of the supergranular length-scale over multiple solar minima by analyzing a subset of the Mt Wilson Solar Observatory (MWO) Ca II K image record. The observations and analysis presented provide a tantalizing look at solar activity in the absence of large-scale flux emergence, offering insight into times of "extreme" solar minimum and general behavior such as the phasing and cross-dependence of different components of the spectral irradiance. Given that the modulation of the supergranular scale imprints itself in variations of the Sun's spectral irradiance, as well as in the mass and energy transport into the entire outer atmosphere, this preliminary investigation is an important step in understanding the impact of the quiet sun on the heliospheric system.

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arXiv2010

The Spectroscopic Footprint of the Fast Solar Wind

We analyze a large, complex equatorial coronal hole (ECH) and its immediate surroundings with a focus on the roots of the fast solar wind. We start by demonstrating that our ECH is indeed a source of the fast solar wind at 1AU by examining in situ plasma measurements in conjunction with recently developed measures of magnetic conditions of the photosphere, inner heliosphere and the mapping of the solar wind source region. We focus the bulk of our analysis on interpreting the thermal and spatial dependence of the non-thermal line widths in the ECH as measured by SOHO/SUMER by placing the measurements in context with recent studies of ubiquitous Alfven waves in the solar atmosphere and line profile asymmetries (indicative of episodic heating and mass loading of the coronal plasma) that originate in the strong, unipolar magnetic flux concentrations that comprise the supergranular network. The results presented in this paper are consistent with a picture where a significant portion of the energy responsible for the transport of heated mass into the fast solar wind is provided by episodically occurring small-scale events (likely driven by magnetic reconnection) in the upper chromosphere and transition region of the strong magnetic flux regions that comprise the supergranular network.

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