arXiv subjects

Robert Knobloch

Publications and source records attributed to Robert Knobloch.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2019

Quant GANs: Deep Generation of Financial Time Series

Modeling financial time series by stochastic processes is a challenging task and a central area of research in financial mathematics. As an alternative, we introduce Quant GANs, a data-driven model which is inspired by the recent success of generative adversarial networks (GANs). Quant GANs consist of a generator and discriminator function, which utilize temporal convolutional networks (TCNs) and thereby achieve to capture long-range dependencies such as the presence of volatility clusters. The generator function is explicitly constructed such that the induced stochastic process allows a transition to its risk-neutral distribution. Our numerical results highlight that distributional properties for small and large lags are in an excellent agreement and dependence properties such as volatility clusters, leverage effects, and serial autocorrelations can be generated by the generator function of Quant GANs, demonstrably in high fidelity.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2019

Copula & Marginal Flows: Disentangling the Marginal from its Joint

Deep generative networks such as GANs and normalizing flows flourish in the context of high-dimensional tasks such as image generation. However, so far exact modeling or extrapolation of distributional properties such as the tail asymptotics generated by a generative network is not available. In this paper, we address this issue for the first time in the deep learning literature by making two novel contributions. First, we derive upper bounds for the tails that can be expressed by a generative network and demonstrate Lp-space related properties. There we show specifically that in various situations an optimal generative network does not exist. Second, we introduce and propose copula and marginal generative flows (CM flows) which allow for an exact modeling of the tail and any prior assumption on the CDF up to an approximation of the uniform distribution. Our numerical results support the use of CM flows.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2015

A generalised Itō formula for Lévy-driven Volterra processes

We derive a generalised Itō formula for stochastic processes which are constructed by a convolution of a deterministic kernel with a centred Lévy process. This formula has a unifying character in the sense that it contains the classical Itō formula for Lévy processes as well as recent change-of-variable formulas for Gaussian processes such as fractional Brownian motion as special cases. Our result also covers fractional Lévy processes (with Mandelbrot-Van Ness kernel) and a wide class of related processes for which such a generalised Itō formula has not yet been available in the literature.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

The Kingman tree length process has infinite quadratic variation

In the case of neutral populations of fixed sizes in equilibrium whose genealogies are described by the Kingman $N$-coalescent back from time $t$ consider the associated processes of total tree length as $t$ increases. We show that the (càdlàg) process to which the sequence of compensated tree length processes converges as $N$ tends to infinity is a process of infinite quadratic variation; therefore this process cannot be a semimartingale. This answers a question posed in Pfaffelhuber et al. (2011).

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

One-sided FKPP travelling waves in the context of homogeneous fragmentation processes

In this paper we introduce the one-sided FKPP equation in the context of homogeneous fragmentation processes. The main result of the present paper is concerned with the existence and uniqueness of one-sided FKPP travelling waves in this setting. Moreover, we prove some analytic properties of such travelling waves. Our techniques make use of fragmentation processes with killing, an associated product martingale as well as various properties of Lévy processes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Maximal inequalities for fractional Lévy and related processes

In this paper we study processes which are constructed by a convolution of a deterministic kernel with a martingale. A special emphasis is put on the case where the driving martingale is a centred Lévy process, which covers the popular class of fractional Lévy processes. As a main result we show that, under appropriate assumptions on the kernel and the martingale, the maximum process of the corresponding `convoluted martingale' is $p$-integrable and we derive maximal inequalities in terms of the kernel and of the moments of the driving martingale.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

Survival of homogeneous fragmentation processes with killing

We consider a homogenous fragmentation process with killing at an exponential barrier. With the help of two families of martingales we analyse the growth of the largest fragment for parameter values that allow for survival. In this respect the present paper is also concerned with the probability of extinction of the killed process.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

Limit theorems for fragmentation processes with immigration

In this paper we extend two limit theorems which were recently obtained for fragmentation processes to such processes with immigration. More precisely, in the setting with immigration we consider a limit theorem for the process counted with a random characteristic as well as the asymptotic behaviour of an empirical measure associated with the stopping line corresponding to the first blocks, in their respective line of descent, that are smaller than a given size. In addition, we determine the asymptotic decay rate of the size of the largest block in a homogeneous fragmentation process with immigration. The techniques used to proves these results are based on submartingale arguments.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

Asymptotic properties of the process counted with a random characteristic in the context of fragmentation processes

In this paper we prove a strong law of large numbers and its L^1-convergence counterpart for the process counted with a random characteristic in the context of self-similar fragmentation processes. This result extends a somewhat analogical result by Nerman for general branching processes to fragmentation processes. In addition, we apply the general result of this paper to a specific example that in particular extends a limit theorem, concerning the fragmentation energy, by Bertoin and Martínez from L^1-convergence to almost sure convergence. Our approach treats fragmentation processes with an infinite dislocation measure directly, without using a discretisation method. Moreover, we obtain a result regarding the asymptotic behaviour of the empirical mean associated with some stopped fragmentation process.

math.PR↗