Growth of global science: reflections on measurability and scientometric insights
Global science has become much larger and more interconnected in recent years. Such a complex and adaptive social system defies any attempt to systematically and comprehensively measure or monitor its growth and evolution. Yet, as it continues to expand and enhance its public value, effective evidence-based assessment has become increasingly critical for understanding its dynamics and managing the system. This paper offers a framework for addressing system-level measurability challenges. Inspired by Derek de Solla Prices pioneering scientometric work in the 1960s, this paper addresses analytical issues related to current measurements of the systems expansion since the turn of the 21st century. Our empirical analysis of global science dynamics presents new macro-level data on several observable megatrends in research publication output worldwide. Acknowledging the limited analytical scope of these trend data to understand the dynamics of global science, we outline currently available options to improve system-level measurability under conditions of ambiguity and uncertainty. Looking forward, we discuss likely future directions to establish integrated, multi-stakeholder measurement infrastructures.