arXiv subjects

Roberto Trotta

Publications and source records attributed to Roberto Trotta.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

A robust estimate of the Milky Way mass from rotation curve data

We present a new estimate of the mass of the Milky Way, inferred via a Bayesian approach by making use of tracers of the circular velocity in the disk plane and stars in the stellar halo, as from the publicly available {\tt galkin} compilation. We use the rotation curve method to determine the dark matter distribution and total mass under different assumptions for the dark matter profile, while the total stellar mass is constrained by surface stellar density and microlensing measurements. We also include uncertainties on the baryonic morphology via Bayesian model averaging, thus converting a potential source of systematic error into a more manageable statistical uncertainty. We evaluate the robustness of our result against various possible systematics, including rotation curve data selection, uncertainty on the Sun's velocity $V_0$, dependence on the dark matter profile assumptions, and choice of priors. We find the Milky Way's dark matter virial mass to be $\log_{10}M_{200}^{\rm DM}/ {\rm M_\odot} = 11.92^{+0.06}_{-0.05}{\rm(stat)}\pm{0.28}\pm0.27{\rm(syst)}$ ($M_{200}^{\rm DM}=8.3^{+1.2}_{-0.9}{\rm(stat)}\times10^{11}\,{\rm M_\odot}$). We also apply our framework to Gaia DR2 rotation curve data and find good statistical agreement with the above results.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

STACCATO: A Novel Solution to Supernova Photometric Classification with Biased Training Sets

We present a new solution to the problem of classifying Type Ia supernovae from their light curves alone given a spectroscopically confirmed but biased training set, circumventing the need to obtain an observationally expensive unbiased training set. We use Gaussian processes (GPs) to model the supernovae's (SN) light curves, and demonstrate that the choice of covariance function has only a small influence on the GPs ability to accurately classify SNe. We extend and improve the approach of Richards et al (2012} -- a diffusion map combined with a random forest classifier -- to deal specifically with the case of biassed training sets. We propose a novel method, called STACCATO (SynThetically Augmented Light Curve ClassificATiOn') that synthetically augments a biased training set by generating additional training data from the fitted GPs. Key to the success of the method is the partitioning of the observations into subgroups based on their propensity score of being included in the training set. Using simulated light curve data, we show that STACCATO increases performance, as measured by the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC), from 0.93 to 0.96, close to the AUC of 0.977 obtained using the 'gold standard' of an unbiased training set and significantly improving on the previous best result of 0.88. STACCATO also increases the true positive rate for SNIa classification by up to a factor of 50 for high-redshift/low brightness SNe.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2020

A Global Analysis of Dark Matter Signals from 27 Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies using 11 Years of Fermi-LAT Observations

We search for a dark matter signal in 11 years of Fermi-LAT gamma-ray data from 27 Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxies with spectroscopically measured $J$-factors. Our analysis includes uncertainties in $J$-factors and background normalisations and compares results from a Bayesian and a frequentist perspective. We revisit the dwarf spheroidal galaxy Reticulum II, confirming that the purported gamma-ray excess seen in Pass 7 data is much weaker in Pass 8, independently of the statistical approach adopted. We introduce for the first time posterior predictive distributions to quantify the probability of a dark matter detection from another dwarf galaxy given a tentative excess. A global analysis including all 27 dwarfs shows no indication for a signal in nine annihilation channels. We present stringent new Bayesian and frequentist upper limits on the dark matter cross section as a function of dark matter mass. The best-fit dark matter parameters associated with the Galactic Centre excess are excluded by at least 95% confidence level/posterior probability in the frequentist/Bayesian framework in all cases. However, from a Bayesian model comparison perspective, dark matter annihilation within the dwarfs is not strongly disfavoured compared to a background-only model. These results constitute the highest exposure analysis on the most complete sample of dwarfs to date. Posterior samples and likelihood maps from this study are publicly available.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

Bayesian reconstruction of the Milky Way dark matter distribution

We develop a novel Bayesian methodology aimed at reliably and precisely inferring the distribution of dark matter within the Milky Way using rotation curve data. We identify a subset of the available rotation curve tracers that are mutually consistent with each other, thus eliminating data sets that might suffer from systematic bias. We investigate three different models for the mass distribution of the luminous (baryonic) component that bracket the range of likely morphologies. We demonstrate the statistical performance of our method on simulated data in terms of coverage, fractional distance, and mean squared error. Applying it to Milky Way data we measure the local dark matter density at the solar circle $ρ_0$ to be $ρ_0 = 0.43\pm 0.02(\rm{stat})\pm0.01(\rm{sys})$ GeV/cm$^3$, with an accuracy $\sim$ 6%. This result is robust to the assumed baryonic morphology. The scale radius and inner slope of the dark matter profile are degenerate and cannot be individually determined with high accuracy. We show that these results are robust to several possible residual systematic errors in the rotation curve data.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2018

Dark matter substructure cannot explain properties of the Fermi Galactic Centre excess

An excess of gamma rays has been identified at the centre of the Milky Way, and annihilation of dark matter has been posited as a potential source. This hypothesis faces significant challenges: difficulty characterizing astrophysical backgrounds, the need for a non-trivial adiabatic contraction of the inner part of the Milky Way's dark matter halo, and recent observations of photon clustering, which suggest that the majority of the excess is due to unresolved point sources. Here we point out that the apparent point-like nature of the emission rules out the dark matter interpretation of the excess entirely. Attempting to model the emission with dark matter point sources either worsens the problem with the inner slope, requires an unrealistically large minihalo fraction toward the Galactic Centre, or overproduces the observed emission at higher latitudes.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2017

Retrieval Analysis of the Emission Spectrum of WASP-12b: Sensitivity of Outcomes to Prior Assumptions and Implications for Formation History

We analyze the emission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-12b using our HELIOS-R retrieval code and HELIOS-K opacity calculator. When interpreting Hubble and Spitzer data, the retrieval outcomes are found to be prior-dominated. When the prior distributions of the molecular abundances are assumed to be log-uniform, the volume mixing ratio of HCN is found to be implausibly high. A VULCAN chemical kinetics model of WASP-12b suggests that chemical equilibrium is a reasonable assumption even when atmospheric mixing is implausibly rigorous. Guided by (exo)planet formation theory, we set Gaussian priors on the elemental abundances of carbon, oxygen and nitrogen with the Gaussian peaks being centered on the measured C/H, O/H and N/H values of the star. By enforcing chemical equilibrium, we find substellar O/H and stellar to slightly superstellar C/H for the dayside atmosphere of WASP-12b. The superstellar carbon-to-oxygen ratio is just above unity, regardless of whether clouds are included in the retrieval analysis, consistent with Madhusudhan et al. (2011). Furthermore, whether a temperature inversion exists in the atmosphere depends on one's assumption for the Gaussian width of the priors. Our retrieved posterior distributions are consistent with the formation of WASP-12b in a solar-composition protoplanetary disk, beyond the water iceline, via gravitational instability or pebble accretion (without core erosion) and migration inwards to its present orbital location via a disk-free mechanism, and are inconsistent with both in-situ formation and core accretion with disk migration, as predicted by Madhusudhan et al. (2017). We predict that the interpretation of James Webb Space Telescope WASP-12b data will not be prior-dominated.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

Bayesian Methods in Cosmology

These notes aim at presenting an overview of Bayesian statistics, the underlying concepts and application methodology that will be useful to astronomers seeking to analyse and interpret a wide variety of data about the Universe. The level starts from elementary notions, without assuming any previous knowledge of statistical methods, and then progresses to more advanced, research-level topics. After an introduction to the importance of statistical inference for the physical sciences, elementary notions of probability theory and inference are introduced and explained. Bayesian methods are then presented, starting from the meaning of Bayes Theorem and its use as inferential engine, including a discussion on priors and posterior distributions. Numerical methods for generating samples from arbitrary posteriors (including Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Nested Sampling) are then covered. The last section deals with the topic of Bayesian model selection and how it is used to assess the performance of models, and contrasts it with the classical p-value approach. A series of exercises of various levels of difficulty are designed to further the understanding of the theoretical material, including fully worked out solutions for most of them.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

Cosmology and Fundamental Physics with the Euclid Satellite

Euclid is a European Space Agency medium class mission selected for launch in 2020 within the Cosmic Vision 2015 2025 program. The main goal of Euclid is to understand the origin of the accelerated expansion of the universe. Euclid will explore the expansion history of the universe and the evolution of cosmic structures by measuring shapes and redshifts of galaxies as well as the distribution of clusters of galaxies over a large fraction of the sky. Although the main driver for Euclid is the nature of dark energy, Euclid science covers a vast range of topics, from cosmology to galaxy evolution to planetary research. In this review we focus on cosmology and fundamental physics, with a strong emphasis on science beyond the current standard models. We discuss five broad topics: dark energy and modified gravity, dark matter, initial conditions, basic assumptions and questions of methodology in the data analysis. This review has been planned and carried out within Euclid's Theory Working Group and is meant to provide a guide to the scientific themes that will underlie the activity of the group during the preparation of the Euclid mission.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

Standardizing Type Ia supernovae using Near Infrared rebrightening time

Accurate standardisation of Type Ia supernovae (SNIa) is instrumental to the usage of SNIa as distance indicators. We analyse a homogeneous sample of 22 low-z SNIa, observed by the Carnegie Supernova Project (CSP) in the optical and near infra-red (NIR). We study the time of the second peak in the NIR band due to re-brightening, t2, as an alternative standardisation parameter of SNIa peak brightness. We use BAHAMAS, a Bayesian hierarchical model for SNIa cosmology, to determine the residual scatter in the Hubble diagram. We find that in the absence of a colour correction, t2 is a better standardisation parameter compared to stretch: t2 has a 1 sigma posterior interval for the Hubble residual scatter of [0.250, 0.257] , compared to [0.280, 0.287] when stretch (x1) alone is used. We demonstrate that when employed together with a colour correction, t2 and stretch lead to similar residual scatter. Using colour, stretch and t2 jointly as standardisation parameters does not result in any further reduction in scatter, suggesting that t2 carries redundant information with respect to stretch and colour. With a much larger SNIa NIR sample at higher redshift in the future, t2 could be a useful quantity to perform robustness checks of the standardisation procedure.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

Global analysis of the pMSSM in light of the Fermi GeV excess: prospects for the LHC Run-II and astroparticle experiments

We present a new global fit of the 19-dimensional phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (pMSSM-19) that comply with all the latest experimental results from dark matter indirect, direct and accelerator dark matter searches. We show that the model provides a satisfactory explanation of the excess of gamma-rays from the Galactic centre observed by the Fermi~Large Area Telescope, assuming that it is produced by the annihilation of neutralinos in the Milky Way halo. We identify two regions that pass all the constraints: the first corresponds to neutralinos with a mass ~80-100 GeV annihilating into WW with a branching ratio of 95% ; the second to heavier neutralinos, with mass ~180-200 GeV annihilating into t tbar with a branching ratio of 87%. We show that neutralinos compatible with the Galactic centre GeV excess will soon be within the reach of LHC run-II -- notably through searches for charginos and neutralinos, squarks and light smuons -- and of Xenon1T, thanks to its unprecedented sensitivity to spin-dependent cross-section off neutrons.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2016

Effective Field Theory of Dark Matter: a Global Analysis

We present global fits of an effective field theory description of real, and complex scalar dark matter candidates. We simultaneously take into account all possible dimension 6 operators consisting of dark matter bilinears and gauge invariant combinations of quark and gluon fields. We derive constraints on the free model parameters for both the real (five parameters) and complex (seven) scalar dark matter models obtained by combining Planck data on the cosmic microwave background, direct detection limits from LUX, and indirect detection limits from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We find that for real scalars indirect dark matter searches disfavour a dark matter particle mass below 100 GeV. For the complex scalar dark matter particle current data have a limited impact due to the presence of operators that lead to p-wave annihilation, and also do not contribute to the spin-independent scattering cross- section. Although current data are not informative enough to strongly constrain the theory parameter space, we demonstrate the power of our formalism to reconstruct the theoretical parameters compatible with an actual dark matter detection, by assuming that the excess of gamma rays observed by the Fermi Large Area Telescope towards the Galactic centre is entirely due to dark matter annihilations. Please note that the excess can very well be due to astrophysical sources such as millisecond pulsars. We find that scalar dark matter interacting via effective field theory operators can in principle explain the Galactic centre excess, but that such interpretation is in strong tension with the non-detection of gamma rays from dwarf galaxies in the real scalar case. In the complex scalar case there is enough freedom to relieve the tension.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2015

Cosmology and fundamental physics with the Euclid satellite

Euclid is a European Space Agency medium class mission selected for launch in 2019 within the Cosmic Vision 2015-2025 programme. The main goal of Euclid is to understand the origin of the accelerated expansion of the Universe. Euclid will explore the expansion history of the Universe and the evolution of cosmic structures by measuring shapes and redshifts of galaxies as well as the distribution of clusters of galaxies over a large fraction of the sky. Although the main driver for Euclid is the nature of dark energy, Euclid science covers a vast range of topics, from cosmology to galaxy evolution to planetary research. In this review we focus on cosmology and fundamental physics, with a strong emphasis on science beyond the current standard models. We discuss five broad topics: dark energy and modified gravity, dark matter, initial conditions, basic assumptions and questions of methodology in the data analysis. This review has been planned and carried out within Euclid's Theory Working Group and is meant to provide a guide to the scientific themes that will underlie the activity of the group during the preparation of the Euclid mission.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2014

Compatibility of Planck and BICEP2 in the Light of Inflation

We investigate the implications for inflation of the detection of B-modes polarization in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) by BICEP2. We show that the hypothesis of primordial origin of the measurement is only favored by the first four bandpowers, while the others would prefer unreasonably large values of the tensor-to-scalar ratio. Using only those four bandpowers, we carry out a complete analysis in the cosmological and inflationary slow-roll parameter space using the BICEP2 polarization measurements alone and extract the Bayesian evidences and complexities for all the Encyclopaedia Inflationaris models. This allows us to determine the most probable and simplest BICEP2 inflationary scenarios. Although this list contains the simplest monomial potentials, it also includes many other scenarios, suggesting that focusing model building efforts on large field models only is unjustified at this stage. We demonstrate that the sets of inflationary models preferred by Planck alone and BICEP2 alone are almost disjoint, indicating a clear tension between the two data sets. We address this tension with a Bayesian measure of compatibility between BICEP2 and Planck. We find that for models favored by Planck the two data sets tend to be incompatible, whereas there is a moderate evidence of compatibility for the BICEP2 preferred models. As a result, it would be premature to draw any conclusion on the best Planck models, such as Starobinsky and/or Kahler moduli inflation. For the subset of scenarios not exhibiting data sets incompatibility, we update the evidences and complexities using both data sets together.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2014

The Best Inflationary Models After Planck

We compute the Bayesian evidence and complexity of 193 slow-roll single-field models of inflation using the Planck 2013 Cosmic Microwave Background data, with the aim of establishing which models are favoured from a Bayesian perspective. Our calculations employ a new numerical pipeline interfacing an inflationary effective likelihood with the slow-roll library ASPIC and the nested sampling algorithm MULTINEST. The models considered represent a complete and systematic scan of the entire landscape of inflationary scenarios proposed so far. Our analysis singles out the most probable models (from an Occam's razor point of view) that are compatible with Planck data, while ruling out with very strong evidence 34% of the models considered. We identify 26% of the models that are favoured by the Bayesian evidence, corresponding to 15 different potential shapes. If the Bayesian complexity is included in the analysis, only 9% of the models are preferred, corresponding to only 9 different potential shapes. These shapes are all of the plateau type.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2013

Taming astrophysical bias in direct dark matter searches

We explore systematic biases in the identification of dark matter in future direct detection experiments and compare the reconstructed dark matter properties when assuming a self-consistent dark matter distribution function and the standard Maxwellian velocity distribution. We find that the systematic bias on the dark matter mass and cross-section determination arising from wrong assumptions for its distribution function is of order ~1σ. A much larger systematic bias can arise if wrong assumptions are made on the underlying Milky Way mass model. However, in both cases the bias is substantially mitigated by marginalizing over galactic model parameters. We additionally show that the velocity distribution can be reconstructed in an unbiased manner for typical dark matter parameters. Our results highlight both the robustness of the dark matter mass and cross-section determination using the standard Maxwellian velocity distribution and the importance of accounting for astrophysical uncertainties in a statistically consistent fashion.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2012

Fundamental statistical limitations of future dark matter direct detection experiments

We discuss irreducible statistical limitations of future ton-scale dark matter direct detection experiments. We focus in particular on the coverage of confidence intervals, which quantifies the reliability of the statistical method used to reconstruct the dark matter parameters, and the bias of the reconstructed parameters. We study 36 benchmark dark matter models within the reach of upcoming ton-scale experiments. We find that approximate confidence intervals from a profile-likelihood analysis exactly cover or over-cover the true values of the WIMP parameters, and are hence conservative. We evaluate the probability that unavoidable statistical fluctuations in the data might lead to a biased reconstruction of the dark matter parameters, or large uncertainties on the reconstructed parameter values. We show that this probability can be surprisingly large, even for benchmark models leading to a large event rate of order a hundred counts. We find that combining data sets from two different targets leads to improved coverage properties, as well as a substantial reduction of statistical bias and uncertainty on the dark matter parameters.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2012

Evidence for dark matter modulation in CoGeNT?

We investigate the question of whether the recent modulation signal claimed by CoGeNT is best explained by the dark matter (DM) hypothesis from a Bayesian model comparison perspective. We consider five phenomenological explanations for the data: no modulation signal, modulation due to DM, modulation due to DM compatible with the total CoGeNT rate, and a signal coming from other physics with a free phase but annual period, or with a free phase and a free period. In each scenario, we assign to the free parameters physically motivated priors. We find that while the DM models are weakly preferred to the no modulation model, but when compared to models where the modulation is due to other physics, the DM hypothesis is favoured with odds ranging from 185:1 to 560:1. This result is robust even when astrophysical uncertainties are taken into account and the impact of priors assessed. Interestingly, the odds for the DM model in which the modulation signal is compatible with the total rate against a DM model in which this prior is not implemented is only 5:8, in spite of the former's prediction of a modulation amplitude in the energy range 0.9 to 3.0 keVee that is significantly smaller than the value observed by CoGeNT. Classical hypothesis testing also rules out the null hypothesis of no modulation at the 1.6 sigma to 2.3 sigma level, depending on the details of the alternative. Lastly, we investigate whether anisotropic velocity distributions can help to mitigate the tension between the CoGeNT total and modulated rates, and find encouraging results.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2012

Dark Matter Searches: The Nightmare Scenario

The unfortunate case where the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) fails to discover physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is sometimes referred to as the "Nightmare scenario" of particle physics. We study the consequences of this hypothetical scenario for Dark Matter (DM), in the framework of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM). We evaluate the surviving regions of the cMSSM parameter space after null searches at the LHC, using several different LHC configurations, and study the consequences for DM searches with ton-scale direct detectors and the IceCube neutrino telescope. We demonstrate that ton-scale direct detection experiments will be able to conclusively probe the cMSSM parameter space that would survive null searches at the LHC with 100fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity at 14TeV. We also demonstrate that IceCube (80 strings plus DeepCore) will be able to probe as much as 17% of the currently favoured parameter space after 5 years of observation.

astro-ph.HE↗