arXiv subjects

Rodolphe Le Riche

Publications and source records attributed to Rodolphe Le Riche.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Active learning strategy for excursion-set confidence regions of functional simulator outputs

Estimating excursion set confidence regions seeks to identify regions where a function may exceed some threshold with a given confidence level. This paper focuses on estimating such confidence regions in cases where the function has random inputs and a functional output that is returned all at once. We develop a surrogate-based approach for estimating the confidence region, combining principal component analysis and Gaussian process regression. An active learning strategy is also introduced, based on a max-min criterion that selects new samples which are likely to reduce the uncertainty in the confidence region. This strategy leverages efficient sampling of the Gaussian process through a Karhunen-Lo\`eve expansion. The proposed approach is applied to estimate the confidence regions of three case studies: a synthetic function, the surface pressure coefficient distribution of a hypersonic vehicle, and the glide-back trajectory of a reusable launcher first stage. The method demonstrates efficiency in accurately estimating the confidence region while reducing sources of modeling uncertainties. It is benchmarked against reference methods from the literature. Relevant metrics for assessing the confidence region estimation performance are discussed.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Linear Interpolation under Differential Information: application to the prediction of perfect flows

Approximation of functions satisfying partial differential equations (PDEs) is paramount for simulation of physical fluid flows and other problems in physics. Recently, physics-informed machine learning approaches have proven useful as a data-driven complement to numerical models for partial differential equations, bringing faster responses and allowing us to capitalize on past observations. However, their efficiency and convergence depend on the availability of vast training datasets. For sparse observations, Gaussian process regression or Kriging has emerged as a powerful interpolation model, offering principled estimates and uncertainty quantification. Several attempts have been made to condition Gaussian processes on linear PDEs via artificial or collocation observations and kernel design.These methods suffer from scalability issues in higher dimensions and limited generalizability. The aim of this study is to explore the extension of the Kriging predictor in the presence of linear PDE information at a finite number of collocation points. Two approaches are proposed: 1) A collocated co-Kriging with primary observations of the physical field and auxiliary differential observations; 2) A constrained Kriging optimization problem strongly satisfying linear PDE constraints at the points of prediction through a Lagrangian formulation. Numerical experiments are given for ordinary differential equations, 2D harmonic PDEs and an application to perfect flows around a cylinder. This work highlights a trade-off between the computational efficiency of the Lagrange multipliers approach and the strict interpolation of observations.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Scalable multitask Gaussian processes for complex mechanical systems with functional covariates

Functional covariates arise in many scientific and engineering applications when model inputs take the form of time-dependent or spatially distributed profiles, such as varying boundary conditions or changing material behaviours. In addition, new practices in digital simulation require predictions accompanied by confidence intervals. Models based on Gaussian processes (GPs) provide principled uncertainty quantification. However, GPs capable of jointly handling functional covariates and multiple correlated functional tasks remain largely under-explored. In this work, we extend the framework of GPs with functional covariates to multitask problems by introducing a fully separable kernel structure that captures dependencies across tasks and functional inputs. By taking advantage of the Kronecker structure of the covariance matrix, the model is made scalable. The proposed model is validated on a synthetic benchmark and applied to a realistic structure, a riveted assembly with functional descriptions of the material behaviour and response forces. The proposed functional multitask GP significantly improves over single task GPs. For the riveted assembly, it requires less than 100 samples to produce an accurate mean and confidence interval prediction. Despite its larger number of parameters, the multitask GP is computationally easier to learn than its single task pendant.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Multiobjective Optimization under Uncertainties using Conditional Pareto Fronts

In this work, we propose a novel method to tackle the problem of multiobjective optimization under parameteric uncertainties, by considering the Conditional Pareto Sets and Conditional Pareto Fronts. Based on those quantities we can define the probability of coverage of the Conditional Pareto Set which can be interpreted as the probability for a design to be optimal in the Pareto sense. Due to the computational cost of such an approach, we introduce an Active Learning method based on Gaussian Process Regression in order to improve the estimation of this probability, which relies on a reformulation of the EHVI. We illustrate those methods on a few toy problems of moderate dimension, and on the problem of designing a cabin to highlight the differences in solutions brought by different formulations of the problem.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Augmented Quantization: Mixture Models for Risk-Oriented Sensitivity Analysis

A central question in risk analysis is to identify the factors that drive the system toward a specific hazardous outcome, such as the exceedance of a given threshold. When relying on numerical simulators, we propose to study the distribution of the inputs, transformed into uniform variables via their cumulative distributions, conditionally on the occurrence of the hazardous event. To represent this multivariate conditional distribution for sensitivity analysis, we introduce an original quantization approach based on estimating a mixture of Dirac and local uniform distributions. For each marginal of this mixture, a Dirac component indicates a strong influence of the corresponding variable, whereas a uniform component with wide support reflects weak influence. A notable advantage of this method is its ability to identify the regions of the input space that most strongly influence the occurrence of the risk event, while also capturing the joint effects of multiple variables. However, learning mixture models typically relies on likelihood-based methods, which are not well suited to mixtures involving singular or Dirac components. To address this, we propose an \emph{Augmented Quantization} method, a reformulation of the classical quantization problem based on the p-Wasserstein distance, which can be computed in very general distribution spaces. The performance of Augmented Quantization in estimating such mixture models is first demonstrated on analytical toy problems, and then applied to sensitivity analysis of both an analytical function and a practical flooding case study on a section of the Loire River.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

A survey on multi-fidelity surrogates for simulators with functional outputs: unified framework and benchmark

Multi-fidelity surrogate models combining dimensionality reduction and an intermediate surrogate in the reduced space allow a cost-effective emulation of simulators with functional outputs. The surrogate is an input-output mapping learned from a limited number of simulator evaluations. This computational efficiency makes surrogates commonly used for many-query tasks. Diverse methods for building them have been proposed in the literature, but they have only been partially compared. This paper introduces a unified framework encompassing the different surrogate families, followed by a methodological comparison and the exposition of practical considerations. More than a dozen of existing multi-fidelity surrogates have been implemented under the unified framework and evaluated on a set of benchmark problems. Based on the results, guidelines and recommendations are proposed regarding multi-fidelity surrogates with functional outputs. Our study shows that most multi-fidelity surrogates outperform their tested single-fidelity counterparts under the considered settings. But no particular surrogate is performing better on every test case. Therefore, the selection of a surrogate should consider the specific properties of the emulated functions, in particular the correlation between the low- and high-fidelity simulators, the size of the training set, the local nonlinear variations in the residual fields, and the size of the training datasets.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2024

FunQuant: A R package to perform quantization in the context of rare events and time-consuming simulations

Quantization summarizes continuous distributions by calculating a discrete approximation. Among the widely adopted methods for data quantization is Lloyd's algorithm, which partitions the space into Voronoï cells, that can be seen as clusters, and constructs a discrete distribution based on their centroids and probabilistic masses. Lloyd's algorithm estimates the optimal centroids in a minimal expected distance sense, but this approach poses significant challenges in scenarios where data evaluation is costly, and relates to rare events. Then, the single cluster associated to no event takes the majority of the probability mass. In this context, a metamodel is required and adapted sampling methods are necessary to increase the precision of the computations on the rare clusters.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2023

A sampling criterion for constrained Bayesian optimization with uncertainties

We consider the problem of chance constrained optimization where it is sought to optimize a function and satisfy constraints, both of which are affected by uncertainties. The real world declinations of this problem are particularly challenging because of their inherent computational cost. To tackle such problems, we propose a new Bayesian optimization method. It applies to the situation where the uncertainty comes from some of the inputs, so that it becomes possible to define an acquisition criterion in the joint controlled-uncontrolled input space. The main contribution of this work is an acquisition criterion that accounts for both the average improvement in objective function and the constraint reliability. The criterion is derived following the Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction logic and its maximization provides both optimal controlled and uncontrolled parameters. Analytical expressions are given to efficiently calculate the criterion. Numerical studies on test functions are presented. It is found through experimental comparisons with alternative sampling criteria that the adequation between the sampling criterion and the problem contributes to the efficiency of the overall optimization. As a side result, an expression for the variance of the improvement is given.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Quantizing rare random maps: application to flooding visualization

Visualization is an essential operation when assessing the risk of rare events such as coastal or river floodings. The goal is to display a few prototype events that best represent the probability law of the observed phenomenon, a task known as quantization. It becomes a challenge when data is expensive to generate and critical events are scarce, like extreme natural hazard. In the case of floodings, each event relies on an expensive-to-evaluate hydraulic simulator which takes as inputs offshore meteo-oceanic conditions and dyke breach parameters to compute the water level map. In this article, Lloyd's algorithm, which classically serves to quantize data, is adapted to the context of rare and costly-to-observe events. Low probability is treated through importance sampling, while Functional Principal Component Analysis combined with a Gaussian process deal with the costly hydraulic simulations. The calculated prototype maps represent the probability distribution of the flooding events in a minimal expected distance sense, and each is associated to a probability mass. The method is first validated using a 2D analytical model and then applied to a real coastal flooding scenario. The two sources of error, the metamodel and the importance sampling, are evaluated to quantify the precision of the method.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

A comparison of mixed-variables Bayesian optimization approaches

Most real optimization problems are defined over a mixed search space where the variables are both discrete and continuous. In engineering applications, the objective function is typically calculated with a numerically costly black-box simulation.General mixed and costly optimization problems are therefore of a great practical interest, yet their resolution remains in a large part an open scientific question. In this article, costly mixed problems are approached through Gaussian processes where the discrete variables are relaxed into continuous latent variables. The continuous space is more easily harvested by classical Bayesian optimization techniques than a mixed space would. Discrete variables are recovered either subsequently to the continuous optimization, or simultaneously with an additional continuous-discrete compatibility constraint that is handled with augmented Lagrangians. Several possible implementations of such Bayesian mixed optimizers are compared. In particular, the reformulation of the problem with continuous latent variables is put in competition with searches working directly in the mixed space. Among the algorithms involving latent variables and an augmented Lagrangian, a particular attention is devoted to the Lagrange multipliers for which a local and a global estimation techniques are studied. The comparisons are based on the repeated optimization of three analytical functions and a beam design problem.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

TREGO: a Trust-Region Framework for Efficient Global Optimization

Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) is the canonical form of Bayesian optimization that has been successfully applied to solve global optimization of expensive-to-evaluate black-box problems. However, EGO struggles to scale with dimension, and offers limited theoretical guarantees. In this work, a trust-region framework for EGO (TREGO) is proposed and analyzed. TREGO alternates between regular EGO steps and local steps within a trust region. By following a classical scheme for the trust region (based on a sufficient decrease condition), the proposed algorithm enjoys global convergence properties, while departing from EGO only for a subset of optimization steps. Using extensive numerical experiments based on the well-known COCO {bound constrained problems}, we first analyze the sensitivity of TREGO to its own parameters, then show that the resulting algorithm is consistently outperforming EGO and getting competitive with other state-of-the-art black-box optimization methods.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Coupling and selecting constraints in Bayesian optimization under uncertainties

We consider chance constrained optimization where it is sought to optimize a function while complying with constraints, both of which are affected by uncertainties. The high computational cost of realistic simulations strongly limits the number of evaluations and makes this type of problems particularly challenging. In such a context, it is common to rely on Bayesian optimization algorithms. Assuming, without loss of generality, that the uncertainty comes from some of the inputs, it becomes possible to build a Gaussian process model in the joint space of design and uncertain variables. A two-step acquisition function is then used to provide, both, promising optimization variables associated to relevant uncertain samples. Our overall contribution is to correlate the constraints in the GP model and exploit this to optimally decide, at each iteration, which constraint should be evaluated and at which point. The coupled Gaussian model of the constraints relies on an output-as-input encoding. The constraint selection idea is developed by enabling that each constraint can be evaluated for a different uncertain input, thus improving the refinement efficiency. Constraints coupling and selection are gradually implement in 3 algorithm variants which are compared to a reference Bayesian approach. The results are promising in terms of convergence speed, accuracy and stability as observed on a 2, a 4 and a 27-dimensional problems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Revisiting Bayesian Optimization in the light of the COCO benchmark

It is commonly believed that Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithms are highly efficient for optimizing numerically costly functions. However, BO is not often compared to widely different alternatives, and is mostly tested on narrow sets of problems (multimodal, low-dimensional functions), which makes it difficult to assess where (or if) they actually achieve state-of-the-art performance. Moreover, several aspects in the design of these algorithms vary across implementations without a clear recommendation emerging from current practices, and many of these design choices are not substantiated by authoritative test campaigns. This article reports a large investigation about the effects on the performance of (Gaussian process based) BO of common and less common design choices. The experiments are carried out with the established COCO (COmparing Continuous Optimizers) software. It is found that a small initial budget, a quadratic trend, high-quality optimization of the acquisition criterion bring consistent progress. Using the GP mean as an occasional acquisition contributes to a negligible additional improvement. Warping degrades performance. The Matérn 5/2 kernel is a good default but it may be surpassed by the exponential kernel on irregular functions. Overall, the best EGO variants are competitive or improve over state-of-the-art algorithms in dimensions less or equal to 5 for multimodal functions. The code developed for this study makes the new version (v2.1.1) of the R package DiceOptim available on CRAN. The structure of the experiments by function groups allows to define priorities for future research on Bayesian optimization.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Modeling and Optimization with Gaussian Processes in Reduced Eigenbases -- Extended Version

Parametric shape optimization aims at minimizing an objective function f(x) where x are CAD parameters. This task is difficult when f is the output of an expensive-to-evaluate numerical simulator and the number of CAD parameters is large. Most often, the set of all considered CAD shapes resides in a manifold of lower effective dimension in which it is preferable to build the surrogate model and perform the optimization. In this work, we uncover the manifold through a high-dimensional shape mapping and build a new coordinate system made of eigenshapes. The surrogate model is learned in the space of eigenshapes: a regularized likelihood maximization provides the most relevant dimensions for the output. The final surrogate model is detailed (anisotropic) with respect to the most sensitive eigenshapes and rough (isotropic) in the remaining dimensions. Last, the optimization is carried out with a focus on the critical dimensions, the remaining ones being coarsely optimized through a random embedding and the manifold being accounted for through a replication strategy. At low budgets, the methodology leads to a more accurate model and a faster optimization than the classical approach of directly working with the CAD parameters.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Targeting Solutions in Bayesian Multi-Objective Optimization: Sequential and Batch Versions

Multi-objective optimization aims at finding trade-off solutions to conflicting objectives. These constitute the Pareto optimal set. In the context of expensive-to-evaluate functions, it is impossible and often non-informative to look for the entire set. As an end-user would typically prefer a certain part of the objective space, we modify the Bayesian multi-objective optimization algorithm which uses Gaussian Processes to maximize the Expected Hypervolume Improvement, to focus the search in the preferred region. The cumulated effects of the Gaussian Processes and the targeting strategy lead to a particularly efficient convergence to the desired part of the Pareto set. To take advantage of parallel computing, a multi-point extension of the targeting criterion is proposed and analyzed.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Budgeted Multi-Objective Optimization with a Focus on the Central Part of the Pareto Front -- Extended Version

Optimizing nonlinear systems involving expensive computer experiments with regard to conflicting objectives is a common challenge. When the number of experiments is severely restricted and/or when the number of objectives increases, uncovering the whole set of Pareto optimal solutions is out of reach, even for surrogate-based approaches: the proposed solutions are sub-optimal or do not cover the front well. As non-compromising optimal solutions have usually little point in applications, this work restricts the search to solutions that are close to the Pareto front center. The article starts by characterizing this center, which is defined for any type of front. Next, a Bayesian multi-objective optimization method for directing the search towards it is proposed. Targeting a subset of the Pareto front allows an improved optimality of the solutions and a better coverage of this zone, which is our main concern. A criterion for detecting convergence to the center is described. If the criterion is triggered, a widened central part of the Pareto front is targeted such that sufficiently accurate convergence to it is forecasted within the remaining budget. Numerical experiments show how the resulting algorithm, C-EHI, better locates the central part of the Pareto front when compared to state-of-the-art Bayesian algorithms.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Safety-margin-based design and redesign considering mixed epistemic model uncertainty and aleatory parameter uncertainty

At the initial design stage engineers often rely on low-fidelity models that have high epistemic uncertainty. Traditional safety-margin-based deterministic design resorts to testing (e.g. prototype experiment, evaluation of high-fidelity simulation, etc.) to reduce epistemic uncertainty and achieve targeted levels of safety. Testing is used to calibrate models and prescribe redesign when tests are not passed. After calibration, reduced epistemic model uncertainty can be leveraged through redesign to restore safety or improve design performance; however, redesign may be associated with substantial costs or delays. In this paper, a methodology is described for optimizing the safety-margin-based design, testing, and redesign process to allow the designer to tradeoff between the risk of future redesign and the possible performance and reliability benefits. The proposed methodology represents the epistemic model uncertainty with a Kriging surrogate and is applicable in a wide range of design problems. The method is illustrated on a cantilever beam bending example and then a sounding rocket example. It is shown that redesign acts as a type of quality control measure to prevent an undesirable initial design from being accepted as the final design. It is found that the optimal design/redesign strategy for maximizing expected design performance includes not only redesign to correct an initial design that is later revealed to be unsafe, but also redesign to improve performance when an initial design is later revealed to be too conservative (e.g. too heavy).

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Global sensitivity analysis for optimization with variable selection

The optimization of high dimensional functions is a key issue in engineering problems but it frequently comes at a cost that is not acceptable since it usually involves a complex and expensive computer code. Engineers often overcome this limitation by first identifying which parameters drive the most the function variations: non-influential variables are set to a fixed value and the optimization procedure is carried out with the remaining influential variables. Such variable selection is performed through influence measures that are meaningful for regression problems. However it does not account for the specific structure of optimization problems where we would like to identify which variables most lead to constraints satisfaction and low values of the objective function. In this paper, we propose a new sensitivity analysis that accounts for the specific aspects of optimization problems. In particular, we introduce an influence measure based on the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion to characterize whether a design variable matters to reach low values of the objective function and to satisfy the constraints. This sensitivity measure makes it possible to sort the inputs and reduce the problem dimension. We compare a random and a greedy strategies to set the values of the non-influential variables before conducting a local optimization. Applications to several test-cases show that this variable selection and the greedy strategy significantly reduce the number of function evaluations at a limited cost in terms of solution performance.

stat.ML↗