A hybrid proper orthogonal decomposition and diffusion framework for reduced-order forecasting of turbulent flow dynamics
Forecasting turbulent flow dynamics requires a balance between predictive fidelity and computational efficiency. Diffusion-based generative models can represent complex spatiotemporal dynamics, but their application to high-dimensional turbulent flows remains computationally expensive. In contrast, proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) provides compact, physically interpretable reduced-order representations, although aggressive modal truncation can remove relevant flow structures. This work introduces a hybrid reduced-order generative forecasting framework that combines POD with Generative Learning of Effective Dynamics (G-LED). The method performs temporal prediction in a physics-based modal space and uses diffusion-based reconstruction to recover physically meaningful flow-field representations. It is assessed using experimental measurements of the turbulent wake behind a circular cylinder. Three configurations are compared: full-field G-LED, global POD-G-LED, and localized POD-G-LED. Full-field G-LED provides the highest fidelity, preserving richer vorticity fluctuations and more consistent turbulent kinetic energy distributions, but requires approximately 17 h for diffusion-model training, 7 h for Transformer training, and 3 min to predict 100 future snapshots. By transferring prediction to a reduced POD space, global POD-G-LED reduces these costs to approximately 8 h, 2 h, and 50 s, respectively, while retaining dominant wake organization and coherent energetic structures. A localized POD-G-LED formulation assigns different modal resolutions to distinct wake regions and improves vorticity statistics and energetic distributions relative to the global reduced-order configuration. These results show that coupling physics-based modal representations with diffusion-based generative reconstruction offers an effective route to efficient turbulent-flow forecasting.