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Rodrigo Targino

Publications and source records attributed to Rodrigo Targino.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Robust risk measures: an averaging approach

We develop an averaging approach to robust risk measurement under payoff uncertainty. Instead of taking a worst-case value over an uncertainty neighborhood, we weight nearby payoffs more heavily under a chosen metric and average the baseline risk measure. We prove continuity in the neighborhood radius and provide a stable large-radius behavior. In Banach lattices, the approach leads to a convex risk measure and under separability of the space, a dual representation through a penalty term based on an inf-convolution taken over a Gelfand integral constraint. We also relate our veraging to aggregation at the distribution and quantile levels of payoffs, obtaining dominance and coincidence results. Numerical illustrations are conducted to verify calibration and sensitivity.

q-fin.MF

Actuarial Learning for Pension Fund Mortality Forecasting

For the assessment of the financial soundness of a pension fund, it is necessary to take into account mortality forecasting so that longevity risk is consistently incorporated into future cash flows. In this article, we employ machine learning models applied to actuarial science ({\it actuarial learning}) to make mortality predictions for a relevant sample of pension funds' participants. Actuarial learning represents an emerging field that involves the application of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in actuarial science. This encompasses the use of algorithms and computational models to analyze large sets of actuarial data, such as regression trees, random forest, boosting, XGBoost, CatBoost, and neural networks (eg. FNN, LSTM, and MHA). Our results indicate that some ML/AI algorithms present competitive out-of-sample performance when compared to the classical Lee-Carter model. This may indicate interesting alternatives for consistent liability evaluation and effective pension fund risk management.

stat.ML