arXiv subjects

Roger Guimera

Publications and source records attributed to Roger Guimera.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Limits of spectral learning under noise

Learning functional relationships from noisy data is a central problem in scientific inference. Spectral methods approximate unknown functions by expanding them in a basis and estimating the corresponding coefficients from data, but the stability of these coefficients under noise remains poorly understood. Here we study supervised regression with additive label noise using sparse spectral representations across multiple bases and dimensions. We show that noise induces a predictable drift in the learned coefficient vector whose magnitude depends on the effective number of active spectral modes. After whitening the empirical feature geometry, we derive a closed-form expression for the overlap between noisy and noiseless coefficient vectors, revealing a universal degradation curve governed by a single intrinsic noise scale. Numerical experiments across Fourier, Legendre, Bessel, and Haar bases confirm the theoretical prediction. The results demonstrate that spectral learning exhibits a fundamental noise threshold beyond which coefficient estimates become unstable, placing intrinsic limits on recovering functional structure from noisy data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Bayesian symbolic regression: Automated equation discovery from a physicists' perspective

Symbolic regression automates the process of learning closed-form mathematical models from data. Standard approaches to symbolic regression, as well as newer deep learning approaches, rely on heuristic model selection criteria, heuristic regularization, and heuristic exploration of model space. Here, we discuss the probabilistic approach to symbolic regression, an alternative to such heuristic approaches with direct connections to information theory and statistical physics. We show how the probabilistic approach establishes model plausibility from basic considerations and explicit approximations, and how it provides guarantees of performance that heuristic approaches lack. We also discuss how the probabilistic approach compels us to consider model ensembles, as opposed to single models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Gender and the influence of research environment in topic selection of early-career faculty in STEM

We study the influence that research environments have in shaping careers of early-career faculty in terms of their research portfolio. We find that departments exert an attractive force over early-career newcomer faculty, who after their incorporation increase their within-department collaborations, and work on topics closer to those of incumbent faculty. However, these collaborations are not gender blind: Newcomers collaborate less than expected with female senior incumbents. The analysis of departments grouped by fraction of female incumbents reveals that female newcomers in departments with above the median fractions of female incumbents tend to select research topics farther from their department than female newcomers in the remaining departments -- a difference we do not observe for male newcomers. Our results suggest a relationship between the collaboration deficit with female incumbents and the selection of research topics of female early-faculty, thus highlighting the importance of studying research environments to fully understand gender differences in academia.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Differences in collaboration structures and impact among prominent researchers in Europe and North America

Scientists collaborate through intricate networks, which impact the quality and scope of their research. At the same time, funding and institutional arrangements, as well as scientific and political cultures, affect the structure of collaboration networks. Since such arrangements and cultures differ across regions in the world in systematic ways, we surmise that collaboration networks and impact should also differ systematically across regions. To test this, we compare the structure of collaboration networks among prominent researchers in North America and Europe. We find that prominent researchers in Europe establish denser collaboration networks, whereas those in North-America establish more decentralized networks. We also find that the impact of the publications of prominent researchers in North America is significantly higher than for those in Europe, both when they collaborate with other prominent researchers and when they do not. Although Europeans collaborate with other prominent researchers more often, which increases their impact, we also find that repeated collaboration among prominent researchers decreases the synergistic effect of collaborating.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Fundamental limits to learning closed-form mathematical models from data

Given a finite and noisy dataset generated with a closed-form mathematical model, when is it possible to learn the true generating model from the data alone? This is the question we investigate here. We show that this model-learning problem displays a transition from a low-noise phase in which the true model can be learned, to a phase in which the observation noise is too high for the true model to be learned by any method. Both in the low-noise phase and in the high-noise phase, probabilistic model selection leads to optimal generalization to unseen data. This is in contrast to standard machine learning approaches, including artificial neural networks, which in this particular problem are limited, in the low-noise phase, by their ability to interpolate. In the transition region between the learnable and unlearnable phases, generalization is hard for all approaches including probabilistic model selection.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Node metadata can produce predictability transitions in network inference problems

Network inference is the process of learning the properties of complex networks from data. Besides using information about known links in the network, node attributes and other forms of network metadata can help to solve network inference problems. Indeed, several approaches have been proposed to introduce metadata into probabilistic network models and to use them to make better inferences. However, we know little about the effect of such metadata in the inference process. Here, we investigate this issue. We find that, rather than affecting inference gradually, adding metadata causes abrupt transitions in the inference process and in our ability to make accurate predictions, from a situation in which metadata does not play any role to a situation in which metadata completely dominates the inference process. When network data and metadata are partly correlated, metadata optimally contributes to the inference process at the transition between data-dominated and metadata-dominated regimes.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2021

Complex decision-making strategies in a stock market experiment explained as the combination of few simple strategies

Many studies have shown that there are regularities in the way human beings make decisions. However, our ability to obtain models that capture such regularities and can accurately predict unobserved decisions is still limited. We tackle this problem in the context of individuals who are given information relative to the evolution of market prices and asked to guess the direction of the market. We use a networks inference approach with stochastic block models (SBM) to find the model and network representation that is most predictive of unobserved decisions. Our results suggest that users mostly use recent information (about the market and about their previous decisions) to guess. Furthermore, the analysis of SBM groups reveals a set of strategies used by players to process information and make decisions that is analogous to behaviors observed in other contexts. Our study provides and example on how to quantitatively explore human behavior strategies by representing decisions as networks and using rigorous inference and model-selection approaches.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2020

Bayesian machine scientist to compare data collapses for the Nikuradse dataset

Ever since Nikuradse's experiments on turbulent friction in 1933, there have been theoretical attempts to describe his measurements by collapsing the data into single-variable functions. However, this approach, which is common in other areas of physics and in other fields, is limited by the lack of rigorous quantitative methods to compare alternative data collapses. Here, we address this limitation by using an unsupervised method to find analytic functions that optimally describe each of the data collapses for the Nikuradse dataset. By descaling these analytic functions, we show that a low dispersion of the scaled data does not guarantee that a data collapse is a good description of the original data. In fact, we find that, out of all the proposed data collapses, the original one proposed by Prandtl and Nikuradse over 80 years ago provides the best description of the data so far, and that it also agrees well with recent experimental data, provided that some model parameters are allowed to vary across experiments.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2020

A Bayesian machine scientist to aid in the solution of challenging scientific problems

Closed-form, interpretable mathematical models have been instrumental for advancing our understanding of the world; with the data revolution, we may now be in a position to uncover new such models for many systems from physics to the social sciences. However, to deal with increasing amounts of data, we need "machine scientists" that are able to extract these models automatically from data. Here, we introduce a Bayesian machine scientist, which establishes the plausibility of models using explicit approximations to the exact marginal posterior over models and establishes its prior expectations about models by learning from a large empirical corpus of mathematical expressions. It explores the space of models using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We show that this approach uncovers accurate models for synthetic and real data and provides out-of-sample predictions that are more accurate than those of existing approaches and of other nonparametric methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Optimal prediction of decisions and model selection in social dilemmas using block models

Advancing our understanding of human behavior hinges on the ability of theories to unveil the mechanisms underlying such behaviors. Measuring the ability of theories and models to predict unobserved behaviors provides a principled method to evaluate their merit and, thus, to help establish which mechanisms are most plausible. Here, we propose models and develop rigorous inference approaches to predict strategic decisions in dyadic social dilemmas. In particular, we use bipartite stochastic block models that incorporate information about the dilemmas faced by individuals. We show, combining these models with empirical data on strategic decisions in dyadic social dilemmas, that individual strategic decisions are to a large extent predictable, despite not being "rational." The analysis of these models also allows us to conclude that: (i) individuals do not perceive games according their game-theoretical structure; (ii) individuals make decisions using combinations of multiple simple strategies, which our approach reveals naturally.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Network-based models for social recommender systems

With the overwhelming online products available in recent years, there is an increasing need to filter and deliver relevant personalized advice for users. Recommender systems solve this problem by modeling and predicting individual preferences for a great variety of items such as movies, books or research articles. In this chapter, we explore rigorous network-based models that outperform leading approaches for recommendation. The network models we consider are based on the explicit assumption that there are groups of individuals and of items, and that the preferences of an individual for an item are determined only by their group memberships. The accurate prediction of individual user preferences over items can be accomplished by different methodologies, such as Monte Carlo sampling or Expectation-Maximization methods, the latter resulting in a scalable algorithm which is suitable for large datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Tensorial and bipartite block models for link prediction in layered networks and temporal networks

Many real-world complex systems are well represented as multilayer networks; predicting interactions in those systems is one of the most pressing problems in predictive network science. To address this challenge, we introduce two stochastic block models for multilayer and temporal networks; one of them uses nodes as its fundamental unit, whereas the other focuses on links. We also develop scalable algorithms for inferring the parameters of these models. Because our models describe all layers simultaneously, our approach takes full advantage of the information contained in the whole network when making predictions about any particular layer. We illustrate the potential of our approach by analyzing two empirical datasets---a temporal network of email communications, and a network of drug interactions for treating different cancer types. We find that modeling all layers simultaneously does result, in general, in more accurate link prediction. However, the most predictive model depends on the dataset under consideration; whereas the node-based model is more appropriate for predicting drug interactions, the link-based model is more appropriate for predicting email communication.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Inferring propagation paths for sparsely observed perturbations on complex networks

In a complex system, perturbations propagate by following paths on the network of interactions among the system's units. In contrast to what happens with the spreading of epidemics, observations of general perturbations are often very sparse in time (there is a single observation of the perturbed system) and in "space" (only a few perturbed and unperturbed units are observed). A major challenge in many areas, from biology to the social sciences, is to infer the propagation paths from observations of the effects of perturbation under these sparsity conditions. We address this problem and show that it is possible to go beyond the usual approach of using the shortest paths connecting the known perturbed nodes. Specifically, we show that a simple and general probabilistic model, which we solved using belief propagation, provides fast and accurate estimates of the probabilities of nodes being perturbed.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Bone fusion in normal and pathological development is constrained by the network architecture of the human skull

The premature fusion of cranial bones, craniosynostosis, affects the correct development of the skull producing morphological malformations in newborns. To assess the susceptibility of each craniofacial articulation to close prematurely, we used a network model of the skull to quantify the link reliability (an index based on stochastic block modeling and Bayesian inference) of each articulation. We show that, of the 93 human skull articulations at birth, the few articulations that are associated with nonsyndromic craniosynostosis conditions have statistically significant lower reliability scores than the others. In a similar way, articulations that close during the normal postnatal development of the skull have also lower reliability scores than those articulations that persist through adult live. These results indicate a relationship between the architecture of the skull network and the specific articulations that close during normal development and in pathological conditions. Our findings suggest that the topological arrangement of skull bones might act as an epigenetic factor, predisposing some articulations to closure, both in normal and pathological development, and also affecting the long-term evolution of the skull.

q-bio.TO↗

arXiv2016

Accurate and scalable social recommendation using mixed-membership stochastic block models

With ever-increasing amounts of online information available, modeling and predicting individual preferences-for books or articles, for example-is becoming more and more important. Good predictions enable us to improve advice to users, and obtain a better understanding of the socio-psychological processes that determine those preferences. We have developed a collaborative filtering model, with an associated scalable algorithm, that makes accurate predictions of individuals' preferences. Our approach is based on the explicit assumption that there are groups of individuals and of items, and that the preferences of an individual for an item are determined only by their group memberships. Importantly, we allow each individual and each item to belong simultaneously to mixtures of different groups and, unlike many popular approaches, such as matrix factorization, we do not assume implicitly or explicitly that individuals in each group prefer items in a single group of items. The resulting overlapping groups and the predicted preferences can be inferred with a expectation-maximization algorithm whose running time scales linearly (per iteration). Our approach enables us to predict individual preferences in large datasets, and is considerably more accurate than the current algorithms for such large datasets.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Long-term evolution of email networks: Statistical regularities, predictability and stability of social behaviors

In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks

Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

A network inference method for large-scale unsupervised identification of novel drug-drug interactions

Characterizing interactions between drugs is important to avoid potentially harmful combinations, to reduce off-target effects of treatments and to fight antibiotic resistant pathogens, among others. Here we present a network inference algorithm to predict uncharacterized drug-drug interactions. Our algorithm takes, as its only input, sets of previously reported interactions, and does not require any pharmacological or biochemical information about the drugs, their targets or their mechanisms of action. Because the models we use are abstract, our approach can deal with adverse interactions, synergistic/antagonistic/suppressing interactions, or any other type of drug interaction. We show that our method is able to accurately predict interactions, both in exhaustive pairwise interaction data between small sets of drugs, and in large-scale databases. We also demonstrate that our algorithm can be used efficiently to discover interactions of new drugs as part of the drug discovery process.

q-bio.MN↗