arXiv subjects

Roger Koppl

Publications and source records attributed to Roger Koppl.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A multi-objective optimization framework for sustainable transitions

Achieving a just and sustainable transition requires the pursuit of multiple social and environmental targets. Two primary barriers impede this process: (1) targets are often in conflict with each other, and (2) policies aimed at these targets are commonly planned in isolation, neglecting complex interdependencies in the system. To address these challenges, we propose a general modeling framework that evaluates the holistic impact of policies and decision-making on sustainability targets while capturing system interdependencies in a policy-target network. Inspired by Kauffman's NK fitness landscape, our framework takes the form of a multi-objective optimization model that employs a dynamic evolutionary algorithm in conjunction with network analysis. Our algorithm accounts for tradeoffs between conflicting targets by dynamically reallocating resources to the most impactful and efficient policies. One key finding indicates that increasing resources generally enhances performance, but marginal gains stagnate at a point of diminishing returns. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the system is primarily driven by three factors: budget constraint, network density (interconnectivity), and policy efficacy. This study serves as a foundational step towards developing a decision-support tool that assists policymakers in achieving optimal outcomes for problems with a large number of dynamically interacting targets.

math.DS↗

arXiv2024

The use of knowledge in open-ended systems

Economists model knowledge use and acquisition as a cause-and-effect calculus associating observations made by a decision-maker about their world with possible underlying causes. Knowledge models are well-established for static contexts, but not for contexts of innovative and unbounded change. We develop a representation of knowledge use and acquisition in open-ended evolutionary systems and demonstrate its primary results, including that observers embedded in open-ended evolutionary systems can agree to disagree and that their ability to theorize about their systems is fundamentally local and constrained to their frame of reference what we call frame relativity. The results of our framework formalize local knowledge use, the many-selves interpretation of reasoning through time, and motivate the emergence of nonlogical modes of reasoning like institutional and aesthetic codes.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2023

Bespoke scapegoats: Scientific advisory bodies and blame avoidance in the Covid-19 pandemic and beyond

Scholars have not asked why so many governments created ad hoc scientific advisory bodies (ahSABs) to address the Covid-19 pandemic instead of relying on existing public health infrastructure. We address this neglected question with an exploratory study of the US, UK, Sweden, Italy, Poland, and Uganda. Drawing on our case studies and the blame-avoidance literature, we find that ahSABs are created to excuse unpopular policies and take the blame should things go wrong. Thus, membership typically represents a narrow range of perspectives. An ahSAB is a good scapegoat because it does little to reduce government discretion and has limited ability to deflect blame back to government. Our explanation of our deviant case of Sweden, that did not create and ahSAB, reinforces our general principles. We draw the policy inference that ahSAB membership should be vetted by the legislature to ensure broad membership.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2018

A Simple Combinatorial Model of World Economic History

We use a simple combinatorial model of technological change to explain the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution was a sudden large improvement in technology, which resulted in significant increases in human wealth and life spans. In our model, technological change is combining or modifying earlier goods to produce new goods. The underlying process, which has been the same for at least 200,000 years, was sure to produce a very long period of relatively slow change followed with probability one by a combinatorial explosion and sudden takeoff. Thus, in our model, after many millennia of relative quiescence in wealth and technology, a combinatorial explosion created the sudden takeoff of the Industrial Revolution.

econ.GN↗