arXiv subjects

Roger Smith

Publications and source records attributed to Roger Smith.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Data downloaded via parachute from a NASA super-pressure balloon

In April to May 2023, the superBIT telescope was lifted to the Earth's stratosphere by a helium-filled super-pressure balloon, to acquire astronomical imaging from above (99.5% of) the Earth's atmosphere. It was launched from New Zealand then, for 40 days, circumnavigated the globe five times at a latitude 40 to 50 degrees South. Attached to the telescope were four 'DRS' (Data Recovery System) capsules containing 5 TB solid state data storage, plus a GNSS receiver, Iridium transmitter, and parachute. Data from the telescope were copied to these, and two were dropped over Argentina. They drifted 61 km horizontally while they descended 32 km, but we predicted their descent vectors within 2.4 km: in this location, the discrepancy appears irreducible below 2 km because of high speed, gusty winds and local topography. The capsules then reported their own locations to within a few metres. We recovered the capsules and successfully retrieved all of superBIT's data - despite the telescope itself being later destroyed on landing.

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arXiv2023

SRGeJ045359.9+622444: A 55-min Period Eclipsing AM CVn Discovered from a Joint SRG/eROSITA + ZTF Search

AM CVn systems are ultra-compact binaries where a white dwarf accretes from a helium-rich degenerate or semi-degenerate donor. Some AM CVn systems will be among the loudest sources of gravitational waves for the upcoming Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), yet the formation channel of AM CVns remains uncertain. We report the study and characterisation of a new eclipsing AM CVn, SRGeJ045359.9+622444 (hereafter SRGeJ0453), discovered from a joint SRG/eROSITA and ZTF program to identify cataclysmic variables (CVs). We obtained optical photometry to confirm the eclipse of SRGeJ0453 and determine the orbital period to be $P_\textrm{orb} = 55.0802 \pm 0.0003$ min. We constrain the binary parameters by modeling the high-speed photometry and radial velocity curves and find $M_\textrm{donor} = 0.044 \pm0.024 M_{\odot}$ and $R_\textrm{donor}=0.078 \pm 0.012 R_{\odot}$. The X-ray spectrum is approximated by a power-law model with an unusually flat photon index of $Γ\sim 1$ previously seen in magnetic CVs with SRG/eROSITA, but verifying the magnetic nature of SRGeJ0453 requires further investigation. Optical spectroscopy suggests that the donor star of SRGeJ0453 could have initially been a He star or a He white dwarf. SRGeJ0453 is the ninth eclipsing AM CVn system published to date, and its lack of optical outbursts have made it elusive in previous surveys. The discovery of SRGeJ0453 using joint X-ray and optical surveys highlights the potential for discovering similar systems in the near future.

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arXiv2023

A Search for Extragalactic Fast Blue Optical Transients in ZTF and the Rate of AT2018cow-like Transients

We present a search for extragalactic fast blue optical transients (FBOTs) during Phase I of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). We identify 38 candidates with durations above half-maximum light 1 d < t1/2 < 12 d, of which 28 have blue (g-r<-0.2 mag) colors at peak light. Of the 38 transients (28 FBOTs), 19 (13) can be spectroscopically classified as core-collapse supernovae (SNe): 11 (8) H- or He-rich (Type II/IIb/Ib) SNe, 6 (4) interacting (Type IIn/Ibn) SNe, and 2 (1) H&He-poor (Type Ic/Ic-BL) SNe. Two FBOTs (published previously) had high-S/N predominantly featureless spectra and luminous radio emission: AT2018lug and AT2020xnd. Seven (five) did not have a definitive classification: AT 2020bdh showed tentative broad H$α$ in emission, and AT 2020bot showed unidentified broad features and was 10 kpc offset from the center of an early-type galaxy. Ten (six) have no spectroscopic observations or redshift measurements. We present multiwavelength (radio, millimeter, and/or X-ray) observations for five FBOTs (three Type Ibn, one Type IIn/Ibn, one Type IIb). Additionally, we search radio-survey (VLA and ASKAP) data to set limits on the presence of radio emission for 22 of the transients. All X-ray and radio observations resulted in non-detections; we rule out AT2018cow-like X-ray and radio behavior for five FBOTs and more luminous emission (such as that seen in the Camel) for four additional FBOTs. We conclude that exotic transients similar to AT2018cow, the Koala, and the Camel represent a rare subset of FBOTs, and use ZTF's SN classification experiments to measure the rate to be at most 0.1% of the local core-collapse SN rate.

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arXiv2023

SN 2020udy: a SN Iax with strict limits on interaction consistent with a helium-star companion

Early observations of transient explosions can provide vital clues to their progenitor origins. In this paper we present the nearby Type Iax (02cx-like) supernova (SN), SN 2020udy that was discovered within hours ($\sim$7 hr) of estimated first light. An extensive dataset of ultra-violet, optical, and near-infrared observations was obtained, covering out to $\sim$150 d after explosion. SN 2020udy peaked at -17.86$\pm$0.43 mag in the r band and evolved similarly to other 'luminous' SNe Iax, such as SNe 2005hk and 2012Z. Its well-sampled early light curve allows strict limits on companion interaction to be placed. Main-sequence companion stars with masses of 2 and 6 M$_\odot$ are ruled out at all viewing angles, while a helium-star companion is allowed from a narrow range of angles (140-180$^\circ$ away from the companion). The spectra and light curves of SN2020udy are in good agreement with those of the 'N5def' deflagration model of a near Chandrasekhar-mass carbon-oxygen white dwarf. However, as has been seen in previous studies of similar luminosity events, SN 2020udy evolves slower than the model. Broad-band linear polarisation measurements taken at and after peak are consistent with no polarisation, in agreement with the predictions of the companion-star configuration from the early light curve measurements. The host galaxy environment is low metallicity and is consistent with a young stellar population. Overall, we find the most plausible explosion scenario to be the incomplete disruption of a CO white dwarf near the Chandrasekhar-mass limit, with a helium-star companion.

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arXiv2023

Orbital decay in an accreting and eclipsing 13.7 minute orbital period binary with a luminous donor

We report the discovery of ZTF J0127+5258, a compact mass-transferring binary with an orbital period of 13.7 minutes. The system contains a white dwarf accretor, which likely originated as a post-common envelope carbon-oxygen (CO) white dwarf, and a warm donor ($T_{\rm eff,\,donor}= 16,400\pm1000\,\rm K$). The donor probably formed during a common envelope phase between the CO white dwarf and an evolving giant which left behind a helium star or helium white dwarf in a close orbit with the CO white dwarf. We measure gravitational wave-driven orbital inspiral with $\sim 35σ$ significance, which yields a joint constraint on the component masses and mass transfer rate. While the accretion disk in the system is dominated by ionized helium emission, the donor exhibits a mixture of hydrogen and helium absorption lines. Phase-resolved spectroscopy yields a donor radial-velocity semi-amplitude of $771\pm27\,\rm km\, s^{-1}$, and high-speed photometry reveals that the system is eclipsing. We detect a {\it Chandra} X-ray counterpart with $L_{X}\sim 3\times 10^{31}\,\rm erg\,s^{-1}$. Depending on the mass-transfer rate, the system will likely evolve into either a stably mass-transferring helium CV, merge to become an R Crb star, or explode as a Type Ia supernova in the next million years. We predict that the Laser Space Interferometer Antenna (LISA) will detect the source with a signal-to-noise ratio of $24\pm6$ after 4 years of observations. The system is the first \emph{LISA}-loud mass-transferring binary with an intrinsically luminous donor, a class of sources that provide the opportunity to leverage the synergy between optical and infrared time domain surveys, X-ray facilities, and gravitational-wave observatories to probe general relativity, accretion physics, and binary evolution.

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arXiv2022

The prevalence and influence of circumstellar material around hydrogen-rich supernova progenitors

Narrow transient emission lines (flash-ionization features) in early supernova (SN) spectra trace the presence of circumstellar material (CSM) around the massive progenitor stars of core-collapse SNe. The lines disappear within days after the SN explosion, suggesting that this material is spatially confined, and originates from enhanced mass loss shortly (months to a few years) prior to explosion. We performed a systematic survey of H-rich (Type II) SNe discovered within less than two days from explosion during the first phase of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) survey (2018-2020), finding thirty events for which a first spectrum was obtained within $< 2$ days from explosion. The measured fraction of events showing flash ionisation features ($>36\%$ at $95\%$ confidence level) confirms that elevated mass loss in massive stars prior to SN explosion is common. We find that SNe II showing flash ionisation features are not significantly brighter, nor bluer, nor more slowly rising than those without. This implies that CSM interaction does not contribute significantly to their early continuum emission, and that the CSM is likely optically thin. We measured the persistence duration of flash ionisation emission and find that most SNe show flash features for $\approx 5 $ days. Rarer events, with persistence timescales $>10$ days, are brighter and rise longer, suggesting these may be intermediate between regular SNe II and strongly-interacting SNe IIn.

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arXiv2022

The Tidal Disruption Event AT2021ehb: Evidence of Relativistic Disk Reflection, and Rapid Evolution of the Disk-Corona System

We present X-ray, UV, optical, and radio observations of the nearby ($\approx78$ Mpc) tidal disruption event (TDE) AT2021ehb/ZTF21aanxhjv during its first 430 days of evolution. AT2021ehb occurs in the nucleus of a galaxy hosting a $\approx 10^{7}\,M_\odot$ black hole ($M_{\rm BH}$ inferred from host galaxy scaling relations). High-cadence Swift and NICER monitoring reveals a delayed X-ray brightening. The spectrum first undergoes a gradual ${\rm soft }\rightarrow{\rm hard}$ transition and then suddenly turns soft again within 3 days at $δt\approx 272$ days during which the X-ray flux drops by a factor of ten. In the joint NICER+NuSTAR observation ($δt =264$ days, harder state), we observe a prominent non-thermal component up to 30 keV and an extremely broad emission line in the iron K band. The bolometric luminosity of AT2021ehb reaches a maximum of $6.0^{+10.4}_{-3.8}\% L_{\rm Edd}$ when the X-ray spectrum is the hardest. During the dramatic X-ray evolution, no radio emission is detected, the UV/optical luminosity stays relatively constant, and the optical spectra are featureless. We propose the following interpretations: (i) the ${\rm soft }\rightarrow{\rm hard}$ transition may be caused by the gradual formation of a magnetically dominated corona; (ii) hard X-ray photons escape from the system along solid angles with low scattering optical depth ($\sim\,$a few) whereas the UV/optical emission is likely generated by reprocessing materials with much larger column density -- the system is highly aspherical; (iii) the abrupt X-ray flux drop may be triggered by the thermal-viscous instability in the inner accretion flow leading to a much thinner disk.

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arXiv2022

Characterization of Low Light Performance of a CMOS sensor for Ultraviolet Astronomical Applications

CMOS detectors offer many advantages over CCDs for optical and UV astronomical applications, especially in space where high radiation tolerance is required. However, astronomical instruments are most often designed for low light-level observations demanding low dark current and read noise, good linearity and high dynamic range, characteristics that have not been widely demonstrated for CMOS imagers. We report the performance, over temperatures from 140 - 240 K, of a radiation hardened SRI 4Kx2K back-side illuminated CMOS image sensor with surface treatments that make it highly sensitive in blue and UV bands. After suppressing emission from glow sites resulting from defects in the engineering grade device examined in this work, a 0.077 me-/s dark current floor is reached at 160 K, rising to 1 me$^-$/s at 184 K, rivaling that of the best CCDs. We examine the trade-off between readout speed and read noise, finding that 1.43 e$^-$ median read noise is achieved using line-wise digital correlated double sampling at 700 kpix/s/ch corresponding to a 1.5 s readout time. The 15 ke$^-$ well capacity in high gain mode extends to 120 ke$^-$ in dual gain mode. Continued collection of photo-generated charge during readout enables a further dynamic range extension beyond $10^6$ e$^-$ effective well capacity with only 1% loss of exposure efficiency by combining short and long exposures. A quadratic fit to correct for non-linearity reduces gain correction residuals from 1.5% to 0.2% in low gain mode and to 0.4% in high gain mode. Cross-talk to adjacent pixels is only 0.4% vertically, 0.6% horizontally and 0.1% diagonally. These characteristics plus the relatively large 10 $μ$m pixel size, quasi 4-side buttability, electronic shutter and sub-array readout make this sensor an excellent choice for wide field astronomical imaging in space, even at FUV wavelengths where sky background is very low.

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arXiv2022

In search of short gamma-ray burst optical counterpart with the Zwicky Transient Facility

The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) triggers on-board in response to $\sim$ 40 short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) per year; however, their large localization regions have made the search for optical counterparts a challenging endeavour. We have developed and executed an extensive program with the wide field of view of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) camera, mounted on the Palomar 48 inch Oschin telescope (P48), to perform target-of-opportunity (ToO) observations on 10 Fermi-GBM SGRBs during 2018 and 2020-2021. Bridging the large sky areas with small field of view optical telescopes in order to track the evolution of potential candidates, we look for the elusive SGRB afterglows and kilonovae (KNe) associated with these high-energy events. No counterpart has yet been found, even though more than 10 ground based telescopes, part of the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) network, have taken part in these efforts. The candidate selection procedure and the follow-up strategy have shown that ZTF is an efficient instrument for searching for poorly localized SGRBs, retrieving a reasonable number of candidates to follow-up and showing promising capabilities as the community approaches the multi-messenger era. Based on the median limiting magnitude of ZTF, our searches would have been able to retrieve a GW170817-like event up to $\sim$ 200 Mpc and SGRB afterglows to z = 0.16 or 0.4, depending on the assumed underlying energy model. Future ToOs will expand the horizon to z = 0.2 and 0.7 respectively.

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arXiv2021

A highly magnetised and rapidly rotating white dwarf as small as the Moon

White dwarfs represent the last stage of evolution of stars with mass less than about eight times that of the Sun and, like other stars, are often found in binaries. If the orbital period of the binary is short enough, energy losses from gravitational-wave radiation can shrink the orbit until the two white dwarfs come into contact and merge. Depending on the component masses, the merger can lead to a supernova of type Ia or result in a massive white dwarf. In the latter case, the white dwarf remnant is expected to be highly magnetised because of the strong magnetic dynamo that should arise during the merger, and be rapidly spinning from the conservation of the orbital angular momentum. Here we report observations of a white dwarf, ZTF J190132.9+145808.7, that exhibits these properties, but to an extreme: a rotation period of 6.94 minutes, a magnetic field ranging between 600 megagauss and 900 megagauss over its surface, and a stellar radius of about 2,100 km, slightly larger than the radius of the Moon. Such a small radius implies that the star's mass is close to the maximum white-dwarf mass, or Chandrasekhar mass. ZTF J190132.9+145808.7 is likely to be cooling through the Urca processes (neutrino emission from electron capture on sodium) because of the high densities reached in its core.

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arXiv2021

Discovery and confirmation of the shortest gamma ray burst from a collapsar

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are among the brightest and most energetic events in the universe. The duration and hardness distribution of GRBs has two clusters, now understood to reflect (at least) two different progenitors. Short-hard GRBs (SGRBs; T90 <2 s) arise from compact binary mergers, while long-soft GRBs (LGRBs; T90 >2 s) have been attributed to the collapse of peculiar massive stars (collapsars). The discovery of SN 1998bw/GRB 980425 marked the first association of a LGRB with a collapsar and AT 2017gfo/GRB 170817A/GW170817 marked the first association of a SGRB with a binary neutron star merger, producing also gravitational wave (GW). Here, we present the discovery of ZTF20abwysqy (AT2020scz), a fast-fading optical transient in the Fermi Satellite and the InterPlanetary Network (IPN) localization regions of GRB 200826A; X-ray and radio emission further confirm that this is the afterglow. Follow-up imaging (at rest-frame 16.5 days) reveals excess emission above the afterglow that cannot be explained as an underlying kilonova (KN), but is consistent with being the supernova (SN). Despite the GRB duration being short (rest-frame T90 of 0.65 s), our panchromatic follow-up data confirms a collapsar origin. GRB 200826A is the shortest LGRB found with an associated collapsar; it appears to sit on the brink between a successful and a failed collapsar. Our discovery is consistent with the hypothesis that most collapsars fail to produce ultra-relativistic jets.

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arXiv2021

The ZTF Source Classification Project: I. Methods and Infrastructure

The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) has been observing the entire northern sky since the start of 2018 down to a magnitude of 20.5 ($5 σ$ for 30s exposure) in $g$, $r$, and $i$ filters. Over the course of two years, ZTF has obtained light curves of more than a billion sources, each with 50-1000 epochs per light curve in $g$ and $r$, and fewer in $i$. To be able to use the information contained in the light curves of variable sources for new scientific discoveries, an efficient and flexible framework is needed to classify them. In this paper, we introduce the methods and infrastructure which will be used to classify all ZTF light curves. Our approach aims to be flexible and modular and allows the use of a dynamical classification scheme and labels, continuously evolving training sets, and the use of different machine learning classifier types and architectures. With this setup, we are able to continuously update and improve the classification of ZTF light curves as new data becomes available, training samples are updated, and new classes need to be incorporated.

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arXiv2020

TDE Hosts are Green and Centrally Concentrated: Signatures of a Post-Merger System

We study the properties of the galaxies hosting the first 19 tidal disruption events (TDEs) detected with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) within the context of a carefully constructed, representative host galaxy sample. We find that the ZTF sample of TDE hosts is dominated by compact "green valley" galaxies. After we restrict the comparison sample to galaxies with a similar concentration, as measured by Sersic index, we find this green valley over representation is even larger. That is, concentrated red sequence galaxies are not producing TDEs at elevated levels. We present host galaxy spectra which show that E+A galaxies are overrepresented in the ZTF sample by a factor of $\approx$22, which is lower than previous TDE host galaxy studies have found. We find that this overrepresentation can be fully accounted for when taking into account the masses, colors, and Sérsic indices of the ZTF TDE hosts. The combination of both green colors and high Sérsic index of the typical TDE host galaxy could be explained if the TDE rate is temporarily enhanced following a merger that leads to a higher central concentration of stars.

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arXiv2020

ZTF20aajnksq (AT2020blt): A Fast Optical Transient at $z \approx 2.9$ With No Detected Gamma-Ray Burst Counterpart

We present ZTF20aajnksq (AT2020blt), a fast-fading ($Δr=2.4$ mag in $Δt=1.3$ days) red ($g-r\approx0.6$ mag) and luminous ($M_{1626}=-25.9$) optical transient at $z=2.9$ discovered by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). AT2020blt shares several features in common with afterglows to long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs): (1) an optical light curve well-described by a broken power-law with a break at $t_\mathrm{j}=1$ day (observer-frame); (2) a luminous $(L_X = 10^{46}$ $\mathrm{erg}$ $\mathrm{s}^{-1})$ X-ray counterpart; and (3) luminous ($L_ν= 4 \times 10^{31}$ $\mathrm{erg}$ $\mathrm{sec}^{-1}$ $\mathrm{Hz}^{-1}$ at 10 GHz) radio emission. However, no GRB was detected in the 0.74d between the last ZTF non-detection ($r > 20.64$) and the first ZTF detection ($r = 19.57$), with an upper limit on the isotropic-equivalent gamma-ray energy release of $E_{γ,\mathrm{iso}} < 7 \times 10^{52}$ erg. AT2020blt is thus the third afterglow-like transient discovered without a detected GRB counterpart (after PTF11agg and ZTF19abvizsw) and the second (after ZTF19abvizsw) with a redshift measurement. We conclude that the properties of AT2020blt are consistent with a classical (initial Lorentz factor $Γ_0 \gtrsim 100$) on-axis GRB that was missed by high-energy satellites. Furthermore, by estimating the rate of transients with light curves similar to that of AT2020blt in ZTF high-cadence data, we agree with previous results that there is no evidence for an afterglow-like phenomenon that is significantly more common than classical GRBs. We conclude by discussing the status and future of fast-transient searches in wide-field high-cadence optical surveys.

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arXiv2020

Optical follow-up of the neutron star-black hole mergers S200105ae and S200115j

LIGO and Virgo's third observing run (O3) revealed the first neutron star-black hole (NSBH) merger candidates in gravitational waves. These events are predicted to synthesize r-process elements creating optical/near-IR "kilonova" (KN) emission. The joint gravitational-wave (GW) and electromagnetic detection of an NSBH merger could be used to constrain the equation of state of dense nuclear matter, and independently measure the local expansion rate of the universe. Here, we present the optical follow-up and analysis of two of the only three high-significance NSBH merger candidates detected to date, S200105ae and S200115j, with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). ZTF observed $\sim$\,48\% of S200105ae and $\sim$\,22\% of S200115j's localization probabilities, with observations sensitive to KNe brighter than $-$17.5\,mag fading at 0.5\,mag/day in g- and r-bands; extensive searches and systematic follow-up of candidates did not yield a viable counterpart. We present state-of-the-art KN models tailored to NSBH systems that place constraints on the ejecta properties of these NSBH mergers. We show that with depths of $\rm m_{\rm AB}\approx 22$ mag, attainable in meter-class, wide field-of-view survey instruments, strong constraints on ejecta mass are possible, with the potential to rule out low mass ratios, high BH spins, and large neutron star radii.

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arXiv2020

A systematic search of Zwicky Transient Facility data for ultracompact binary LISA-detectable gravitational-wave sources

Using photometry collected with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), we are conducting an ongoing survey for binary systems with short orbital periods ($P_{\rm b}<1\rm \,hr)$ with the goal of identifying new gravitational-wave sources detectable by the upcoming Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Here, we present a sample of fifteen binary systems discovered thus far, with orbital periods ranging from $6.91\rm\,min$ to $56.35\rm\,min$. Of the fifteen systems, seven are eclipsing systems which do not show signs of significant mass transfer. Additionally, we have discovered two AM Canum Venaticorum (AM CVn) systems and six systems exhibiting primarily ellipsoidal variations in their light curves. We present follow-up spectroscopy and high-speed photometry confirming the nature of these systems, estimates of their LISA signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), and a discussion of their physical characteristics.

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arXiv2020

A large fraction of hydrogen-rich supernova progenitors experience elevated mass loss shortly prior to explosion

Spectroscopic detection of narrow emission lines traces the presence of circumstellar mass distributions around massive stars exploding as core-collapse supernovae. Transient emission lines disappearing shortly after the supernova explosion suggest that the spatial extent of such material is compact, and hence imply an increased mass loss shortly prior to explosion. Here, we present a systematic survey for such transient emission lines (Flash Spectroscopy) among Type II supernovae detected in the first year of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) survey. We find that at least six out of ten events for which a spectrum was obtained within two days of estimated explosion time show evidence for such transient flash lines. Our measured flash event fraction ($>30\%$ at $95\%$ confidence level) indicates that elevated mass loss is a common process occurring in massive stars that are about to explode as supernovae.

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arXiv2020

Kilonova Luminosity Function Constraints based on Zwicky Transient Facility Searches for 13 Neutron Star Mergers

We present a systematic search for optical counterparts to 13 gravitational wave (GW) triggers involving at least one neutron star during LIGO/Virgo's third observing run. We searched binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star black hole (NSBH) merger localizations with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and undertook follow-up with the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) collaboration. The GW triggers had a median localization of 4480 deg^2, median distance of 267 Mpc and false alarm rates ranging from 1.5 to 1e-25 per yr. The ZTF coverage had a median enclosed probability of 39%, median depth of 20.8mag, and median response time of 1.5 hr. The O3 follow-up by the GROWTH team comprised 340 UVOIR photometric points, 64 OIR spectra, and 3 radio. We find no promising kilonova (radioactivity-powered counterpart) and we convert the upper limits to constrain the underlying kilonova luminosity function. Assuming that all kilonovae are at least as luminous as GW170817 at discovery (-16.1mag), we calculate our joint probability of detecting zero kilonovae is only 4.2%. If we assume that all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6mag (extrapolated peak magnitude of GW170817) and fade at 1 mag/day (similar to GW170817), the joint probability of zero detections is 7%. If we separate the NSBH and BNS populations, the joint probability of zero detections, assuming all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6mag, is 9.7% for NSBH and 7.9% for BNS mergers. Moreover, <57% (<89%) of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6mag assuming flat (fading) evolution, at 90% confidence. If we further account for the online terrestrial probability for each GW trigger, we find that <68% of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6mag. Comparing to model grids, we find that some kilonovae must have Mej < 0.03 Msun or Xlan>1e-4 or phi>30deg to be consistent with our limits. (Abridged)

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