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Rohan Hobbs

Publications and source records attributed to Rohan Hobbs.

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Machine-learning a family of solutions to an optimal pension investment problem

We use a neural network to identify the optimal solutions to a family of pension investment problems, where the parameters determining an investor's risk and consumption preferences are given as inputs to the neural network in addition to economic variables. Training a single network across such a family fails without modification. Our main contribution is a scaling of the loss function that resolves this, together with a proof that the resulting algorithm converges. We use this to develop a practical tool for exploring how pension outcomes vary with preference parameters. We use a Black-Scholes economic model so that we may validate the accuracy of the network using a classical and provably convergent numerical method developed using the duality approach.

q-fin.CP

A comparison of the effectiveness of alternative DC and CDC designs in a UK market

We use three stochastic models to evaluate the effectiveness of a number of possible pension designs which have been proposed for use in the UK. We consider individual DC schemes followed by full annuitisation and a flex-and-fix strategy which combines drawdown with gradual annuitisation. We compare these approaches with collective designs including: a flat-accrual shared-indexation CDC scheme that is similar to the Royal Mail Collective Pension Plan; a dynamic-accrual shared-indexation CDC scheme modelled on the approach considered in the DWP consultation on multi-employer CDC; and an alternative collective design based on a tontine structure. In our comparisons, we tune each strategy to give optimal performance given the stochastic model and a choice of representative risk preferences. We find the collective design based on a tontine structure consistently achieves the best performance in terms of member utility. We discuss the importance of leverage in the optimal investment strategies.

q-fin.PM