Roland J. Veen | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data

Major life events have proven difficult to predict. Does this reflect limits of theory, data, and algorithms, or the large role of chance? We examine one outcome - having a child within three years - through a near-ideal setting for prediction: a data challenge where 147 researchers predicted births for Dutch residents aged 18-45, using survey data and full-population registers. Methods ranged from logistic regression to a large language model and transformers. Predictions were moderately accurate (best F1: register 0.59, survey 0.76); advanced models did not outperform classical ones; and the larger registers did not beat the survey. Simulating the stochastic biology of conception and pregnancy, we estimated a predictive ceiling (survey F1 ~ 0.86-0.94, register 0.88-0.96). Observed performance falls short of this ceiling, implicating imperfect data, methods, and unmodelled chance, while the ceiling itself shows that chance in reproduction alone sets a non-trivial limit on predicting individual lives.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Discriminative Subspace Emersion from learning feature relevances across different populations

In a given classification task, the accuracy of the learner is often hampered by finiteness of the training set, high-dimensionality of the feature space and severe overlap between classes. In the context of interpretable learners, with (piecewise) linear separation boundaries, these issues can be mitigated by careful construction of optimization procedures and/or estimation of relevant features for the task. However, when the task is shared across two disjoint populations the main interest is shifted towards estimating a set of features that discriminate the most between the two, when performing classification. We propose a new Discriminative Subspace Emersion (DSE) method to extend subspace learning toward a general relevance learning framework. DSE allows us to identify the most relevant features in distinguishing the classification task across two populations, even in cases of high overlap between classes. The proposed methodology is designed to work with multiple sets of labels and is derived in principle without being tied to a specific choice of base learner. Theoretical and empirical investigations over synthetic and real-world datasets indicate that DSE accurately identifies a common subspace for the classification across different populations. This is shown to be true for a surprisingly high degree of overlap between classes.

cs.LG↗