arXiv subjects

Roman Garnett

Publications and source records attributed to Roman Garnett.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

A Dynamic, Ordinal Gaussian Process Item Response Theoretic Model

Social scientists are often interested in using ordinal indicators to estimate latent traits that change over time. Frequently, this is done with item response theoretic (IRT) models that describe the relationship between those latent traits and observed indicators. We combine recent advances in Bayesian nonparametric IRT, which makes minimal assumptions on shapes of item response functions, and Gaussian process time series methods to capture dynamic structures in latent traits from longitudinal observations. We propose a generalized dynamic Gaussian process item response theory (GD-GPIRT) as well as a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for estimation of both latent traits and response functions. We evaluate GD-GPIRT in simulation studies against baselines in dynamic IRT, and apply it to various substantive studies, including assessing public opinions on economy environment and congressional ideology related to abortion debate.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Improving Policy-Oriented Agent-Based Modeling with History Matching: A Case Study

Advances in computing power and data availability have led to growing sophistication in mechanistic mathematical models of social dynamics. Increasingly these models are used to inform real-world policy decision-making, often with significant time sensitivity. One such modeling approach is agent-based modeling, which offers particular strengths for capturing spatial and behavioral realism, and for in-silico experiments (varying input parameters and assumptions to explore their downstream impact on key outcomes). To be useful in the real world, these models must be able to qualitatively or quantitatively capture observed empirical phenomena, forming the starting point for subsequent experimentation. Computational constraints often form a significant hurdle to timely calibration and policy analysis in high resolution agent-based models. In this paper, we present a technical solution to address this bottleneck, substantially increasing efficiency and thus widening the range of utility for policy models. We illustrate our approach with a case study using a previously published and widely used epidemiological model.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Idiographic Personality Gaussian Process for Psychological Assessment

We develop a novel measurement framework based on a Gaussian process coregionalization model to address a long-lasting debate in psychometrics: whether psychological features like personality share a common structure across the population, vary uniquely for individuals, or some combination. We propose the idiographic personality Gaussian process (IPGP) framework, an intermediate model that accommodates both shared trait structure across a population and "idiographic" deviations for individuals. IPGP leverages the Gaussian process coregionalization model to handle the grouped nature of battery responses, but adjusted to non-Gaussian ordinal data. We further exploit stochastic variational inference for efficient latent factor estimation required for idiographic modeling at scale. Using synthetic and real data, we show that IPGP improves both prediction of actual responses and estimation of individualized factor structures relative to existing benchmarks. In a third study, we show that IPGP also identifies unique clusters of personality taxonomies in real-world data, displaying great potential in advancing individualized approaches to psychological diagnosis and treatment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Amortized nonmyopic active search via deep imitation learning

Active search formalizes a specialized active learning setting where the goal is to collect members of a rare, valuable class. The state-of-the-art algorithm approximates the optimal Bayesian policy in a budget-aware manner, and has been shown to achieve impressive empirical performance in previous work. However, even this approximate policy has a superlinear computational complexity with respect to the size of the search problem, rendering its application impractical in large spaces or in real-time systems where decisions must be made quickly. We study the amortization of this policy by training a neural network to learn to search. To circumvent the difficulty of learning from scratch, we appeal to imitation learning techniques to mimic the behavior of the expert, expensive-to-compute policy. Our policy network, trained on synthetic data, learns a beneficial search strategy that yields nonmyopic decisions carefully balancing exploration and exploitation. Extensive experiments demonstrate our policy achieves competitive performance at real-world tasks that closely approximates the expert's at a fraction of the cost, while outperforming cheaper baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Probabilistic Prediction of Material Stability: Integrating Convex Hulls into Active Learning

Active learning is a valuable tool for efficiently exploring complex spaces, finding a variety of uses in materials science. However, the determination of convex hulls for phase diagrams does not neatly fit into traditional active learning approaches due to their global nature. Specifically, the thermodynamic stability of a material is not simply a function of its own energy, but rather requires energetic information from all other competing compositions and phases. Here we present Convex hull-aware Active Learning (CAL), a novel Bayesian algorithm that chooses experiments to minimize the uncertainty in the convex hull. CAL prioritizes compositions that are close to or on the hull, leaving significant uncertainty in other compositions that are quickly determined to be irrelevant to the convex hull. The convex hull can thus be predicted with significantly fewer observations than approaches that focus solely on energy. Intrinsic to this Bayesian approach is uncertainty quantification in both the convex hull and all subsequent predictions (e.g., stability and chemical potential). By providing increased search efficiency and uncertainty quantification, CAL can be readily incorporated into the emerging paradigm of uncertainty-based workflows for thermodynamic prediction.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2023

A Visual Active Search Framework for Geospatial Exploration

Many problems can be viewed as forms of geospatial search aided by aerial imagery, with examples ranging from detecting poaching activity to human trafficking. We model this class of problems in a visual active search (VAS) framework, which has three key inputs: (1) an image of the entire search area, which is subdivided into regions, (2) a local search function, which determines whether a previously unseen object class is present in a given region, and (3) a fixed search budget, which limits the number of times the local search function can be evaluated. The goal is to maximize the number of objects found within the search budget. We propose a reinforcement learning approach for VAS that learns a meta-search policy from a collection of fully annotated search tasks. This meta-search policy is then used to dynamically search for a novel target-object class, leveraging the outcome of any previous queries to determine where to query next. Through extensive experiments on several large-scale satellite imagery datasets, we show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms several strong baselines. We also propose novel domain adaptation techniques that improve the policy at decision time when there is a significant domain gap with the training data. Code is publicly available.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

The Behavior and Convergence of Local Bayesian Optimization

A recent development in Bayesian optimization is the use of local optimization strategies, which can deliver strong empirical performance on high-dimensional problems compared to traditional global strategies. The "folk wisdom" in the literature is that the focus on local optimization sidesteps the curse of dimensionality; however, little is known concretely about the expected behavior or convergence of Bayesian local optimization routines. We first study the behavior of the local approach, and find that the statistics of individual local solutions of Gaussian process sample paths are surprisingly good compared to what we would expect to recover from global methods. We then present the first rigorous analysis of such a Bayesian local optimization algorithm recently proposed by M\"uller et al. (2021), and derive convergence rates in both the noisy and noiseless settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Human-Computer Collaboration for Visual Analytics: an Agent-based Framework

The visual analytics community has long aimed to understand users better and assist them in their analytic endeavors. As a result, numerous conceptual models of visual analytics aim to formalize common workflows, techniques, and goals leveraged by analysts. While many of the existing approaches are rich in detail, they each are specific to a particular aspect of the visual analytic process. Furthermore, with an ever-expanding array of novel artificial intelligence techniques and advances in visual analytic settings, existing conceptual models may not provide enough expressivity to bridge the two fields. In this work, we propose an agent-based conceptual model for the visual analytic process by drawing parallels from the artificial intelligence literature. We present three examples from the visual analytics literature as case studies and examine them in detail using our framework. Our simple yet robust framework unifies the visual analytic pipeline to enable researchers and practitioners to reason about scenarios that are becoming increasingly prominent in the field, namely mixed-initiative, guided, and collaborative analysis. Furthermore, it will allow us to characterize analysts, visual analytic settings, and guidance from the lenses of human agents, environments, and artificial agents, respectively.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2023

Nonmyopic Multiclass Active Search with Diminishing Returns for Diverse Discovery

Active search is a setting in adaptive experimental design where we aim to uncover members of rare, valuable class(es) subject to a budget constraint. An important consideration in this problem is diversity among the discovered targets -- in many applications, diverse discoveries offer more insight and may be preferable in downstream tasks. However, most existing active search policies either assume that all targets belong to a common positive class or encourage diversity via simple heuristics. We present a novel formulation of active search with multiple target classes, characterized by a utility function chosen from a flexible family whose members encourage diversity via a diminishing returns mechanism. We then study this problem under the Bayesian lens and prove a hardness result for approximating the optimal policy for arbitrary positive, increasing, and concave utility functions. Finally, we design an efficient, nonmyopic approximation to the optimal policy for this class of utilities and demonstrate its superior empirical performance in a variety of settings, including drug discovery.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Local Bayesian optimization via maximizing probability of descent

Local optimization presents a promising approach to expensive, high-dimensional black-box optimization by sidestepping the need to globally explore the search space. For objective functions whose gradient cannot be evaluated directly, Bayesian optimization offers one solution -- we construct a probabilistic model of the objective, design a policy to learn about the gradient at the current location, and use the resulting information to navigate the objective landscape. Previous work has realized this scheme by minimizing the variance in the estimate of the gradient, then moving in the direction of the expected gradient. In this paper, we re-examine and refine this approach. We demonstrate that, surprisingly, the expected value of the gradient is not always the direction maximizing the probability of descent, and in fact, these directions may be nearly orthogonal. This observation then inspires an elegant optimization scheme seeking to maximize the probability of descent while moving in the direction of most-probable descent. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world objectives show that our method outperforms previous realizations of this optimization scheme and is competitive against other, significantly more complicated baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

The Mixing Thermodynamics and Local Structure of High-entropy Alloys from Randomly Sampled Ordered Configurations

A general method is presented for modeling high entropy alloys as ensembles of randomly sampled, ordered configurations on a given lattice. Statistical mechanics is applied post hoc to derive the ensemble properties as a function of composition and temperature, including the free energy of mixing and local structure. Random sampling is employed to address the high computational costs needed to model alloys with a large number of components. Doing so also provides rigorous convergence criteria, including the quantification of noise due to random sampling, and an estimation of the number of additional samples required to lower this noise to the needed/desired levels. This method is well-suited for a variety of cases: i) high entropy alloys, where standard lattice models are costly; ii) "medium" entropy alloys, where both the entropy and enthalpy play significant roles; and iii) alloys with residual short-range order. Binary to 5-component alloys of the group-IV chalcogenides are used as case examples, for which the predicted miscibility shows excellent agreement with experiment.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2022

A Unified Comparison of User Modeling Techniques for Predicting Data Interaction and Detecting Exploration Bias

The visual analytics community has proposed several user modeling algorithms to capture and analyze users' interaction behavior in order to assist users in data exploration and insight generation. For example, some can detect exploration biases while others can predict data points that the user will interact with before that interaction occurs. Researchers believe this collection of algorithms can help create more intelligent visual analytics tools. However, the community lacks a rigorous evaluation and comparison of these existing techniques. As a result, there is limited guidance on which method to use and when. Our paper seeks to fill in this missing gap by comparing and ranking eight user modeling algorithms based on their performance on a diverse set of four user study datasets. We analyze exploration bias detection, data interaction prediction, and algorithmic complexity, among other measures. Based on our findings, we highlight open challenges and new directions for analyzing user interactions and visualization provenance.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2022

Guided Data Discovery in Interactive Visualizations via Active Search

Recent advances in visual analytics have enabled us to learn from user interactions and uncover analytic goals. These innovations set the foundation for actively guiding users during data exploration. Providing such guidance will become more critical as datasets grow in size and complexity, precluding exhaustive investigation. Meanwhile, the machine learning community also struggles with datasets growing in size and complexity, precluding exhaustive labeling. Active learning is a broad family of algorithms developed for actively guiding models during training. We will consider the intersection of these analogous research thrusts. First, we discuss the nuances of matching the choice of an active learning algorithm to the task at hand. This is critical for performance, a fact we demonstrate in a simulation study. We then present results of a user study for the particular task of data discovery guided by an active learning algorithm specifically designed for this task.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

Damped Lyman-alpha Absorbers from Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR16Q with Gaussian processes

We present a new catalogue of Damped Lyman-$α$ absorbers from SDSS DR16Q, as well as new estimates of their statistical properties. Our estimates are computed with the Gaussian process models presented in Garnett et al. (2017); Ho et al. (2020) with an improved model for marginalising uncertainty in the mean optical depth of each quasar. We compute the column density distribution function (CDDF) at $2 < z < 5$, the line density ($\textrm{d} N/ \textrm{d} X$), and the neutral hydrogen density ($Ω_{\textrm{DLA}}$). Our Gaussian process model provides a posterior probability distribution of the number of DLAs per spectrum, thus allowing unbiased probabilistic predictions of the statistics of DLA populations even with the noisiest data. We measure a non-zero column density distribution function for $N_{\textrm{HI}} < 3 \times 10^{22} \,\textrm{cm}^{-2}$ with $95\%$ confidence limits, and $N_{\textrm{HI}} \lesssim 10^{22} \,\textrm{cm}^{-2}$ for spectra with signal-to-noise ratios $> 4$. Our results for DLA line density and total hydrogen density are consistent with previous measurements. Despite a small bias due to the poorly measured blue edges of the spectra, we demonstrate that our new model can measure the DLA population statistics when the DLA is in the Lyman-$β$ forest region. We verify our results are not sensitive to the signal-to-noise ratios and redshifts of the background quasars although a residual correlation remains for detections from $z_{\textrm{QSO}} < 2.5$, indicating some residual systematics when applying our models on very short spectra, where the SDSS spectral observing window only covers part of the Lyman-$α$ forest.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

Nonmyopic Multifidelity Active Search

Active search is a learning paradigm where we seek to identify as many members of a rare, valuable class as possible given a labeling budget. Previous work on active search has assumed access to a faithful (and expensive) oracle reporting experimental results. However, some settings offer access to cheaper surrogates such as computational simulation that may aid in the search. We propose a model of multifidelity active search, as well as a novel, computationally efficient policy for this setting that is motivated by state-of-the-art classical policies. Our policy is nonmyopic and budget aware, allowing for a dynamic tradeoff between exploration and exploitation. We evaluate the performance of our solution on real-world datasets and demonstrate significantly better performance than natural benchmarks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Competing Models: Inferring Exploration Patterns and Information Relevance via Bayesian Model Selection

Analyzing interaction data provides an opportunity to learn about users, uncover their underlying goals, and create intelligent visualization systems. The first step for intelligent response in visualizations is to enable computers to infer user goals and strategies through observing their interactions with a system. Researchers have proposed multiple techniques to model users, however, their frameworks often depend on the visualization design, interaction space, and dataset. Due to these dependencies, many techniques do not provide a general algorithmic solution to user exploration modeling. In this paper, we construct a series of models based on the dataset and pose user exploration modeling as a Bayesian model selection problem where we maintain a belief over numerous competing models that could explain user interactions. Each of these competing models represent an exploration strategy the user could adopt during a session. The goal of our technique is to make high-level and in-depth inferences about the user by observing their low-level interactions. Although our proposed idea is applicable to various probabilistic model spaces, we demonstrate a specific instance of encoding exploration patterns as competing models to infer information relevance. We validate our technique's ability to infer exploration bias, predict future interactions, and summarize an analytic session using user study datasets. Our results indicate that depending on the application, our method outperforms established baselines for bias detection and future interaction prediction. Finally, we discuss future research directions based on our proposed modeling paradigm and suggest how practitioners can use this method to build intelligent visualization systems that understand users' goals and adapt to improve the exploration process.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

Automated Measurement of Quasar Redshift with a Gaussian Process

We develop an automated technique to measure quasar redshifts in the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Our technique is an extension of an earlier Gaussian process method for detecting damped Lyman-alpha absorbers (DLAs) in quasar spectra with known redshifts. We apply this technique to a subsample of SDSS DR12 with BAL quasars removed and redshift larger than 2.15. We show that we are broadly competitive to existing quasar redshift estimators, disagreeing with the PCA redshift by more than 0.5 in only 0.38% of spectra. Our method produces a probabilistic density function for the quasar redshift, allowing quasar redshift uncertainty to be propagated to downstream users. We apply this method to detecting DLAs, accounting in a Bayesian fashion for redshift uncertainty. Compared to our earlier method with a known quasar redshift, we have a moderate decrease in our ability to detect DLAs, predominantly in the noisiest spectra. The area under curve drops from 0.96 to 0.91. Our code is publicly available.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

Efficient Nonmyopic Bayesian Optimization via One-Shot Multi-Step Trees

Bayesian optimization is a sequential decision making framework for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. Computing a full lookahead policy amounts to solving a highly intractable stochastic dynamic program. Myopic approaches, such as expected improvement, are often adopted in practice, but they ignore the long-term impact of the immediate decision. Existing nonmyopic approaches are mostly heuristic and/or computationally expensive. In this paper, we provide the first efficient implementation of general multi-step lookahead Bayesian optimization, formulated as a sequence of nested optimization problems within a multi-step scenario tree. Instead of solving these problems in a nested way, we equivalently optimize all decision variables in the full tree jointly, in a ``one-shot'' fashion. Combining this with an efficient method for implementing multi-step Gaussian process ``fantasization,'' we demonstrate that multi-step expected improvement is computationally tractable and exhibits performance superior to existing methods on a wide range of benchmarks.

cs.LG↗