arXiv subjects

Roman V. Baluev

Publications and source records attributed to Roman V. Baluev.

27 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2013

PlanetPack: a radial-velocity time-series analysis tool facilitating exoplanets detection, characterization, and dynamical simulations

We present PlanetPack, a new software tool that we developed to facilitate and standardize the advanced analysis of radial velocity (RV) data for the goal of exoplanets detection, characterization, and basic dynamical $N$-body simulations. PlanetPack is a command-line interpreter, that can run either in an interactive mode or in a batch mode of automatic script interpretation. Its major abilities include: (i) Advanced RV curve fitting with the proper maximum-likelihood treatment of unknown RV jitter; (ii) User-friendly multi-Keplerian as well as Newtonian $N$-body RV fits; (iii) Use of more efficient maximum-likelihood periodograms that involve the full multi-planet fitting (sometimes called as ``residual'' or ``recursive'' periodograms); (iv) Easily calculatable parametric 2D likelihood function level contours, reflecting the asymptotic confidence regions; (v) Fitting under some useful functional constraints is user-friendly; (vi) Basic tasks of short- and long-term planetary dynamical simulation using a fast Everhart-type integrator based on Gauss--Legendre spacings; (vii) Fitting the data with red noise (auto-correlated errors); (viii) Various analytical and numerical methods for the tasks of determining the statistical significance. It is planned that further functionality may be added to PlanetPack in the future. During the development of this software, a lot of effort was made to improve the calculational speed, especially for CPU-demanding tasks. PlanetPack was written in pure C++ (standard of 1998/2003), and is expected to be compilable and usable on a wide range of platforms.

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arXiv2012

The impact of red noise in radial velocity planet searches: Only three planets orbiting GJ581?

We perform a detailed analysis of the latest HARPS and Keck radial velocity data for the planet-hosting red dwarf GJ581, which attracted a lot of attention in recent time. We show that these data contain important correlated noise component ("red noise") with the correlation timescale of the order of 10 days. This red noise imposes a lot of misleading effects while we work in the traditional white-noise model. To eliminate these misleading effects, we propose a maximum-likelihood algorithm equipped by an extended model of the noise structure. We treat the red noise as a Gaussian random process with exponentially decaying correlation function. Using this method we prove that: (i) planets b and c do exist in this system, since they can be independently detected in the HARPS and Keck data, and regardless of the assumed noise models; (ii) planet e can also be confirmed independently by the both datasets, although to reveal it in the Keck data it is mandatory to take the red noise into account; (iii) the recently announced putative planets f and g are likely just illusions of the red noise; (iv) the reality of the planet candidate GJ581 d is questionable, because it cannot be detected from the Keck data, and its statistical significance in the HARPS data (as well as in the combined dataset) drops to a marginal level of $\sim 2σ$, when the red noise is taken into account. Therefore, the current data for GJ581 really support existence of no more than four (or maybe even only three) orbiting exoplanets. The planet candidate GJ581 d requests serious observational verification.

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arXiv2012

Distinguishing between a true period and its alias, and other tasks of model discrimination

We consider the task of distinguishing between two different alternative models that can roughly equally explain observed time series data, mainly focusing on the period ambiguity case (aliasing). We propose a test for checking whether the rival models are observationally equivalent for now or they are already distinguishable. It is the Vuong closeness test, which is based on the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion. It is asymptotically normal and can work (in certain sense) even in the misspecified case, when the both proposed alternatives are actually wrong. This test is also very simple for practical use. We apply it to several known extrasolar planetary systems and find that our method often helps to resolve various model ambiguities emerging in astronomical practice, but preventing us from hasty conclusions in other cases.

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arXiv2011

Orbital structure of the GJ876 extrasolar planetary system, based on the latest Keck and HARPS radial velocity data

We use full available array of radial velocity data, including recently published HARPS and Keck observatory sets, to characterize the orbital configuration of the planetary system orbiting GJ876. First, we propose and describe in detail a fast method to fit perturbed orbital configuration, based on the integration of the sensitivity equations inferred by the equations of the original $N$-body problem. Further, we find that it is unsatisfactory to treat the available radial velocity data for GJ876 in the traditional white noise model, because the actual noise appears autocorrelated (and demonstrates non-white frequency spectrum). The time scale of this correlation is about a few days, and the contribution of the correlated noise is about 2 m/s (i.e., similar to the level of internal errors in the Keck data). We propose a variation of the maximum-likelihood algorithm to estimate the orbital configuration of the system, taking into account the red noise effects. We show, in particular, that the non-zero orbital eccentricity of the innermost planet \emph{d}, obtained in previous studies, is likely a result of misinterpreted red noise in the data. In addition to offsets in some orbital parameters, the red noise also makes the fit uncertainties systematically underestimated (while they are treated in the traditional white noise model). Also, we show that the orbital eccentricity of the outermost planet is actually ill-determined, although bounded by $\sim 0.2$. Finally, we investigate possible orbital non-coplanarity of the system, and limit the mutual inclination between the planets \emph{b} and \emph{c} orbits by $5^\circ-15^\circ$, depending on the angular position of the mutual orbital nodes.

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arXiv2009

Detecting non-sinusoidal periodicities in observational data using multi-harmonic periodograms

We address the problem of assessing the statistical significance of candidate periodicities found using the so-called `multi-harmonic' periodogram, which is being used for detection of non-sinusoidal signals, and is based on the least-squares fitting of truncated Fourier series. The recent investigation (Baluev 2008) made for the Lomb-Scargle periodogram is extended to the more general multi-harmonic periodogram. As a result, closed and efficient analytic approximations to the false alarm probability, associated with multi-harmonic periodogram peaks, are obtained. The resulting analytic approximations are tested under various conditions using Monte Carlo simulations. The simulations showed a suitable precision and robustness of these approximations.

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arXiv2008

Accounting for velocity jitter in planet search surveys

The role of radial velocity (RV) jitter in extrasolar planet search surveys is discussed. Based on the maximum likelihood principle, improved statistical algorithms for RV fitting and period search are developed. These algorithms incorporate a built-in jitter determination, so that resulting estimations of planetary parameters account for this jitter automatically. This approach is applied to RV data for several extrasolar planetary systems. It is shown that many RV planet search surveys suffer from periodic systematic errors which increase effective RV jitter and can lead to erroneous conclusions. For instance, the planet candidate HD74156 d may be a false detection made due to annual systematic errors.

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arXiv2008

Resonances of low orders in the planetary system of HD37124

The full set of published radial velocity data (52 measurements from Keck + 58 ones from ELODIE + 17 ones from CORALIE) for the star HD37124 is analysed. Two families of dynamically stable high-eccentricity orbital solutions for the planetary system are found. In the first one, the outer planets c and d are trapped in the 2/1 mean-motion resonance. The second family of solutions corresponds to the 5/2 mean-motion resonance between these planets. In both families, the planets are locked in (or close to) an apsidal corotation resonance. In the case of the 2/1 MMR, it is an asymmetric apsidal corotation (with the difference between the longitudes of periastra $Δω\sim 60^\circ$), whereas in the case of the 5/2 MMR it is a symmetric antialigned one ($Δω= 180^\circ$). It remains also possible that the two outer planets are not trapped in an orbital resonance. Then their orbital eccentricities should be relatively small (less than, say, 0.15) and the ratio of their orbital periods is unlikely to exceed $2.3-2.5$.

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arXiv2008

Optimal strategies of radial velocity observations in planet search surveys

Applications of the theory of optimal design of experiments to radial velocity planet search surveys are considered. Different optimality criteria are discussed, basing on the Fisher, Shannon, and Kullback-Leibler informations. Algorithms of optimal scheduling of RV observations for two important practical problems are considered. The first problem is finding the time for future observations to yield the maximum improvement of the precision of exoplanetary orbital parameters and masses. The second problem is finding the most favourable time for distinguishing alternative orbital fits (the scheduling of discriminating observations). These methods of optimal planning are demonstrated to be potentially efficient for multi-planet extrasolar systems, in particular for resonant ones. In these cases, the optimal dates of observations are often concentrated in quite narrow time segments.

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arXiv2007

Assessing statistical significance of periodogram peaks

The least-squares (or Lomb-Scargle) periodogram is a powerful tool which is used routinely in many branches of astronomy to search for periodicities in observational data. The problem of assessing statistical significance of candidate periodicities for different periodograms is considered. Based on results in extreme value theory, improved analytic estimations of false alarm probabilities are given. They include an upper limit to the false alarm probability (or a lower limit to the significance). These estimations are tested numerically in order to establish regions of their practical applicability.

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