arXiv subjects

Romit Maulik

Publications and source records attributed to Romit Maulik.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Multimodal Spatiotemporal Atmospheric Data Assimilation with Latent Video Flow-matching

Data assimilation (DA) uses Bayesian inference to update the state of a numerical forecast model with observed data. In this study, we propose a fundamentally different, unified approach to atmospheric data assimilation. We use latent video flow-matching to sample temporally consistent trajectories from a prior trained using ERA5 reanalysis (69 variables over an 8-day window). We also use posterior sampling to assimilate real observation sources, such as those from the NOAA Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive and the Integrated Surface Database. Because the prior generates a continuous trajectory, it naturally propagates information between observed and unobserved frames. Therefore, we can perform various DA tasks, such as filtering and smoothing, simply by changing the observed frames. Moreover, we generate full-state ensemble forecasts directly from sparse observations, achieving performance competitive with state-of-the-art observation-to-forecast models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Scale-Aware Learning of Chaotic Dynamics on Unstructured Meshes via Binned Spectral Losses

Surrogate modeling for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems that exhibit chaos requires mechanisms that preserve not only pointwise accuracy but also the scale-dependent structure of physical fields. Bandwise spectral power losses, such as the binned spectral loss function, provide such supervision on structured grids, where Fourier modes define a standard frequency decomposition. On irregular meshes, however, no canonical Fourier basis exists, and spectral representations must be constructed from graph operators induced by mesh connectivity and geometry. In this study, we extend the binned spectral power loss for application to unstructured-mesh surrogate modeling of nonlinear dynamical systems. This is obtained by replacing Fourier bands with graph-Laplacian frequency bands, and we provide scalable Chebyshev and multilevel approximations for improving long-horizon rollout fidelity. In its full-spectrum form, our approach uses graph Laplacian eigenspaces to provide a graph analogue of Fourier band-power matching, but incurs the high cost of spectral decomposition. As a scalable approximation, we replace exact band projectors with sparse Chebyshev polynomial graph filters, avoiding explicit eigendecomposition. When utilizing multilevel graph architectures, we introduce Graph Laplacian Energy Alignment for Meshes (GLEAM), which applies retained-subspace scale-aware supervision across graph hierarchies so that coarse and fine representations are regularized during autoregressive rollout. Our results show that the proposed spectral losses improve long-horizon rollout fidelity and preserve statistical invariants for the forecasting of turbulent flows on unstructured meshes, compared to deterministic baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Multiscale Hypersonic Boundary Layer Reconstruction via Spectral Binning and Subdomain-wise Conditional Diffusion

We propose a multiscale probabilistic reconstruction framework for hypersonic Couette flow, where near-wall states are inferred from limited top-wall observations using conditional diffusion model. The boundary layer is divided into overlapping wall-normal subdomains, and a single height- and Mach-conditioned Elucidating Diffusion Model (EDM) is trained jointly for M=6,7,8 to sample velocity, density, pressure, and temperature fields conditioned on a top-wall boundary slice. A soft overlap inpainting strategy assembles subdomain predictions into full-volume reconstructions while maintaining inter-subdomain continuity and small-scale variability. To improve the spectral fidelity of the generated fields, we introduce a novel bounded binned spectral power (BSP) loss that preserves high-wavenumber content while remaining numerically stable across the diffusion noise schedule. Validation against direct numerical simulation data shows that the model recovers instantaneous structures, spectra, statistical profiles, correlations, and wall quantities across all training Mach numbers, while providing spatially structured uncertainty estimates. The reconstructed Mach-conditioned profiles also collapse under the Trettel-Larsson transformation, indicating consistency with compressibility scaling. These results establish the domain decomposed conditional diffusion model with a bounded binned spectral loss as an effective probabilistic surrogate for near-wall reconstruction in hypersonic wall-bounded turbulence.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2026

Deep Learning of Solver-Aware Turbulence Closures from Nudged LES Dynamics

The differentiable physics paradigm may be leveraged as an a-posteriori approach for discovering turbulence closure models by embedding a neural network parameterization directly inside the solver and optimizing it given potentially sparse target data. This addresses a key limitation of a-priori learning where direct numerical simulation (DNS) data is used to approximate the subgrid stress with the assumption of a low-pass filter. Closures trained in this a-priori manner frequently lead to unstable deployments due to the mismatch between the assumed filter and the effect of numerical discretizations and coarse-graining. In comparison, while typically stable during deployment, a-posteriori learning incurs high computational costs due to the need to backpropagate through a large eddy simulation (LES) solver. Furthermore, a-posteriori methods are challenging to apply broadly since they require significant modification of existing solvers. Finally, both approaches are limited when generalization is desired across different numerical schemes with their implicit filtering characteristics. In this work, we present a deep-learning approach for turbulence closure modeling built on the continuous data assimilation framework. Our approach enables the a-priori training of closures using sparsely observed DNS data without modifying or differentiating through the LES solver, while preserving stability during deployment for the recovery of invariant statistics. We focus on the model's ability to adapt to different discretizations by explicitly conditioning it on the numerical scheme. We use two- and three-dimensional canonical cases to test our framework and show that the learned correction systematically tracks the discretization error of the coarse solver.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive Diffusion Posterior Sampling for Data and Model Fusion of Complex Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

High-fidelity numerical simulations of chaotic, high dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems are computationally expensive, necessitating the development of efficient surrogate models. Most surrogate models for such systems are deterministic, for example when neural operators are involved. However, deterministic models often fail to capture the intrinsic distributional uncertainty of chaotic systems. This work presents a surrogate modeling formulation that leverages generative machine learning, where a deep learning diffusion model is used to probabilistically forecast turbulent flows over long horizons. We introduce a multi-step autoregressive diffusion objective that significantly enhances long-rollout stability compared to standard single-step training. To handle complex, unstructured geometries, we utilize a multi-scale graph transformer architecture incorporating diffusion preconditioning and voxel-grid pooling. More importantly, our modeling framework provides a unified platform that also predicts spatiotemporally important locations for sensor placement, either via uncertainty estimates or through an error-estimation module. Finally, the observations of the ground truth state at these dynamically varying sensor locations are assimilated using diffusion posterior sampling requiring no retraining of the surrogate model. We present our methodology on two-dimensional homogeneous and isotropic turbulence and for a flow over a backwards-facing step, demonstrating its utility in forecasting, adaptive sensor placement, and data assimilation for high dimensional chaotic systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

High-Resolution Climate Projections Using Diffusion-Based Downscaling of a Lightweight Climate Emulator

The proliferation of data-driven models in weather and climate sciences has marked a significant paradigm shift, with advanced models demonstrating exceptional skill in medium-range forecasting. However, these models are often limited by long-term instabilities, climatological drift, and substantial computational costs during training and inference, restricting their broader application for climate studies. Addressing these limitations, Guan et al. (2024) introduced LUCIE, a lightweight, physically consistent climate emulator utilizing a Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) architecture. This model is able to reproduce accurate long-term statistics including climatological mean and seasonal variability. However, LUCIE's native resolution (~300 km) is inadequate for detailed regional impact assessments. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a deep learning-based downscaling framework, leveraging probabilistic diffusion-based generative models with conditional and posterior sampling frameworks. These models downscale coarse LUCIE outputs to 25 km resolution. They are trained on approximately 14,000 ERA5 timesteps spanning 2000-2009 and evaluated on LUCIE predictions from 2010 to 2020. Model performance is assessed through diverse metrics, including latitude-averaged RMSE, power spectrum, probability density functions and First Empirical Orthogonal Function of the zonal wind. We observe that the proposed approach is able to preserve the coarse-grained dynamics from LUCIE while generating fine-scaled climatological statistics at ~28km resolution.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

SC3D: Dynamic and Differentiable Causal Discovery for Temporal and Instantaneous Graphs

Discovering causal structures from multivariate time series is a key problem because interactions span across multiple lags and possibly involve instantaneous dependencies. Additionally, the search space of the dynamic graphs is combinatorial in nature. In this study, we propose Stable Causal Dynamic Differentiable Discovery (SC3D), a two-stage differentiable framework that jointly learns lag-specific adjacency matrices and, if present, an instantaneous directed acyclic graph (DAG). In Stage 1, SC3D performs edge preselection through node-wise prediction to obtain masks for lagged and instantaneous edges, whereas Stage 2 refines these masks by optimizing a likelihood with sparsity along with enforcing acyclicity on the instantaneous block. Numerical results across synthetic SVAR systems, nonlinear and chaotic benchmarks, nonstationary dynamics and real-world datasets demonstrate that SC3D achieves improved stability and more accurate recovery of both lagged and instantaneous causal structures compared to existing baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A Weak Penalty Neural ODE for Learning Chaotic Dynamics from Noisy Time Series

The accurate forecasting of complex, high-dimensional dynamical systems from observational data is a fundamental task across numerous scientific and engineering disciplines. A significant challenge arises from noisy observations of deterministic dynamics, which severely degrade the performance of data-driven models. In chaotic dynamical systems, where small initial errors amplify exponentially, it is particularly difficult to develop a model from noisy data that achieves short-term accuracy while preserving long-term invariant properties. To overcome this, we consider the weak formulation as a complementary approach to the classical L2-loss function for training models of dynamical systems. We empirically verify that the weak formulation, with a proper choice of test function and integration domain, effectively filters noisy data. This insight explains why a weak form loss function is analogous to fitting a model to filtered data and provides a practical way to parameterize the weak form. Subsequently, we demonstrate how this approach overcomes the instability and inaccuracy of standard Neural ODE (NODE) in modeling chaotic systems. Through numerical examples, we show that our proposed training strategy, the Weak Penalty NODE, is computationally efficient, solver-agnostic, and yields accurate and robust forecasts across benchmark chaotic systems and a real-world climate dataset.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Interpretable Diagnostics and Adaptive Data Assimilation for Neural ODEs via Discrete Empirical Interpolation

We present a framework that leverages the Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (DEIM) for interpretable deep learning and dynamical system analysis. Although DEIM efficiently approximates nonlinear terms in projection-based reduced-order models (POD-ROM), its fixed interpolation points are repurposed for identifying dynamically representative spatial structures in learned models. We apply DEIM as an interpretability tool to examine the learned dynamics of a pre-trained Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (NODE) for two-dimensional vortex-merging and backward-facing step flows. DEIM trajectories reveal physically meaningful structures in NODE predictions and expose failure modes when extrapolating to unseen flow configurations. Building on this diagnostic capability, we further introduce a DEIM-guided data assimilation strategy that injects sparse, dynamically representative corrections into the NODE rollout. By allocating a limited nudging budget to DEIM-identified sampling locations, the framework significantly improves long-term stability and predictive accuracy in out-of-distribution scenarios for the two-dimensional vortex-merging flow. Additional experiments for a flow over a backward-facing step reveal regime-dependent gains, with alternative sampling strategies performing competitively as well. These results demonstrate that DEIM can serve as an interpretable diagnostic and control framework for understanding and enhancing neural differential equation models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

MoWE : A Mixture of Weather Experts

Data-driven weather models have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance, yet progress has plateaued in recent years. This paper introduces a Mixture of Experts (MoWE) approach as a novel paradigm to overcome these limitations, not by creating a new forecaster, but by optimally combining the outputs of existing models. The MoWE model is trained with significantly lower computational resources than the individual experts. Our model employs a Vision Transformer-based gating network that dynamically learns to weight the contributions of multiple "expert" models at each grid point, conditioned on forecast lead time. This approach creates a synthesized deterministic forecast that is more accurate than any individual component in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, achieving up to a 10% lower RMSE than the best-performing AI weather model on a 2-day forecast horizon, significantly outperforming individual experts as well as a simple average across experts. This work presents a computationally efficient and scalable strategy to push the state of the art in data-driven weather prediction by making the most out of leading high-quality forecast models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Localized PCA-Net Neural Operators for Scalable Solution Reconstruction of Elliptic PDEs

Neural operator learning has emerged as a powerful approach for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) in a data-driven manner. However, applying principal component analysis (PCA) to high-dimensional solution fields incurs significant computational overhead. To address this, we propose a patch-based PCA-Net framework that decomposes the solution fields into smaller patches, applies PCA within each patch, and trains a neural operator in the reduced PCA space. We investigate two different patch-based approaches that balance computational efficiency and reconstruction accuracy: (1) local-to-global patch PCA, and (2) local-to-local patch PCA. The trade-off between computational cost and accuracy is analyzed, highlighting the advantages and limitations of each approach. Furthermore, within each approach, we explore two refinements for the most computationally efficient method: (i) introducing overlapping patches with a smoothing filter and (ii) employing a two-step process with a convolutional neural network (CNN) for refinement. Our results demonstrate that patch-based PCA significantly reduces computational complexity while maintaining high accuracy, reducing end-to-end pipeline processing time by a factor of 3.7 to 4 times compared to global PCA, thefore making it a promising technique for efficient operator learning in PDE-based systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

LUCIE-3D: A three-dimensional climate emulator for forced responses

We introduce LUCIE-3D, a lightweight three-dimensional climate emulator designed to capture the vertical structure of the atmosphere, respond to climate change forcings, and maintain computational efficiency with long-term stability. Building on the original LUCIE-2D framework, LUCIE-3D employs a Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) backbone and is trained on 30 years of ERA5 reanalysis data spanning eight vertical {\sigma}-levels. The model incorporates atmospheric CO2 as a forcing variable and optionally integrates prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) to simulate coupled ocean--atmosphere dynamics. Results demonstrate that LUCIE-3D successfully reproduces climatological means, variability, and long-term climate change signals, including surface warming and stratospheric cooling under increasing CO2 concentrations. The model further captures key dynamical processes such as equatorial Kelvin waves, the Madden--Julian Oscillation, and annular modes, while showing credible behavior in the statistics of extreme events. Despite requiring longer training than its 2D predecessor, LUCIE-3D remains efficient, training in under five hours on four GPUs. Its combination of stability, physical consistency, and accessibility makes it a valuable tool for rapid experimentation, ablation studies, and the exploration of coupled climate dynamics, with potential applications extending to paleoclimate research and future Earth system emulation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Multimodal Atmospheric Super-Resolution With Deep Generative Models

Score-based diffusion modeling is a generative machine learning algorithm that can be used to sample from complex distributions. They achieve this by learning a score function, i.e., the gradient of the log-probability density of the data, and reversing a noising process using the same. Once trained, score-based diffusion models not only generate new samples but also enable zero-shot conditioning of the generated samples on observed data. This promises a novel paradigm for data and model fusion, wherein the implicitly learned distributions of pretrained score-based diffusion models can be updated given the availability of online data in a Bayesian formulation. In this article, we apply such a concept to the super-resolution of a high-dimensional dynamical system, given the real-time availability of low-resolution and experimentally observed sparse sensor measurements from multimodal data. Additional analysis on how score-based sampling can be used for uncertainty estimates is also provided. Our experiments are performed for a super-resolution task that generates the ERA5 atmospheric dataset given sparse observations from a coarse-grained representation of the same and/or from unstructured experimental observations of the IGRA radiosonde dataset. We demonstrate accurate recovery of the high dimensional state given multiple sources of low-fidelity measurements. We also discover that the generative model can balance the influence of multiple dataset modalities during spatiotemporal reconstructions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

FIGNN: Feature-Specific Interpretability for Graph Neural Network Surrogate Models

This work presents a novel graph neural network (GNN) architecture, the Feature-specific Interpretable Graph Neural Network (FIGNN), designed to enhance the interpretability of deep learning surrogate models defined on unstructured grids in scientific applications. Traditional GNNs often obscure the distinct spatial influences of different features in multivariate prediction tasks. FIGNN addresses this limitation by introducing a feature-specific pooling strategy, which enables independent attribution of spatial importance for each predicted variable. Additionally, a mask-based regularization term is incorporated into the training objective to explicitly encourage alignment between interpretability and predictive error, promoting localized attribution of model performance. The method is evaluated for surrogate modeling of two physically distinct systems: the SPEEDY atmospheric circulation model and the backward-facing step (BFS) fluid dynamics benchmark. Results demonstrate that FIGNN achieves competitive predictive performance while revealing physically meaningful spatial patterns unique to each feature. Analysis of rollout stability, feature-wise error budgets, and spatial mask overlays confirm the utility of FIGNN as a general-purpose framework for interpretable surrogate modeling in complex physical domains.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

SALSA-RL: Stability Analysis in the Latent Space of Actions for Reinforcement Learning

Modern deep reinforcement learning (DRL) methods have made significant advances in handling continuous action spaces. However, real-world control systems, especially those requiring precise and reliable performance, often demand interpretability in the sense of a-priori assessments of agent behavior to identify safe or failure-prone interactions with environments. To address this limitation, this work proposes SALSA-RL (Stability Analysis in the Latent Space of Actions), a novel RL framework that models control actions as dynamic, time-dependent variables evolving within a latent space. By employing a pre-trained encoder-decoder and a state-dependent linear system, this approach enables interpretability through local stability analysis, where instantaneous growth in action-norms can be predicted before their execution. It is demonstrated that SALSA-RL can be deployed in a non-invasive manner for assessing the local stability of actions from pretrained RL agents without compromising on performance across diverse benchmark environments. By enabling a more interpretable analysis of action generation, SALSA-RL provides a powerful tool for advancing the design, analysis, and theoretical understanding of RL systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

CondensNet: Enabling stable long-term climate simulations via hybrid deep learning models with adaptive physical constraints

Accurate and efficient climate simulations are crucial for understanding Earth's evolving climate. However, current general circulation models (GCMs) face challenges in capturing unresolved physical processes, such as cloud and convection. A common solution is to adopt cloud resolving models, that provide more accurate results than the standard subgrid parametrisation schemes typically used in GCMs. However, cloud resolving models, also referred to as super paramtetrizations, remain computationally prohibitive. Hybrid modeling, which integrates deep learning with equation-based GCMs, offers a promising alternative but often struggles with long-term stability and accuracy issues. In this work, we find that water vapor oversaturation during condensation is a key factor compromising the stability of hybrid models. To address this, we introduce CondensNet, a novel neural network architecture that embeds a self-adaptive physical constraint to correct unphysical condensation processes. CondensNet effectively mitigates water vapor oversaturation, enhancing simulation stability while maintaining accuracy and improving computational efficiency compared to super parameterization schemes. We integrate CondensNet into a GCM to form PCNN-GCM (Physics-Constrained Neural Network GCM), a hybrid deep learning framework designed for long-term stable climate simulations in real-world conditions, including ocean and land. PCNN-GCM represents a significant milestone in hybrid climate modeling, as it shows a novel way to incorporate physical constraints adaptively, paving the way for accurate, lightweight, and stable long-term climate simulations.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Binned Spectral Power Loss for Improved Prediction of Chaotic Systems

Forecasting multiscale chaotic dynamical systems, such as turbulent flows, with deep learning remains a formidable challenge due to the spectral bias of neural networks, which hinders the accurate representation of fine-scale structures in long-term predictions. This issue is exacerbated when models are deployed autoregressively, leading to compounding errors and instability. In this work, we introduce a novel approach to mitigate the spectral bias, which we call the Binned Spectral Power (BSP) Loss. The BSP loss is a frequency-domain loss function that adaptively weighs errors in predicting both larger and smaller scales of the dataset. Unlike traditional losses that focus on pointwise misfits, our BSP loss explicitly penalizes deviations in the energy distribution across different scales, promoting stable and physically consistent predictions. We demonstrate that the BSP loss mitigates the well-known problem of spectral bias in deep learning. We further validate our approach for the data-driven high-dimensional time-series forecasting of a range of benchmark chaotic systems, which are typically intractable due to spectral bias, culminating in experiments on canonical turbulent flow benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that the BSP loss significantly improves the stability and spectral accuracy of neural forecasting models without requiring architectural modifications. By directly targeting spectral consistency, our approach paves the way for more robust deep learning models for long-term forecasting of chaotic dynamical systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Semi-Implicit Neural Ordinary Differential Equations

Classical neural ODEs trained with explicit methods are intrinsically limited by stability, crippling their efficiency and robustness for stiff learning problems that are common in graph learning and scientific machine learning. We present a semi-implicit neural ODE approach that exploits the partitionable structure of the underlying dynamics. Our technique leads to an implicit neural network with significant computational advantages over existing approaches because of enhanced stability and efficient linear solves during time integration. We show that our approach outperforms existing approaches on a variety of applications including graph classification and learning complex dynamical systems. We also demonstrate that our approach can train challenging neural ODEs where both explicit methods and fully implicit methods are intractable.

cs.LG↗