arXiv subjects

Romuald Elie

Publications and source records attributed to Romuald Elie.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Generative Adversarial Equilibrium Solvers

We introduce the use of generative adversarial learning to compute equilibria in general game-theoretic settings, specifically the generalized Nash equilibrium (GNE) in pseudo-games, and its specific instantiation as the competitive equilibrium (CE) in Arrow-Debreu competitive economies. Pseudo-games are a generalization of games in which players' actions affect not only the payoffs of other players but also their feasible action spaces. Although the computation of GNE and CE is intractable in the worst-case, i.e., PPAD-hard, in practice, many applications only require solutions with high accuracy in expectation over a distribution of problem instances. We introduce Generative Adversarial Equilibrium Solvers (GAES): a family of generative adversarial neural networks that can learn GNE and CE from only a sample of problem instances. We provide computational and sample complexity bounds, and apply the framework to finding Nash equilibria in normal-form games, CE in Arrow-Debreu competitive economies, and GNE in an environmental economic model of the Kyoto mechanism.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2022

Developing, Evaluating and Scaling Learning Agents in Multi-Agent Environments

The Game Theory & Multi-Agent team at DeepMind studies several aspects of multi-agent learning ranging from computing approximations to fundamental concepts in game theory to simulating social dilemmas in rich spatial environments and training 3-d humanoids in difficult team coordination tasks. A signature aim of our group is to use the resources and expertise made available to us at DeepMind in deep reinforcement learning to explore multi-agent systems in complex environments and use these benchmarks to advance our understanding. Here, we summarise the recent work of our team and present a taxonomy that we feel highlights many important open challenges in multi-agent research.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2022

Learning Equilibria in Mean-Field Games: Introducing Mean-Field PSRO

Recent advances in multiagent learning have seen the introduction ofa family of algorithms that revolve around the population-based trainingmethod PSRO, showing convergence to Nash, correlated and coarse corre-lated equilibria. Notably, when the number of agents increases, learningbest-responses becomes exponentially more difficult, and as such ham-pers PSRO training methods. The paradigm of mean-field games pro-vides an asymptotic solution to this problem when the considered gamesare anonymous-symmetric. Unfortunately, the mean-field approximationintroduces non-linearities which prevent a straightforward adaptation ofPSRO. Building upon optimization and adversarial regret minimization,this paper sidesteps this issue and introduces mean-field PSRO, an adap-tation of PSRO which learns Nash, coarse correlated and correlated equi-libria in mean-field games. The key is to replace the exact distributioncomputation step by newly-defined mean-field no-adversarial-regret learn-ers, or by black-box optimization. We compare the asymptotic complexityof the approach to standard PSRO, greatly improve empirical bandit con-vergence speed by compressing temporal mixture weights, and ensure itis theoretically robust to payoff noise. Finally, we illustrate the speed andaccuracy of mean-field PSRO on several mean-field games, demonstratingconvergence to strong and weak equilibria.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2022

Learning Correlated Equilibria in Mean-Field Games

The designs of many large-scale systems today, from traffic routing environments to smart grids, rely on game-theoretic equilibrium concepts. However, as the size of an $N$-player game typically grows exponentially with $N$, standard game theoretic analysis becomes effectively infeasible beyond a low number of players. Recent approaches have gone around this limitation by instead considering Mean-Field games, an approximation of anonymous $N$-player games, where the number of players is infinite and the population's state distribution, instead of every individual player's state, is the object of interest. The practical computability of Mean-Field Nash equilibria, the most studied Mean-Field equilibrium to date, however, typically depends on beneficial non-generic structural properties such as monotonicity or contraction properties, which are required for known algorithms to converge. In this work, we provide an alternative route for studying Mean-Field games, by developing the concepts of Mean-Field correlated and coarse-correlated equilibria. We show that they can be efficiently learnt in \emph{all games}, without requiring any additional assumption on the structure of the game, using three classical algorithms. Furthermore, we establish correspondences between our notions and those already present in the literature, derive optimality bounds for the Mean-Field - $N$-player transition, and empirically demonstrate the convergence of these algorithms on simple games.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2022

Mastering the Game of Stratego with Model-Free Multiagent Reinforcement Learning

We introduce DeepNash, an autonomous agent capable of learning to play the imperfect information game Stratego from scratch, up to a human expert level. Stratego is one of the few iconic board games that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has not yet mastered. This popular game has an enormous game tree on the order of $10^{535}$ nodes, i.e., $10^{175}$ times larger than that of Go. It has the additional complexity of requiring decision-making under imperfect information, similar to Texas hold'em poker, which has a significantly smaller game tree (on the order of $10^{164}$ nodes). Decisions in Stratego are made over a large number of discrete actions with no obvious link between action and outcome. Episodes are long, with often hundreds of moves before a player wins, and situations in Stratego can not easily be broken down into manageably-sized sub-problems as in poker. For these reasons, Stratego has been a grand challenge for the field of AI for decades, and existing AI methods barely reach an amateur level of play. DeepNash uses a game-theoretic, model-free deep reinforcement learning method, without search, that learns to master Stratego via self-play. The Regularised Nash Dynamics (R-NaD) algorithm, a key component of DeepNash, converges to an approximate Nash equilibrium, instead of 'cycling' around it, by directly modifying the underlying multi-agent learning dynamics. DeepNash beats existing state-of-the-art AI methods in Stratego and achieved a yearly (2022) and all-time top-3 rank on the Gravon games platform, competing with human expert players.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Concave Utility Reinforcement Learning: the Mean-Field Game Viewpoint

Concave Utility Reinforcement Learning (CURL) extends RL from linear to concave utilities in the occupancy measure induced by the agent's policy. This encompasses not only RL but also imitation learning and exploration, among others. Yet, this more general paradigm invalidates the classical Bellman equations, and calls for new algorithms. Mean-field Games (MFGs) are a continuous approximation of many-agent RL. They consider the limit case of a continuous distribution of identical agents, anonymous with symmetric interests, and reduce the problem to the study of a single representative agent in interaction with the full population. Our core contribution consists in showing that CURL is a subclass of MFGs. We think this important to bridge together both communities. It also allows to shed light on aspects of both fields: we show the equivalence between concavity in CURL and monotonicity in the associated MFG, between optimality conditions in CURL and Nash equilibrium in MFG, or that Fictitious Play (FP) for this class of MFGs is simply Frank-Wolfe, bringing the first convergence rate for discrete-time FP for MFGs. We also experimentally demonstrate that, using algorithms recently introduced for solving MFGs, we can address the CURL problem more efficiently.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Solving N-player dynamic routing games with congestion: a mean field approach

The recent emergence of navigational tools has changed traffic patterns and has now enabled new types of congestion-aware routing control like dynamic road pricing. Using the fundamental diagram of traffic flows - applied in macroscopic and mesoscopic traffic modeling - the article introduces a new N-player dynamic routing game with explicit congestion dynamics. The model is well-posed and can reproduce heterogeneous departure times and congestion spill back phenomena. However, as Nash equilibrium computations are PPAD-complete, solving the game becomes intractable for large but realistic numbers of vehicles N. Therefore, the corresponding mean field game is also introduced. Experiments were performed on several classical benchmark networks of the traffic community: the Pigou, Braess, and Sioux Falls networks with heterogeneous origin, destination and departure time tuples. The Pigou and the Braess examples reveal that the mean field approximation is generally very accurate and computationally efficient as soon as the number of vehicles exceeds a few dozen. On the Sioux Falls network (76 links, 100 time steps), this approach enables learning traffic dynamics with more than 14,000 vehicles.

math.DS↗

arXiv2021

Conditional Loss and Deep Euler Scheme for Time Series Generation

We introduce three new generative models for time series that are based on Euler discretization of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) and Wasserstein metrics. Two of these methods rely on the adaptation of generative adversarial networks (GANs) to time series. The third algorithm, called Conditional Euler Generator (CEGEN), minimizes a dedicated distance between the transition probability distributions over all time steps. In the context of Ito processes, we provide theoretical guarantees that minimizing this criterion implies accurate estimations of the drift and volatility parameters. We demonstrate empirically that CEGEN outperforms state-of-the-art and GAN generators on both marginal and temporal dynamics metrics. Besides, it identifies accurate correlation structures in high dimension. When few data points are available, we verify the effectiveness of CEGEN, when combined with transfer learning methods on Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the robustness of our method on various real-world datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Evolutionary Dynamics and $Φ$-Regret Minimization in Games

Regret has been established as a foundational concept in online learning, and likewise has important applications in the analysis of learning dynamics in games. Regret quantifies the difference between a learner's performance against a baseline in hindsight. It is well-known that regret-minimizing algorithms converge to certain classes of equilibria in games; however, traditional forms of regret used in game theory predominantly consider baselines that permit deviations to deterministic actions or strategies. In this paper, we revisit our understanding of regret from the perspective of deviations over partitions of the full \emph{mixed} strategy space (i.e., probability distributions over pure strategies), under the lens of the previously-established $Φ$-regret framework, which provides a continuum of stronger regret measures. Importantly, $Φ$-regret enables learning agents to consider deviations from and to mixed strategies, generalizing several existing notions of regret such as external, internal, and swap regret, and thus broadening the insights gained from regret-based analysis of learning algorithms. We prove here that the well-studied evolutionary learning algorithm of replicator dynamics (RD) seamlessly minimizes the strongest possible form of $Φ$-regret in generic $2 \times 2$ games, without any modification of the underlying algorithm itself. We subsequently conduct experiments validating our theoretical results in a suite of 144 $2 \times 2$ games wherein RD exhibits a diverse set of behaviors. We conclude by providing empirical evidence of $Φ$-regret minimization by RD in some larger games, hinting at further opportunity for $Φ$-regret based study of such algorithms from both a theoretical and empirical perspective.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2021

Time-series Imputation of Temporally-occluded Multiagent Trajectories

In multiagent environments, several decision-making individuals interact while adhering to the dynamics constraints imposed by the environment. These interactions, combined with the potential stochasticity of the agents' decision-making processes, make such systems complex and interesting to study from a dynamical perspective. Significant research has been conducted on learning models for forward-direction estimation of agent behaviors, for example, pedestrian predictions used for collision-avoidance in self-driving cars. However, in many settings, only sporadic observations of agents may be available in a given trajectory sequence. For instance, in football, subsets of players may come in and out of view of broadcast video footage, while unobserved players continue to interact off-screen. In this paper, we study the problem of multiagent time-series imputation, where available past and future observations of subsets of agents are used to estimate missing observations for other agents. Our approach, called the Graph Imputer, uses forward- and backward-information in combination with graph networks and variational autoencoders to enable learning of a distribution of imputed trajectories. We evaluate our approach on a dataset of football matches, using a projective camera module to train and evaluate our model for the off-screen player state estimation setting. We illustrate that our method outperforms several state-of-the-art approaches, including those hand-crafted for football.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Scaling up Mean Field Games with Online Mirror Descent

We address scaling up equilibrium computation in Mean Field Games (MFGs) using Online Mirror Descent (OMD). We show that continuous-time OMD provably converges to a Nash equilibrium under a natural and well-motivated set of monotonicity assumptions. This theoretical result nicely extends to multi-population games and to settings involving common noise. A thorough experimental investigation on various single and multi-population MFGs shows that OMD outperforms traditional algorithms such as Fictitious Play (FP). We empirically show that OMD scales up and converges significantly faster than FP by solving, for the first time to our knowledge, examples of MFGs with hundreds of billions states. This study establishes the state-of-the-art for learning in large-scale multi-agent and multi-population games.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Game Plan: What AI can do for Football, and What Football can do for AI

The rapid progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning has opened unprecedented analytics possibilities in various team and individual sports, including baseball, basketball, and tennis. More recently, AI techniques have been applied to football, due to a huge increase in data collection by professional teams, increased computational power, and advances in machine learning, with the goal of better addressing new scientific challenges involved in the analysis of both individual players' and coordinated teams' behaviors. The research challenges associated with predictive and prescriptive football analytics require new developments and progress at the intersection of statistical learning, game theory, and computer vision. In this paper, we provide an overarching perspective highlighting how the combination of these fields, in particular, forms a unique microcosm for AI research, while offering mutual benefits for professional teams, spectators, and broadcasters in the years to come. We illustrate that this duality makes football analytics a game changer of tremendous value, in terms of not only changing the game of football itself, but also in terms of what this domain can mean for the field of AI. We review the state-of-the-art and exemplify the types of analysis enabled by combining the aforementioned fields, including illustrative examples of counterfactual analysis using predictive models, and the combination of game-theoretic analysis of penalty kicks with statistical learning of player attributes. We conclude by highlighting envisioned downstream impacts, including possibilities for extensions to other sports (real and virtual).

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Fictitious Play for Mean Field Games: Continuous Time Analysis and Applications

In this paper, we deepen the analysis of continuous time Fictitious Play learning algorithm to the consideration of various finite state Mean Field Game settings (finite horizon, $γ$-discounted), allowing in particular for the introduction of an additional common noise. We first present a theoretical convergence analysis of the continuous time Fictitious Play process and prove that the induced exploitability decreases at a rate $O(\frac{1}{t})$. Such analysis emphasizes the use of exploitability as a relevant metric for evaluating the convergence towards a Nash equilibrium in the context of Mean Field Games. These theoretical contributions are supported by numerical experiments provided in either model-based or model-free settings. We provide hereby for the first time converging learning dynamics for Mean Field Games in the presence of common noise.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability

We consider here an extended SIR model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected and recovered individuals can either be detected (+) or undetected (-) and we also integrate an intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of the optimal policy for the control of the epidemic dynamics using both lockdown and detection intervention levers. With parametric specification based on literature on COVID-19, we investigate the sensitivities of various quantities on the optimal strategies, taking into account the subtle trade-off between the sanitary and the socio-economic cost of the pandemic, together with the limited capacity level of ICU. We identify the optimal lockdown policy as an intervention structured in 4 successive phases: First a quick and strong lockdown intervention to stop the exponential growth of the contagion; second a short transition phase to reduce the prevalence of the virus; third a long period with full ICU capacity and stable virus prevalence; finally a return to normal social interactions with disappearance of the virus. The optimal scenario hereby avoids the second wave of infection, provided the lockdown is released sufficiently slowly. We also provide optimal intervention measures with increasing ICU capacity, as well as optimization over the effort on detection of infectious and immune individuals. Whenever massive resources are introduced to detect infected individuals, the pressure on social distancing can be released, whereas the impact of detection of immune individuals reveals to be more moderate.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

Contact rate epidemic control of COVID-19: an equilibrium view

We consider the control of the COVID-19 pandemic through a standard SIR compartmental model. This control is induced by the aggregation of individuals' decisions to limit their social interactions: when the epidemic is ongoing, an individual can diminish his/her contact rate in order to avoid getting infected, but this effort comes at a social cost. If each individual lowers his/her contact rate, the epidemic vanishes faster, but the effort cost may be high. A Mean Field Nash equilibrium at the population level is formed, resulting in a lower effective transmission rate of the virus. We prove theoretically that equilibrium exists and compute it numerically. However, this equilibrium selects a sub-optimal solution in comparison to the societal optimum (a centralized decision respected fully by all individuals), meaning that the cost of anarchy is strictly positive. We provide numerical examples and a sensitivity analysis, as well as an extension to a SEIR compartmental model to account for the relatively long latent phase of the COVID-19 disease. In all the scenarii considered, the divergence between the individual and societal strategies happens both before the peak of the epidemic, due to individuals' fears, and after, when a significant propagation is still underway.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Mean-field moral hazard for optimal energy demand response management

We study the problem of demand response contracts in electricity markets by quantifying the impact of considering a mean-field of consumers, whose consumption is impacted by a common noise. We formulate the problem as a Principal-Agent problem with moral hazard in which the Principal - she - is an electricity producer who observes continuously the consumption of a continuum of risk-averse consumers, and designs contracts in order to reduce her production costs. More precisely, the producer incentivises the consumers to reduce the average and the volatility of their consumption in different usages, without observing the efforts they make. We prove that the producer can benefit from considering the mean-field of consumers by indexing contracts on the consumption of one Agent and aggregate consumption statistics from the distribution of the entire population of consumers. In the case of linear energy valuation, we provide closed-form expression for this new type of optimal contracts that maximises the utility of the producer. In most cases, we show that this new type of contracts allows the Principal to choose the risks she wants to bear, and to reduce the problem at hand to an uncorrelated one.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Reinforcement Learning in Economics and Finance

Reinforcement learning algorithms describe how an agent can learn an optimal action policy in a sequential decision process, through repeated experience. In a given environment, the agent policy provides him some running and terminal rewards. As in online learning, the agent learns sequentially. As in multi-armed bandit problems, when an agent picks an action, he can not infer ex-post the rewards induced by other action choices. In reinforcement learning, his actions have consequences: they influence not only rewards, but also future states of the world. The goal of reinforcement learning is to find an optimal policy -- a mapping from the states of the world to the set of actions, in order to maximize cumulative reward, which is a long term strategy. Exploring might be sub-optimal on a short-term horizon but could lead to optimal long-term ones. Many problems of optimal control, popular in economics for more than forty years, can be expressed in the reinforcement learning framework, and recent advances in computational science, provided in particular by deep learning algorithms, can be used by economists in order to solve complex behavioral problems. In this article, we propose a state-of-the-art of reinforcement learning techniques, and present applications in economics, game theory, operation research and finance.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2020

On the Convergence of Model Free Learning in Mean Field Games

Learning by experience in Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) is a difficult and exciting task, due to the lack of stationarity of the environment, whose dynamics evolves as the population learns. In order to design scalable algorithms for systems with a large population of interacting agents (e.g. swarms), this paper focuses on Mean Field MAS, where the number of agents is asymptotically infinite. Recently, a very active burgeoning field studies the effects of diverse reinforcement learning algorithms for agents with no prior information on a stationary Mean Field Game (MFG) and learn their policy through repeated experience. We adopt a high perspective on this problem and analyze in full generality the convergence of a fictitious iterative scheme using any single agent learning algorithm at each step. We quantify the quality of the computed approximate Nash equilibrium, in terms of the accumulated errors arising at each learning iteration step. Notably, we show for the first time convergence of model free learning algorithms towards non-stationary MFG equilibria, relying only on classical assumptions on the MFG dynamics. We illustrate our theoretical results with a numerical experiment in a continuous action-space environment, where the approximate best response of the iterative fictitious play scheme is computed with a deep RL algorithm.

math.OC↗