arXiv subjects

Ron W Nielsen

Publications and source records attributed to Ron W Nielsen.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2015

The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth

Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between 1960 and 2014 was following a trajectory approaching asymptotically a constant value. The most likely prediction is that the world economic growth will continue to increase exponentially and that it will become unsustainable possibly even during the current century. A more optimistic but less realistic prediction is based on the assumption that the growth rate will start to decrease linearly. In this case, the world economic growth is predicted to reach a maximum, if the growth rate is going to decrease linearly with time, or to follow a logistic trajectory, if the growth rate is going to decrease linearly with the size of the world GDP.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2015

Mathematics of Predicting Growth

Mathematical methods of analysis of data and of predicting growth are discussed. The starting point is the analysis of the growth rates, which can be expressed as a function of time or as a function of the size of the growing entity. Application of these methods is illustrated using the world economic growth but they can be applied to any other type of growth.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2013

Unified Growth Theory: A puzzling collection of myths based on hyperbolic illusions

The Unified Growth Theory is a puzzling collection of myths based on illusions created by hyperbolic distributions. Some of these myths are discussed. The examination of data shows that the three stages of growth (Malthusian Regime, Post-Malthusian Regime and Modern Growth Regime) did not exist and that Industrial Revolution had no influence on the economic growth and on the growth of human population. All elaborate explanations revolving around phantom features created by hyperbolic illusions might be fascinating but they are scientifically unacceptable and, consequently, they do not explain the economic growth. The data clearly indicate that the economic growth was not as complicated as described by the Unified Growth Theory but elegantly simple.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2013

Scientifically unacceptable concept of the Epoch of Malthusian Stagnation

In order to control the growth of human population it is helpful to understand correctly the mechanism of growth, and the first essential step is to investigate current interpretations and reject any unscientific explanations. One of such popular but questionable interpretations is the concept of the Epoch of Malthusian Stagnation. We discuss its origin, narrative and claims. We explain why this concept is scientifically unacceptable. This investigation questions also the closely-related Demographic Transition Theory, whose essential component is the assumed mechanism of Malthusian stagnation for the first stage of growth.

q-bio.PE↗