arXiv subjects

Rong Pan

Publications and source records attributed to Rong Pan.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Human Digital Twin: Data, Models, Applications, and Challenges

Human digital twins (HDTs) are dynamic, data-driven virtual representations of individuals, continuously updated with multimodal data to simulate, monitor, and predict health trajectories. By integrating clinical, physiological, behavioral, and environmental inputs, HDTs enable personalized diagnostics, treatment planning, and anomaly detection. This paper reviews current approaches to HDT modeling, with a focus on statistical and machine learning techniques, including recent advances in anomaly detection and failure prediction. It also discusses data integration, computational methods, and ethical, technological, and regulatory challenges in deploying HDTs for precision healthcare.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Enhancing Transformer-Based Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting via Bagging, Boosting and Statistical Ensembles

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) such as Lag-Llama, TimeGPT, Chronos, MOMENT, UniTS, and TimesFM have shown strong generalization and zero-shot capabilities for time series forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, and imputation. Despite these advantages, their predictions still suffer from variance, domain-specific bias, and limited uncertainty quantification when deployed on real operational data. This paper investigates a suite of statistical and ensemble-based enhancement techniques, including bootstrap-based bagging, regression-based stacking, prediction interval construction, statistical residual modeling, and iterative error feedback, to improve robustness and accuracy. Using the Belgium Electricity Short-Term Load Forecasting dataset as a case study, we demonstrate that the proposed hybrids consistently outperform standalone foundation models across multiple horizons. Regression-based ensembles achieve the lowest mean squared error; bootstrap aggregation markedly reduces long-context errors; residual modeling corrects systematic bias; and the resulting prediction intervals achieve near nominal coverage with widths shrinking as context length increases. The results indicate that integrating statistical reasoning with modern foundation models yields measurable gains in accuracy, reliability, and interpretability for real-world time series applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Data Diversity as Implicit Regularization: How Does Diversity Shape the Weight Space of Deep Neural Networks?

Data augmentation that introduces diversity into the input data has long been used in training deep learning models. It has demonstrated benefits in improving robustness and generalization, practically aligning well with other regularization strategies such as dropout and weight decay. However, the underlying mechanism of how diverse training data contributes to model improvements remains unknown. In this paper, we investigate the impact of data diversity on the weight space of deep neural networks using Random Matrix Theory. Through spectral analysis and comparing models trained with data augmentation, dropout, and weight decay, we reveal that increasing data diversity alters the weight spectral distribution similarly to other regularization techniques, while displaying a pattern more closely aligned with dropout than with weight decay. Building on these insights, we propose a metric to explain and compare the benefits of diversity introduced by traditional data augmentations and those achieved through synthetic data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Ultra Ethernet's Design Principles and Architectural Innovations

The recently released Ultra Ethernet (UE) 1.0 specification defines a transformative High-Performance Ethernet standard for future Artificial Intelligence (AI) and High-Performance Computing (HPC) systems. This paper, written by the specification's authors, provides a high-level overview of UE's design, offering crucial motivations and scientific context to understand its innovations. While UE introduces advancements across the entire Ethernet stack, its standout contribution is the novel Ultra Ethernet Transport (UET), a potentially fully hardware-accelerated protocol engineered for reliable, fast, and efficient communication in extreme-scale systems. Unlike InfiniBand, the last major standardization effort in high-performance networking over two decades ago, UE leverages the expansive Ethernet ecosystem and the 1,000x gains in computational efficiency per moved bit to deliver a new era of high-performance networking.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2025

Data Quality in Crowdsourcing and Spamming Behavior Detection

As crowdsourcing emerges as an efficient and cost-effective method for obtaining labels for machine learning datasets, it is important to assess the quality of crowd-provided data, so as to improve analysis performance and reduce biases in subsequent machine learning tasks. Given the lack of ground truth in most cases of crowdsourcing, we refer to data quality as annotators' consistency and credibility. Unlike the simple scenarios where Kappa coefficient and intraclass correlation coefficient usually can apply, online crowdsourcing requires dealing with more complex situations. We introduce a systematic method for evaluating data quality and detecting spamming threats via variance decomposition, and we classify spammers into three categories based on their different behavioral patterns. A spammer index is proposed to assess entire data consistency, and two metrics are developed to measure crowd workers' credibility by utilizing the Markov chain and generalized random effects models. Furthermore, we showcase the practicality of our techniques and their advantages by applying them on a face verification task with both simulation and real-world data collected from two crowdsourcing platforms.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Active Learning for Multiple Change Point Detection in Non-stationary Time Series with Deep Gaussian Processes

Multiple change point (MCP) detection in non-stationary time series is challenging due to the variety of underlying patterns. To address these challenges, we propose a novel algorithm that integrates Active Learning (AL) with Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) for robust MCP detection. Our method leverages spectral analysis to identify potential changes and employs AL to strategically select new sampling points for improved efficiency. By incorporating the modeling flexibility of DGPs with the change-identification capabilities of spectral methods, our approach adapts to diverse spectral change behaviors and effectively localizes multiple change points. Experiments on both simulated and real-world data demonstrate that our method outperforms existing techniques in terms of detection accuracy and sampling efficiency for non-stationary time series.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

From Observation to Orientation: an Adaptive Integer Programming Approach to Intervention Design

Using both observational and experimental data, a causal discovery process can identify the causal relationships between variables. A unique adaptive intervention design paradigm is presented in this work, where causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are for effectively recovered with practical budgetary considerations. In order to choose treatments that optimize information gain under these considerations, an iterative integer programming (IP) approach is proposed, which drastically reduces the number of experiments required. Simulations over a broad range of graph sizes and edge densities are used to assess the effectiveness of the suggested approach. Results show that the proposed adaptive IP approach achieves full causal graph recovery with fewer intervention iterations and variable manipulations than random intervention baselines, and it is also flexible enough to accommodate a variety of practical constraints.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Leveraging LLM for Automated Ontology Extraction and Knowledge Graph Generation

Extracting relevant and structured knowledge from large, complex technical documents within the Reliability and Maintainability (RAM) domain is labor-intensive and prone to errors. Our work addresses this challenge by presenting OntoKGen, a genuine pipeline for ontology extraction and Knowledge Graph (KG) generation. OntoKGen leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) through an interactive user interface guided by our adaptive iterative Chain of Thought (CoT) algorithm to ensure that the ontology extraction process and, thus, KG generation align with user-specific requirements. Although KG generation follows a clear, structured path based on the confirmed ontology, there is no universally correct ontology as it is inherently based on the user's preferences. OntoKGen recommends an ontology grounded in best practices, minimizing user effort and providing valuable insights that may have been overlooked, all while giving the user complete control over the final ontology. Having generated the KG based on the confirmed ontology, OntoKGen enables seamless integration into schemeless, non-relational databases like Neo4j. This integration allows for flexible storage and retrieval of knowledge from diverse, unstructured sources, facilitating advanced querying, analysis, and decision-making. Moreover, the generated KG serves as a robust foundation for future integration into Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) systems, offering enhanced capabilities for developing domain-specific intelligent applications.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Causal Discovery by Interventions via Integer Programming

Causal discovery is essential across various scientific fields to uncover causal structures within data. Traditional methods relying on observational data have limitations due to confounding variables. This paper presents an optimization-based approach using integer programming (IP) to design minimal intervention sets that ensure causal structure identifiability. Our method provides exact and modular solutions that can be adjusted to different experimental settings and constraints. We demonstrate its effectiveness through comparative analysis across different settings, demonstrating its applicability and robustness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Gaussian Derivative Change-point Detection for Early Warnings of Industrial System Failures

An early warning of future system failure is essential for conducting predictive maintenance and enhancing system availability. This paper introduces a three-step framework for assessing system health to predict imminent system breakdowns. First, the Gaussian Derivative Change-Point Detection (GDCPD) algorithm is proposed for detecting changes in the high-dimensional feature space. GDCPD conducts a multivariate Change-Point Detection (CPD) by implementing Gaussian derivative processes for identifying change locations on critical system features, as these changes eventually will lead to system failure. To assess the significance of these changes, Weighted Mahalanobis Distance (WMD) is applied in both offline and online analyses. In the offline setting, WMD helps establish a threshold that determines significant system variations, while in the online setting, it facilitates real-time monitoring, issuing alarms for potential future system breakdowns. Utilizing the insights gained from the GDCPD and monitoring scheme, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network is then employed to estimate the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of the system. The experimental study of a real-world system demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in accurately forecasting system failures well before they occur. By integrating CPD with real-time monitoring and RUL prediction, this methodology significantly advances system health monitoring and early warning capabilities.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

MEC-IP: Efficient Discovery of Markov Equivalent Classes via Integer Programming

This paper presents a novel Integer Programming (IP) approach for discovering the Markov Equivalent Class (MEC) of Bayesian Networks (BNs) through observational data. The MEC-IP algorithm utilizes a unique clique-focusing strategy and Extended Maximal Spanning Graphs (EMSG) to streamline the search for MEC, thus overcoming the computational limitations inherent in other existing algorithms. Our numerical results show that not only a remarkable reduction in computational time is achieved by our algorithm but also an improvement in causal discovery accuracy is seen across diverse datasets. These findings underscore this new algorithm's potential as a powerful tool for researchers and practitioners in causal discovery and BNSL, offering a significant leap forward toward the efficient and accurate analysis of complex data structures.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Fill In The Gaps: Model Calibration and Generalization with Synthetic Data

As machine learning models continue to swiftly advance, calibrating their performance has become a major concern prior to practical and widespread implementation. Most existing calibration methods often negatively impact model accuracy due to the lack of diversity of validation data, resulting in reduced generalizability. To address this, we propose a calibration method that incorporates synthetic data without compromising accuracy. We derive the expected calibration error (ECE) bound using the Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning framework. Large language models (LLMs), known for their ability to mimic real data and generate text with mixed class labels, are utilized as a synthetic data generation strategy to lower the ECE bound and improve model accuracy on real test data. Additionally, we propose data generation mechanisms for efficient calibration. Testing our method on four different natural language processing tasks, we observed an average up to 34\% increase in accuracy and 33\% decrease in ECE.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

On the Roles of LLMs in Planning: Embedding LLMs into Planning Graphs

Plan synthesis aims to generate a course of actions or policies to transit given initial states to goal states, provided domain models that could be designed by experts or learnt from training data or interactions with the world. Intrigued by the claims of emergent planning capabilities in large language models (LLMs), works have been proposed to investigate the planning effectiveness of LLMs, without considering any utilization of off-the-shelf planning techniques in LLMs. In this paper, we aim to further study the insight of the planning capability of LLMs by investigating the roles of LLMs in off-the-shelf planning frameworks. To do this, we investigate the effectiveness of embedding LLMs into one of the well-known planning frameworks, graph-based planning, proposing a novel LLMs-based planning framework with LLMs embedded in two levels of planning graphs, i.e., mutual constraints generation level and constraints solving level. We empirically exhibit the effectiveness of our proposed framework in various planning domains.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

STrack: A Reliable Multipath Transport for AI/ML Clusters

Emerging artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) workloads present new challenges of managing the collective communication used in distributed training across hundreds or even thousands of GPUs. This paper presents STrack, a novel hardware-offloaded reliable transport protocol aimed at improving the performance of AI /ML workloads by rethinking key aspects of the transport layer. STrack optimizes congestion control and load balancing in tandem: it incorporates an adaptive load balancing algorithm leveraging ECN, while adopts RTT as multi-bit congestion indicators for precise congestion window adjustment. Additionally, STrack facilitates out-of-order delivery, selective retransmission, and swift loss recovery in hardware for multipath environment. The extensive simulation comparing STrack and RoCEv2 demonstrates that STrack outperforms RoCEv2 by up to 6X with synthetic workloads and by 27.4% with collective workloads, even with the optimized RoCEv2 system setup.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2023

Active Learning for Abrupt Shifts Change-point Detection via Derivative-Aware Gaussian Processes

Change-point detection (CPD) is crucial for identifying abrupt shifts in data, which influence decision-making and efficient resource allocation across various domains. To address the challenges posed by the costly and time-intensive data acquisition in CPD, we introduce the Derivative-Aware Change Detection (DACD) method. It leverages the derivative process of a Gaussian process (GP) for Active Learning (AL), aiming to pinpoint change-point locations effectively. DACD balances the exploitation and exploration of derivative processes through multiple data acquisition functions (AFs). By utilizing GP derivative mean and variance as criteria, DACD sequentially selects the next sampling data point, thus enhancing algorithmic efficiency and ensuring reliable and accurate results. We investigate the effectiveness of DACD method in diverse scenarios and show it outperforms other active learning change-point detection approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

SFC: Near-Source Congestion Signaling and Flow Control

State-of-the-art congestion control algorithms for data centers alone do not cope well with transient congestion and high traffic bursts. To help with these, we revisit the concept of direct \emph{backward} feedback from switches and propose Back-to-Sender (BTS) signaling to many concurrent incast senders. Combining it with our novel approach to in-network caching, we achieve near-source sub-RTT congestion signaling. Source Flow Control (SFC) combines these two simple signaling mechanisms to instantly pause traffic sources, hence avoiding the head-of-line blocking problem of conventional hop-by-hop flow control. Our prototype system and scale simulations demonstrate that near-source signaling can significantly reduce the message completion time of various workloads in the presence of incast, complementing existing congestion control algorithms. Our results show that SFC can reduce the $99^{th}$-percentile flow completion times by $1.2-6\times$ and the peak switch buffer usage by $2-3\times$ compared to the recent incast solutions.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2022

Online Auction-Based Incentive Mechanism Design for Horizontal Federated Learning with Budget Constraint

Federated learning makes it possible for all parties with data isolation to train the model collaboratively and efficiently while satisfying privacy protection. To obtain a high-quality model, an incentive mechanism is necessary to motivate more high-quality workers with data and computing power. The existing incentive mechanisms are applied in offline scenarios, where the task publisher collects all bids and selects workers before the task. However, it is practical that different workers arrive online in different orders before or during the task. Therefore, we propose a reverse auction-based online incentive mechanism for horizontal federated learning with budget constraint. Workers submit bids when they arrive online. The task publisher with a limited budget leverages the information of the arrived workers to decide on whether to select the new worker. Theoretical analysis proves that our mechanism satisfies budget feasibility, computational efficiency, individual rationality, consumer sovereignty, time truthfulness, and cost truthfulness with a sufficient budget. The experimental results show that our online mechanism is efficient and can obtain high-quality models.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2022

Auction-Based Ex-Post-Payment Incentive Mechanism Design for Horizontal Federated Learning with Reputation and Contribution Measurement

Federated learning trains models across devices with distributed data, while protecting the privacy and obtaining a model similar to that of centralized ML. A large number of workers with data and computing power are the foundation of federal learning. However, the inevitable costs prevent self-interested workers from serving for free. Moreover, due to data isolation, task publishers lack effective methods to select, evaluate and pay reliable workers with high-quality data. Therefore, we design an auction-based incentive mechanism for horizontal federated learning with reputation and contribution measurement. By designing a reasonable method of measuring contribution, we establish the reputation of workers, which is easy to decline and difficult to improve. Through reverse auctions, workers bid for tasks, and the task publisher selects workers combining reputation and bid price. With the budget constraint, winning workers are paid based on performance. We proved that our mechanism satisfies the individual rationality of the honest worker, budget feasibility, truthfulness, and computational efficiency.

cs.AI↗