arXiv subjects

Roselinde Kessels

Publications and source records attributed to Roselinde Kessels.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Simulated Annealing for Model-Robust Partial Profile Choice Designs in Healthcare Preference Studies

Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) investigate participants' preferences by observing their choice behavior in hypothetical scenarios and are widely used in the domain of healthcare. To reduce participants' cognitive burden, especially when dealing with a large number of attributes, researchers often employ partial profile designs. In these designs, certain attributes within each choice set are kept constant. Current literature on partial profile designs mainly focuses on main-effects models rather than interaction-effect models, with certain partial profile designs even incapable of estimating interaction effects. To address this issue, this paper introduces an Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm to construct partial profile designs based on an interaction-effects model. During the experimental design phase, the existence and magnitude of interaction effects are often unknown. Therefore, this paper proposes a model-robust experimental design strategy. Through extensive simulation experiments and a real-life case study, we demonstrate that our SA model-robust partial profile design performs relatively well regardless of the underlying model.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Constructing Bayesian Optimal Designs for Discrete Choice Experiments by Simulated Annealing

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) investigate the attributes that influence individuals' choices when selecting among various options. To enhance the quality of the estimated choice models, researchers opt for Bayesian optimal designs that utilize existing information about the attributes' preferences. Given the nonlinear nature of choice models, the construction of an appropriate design requires efficient algorithms. Among these, the coordinate-exchange (CE) algorithm is commonly employed for constructing designs based on the MNL model. However, as a hill-climbing method, the CE algorithm tends to quickly converge to local optima, potentially limiting the quality of the resulting designs. We propose the use of a simulated annealing (SA) algorithm to construct Bayesian optimal designs. This algorithm accepts both superior and inferior solutions, avoiding premature convergence and allowing a more thorough exploration of potential solutions. Consequently, it ultimately obtains higher-quality choice designs compared to the CE algorithm. Our work represents the first application of an SA algorithm in constructing Bayesian optimal designs for DCEs. Through extensive computational experiments, we demonstrate that the SA designs generally outperform the CE designs in terms of statistical efficiency, especially when the prior preference information is highly uncertain.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Face masks, vaccination rates and low crowding drive the demand for the London Underground during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically impacted people's travel behaviour and out-of-home activity participation. While countermeasures are being eased with increasing vaccination rates, the demand for public transport remains uncertain. To investigate user preferences to travel by London Underground during the pandemic, we conducted a stated choice experiment among its pre-pandemic users (N=961). We analysed the collected data using multinomial and mixed logit models. Our analysis provides insights into the sensitivity of the demand for the London Underground with respect to travel attributes (crowding density and travel time), the epidemic situation (confirmed new COVID-19 cases), and interventions (vaccination rates and mandatory face masks). Mandatory face masks and higher vaccination rates are the top two drivers of travel demand for the London Underground during COVID-19. The positive impact of vaccination rates on the Underground demand increases with crowding density, and the positive effect of mandatory face masks decreases with travel time. Mixed logit reveals substantial preference heterogeneity. For instance, while the average effect of mandatory face masks is positive, preferences of around 20% of the pre-pandemic users to travel by the Underground are negatively affected. The estimated demand sensitivities are relevant for supply-demand management in transit systems and the calibration of advanced epidemiological models.

stat.AP↗