arXiv subjects

Roshni Sahoo

Publications and source records attributed to Roshni Sahoo.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

What Would it Cost to End Extreme Poverty?

We study poverty minimization via direct transfers, framing this as a statistical learning problem while retaining the information constraints faced by real-world programs. Using nationally representative household consumption surveys from 34 countries that together account for 76% of the world's poor, we estimate that reducing the poverty rate to 1% (from a baseline of 13%) would cost $211 B nominal per year. This is 4.0 times the corresponding reduction in the aggregate poverty gap, but only 19% of the cost of universal basic income. Extrapolated globally, the results imply a cost of 0.28% of global GDP to (approximately) end extreme poverty.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Ward identity preserving local ultraviolet counterterms for photoproduction at two loops in QCD

We review the construction of locally finite two-loop amplitude integrands for photoproduction via quark annihilation, presented in arXiv:2509.07805. Building on established techniques for off-shell colorless production, we extend this local subtraction framework to handle transient singularities arising from real outgoing photons. These singularities manifest only at the integrand level, yielding finite contributions upon integration. In these proceedings, we provide the explicit construction of ultraviolet counterterms that satisfy necessary Ward identity cancellations, ensuring that the integrand is rendered integrable. This work provides a locally finite amplitude integrand that is ready for numerical integration in momentum space. Furthermore, it establishes the foundation for extending local subtraction frameworks to processes involving final-state jets.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2025

General finite two-loop amplitude integrand for photoproduction in quark annihilation

The construction of integrands free of infrared and ultraviolet singularities may enable the application of numerical methods to evaluate loop amplitudes that are inaccessible with analytic techniques. At two loops, finite amplitude integrands have been constructed for the production of off-shell or massive colorless particles via quark annihilation. In this article, we extend this class of processes to include real photons in the final state. To achieve this, we introduce appropriate momentum flows and counterterms to eliminate singularities that occur because the photons are massless. These singularities arise only locally at the integrand level and do not lead to divergences upon integration. Our treatment also eliminates all power singularities arising from self-energy corrections in the integrand. We extend the analysis to gluon emission from virtual quarks. We believe these new insights will be useful for future extensions of infrared subtraction methods to processes with final-state jets.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2025

Data Fusion for High-Resolution Estimation

High-resolution estimates of population health indicators are critical for precision public health. We propose a method for high-resolution estimation that fuses distinct data sources: an unbiased, low-resolution data source (e.g. aggregated administrative data) and a potentially biased, high-resolution data source (e.g. individual-level online survey responses). We assume that the potentially biased, high-resolution data source is generated from the population under a model of sampling bias where observables can have arbitrary impact on the probability of response but the difference in the log probabilities of response between units with the same observables is linear in the difference between sufficient statistics of their observables and outcomes. Our data fusion method learns a distribution that is closest (in the sense of KL divergence) to the online survey distribution and consistent with the aggregated administrative data and our model of sampling bias. This approach significantly reduces bias in high-resolution estimates compared to baselines that rely on a single data source alone on a testbed that includes repeated measurements of three indicators measured by both the (online) Household Pulse Survey and ground-truth data sources at two geographic resolutions over the same time period.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Policy Learning with Competing Agents

Decision makers often aim to learn a treatment assignment policy under a capacity constraint on the number of agents that they can treat. When agents can respond strategically to such policies, competition arises, complicating estimation of the optimal policy. In this paper, we study capacity-constrained treatment assignment in the presence of such interference. We consider a dynamic model where the decision maker allocates treatments at each time step and heterogeneous agents myopically best respond to the previous treatment assignment policy. When the number of agents is large but finite, we show that the threshold for receiving treatment under a given policy converges to the policy's mean-field equilibrium threshold. Based on this result, we develop a consistent estimator for the policy gradient. In a semi-synthetic experiment with data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, we demonstrate that this estimator can be used for learning capacity-constrained policies in the presence of strategic behavior.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Policy Learning under Biased Sample Selection

Practitioners often use data from a randomized controlled trial to learn a treatment assignment policy that can be deployed on a target population. A recurring concern in doing so is that, even if the randomized trial was well-executed (i.e., internal validity holds), the study participants may not represent a random sample of the target population (i.e., external validity fails)--and this may lead to policies that perform suboptimally on the target population. We consider a model where observable attributes can impact sample selection probabilities arbitrarily but the effect of unobservable attributes is bounded by a constant, and we aim to learn policies with the best possible performance guarantees that hold under any sampling bias of this type. In particular, we derive the partial identification result for the worst-case welfare in the presence of sampling bias and show that the optimal max-min, max-min gain, and minimax regret policies depend on both the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) and the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of potential outcomes given covariates. To avoid finite-sample inefficiencies of plug-in estimates, we further provide an end-to-end procedure for learning the optimal max-min and max-min gain policies that does not require the separate estimation of nuisance parameters.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2022

Learning from a Biased Sample

The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed. However, in a number of settings, we may be concerned that our training sample is biased in the sense that some groups (characterized by either observable or unobservable attributes) may be under- or over-represented relative to the general population; and in this setting empirical risk minimization over the training set may fail to yield rules that perform well at deployment. We propose a model of sampling bias called conditional $\Gamma$-biased sampling, where observed covariates can affect the probability of sample selection arbitrarily much but the amount of unexplained variation in the probability of sample selection is bounded by a constant factor. Applying the distributionally robust optimization framework, we propose a method for learning a decision rule that minimizes the worst-case risk incurred under a family of test distributions that can generate the training distribution under $\Gamma$-biased sampling. We apply a result of Rockafellar and Uryasev to show that this problem is equivalent to an augmented convex risk minimization problem. We give statistical guarantees for learning a model that is robust to sampling bias via the method of sieves, and propose a deep learning algorithm whose loss function captures our robust learning target. We empirically validate our proposed method in a case study on prediction of mental health scores from health survey data and a case study on ICU length of stay prediction.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Calibrating Predictions to Decisions: A Novel Approach to Multi-Class Calibration

When facing uncertainty, decision-makers want predictions they can trust. A machine learning provider can convey confidence to decision-makers by guaranteeing their predictions are distribution calibrated -- amongst the inputs that receive a predicted class probabilities vector $q$, the actual distribution over classes is $q$. For multi-class prediction problems, however, achieving distribution calibration tends to be infeasible, requiring sample complexity exponential in the number of classes $C$. In this work, we introduce a new notion -- \emph{decision calibration} -- that requires the predicted distribution and true distribution to be ``indistinguishable'' to a set of downstream decision-makers. When all possible decision makers are under consideration, decision calibration is the same as distribution calibration. However, when we only consider decision makers choosing between a bounded number of actions (e.g. polynomial in $C$), our main result shows that decisions calibration becomes feasible -- we design a recalibration algorithm that requires sample complexity polynomial in the number of actions and the number of classes. We validate our recalibration algorithm empirically: compared to existing methods, decision calibration improves decision-making on skin lesion and ImageNet classification with modern neural network predictors.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Unsupervised Domain Adaptation in the Absence of Source Data

Current unsupervised domain adaptation methods can address many types of distribution shift, but they assume data from the source domain is freely available. As the use of pre-trained models becomes more prevalent, it is reasonable to assume that source data is unavailable. We propose an unsupervised method for adapting a source classifier to a target domain that varies from the source domain along natural axes, such as brightness and contrast. Our method only requires access to unlabeled target instances and the source classifier. We validate our method in scenarios where the distribution shift involves brightness, contrast, and rotation and show that it outperforms fine-tuning baselines in scenarios with limited labeled data.

cs.CV↗