arXiv subjects

Roxana Gutiérrez-Romero

Publications and source records attributed to Roxana Gutiérrez-Romero.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Displacement and disconnection: the impact of violence on migration networks and highway traffic in Mexico

We examine how violence affects migration flows and, crucially, how it reshapes the strength of migration networks -- measured by the intensity of migration between areas, accounting for the fact that some routes become more prominent or fade over time -- an aspect traditional studies overlook. Using a novel network algorithm and Mexican census data from 2005 to 2020, we first quantify changes in the strength of domestic and international migration networks across all Mexican municipalities. We exploit variation in local homicide rates, using exogenous fuel price increases and municipalities' proximity to oil pipelines as instruments, to estimate the causal impact of violence on migration. During our study period, following intensified government crackdowns on drug trafficking organizations, many criminal groups fragmented and turned toward large-scale oil theft, driving sharp increases in violence in areas with oil pipelines, particularly when fuel prices rose. The findings show that rising violence increased emigration flows, predominantly within Mexico, and strengthened the intensity of emigration networks both domestically and toward the United States. Although violent municipalities continued to receive new residents, the rise in emigration was larger. Increasing homicide rates led to at least an additional 1.12 million people emigrating domestically and 50,200 fewer Mexicans returning from the United States. Violence also eroded regional connectivity, causing a long-term decline in daily vehicle traffic on highways linking violent areas to the rest of the country.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Femicide Laws, Unilateral Divorce, and Abortion Decriminalization Fail to Stop Women from Being Killed in Mexico

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of femicide laws in combating gender-based killings of women, a major cause of premature female mortality. Focusing on Mexico, a pioneer in adopting such legislation, the paper exploits variations in the enactment of femicide laws and prison sentences across states. Using the difference-in-differences estimator, the analysis reveals femicide laws have not impacted femicides, homicides, disappearances, or suicides of women. Results remain robust when considering differences in prison sentencing, states introducing unilateral divorce, equitable divorce asset compensation, or decriminalizing abortion. Findings also hold with synthetic matching, suggesting laws are insufficient to combat gender-based violence in contexts of impunity.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Causes and Electoral Consequences of Political Assassinations: The Role of Organized Crime in Mexico

Mexico has experienced a notable surge in assassinations of political candidates and mayors. This article argues that these killings are largely driven by organized crime, aiming to influence candidate selection, control local governments for rent-seeking, and retaliate against government crackdowns. Using a new dataset of political assassinations in Mexico from 2000 to 2021 and instrumental variables, we address endogeneity concerns in the location and timing of government crackdowns. Our instruments include historical Chinese immigration patterns linked to opium cultivation in Mexico, local corn prices, and U.S. illicit drug prices. The findings reveal that candidates in municipalities near oil pipelines face an increased risk of assassination due to drug trafficking organizations expanding into oil theft, particularly during elections and fuel price hikes. Government arrests or killings of organized crime members trigger retaliatory violence, further endangering incumbent mayors. This political violence has a negligible impact on voter turnout, as it targets politicians rather than voters. However, voter turnout increases in areas where authorities disrupt drug smuggling, raising the chances of the local party being re-elected. These results offer new insights into how criminal groups attempt to capture local governments and the implications for democracy under criminal governance.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

The Long-Run Impact of Electoral Violence on Health and Human Capital in Kenya

This paper examines the long-term effects of prenatal, childhood, and teen exposure to electoral violence on health and human capital. Furthermore, it investigates whether these effects are passed down to future generations. We exploit the temporal and spatial variation of electoral violence in Kenya between 1992 and 2013 in conjunction with a nationally representative survey to identify people exposed to such violence. Using coarsened matching, we find that exposure to electoral violence between prenatal and the age of sixteen reduces adult height. Previous research has demonstrated that protracted, large-scale armed conflicts can pass down stunting effects to descendants. In line with these studies, we find that the low-scale but recurrent electoral violence in Kenya has affected the height-for-age of children whose parents were exposed to such violence during their growing years. Only boys exhibit this intergenerational effect, possibly due to their increased susceptibility to malnutrition and stunting in Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast to previous research on large-scale conflicts, childhood exposure to electoral violence has no long-term effect on educational attainment or household consumption per capita. Most electoral violence in Kenya has occurred during school breaks, which may have mitigated its long-term effects on human capital and earning capacity.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Violence in Guatemala pushes adults and children to seek work in Mexico

This article estimates the impact of violence on emigration crossings from Guatemala to Mexico as final destination during 2009-2017. To identify causal effects, we use as instruments the variation in deforestation in Guatemala, and the seizing of cocaine in Colombia. We argue that criminal organizations deforest land in Guatemala, fueling violence and leading to emigration, particularly during exogenous supply shocks to cocaine. A one-point increase in the homicide rate differential between Guatemalan municipalities and Mexico, leads to 211 additional emigration crossings made by male adults. This rise in violence, also leads to 20 extra emigration crossings made by children.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

New trends in South-South migration: The economic impact of COVID-19 and immigration enforcement

This paper evaluates the impact of the pandemic and enforcement at the US and Mexican borders on the emigration of Guatemalans during 2017-2020. During this period, the number of crossings from Guatemala fell by 10%, according to the Survey of Migration to the Southern Border of Mexico. Yet, there was a rise of nearly 30% in the number of emigration crossings of male adults travelling with their children. This new trend was partly driven by the recent reduction in the number of children deported from the US. For a one-point reduction in the number of children deported from the US to Guatemalan municipalities, there was an increase of nearly 14 in the number of crossings made by adult males leaving from Guatemala for Mexico; and nearly 0.5 additional crossings made by male adults travelling with their children. However, the surge of emigrants travelling with their children was also driven by the acute economic shock that Guatemala experienced during the pandemic. During this period, air pollution in the analysed Guatemalan municipalities fell by 4%, night light per capita fell by 15%, and homicide rates fell by 40%. Unlike in previous years, emigrants are fleeing poverty rather than violence. Our findings suggest that a reduction in violence alone will not be sufficient to reduce emigration flows from Central America, but that economic recovery is needed.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Conflict in Africa during COVID-19: social distancing, food vulnerability and welfare response

We study the effect of social distancing, food vulnerability, welfare and labour COVID-19 policy responses on riots, violence against civilians and food-related conflicts. Our analysis uses georeferenced data for 24 African countries with monthly local prices and real-time conflict data reported in the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) from January 2015 until early May 2020. Lockdowns and recent welfare policies have been implemented in light of COVID-19, but in some contexts also likely in response to ongoing conflicts. To mitigate the potential risk of endogeneity, we use instrumental variables. We exploit the exogeneity of global commodity prices, and three variables that increase the risk of COVID-19 and efficiency in response such as countries colonial heritage, male mortality rate attributed to air pollution and prevalence of diabetes in adults. We find that the probability of experiencing riots, violence against civilians, food-related conflicts and food looting has increased since lockdowns. Food vulnerability has been a contributing factor. A 10% increase in the local price index is associated with an increase of 0.7 percentage points in violence against civilians. Nonetheless, for every additional anti-poverty measure implemented in response to COVID-19 the probability of experiencing violence against civilians, riots and food-related conflicts declines by approximately 0.2 percentage points. These anti-poverty measures also reduce the number of fatalities associated with these conflicts. Overall, our findings reveal that food vulnerability has increased conflict risks, but also offer an optimistic view of the importance of the state in providing an extensive welfare safety net.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2020

COVID-19 response needs to broaden financial inclusion to curb the rise in poverty

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic risks wiping out years of progress made in reducing global poverty. In this paper, we explore to what extent financial inclusion could help mitigate the increase in poverty using cross-country data across 78 low- and lower-middle-income countries. Unlike other recent cross-country studies, we show that financial inclusion is a key driver of poverty reduction in these countries. This effect is not direct, but indirect, by mitigating the detrimental effect that inequality has on poverty. Our findings are consistent across all the different measures of poverty used. Our forecasts suggest that the world's population living on less than $1.90 per day could increase from 8% to 14% by 2021, pushing nearly 400 million people into poverty. However, urgent improvements in financial inclusion could substantially reduce the impact on poverty.

econ.EM↗