arXiv subjects

Ruey S. Tsay

Publications and source records attributed to Ruey S. Tsay.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Model Selection for Unit-root Time Series with Many Predictors

This paper studies model selection for general unit-root time series, including the case with many exogenous predictors. We propose a new model selection algorithm, FHTD, that leverages forward stepwise regression (FSR), a high-dimensional information criterion (HDIC), a backward elimination method based on HDIC, and a data-driven thresholding (DDT) approach. Under some mild assumptions that allow for unknown locations and multiplicities of the characteristic roots on the unit circle of the time series and conditional heteroscedasticity in the predictors and errors, we establish the sure screening property of FSR and the selection consistency of FHTD. Our theoretical analysis relies on two novel technical contributions, namely a functional central limit theorem for multivariate linear processes and a uniform lower bound for the minimum eigenvalue of the sample covariance matrices, both of which are of independent interest. Simulation results corroborate the theoretical properties and show the superior performance of FHTD in model selection. We apply the proposed FHTD to model U.S. monthly housing starts and unemployment data, showcasing its practical utility.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Blurring Mean Shift for Clustering Functional Data: A Scalable Algorithm and Convergence Analysis

This paper extends the blurring mean shift algorithm from vector-valued data to functional data, enabling effective clustering in infinite-dimensional settings without requiring specification of the number of clusters. To address the computational challenges posed by large-scale datasets, we introduce a fast stochastic variant that significantly reduces computational complexity. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis for the full blurring functional mean shift procedure, establishing theoretical guarantees for its iterative behavior. For the stochastic variant, we provide partial theoretical justification by showing that, when the subset size is sufficiently large, its one-step update is well approximated by the corresponding update of the full algorithm. The proposed method is demonstrated through real-data applications, including hourly Taiwan PM$_{2.5}$ measurements and Argo oceanographic profiles. Our key contributions include: (1) extending the blurring mean shift algorithm to functional data in a Hilbert-space setting; (2) developing a scalable stochastic variant based on random partitioning for large-scale data; (3) establishing convergence results for the full blurring functional mean shift algorithm; and (4) demonstrating the scalability and practical usefulness of the proposed method through simulation and real-data applications.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Forward Regression via Gram-Schmidt Orthogonalization for Ultra-High Dimensional Linear Models

Forward regression is a classical and effective tool for variable screening in ultra-high dimensional linear models, but its standard projection-based implementation can be computationally costly and numerically unstable when predictors are strongly collinear. Motivated by this limitation, we propose an orthogonalized forward regression procedure, implemented recursively through Gram-Schmidt updates, that ranks predictors according to their unique contributions after removing the effects of variables already selected. This approach preserves the interpretability of forward regression while substantially reducing the cost of repeated projections. We further develop a path-based model size selection rule using statistics computed directly from the forward sequence, thereby avoiding cross-validation and extensive tuning. The resulting method is particularly well suited to settings in which the number of predictors far exceeds the sample size and strong collinearity renders the conventional forward fitting ineffective. Theoretically, we derive the optimal convergence rate for the proposed Gram-Schmidt forward regression, thereby extending existing results for projection-based forward regression, and further show that it enjoys sure screening property and variable selection consistency under suitable conditions. Simulation studies and empirical examples demonstrate that it provides a favorable balance among computational efficiency, numerical stability, screening accuracy, and predictive performance, especially in highly correlated ultra-high dimensional settings.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

High-Dimensional Spatial Arbitrage Pricing Theory with Heterogeneous Interactions

This paper investigates estimation and inference of a Spatial Arbitrage Pricing Theory (SAPT) model that integrates spatial interactions with multi-factor analysis, accommodating both observable and latent factors. Building on the classical mean-variance analysis, we introduce a class of Spatial Capital Asset Pricing Models (SCAPM) that account for spatial effects in high-dimensional assets, where we define {\it spatial rho} as a counterpart to market beta in CAPM. We then extend SCAPM to a general SAPT framework under a {\it complete} market setting by incorporating multiple factors. For SAPT with observable factors, we propose a generalized shrinkage Yule-Walker (SYW) estimation method that integrates ridge regression to estimate spatial and factor coefficients. When factors are latent, we first apply an autocovariance-based eigenanalysis to extract factors, then employ the SYW method using the estimated factors. We establish asymptotic properties for these estimators under high-dimensional settings where both the dimension and sample size diverge. Finally, we use simulated and real data examples to demonstrate the efficacy and usefulness of the proposed model and method.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Temporal Wasserstein Imputation: A Versatile Method for Time Series Imputation

Missing data can significantly hamper standard time series analysis, yet they occur frequently in applications. In this paper, we introduce temporal Wasserstein imputation, a novel method for imputing missing data in time series. Unlike most existing techniques, our approach is fully nonparametric, circumventing the need for model specification prior to imputation, making it suitable for empirical applications even with nonlinear dynamics. Its principled algorithmic implementation can seamlessly handle univariate or multivariate time series with any non-systematic missing pattern. In addition, the plausible range and side information of the missing entries (such as box constraints) can easily be incorporated. Furthermore, our method mitigates the distributional bias common among many existing approaches, ensuring more reliable downstream statistical analysis using the imputed series. We establish the convergence of an alternating minimization algorithm to critical points. We also provide conditions under which the marginal distributions of the underlying time series can be identified. Numerical experiments, including extensive simulations covering both linear and nonlinear time series and an analysis on a real-world groundwater dataset, corroborate the practical usefulness of the proposed method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

VUS: Effective and Efficient Accuracy Measures for Time-Series Anomaly Detection

Anomaly detection (AD) is a fundamental task for time-series analytics with important implications for the downstream performance of many applications. In contrast to other domains where AD mainly focuses on point-based anomalies (i.e., outliers in standalone observations), AD for time series is also concerned with range-based anomalies (i.e., outliers spanning multiple observations). Nevertheless, it is common to use traditional point-based information retrieval measures, such as Precision, Recall, and F-score, to assess the quality of methods by thresholding the anomaly score to mark each point as an anomaly or not. However, mapping discrete labels into continuous data introduces unavoidable shortcomings, complicating the evaluation of range-based anomalies. Notably, the choice of evaluation measure may significantly bias the experimental outcome. Despite over six decades of attention, there has never been a large-scale systematic quantitative and qualitative analysis of time-series AD evaluation measures. This paper extensively evaluates quality measures for time-series AD to assess their robustness under noise, misalignments, and different anomaly cardinality ratios. Our results indicate that measures producing quality values independently of a threshold (i.e., AUC-ROC and AUC-PR) are more suitable for time-series AD. Motivated by this observation, we first extend the AUC-based measures to account for range-based anomalies. Then, we introduce a new family of parameter-free and threshold-independent measures, Volume Under the Surface (VUS), to evaluate methods while varying parameters. We also introduce two optimized implementations for VUS that reduce significantly the execution time of the initial implementation. Our findings demonstrate that our four measures are significantly more robust in assessing the quality of time-series AD methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Modeling High-Dimensional Dependent Data in the Presence of Many Explanatory Variables and Weak Signals

This article considers a novel and widely applicable approach to modeling high-dimensional dependent data when a large number of explanatory variables are available and the signal-to-noise ratio is low. We postulate that a $p$-dimensional response series is the sum of a linear regression with many observable explanatory variables and an error term driven by some latent common factors and an idiosyncratic noise. The common factors have dynamic dependence whereas the covariance matrix of the idiosyncratic noise can have diverging eigenvalues to handle the situation of low signal-to-noise ratio commonly encountered in applications. The regression coefficient matrix is estimated using penalized methods when the dimensions involved are high. We apply factor modeling to the regression residuals, employ a high-dimensional white noise testing procedure to determine the number of common factors, and adopt a projected Principal Component Analysis when the signal-to-noise ratio is low. We establish asymptotic properties of the proposed method, both for fixed and diverging numbers of regressors, as $p$ and the sample size $T$ approach infinity. Finally, we use simulations and empirical applications to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach in finite samples.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Denoising and Multilinear Projected-Estimation of High-Dimensional Matrix-Variate Factor Time Series

This paper proposes a new multi-linear projection method for denoising and estimation of high-dimensional matrix-variate factor time series. It assumes that a $p_1\times p_2$ matrix-variate time series consists of a dynamically dependent, lower-dimensional matrix-variate factor process and a $p_1\times p_2$ matrix idiosyncratic series. In addition, the latter series assumes a matrix-variate factor structure such that its row and column covariances may have diverging/spiked eigenvalues to accommodate the case of low signal-to-noise ratio often encountered in applications. We use an iterative projection procedure to reduce the dimensions and noise effects in estimating front and back loading matrices and to obtain faster convergence rates than those of the traditional methods available in the literature. We further introduce a two-way projected Principal Component Analysis to mitigate the diverging noise effects, and implement a high-dimensional white-noise testing procedure to estimate the dimension of the matrix factor process. Asymptotic properties of the proposed method are established if the dimensions and sample size go to infinity. We also use simulations and real examples to assess the performance of the proposed method in finite samples and to compare its forecasting ability with some existing ones in the literature. The proposed method fares well in out-of-sample forecasting. In a supplement, we demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach even when the idiosyncratic terms exhibit serial correlations with or without a diverging white noise effect.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Optimal Bias-Correction and Valid Inference in High-Dimensional Ridge Regression: A Closed-Form Solution

Ridge regression is an indispensable tool in big data analysis. Yet its inherent bias poses a significant and longstanding challenge, compromising both statistical efficiency and scalability across various applications. To tackle this critical issue, we introduce an iterative strategy to correct bias effectively when the dimension $p$ is less than the sample size $n$. For $p>n$, our method optimally mitigates the bias such that any remaining bias in the proposed de-biased estimator is unattainable through linear transformations of the response data. To address the remaining bias when $p>n$, we employ a Ridge-Screening (RS) method, producing a reduced model suitable for bias correction. Crucially, under certain conditions, the true model is nested within our selected one, highlighting RS as a novel variable selection approach. Through rigorous analysis, we establish the asymptotic properties and valid inferences of our de-biased ridge estimators for both $p n$, where, both $p$ and $n$ may increase towards infinity, along with the number of iterations. We further validate these results using simulated and real-world data examples. Our method offers a transformative solution to the bias challenge in ridge regression inferences across various disciplines.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average Models: A Review

Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) models form a powerful and general model class for analyzing dynamics among multiple time series. While VARMA models encompass the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models, their popularity in empirical applications is dominated by the latter. Can this phenomenon be explained fully by the simplicity of VAR models? Perhaps many users of VAR models have not fully appreciated what VARMA models can provide. The goal of this review is to provide a comprehensive resource for researchers and practitioners seeking insights into the advantages and capabilities of VARMA models. We start by reviewing the identification challenges inherent to VARMA models thereby encompassing classical and modern identification schemes and we continue along the same lines regarding estimation, specification and diagnosis of VARMA models. We then highlight the practical utility of VARMA models in terms of Granger Causality analysis, forecasting and structural analysis as well as recent advances and extensions of VARMA models to further facilitate their adoption in practice. Finally, we discuss some interesting future research directions where VARMA models can fulfill their potentials in applications as compared to their subclass of VAR models.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Time Series Forecasting with Many Predictors

We propose a novel approach for time series forecasting with many predictors, referred to as the GO-sdPCA, in this paper. The approach employs a variable selection method known as the group orthogonal greedy algorithm and the high-dimensional Akaike information criterion to mitigate the impact of irrelevant predictors. Moreover, a novel technique, called peeling, is used to boost the variable selection procedure so that many factor-relevant predictors can be included in prediction. Finally, the supervised dynamic principal component analysis (sdPCA) method is adopted to account for the dynamic information in factor recovery. In simulation studies, we found that the proposed method adapts well to unknown degrees of sparsity and factor strength, which results in good performance even when the number of relevant predictors is large compared to the sample size. Applying to economic and environmental studies, the proposed method consistently performs well compared to some commonly used benchmarks in one-step-ahead out-sample forecasts.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Scalable High-Dimensional Multivariate Linear Regression for Feature-Distributed Data

Feature-distributed data, referred to data partitioned by features and stored across multiple computing nodes, are increasingly common in applications with a large number of features. This paper proposes a two-stage relaxed greedy algorithm (TSRGA) for applying multivariate linear regression to such data. The main advantage of TSRGA is that its communication complexity does not depend on the feature dimension, making it highly scalable to very large data sets. In addition, for multivariate response variables, TSRGA can be used to yield low-rank coefficient estimates. The fast convergence of TSRGA is validated by simulation experiments. Finally, we apply the proposed TSRGA in a financial application that leverages unstructured data from the 10-K reports, demonstrating its usefulness in applications with many dense large-dimensional matrices.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Supervised Dynamic PCA: Linear Dynamic Forecasting with Many Predictors

This paper proposes a novel dynamic forecasting method using a new supervised Principal Component Analysis (PCA) when a large number of predictors are available. The new supervised PCA provides an effective way to bridge the gap between predictors and the target variable of interest by scaling and combining the predictors and their lagged values, resulting in an effective dynamic forecasting. Unlike the traditional diffusion-index approach, which does not learn the relationships between the predictors and the target variable before conducting PCA, we first re-scale each predictor according to their significance in forecasting the targeted variable in a dynamic fashion, and a PCA is then applied to a re-scaled and additive panel, which establishes a connection between the predictability of the PCA factors and the target variable. Furthermore, we also propose to use penalized methods such as the LASSO approach to select the significant factors that have superior predictive power over the others. Theoretically, we show that our estimators are consistent and outperform the traditional methods in prediction under some mild conditions. We conduct extensive simulations to verify that the proposed method produces satisfactory forecasting results and outperforms most of the existing methods using the traditional PCA. A real example of predicting U.S. macroeconomic variables using a large number of predictors showcases that our method fares better than most of the existing ones in applications. The proposed method thus provides a comprehensive and effective approach for dynamic forecasting in high-dimensional data analysis.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Determination of the effective cointegration rank in high-dimensional time-series predictive regressions

This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effective cointegration rank in high-dimensional unit-root (HDUR) time series from a prediction perspective using reduced-rank regression. For a HDUR process $\mathbf{x}_t\in \mathbb{R}^N$ and a stationary series $\mathbf{y}_t\in \mathbb{R}^p$ of interest, our goal is to predict future values of $\mathbf{y}_t$ using $\mathbf{x}_t$ and lagged values of $\mathbf{y}_t$. The proposed framework consists of a two-step estimation procedure. First, the Principal Component Analysis is used to identify all cointegrating vectors of $\mathbf{x}_t$. Second, the co-integrated stationary series are used as regressors, together with some lagged variables of $\mathbf{y}_t$, to predict $\mathbf{y}_t$. The estimated reduced rank is then defined as the effective cointegration rank of $\mathbf{x}_t$. Under the scenario that the autoregressive coefficient matrices are sparse (or of low-rank), we apply the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (or the reduced-rank techniques) to estimate the autoregressive coefficients when the dimension involved is high. Theoretical properties of the estimators are established under the assumptions that the dimensions $p$ and $N$ and the sample size $T \to \infty$. Both simulated and real examples are used to illustrate the proposed framework, and the empirical application suggests that the proposed procedure fares well in predicting stock returns.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2022

Constrained Factor Models for High-Dimensional Matrix-Variate Time Series

High-dimensional matrix-variate time series data are becoming widely available in many scientific fields, such as economics, biology, and meteorology. To achieve significant dimension reduction while preserving the intrinsic matrix structure and temporal dynamics in such data, Wang et al. (2017) proposed a matrix factor model that is shown to provide effective analysis. In this paper, we establish a general framework for incorporating domain or prior knowledge in the matrix factor model through linear constraints. The proposed framework is shown to be useful in achieving parsimonious parameterization, facilitating interpretation of the latent matrix factor, and identifying specific factors of interest. Fully utilizing the prior-knowledge-induced constraints results in more efficient and accurate modeling, inference, dimension reduction as well as a clear and better interpretation of the results. In this paper, constrained, multi-term, and partially constrained factor models for matrix-variate time series are developed, with efficient estimation procedures and their asymptotic properties. We show that the convergence rates of the constrained factor loading matrices are much faster than those of the conventional matrix factor analysis under many situations. Simulation studies are carried out to demonstrate the finite-sample performance of the proposed method and its associated asymptotic properties. We illustrate the proposed model with three applications, where the constrained matrix-factor models outperform their unconstrained counterparts in the power of variance explanation under the out-of-sample 10-fold cross-validation setting.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Rate-Optimal Robust Estimation of High-Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models

High-dimensional time series data appear in many scientific areas in the current data-rich environment. Analysis of such data poses new challenges to data analysts because of not only the complicated dynamic dependence between the series, but also the existence of aberrant observations, such as missing values, contaminated observations, and heavy-tailed distributions. For high-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models, we introduce a unified estimation procedure that is robust to model misspecification, heavy-tailed noise contamination, and conditional heteroscedasticity. The proposed methodology enjoys both statistical optimality and computational efficiency, and can handle many popular high-dimensional models, such as sparse, reduced-rank, banded, and network-structured VAR models. With proper regularization and data truncation, the estimation convergence rates are shown to be almost optimal in the minimax sense under a bounded $(2+2ε)$-th moment condition. When $ε\geq1$, the rates of convergence match those obtained under the sub-Gaussian assumption. Consistency of the proposed estimators is also established for some $ε\in(0,1)$, with minimax optimal convergence rates associated with $ε$. The efficacy of the proposed estimation methods is demonstrated by simulation and a U.S. macroeconomic example.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

High-dimensional Linear Regression for Dependent Data with Applications to Nowcasting

Recent research has focused on $\ell_1$ penalized least squares (Lasso) estimators for high-dimensional linear regressions in which the number of covariates $p$ is considerably larger than the sample size $n$. However, few studies have examined the properties of the estimators when the errors and/or the covariates are serially dependent. In this study, we investigate the theoretical properties of the Lasso estimator for a linear regression with a random design and weak sparsity under serially dependent and/or nonsubGaussian errors and covariates. In contrast to the traditional case, in which the errors are independent and identically distributed and have finite exponential moments, we show that $p$ can be at most a power of $n$ if the errors have only finite polynomial moments. In addition, the rate of convergence becomes slower owing to the serial dependence in the errors and the covariates. We also consider the sign consistency of the model selection using the Lasso estimator when there are serial correlations in the errors or the covariates, or both. Adopting the framework of a functional dependence measure, we describe how the rates of convergence and the selection consistency of the estimators depend on the dependence measures and moment conditions of the errors and the covariates. Simulation results show that a Lasso regression can be significantly more powerful than a mixed-frequency data sampling regression (MIDAS) and a Dantzig selector in the presence of irrelevant variables. We apply the results obtained for the Lasso method to nowcasting with mixed-frequency data, in which serially correlated errors and a large number of covariates are common. The empirical results show that the Lasso procedure outperforms the MIDAS regression and the autoregressive model with exogenous variables in terms of both forecasting and nowcasting.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Divide-and-Conquer: A Distributed Hierarchical Factor Approach to Modeling Large-Scale Time Series Data

This paper proposes a hierarchical approximate-factor approach to analyzing high-dimensional, large-scale heterogeneous time series data using distributed computing. The new method employs a multiple-fold dimension reduction procedure using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and shows great promises for modeling large-scale data that cannot be stored nor analyzed by a single machine. Each computer at the basic level performs a PCA to extract common factors among the time series assigned to it and transfers those factors to one and only one node of the second level. Each 2nd-level computer collects the common factors from its subordinates and performs another PCA to select the 2nd-level common factors. This process is repeated until the central server is reached, which collects common factors from its direct subordinates and performs a final PCA to select the global common factors. The noise terms of the 2nd-level approximate factor model are the unique common factors of the 1st-level clusters. We focus on the case of 2 levels in our theoretical derivations, but the idea can easily be generalized to any finite number of hierarchies. We discuss some clustering methods when the group memberships are unknown and introduce a new diffusion index approach to forecasting. We further extend the analysis to unit-root nonstationary time series. Asymptotic properties of the proposed method are derived for the diverging dimension of the data in each computing unit and the sample size $T$. We use both simulated data and real examples to assess the performance of the proposed method in finite samples, and compare our method with the commonly used ones in the literature concerning the forecastability of extracted factors.

stat.ME↗