arXiv subjects

Ruian Ke

Publications and source records attributed to Ruian Ke.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Collaborative estimation and evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 variant nowcasting in the United States

The ability to estimate and predict pathogen variant dynamics can inform public health responses, including planning for increased transmission or severity, shifts in population immunity, or changes to vaccine or therapeutic effectiveness. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the importance of monitoring SARS-CoV-2 variant evolution through viral genome sequencing, enabling predictive models to estimate variant frequencies in the recent past, present, and short-term future. Collaborative forecasting Hubs provided a valuable way to centralize predictive modeling of epidemiological indicators such as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths during the pandemic; however, none existed for variant dynamics. Here, we discuss the creation of the United States SARS-CoV-2 Variant Nowcast Hub, designed to solicit estimates of the relative abundance of a specified set of SARS-CoV-2 variants at the U.S. state level. We discuss the design decisions and challenges in building the Hub and its scoring procedures. Using submissions from the Hub's first respiratory virus season (nowcast dates October 9th, 2024 to June 4th, 2025), we evaluate five individual models and a baseline model. We found that the baseline model, which pools sequences across the U.S., performs well overall, with most individual models performing similarly or slightly worse. Locations with lower sequencing volumes exhibited greater variability in model performance. Models submitted for a single location outperformed those submitted for all locations, potentially due to greater timeliness and magnitude of local data. Much remains to be investigated regarding relative model performance across different phases of variant emergence, and we conclude by proposing future directions within and beyond this Hub.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Roadmap for using large language models (LLMs) to accelerate cross-disciplinary research with an example from computational biology

Large language models (LLMs) are powerful artificial intelligence (AI) tools transforming how research is conducted. However, their use in research has been met with skepticism, due to concerns about hallucinations, biases and potential harms to research. These emphasize the importance of clearly understanding the strengths and weaknesses of LLMs to ensure their effective and responsible use. Here, we present a roadmap for integrating LLMs into cross-disciplinary research, where effective communication, knowledge transfer and collaboration across diverse fields are essential but often challenging. We examine the capabilities and limitations of LLMs and provide a detailed computational biology case study (on modeling HIV rebound dynamics) demonstrating how iterative interactions with an LLM (ChatGPT) can facilitate interdisciplinary collaboration and research. We argue that LLMs are best used as augmentative tools within a human-in-the-loop framework. Looking forward, we envisage that the responsible use of LLMs will enhance innovative cross-disciplinary research and substantially accelerate scientific discoveries.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

q-bio.PE↗