arXiv subjects

Ruijian Gou

Publications and source records attributed to Ruijian Gou.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

PnP-Corrector: A Universal Correction Framework for Coupled Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Coupled spatiotemporal forecasting is important for predicting the future evolution of multiple interacting dynamical systems, such as in climate models. However, existing methods are severely constrained by the persistent bottleneck of compounding errors. In coupled systems, errors from each subsystem simulator propagate and amplify one another, a phenomenon we term Reciprocal Error Amplification, leading to a rapid collapse of long-range predictions. To address this challenge, we propose a universal framework called PnP-Corrector (Plug-and-Play Corrector). The core idea of our framework is to decouple the physical simulation from the error correction process: it freezes pre-trained physics simulation engines and exclusively trains a correction agent to proactively counteract the systematic biases emerging from the coupled system. Furthermore, we design an efficient predictive model architecture, DSLCast, to serve as the backbone of this framework. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly enhances the long-term stability and accuracy of coupled forecasting systems. For instance, in the challenging task of a 300-day global ocean-atmosphere coupled forecast, our PnP-Corrector framework reduces the prediction error of the baseline model by 28% and surpasses state-of-the-art models on several key metrics.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

OMNIFLOW: A Physics-Grounded Multimodal Agent for Generalized Scientific Reasoning

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional logical reasoning capabilities but frequently struggle with the continuous spatiotemporal dynamics governed by Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), often resulting in non-physical hallucinations. Existing approaches typically resort to costly, domain-specific fine-tuning, which severely limits cross-domain generalization and interpretability. To bridge this gap, we propose OMNIFLOW, a neuro-symbolic architecture designed to ground frozen multimodal LLMs in fundamental physical laws without requiring domain-specific parameter updates. OMNIFLOW introduces a novel \textit{Semantic-Symbolic Alignment} mechanism that projects high-dimensional flow tensors into topological linguistic descriptors, enabling the model to perceive physical structures rather than raw pixel values. Furthermore, we construct a Physics-Guided Chain-of-Thought (PG-CoT) workflow that orchestrates reasoning through dynamic constraint injection (e.g., mass conservation) and iterative reflexive verification. We evaluate OMNIFLOW on a comprehensive benchmark spanning microscopic turbulence, theoretical Navier-Stokes equations, and macroscopic global weather forecasting. Empirical results demonstrate that OMNIFLOW significantly outperforms traditional deep learning baselines in zero-shot generalization and few-shot adaptation tasks. Crucially, it offers transparent, physically consistent reasoning reports, marking a paradigm shift from black-box fitting to interpretable scientific reasoning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

HybridOM: Hybrid Physics-Based and Data-Driven Global Ocean Modeling with Efficient Spatial Downscaling

Global ocean modeling is vital for climate science but struggles to balance computational efficiency with accuracy. Traditional numerical solvers are accurate but computationally expensive, while pure deep learning approaches, though fast, often lack physical consistency and long-term stability. To address this, we introduce HybridOM, a framework integrating a lightweight, differentiable numerical solver as a skeleton to enforce physical laws, with a neural network as the flesh to correct subgrid-scale dynamics. To enable efficient high-resolution modeling, we further introduce a physics-informed regional downscaling mechanism based on flux gating. This design achieves the inference efficiency of AI-based methods while preserving the accuracy and robustness of physical models. Extensive experiments on the GLORYS12V1 and OceanBench dataset validate HybridOM's performance in two distinct regimes: long-term subseasonal-to-seasonal simulation and short-term operational forecasting coupled with the FuXi-2.0 weather model. Results demonstrate that HybridOM achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while strictly maintaining physical consistency, offering a robust solution for next-generation ocean digital twins. Our source code is available at https://github.com/ChiyodaMomo01/HybridOM.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Cracking the Code of Arctic Sea Ice: Why Models Fail to Predict Its Retreat?

Arctic sea ice is rapidly retreating due to global warming, and emerging evidence suggests that the rate of decline may have been underestimated. A key factor contributing to this underestimation is the coarse resolution of current climate models, which fail to accurately represent eddy floe interactions, climate extremes, and other critical small scale processes. Here, we elucidate the roles of these dynamics in accelerating sea ice melt and emphasize the need for higher resolution models to improve projections of Arctic sea ice.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Ocean-E2E: Hybrid Physics-Based and Data-Driven Global Forecasting of Extreme Marine Heatwaves with End-to-End Neural Assimilation

This work focuses on the end-to-end forecast of global extreme marine heatwaves (MHWs), which are unusually warm sea surface temperature events with profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Accurate prediction of extreme MHWs has significant scientific and financial worth. However, existing methods still have certain limitations in forecasting general patterns and extreme events. In this study, to address these issues, based on the physical nature of MHWs, we created a novel hybrid data-driven and numerical MHWs forecast framework Ocean-E2E, which is capable of 40-day accurate MHW forecasting with end-to-end data assimilation. Our framework significantly improves the forecast ability of MHWs by explicitly modeling the effect of oceanic mesoscale advection and air-sea interaction based on a dynamic kernel. Furthermore, Ocean-E2E is capable of end-to-end MHWs forecast and regional high-resolution prediction, allowing our framework to operate completely independently of numerical models while outperforming the current state-of-the-art ocean numerical/AI forecasting-assimilation models. Experimental results show that the proposed framework performs excellently on global-to-regional scales and short-to-long-term forecasts, especially in those most extreme MHWs. Overall, our model provides a framework for forecasting and understanding MHWs and other climate extremes. The source code is available at https://github.com/ChiyodaMomo01/Ocean-E2E.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

NeuralOM: Neural Ocean Model for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Simulation

Long-term, high-fidelity simulation of slow-changing physical systems, such as the ocean and climate, presents a fundamental challenge in scientific computing. Traditional autoregressive machine learning models often fail in these tasks as minor errors accumulate and lead to rapid forecast degradation. To address this problem, we propose NeuralOM, a general neural operator framework designed for simulating complex, slow-changing dynamics. NeuralOM's core consists of two key innovations: (1) a Progressive Residual Correction Framework that decomposes the forecasting task into a series of fine-grained refinement steps, effectively suppressing long-term error accumulation; and (2) a Physics-Guided Graph Network whose built-in adaptive messaging mechanism explicitly models multi-scale physical interactions, such as gradient-driven flows and multiplicative couplings, thereby enhancing physical consistency while maintaining computational efficiency. We validate NeuralOM on the challenging task of global Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) ocean simulation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NeuralOM not only surpasses state-of-the-art models in forecast accuracy and long-term stability, but also excels in simulating extreme events. For instance, at a 60-day lead time, NeuralOM achieves a 13.3% lower RMSE compared to the best-performing baseline, offering a stable, efficient, and physically-aware paradigm for data-driven scientific computing. Code link: https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/NeuralOM.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Advanced Long-term Earth System Forecasting

Reliable long-term forecasting of Earth system dynamics is fundamentally limited by instabilities in current artificial intelligence (AI) models during extended autoregressive simulations. These failures often originate from inherent spectral bias, leading to inadequate representation of critical high-frequency, small-scale processes and subsequent uncontrolled error amplification. Inspired by the nested grids in numerical models used to resolve small scales, we present TritonCast. At the core of its design is a dedicated latent dynamical core, which ensures the long-term stability of the macro-evolution at a coarse scale. An outer structure then fuses this stable trend with fine-grained local details. This design effectively mitigates the spectral bias caused by cross-scale interactions. In atmospheric science, it achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on the WeatherBench 2 benchmark while demonstrating exceptional long-term stability: executing year-long autoregressive global forecasts and completing multi-year climate simulations that span the entire available $2500$-day test period without drift. In oceanography, it extends skillful eddy forecast to $120$ days and exhibits unprecedented zero-shot cross-resolution generalization. Ablation studies reveal that this performance stems from the synergistic interplay of the architecture's core components. TritonCast thus offers a promising pathway towards a new generation of trustworthy, AI-driven simulations. This significant advance has the potential to accelerate discovery in climate and Earth system science, enabling more reliable long-term forecasting and deeper insights into complex geophysical dynamics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Improved Forecasts of Global Extreme Marine Heatwaves Through a Physics-guided Data-driven Approach

The unusually warm sea surface temperature events known as marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a profound impact on marine ecosystems. Accurate prediction of extreme MHWs has significant scientific and financial worth. However, existing methods still have certain limitations, especially in the most extreme MHWs. In this study, to address these issues, based on the physical nature of MHWs, we created a novel deep learning neural network that is capable of accurate 10-day MHW forecasting. Our framework significantly improves the forecast ability of extreme MHWs through two specially designed modules inspired by numerical models: a coupler and a probabilistic data argumentation. The coupler simulates the driving effect of atmosphere on MHWs while the probabilistic data argumentation approaches significantly boost the forecast ability of extreme MHWs based on the idea of ensemble forecast. Compared with traditional numerical prediction, our framework has significantly higher accuracy and requires fewer computational resources. What's more, explainable AI methods show that wind forcing is the primary driver of MHW evolution and reveal its relation with air-sea heat exchange. Overall, our model provides a framework for understanding MHWs' driving processes and operational forecasts in the future.

physics.ao-ph↗