arXiv subjects

Ruixiao Xu

Publications and source records attributed to Ruixiao Xu.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Bayesian Robust Financial Trading with Adversarial Synthetic Market Data

Algorithmic trading relies on machine learning models to make trading decisions. Despite strong in-sample performance, these models often degrade when confronted with evolving real-world market regimes, which can shift dramatically due to macroeconomic changes-e.g., monetary policy updates or unanticipated fluctuations in participant behavior. We identify two challenges that perpetuate this mismatch: (1) insufficient robustness in existing policy against uncertainties in high-level market fluctuations, and (2) the absence of a realistic and diverse simulation environment for training, leading to policy overfitting. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian Robust Framework that systematically integrates a macro-conditioned generative model with robust policy learning. On the data side, to generate realistic and diverse data, we propose a macro-conditioned GAN-based generator that leverages macroeconomic indicators as primary control variables, synthesizing data with faithful temporal, cross-instrument, and macro correlations. On the policy side, to learn robust policy against market fluctuations, we cast the trading process as a two-player zero-sum Bayesian Markov game, wherein an adversarial agent simulates shifting regimes by perturbing macroeconomic indicators in the macro-conditioned generator, while the trading agent-guided by a quantile belief network-maintains and updates its belief over hidden market states. The trading agent seeks a Robust Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium via Bayesian neural fictitious self-play, stabilizing learning under adversarial market perturbations. Extensive experiments on 9 financial instruments demonstrate that our framework outperforms 9 state-of-the-art baselines. In extreme events like the COVID, our method shows improved profitability and risk management, offering a reliable solution for trading under uncertain and shifting market dynamics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Empirical Study on Robustness and Resilience in Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

In cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), it is a common practice to tune hyperparameters in ideal simulated environments to maximize cooperative performance. However, policies tuned for cooperation often fail to maintain robustness and resilience under real-world uncertainties. Building trustworthy MARL systems requires a deep understanding of robustness, which ensures stability under uncertainties, and resilience, the ability to recover from disruptions--a concept extensively studied in control systems but largely overlooked in MARL. In this paper, we present a large-scale empirical study comprising over 82,620 experiments to evaluate cooperation, robustness, and resilience in MARL across 4 real-world environments, 13 uncertainty types, and 15 hyperparameters. Our key findings are: (1) Under mild uncertainty, optimizing cooperation improves robustness and resilience, but this link weakens as perturbations intensify. Robustness and resilience also varies by algorithm and uncertainty type. (2) Robustness and resilience do not generalize across uncertainty modalities or agent scopes: policies robust to action noise for all agents may fail under observation noise on a single agent. (3) Hyperparameter tuning is critical for trustworthy MARL: surprisingly, standard practices like parameter sharing, GAE, and PopArt can hurt robustness, while early stopping, high critic learning rates, and Leaky ReLU consistently help. By optimizing hyperparameters only, we observe substantial improvement in cooperation, robustness and resilience across all MARL backbones, with the phenomenon also generalizing to robust MARL methods across these backbones. Code and results available at https://github.com/BUAA-TrustworthyMARL/adv_marl_benchmark .

cs.MA↗

arXiv2025

Vulnerable Agent Identification in Large-Scale Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Partial agent failure becomes inevitable when systems scale up, making it crucial to identify the subset of agents whose failure causes worst-case system performance degradations. We study this Vulnerable Agent Identification (VAI) problem in large-scale multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). We frame VAI as a Hierarchical Adversarial Decentralized Mean Field Control (HAD-MFC), where the upper level selects vulnerable agents as an NP-hard task and the lower level learns their worst-case adversarial policies via mean-field MARL. The two problems are coupled together, making HAD-MFC difficult to solve. To handle this, we first decouple the hierarchical process by Fenchel-Rockafellar transform, resulting a regularized mean-field Bellman operator for upper level that enables independent learning at each level, thus reducing computational complexity. We next reformulate the upper-level NP-hard problem as an MDP with dense rewards, allowing sequential identification of vulnerable agents via greedy and RL algorithms. This decomposition provably preserves the optimal solution. Experiments show our method effectively identifies more vulnerable agents in large-scale MARL and the rule-based system, fooling system into worse failures, and reveals the vulnerability of each agent in large systems. Code available at https://github.com/Waken-dream/VAI

cs.MA↗

arXiv2024

Byzantine Robust Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning as a Bayesian Game

In this study, we explore the robustness of cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (c-MARL) against Byzantine failures, where any agent can enact arbitrary, worst-case actions due to malfunction or adversarial attack. To address the uncertainty that any agent can be adversarial, we propose a Bayesian Adversarial Robust Dec-POMDP (BARDec-POMDP) framework, which views Byzantine adversaries as nature-dictated types, represented by a separate transition. This allows agents to learn policies grounded on their posterior beliefs about the type of other agents, fostering collaboration with identified allies and minimizing vulnerability to adversarial manipulation. We define the optimal solution to the BARDec-POMDP as an ex post robust Bayesian Markov perfect equilibrium, which we proof to exist and weakly dominates the equilibrium of previous robust MARL approaches. To realize this equilibrium, we put forward a two-timescale actor-critic algorithm with almost sure convergence under specific conditions. Experimentation on matrix games, level-based foraging and StarCraft II indicate that, even under worst-case perturbations, our method successfully acquires intricate micromanagement skills and adaptively aligns with allies, demonstrating resilience against non-oblivious adversaries, random allies, observation-based attacks, and transfer-based attacks.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Robust Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning by Mutual Information Regularization

In multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), ensuring robustness against unpredictable or worst-case actions by allies is crucial for real-world deployment. Existing robust MARL methods either approximate or enumerate all possible threat scenarios against worst-case adversaries, leading to computational intensity and reduced robustness. In contrast, human learning efficiently acquires robust behaviors in daily life without preparing for every possible threat. Inspired by this, we frame robust MARL as an inference problem, with worst-case robustness implicitly optimized under all threat scenarios via off-policy evaluation. Within this framework, we demonstrate that Mutual Information Regularization as Robust Regularization (MIR3) during routine training is guaranteed to maximize a lower bound on robustness, without the need for adversaries. Further insights show that MIR3 acts as an information bottleneck, preventing agents from over-reacting to others and aligning policies with robust action priors. In the presence of worst-case adversaries, our MIR3 significantly surpasses baseline methods in robustness and training efficiency while maintaining cooperative performance in StarCraft II and robot swarm control. When deploying the robot swarm control algorithm in the real world, our method also outperforms the best baseline by 14.29%.

cs.LG↗