arXiv subjects

Runze Li

Publications and source records attributed to Runze Li.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Dynamic Mortality Forecasting via Mixed-Frequency State-Space Models

High-frequency death counts are now widely available and contain timely information about intra-year mortality dynamics, but most stochastic mortality models are still estimated on annual data and therefore update only when annual totals are released. We propose a mixed-frequency state-space (MF--SS) extension of the Lee--Carter framework that jointly uses annual mortality rates and monthly death counts. The two series are linked through a shared latent monthly mortality factor, with the annual period factor defined as the intra-year average of the monthly factors. The latent monthly factor follows a seasonal ARIMA process, and parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood using an EM algorithm with Kalman filtering and smoothing. This setup enables real-time intra-year updates of the latent state and forecasts as new monthly observations arrive without re-estimating model parameters. Using U.S. data for ages 20--90 over 1999--2019, we evaluate intra-year annual nowcasts and one- to five-year-ahead forecasts. The MF--SS model produces both a direct annual forecast and an annual forecast implied by aggregating monthly projections. In our application, the aggregated monthly forecast is typically more accurate. Incorporating monthly information substantially improves intra-year annual nowcasts, especially after the first few months of the year. As a benchmark, we also fit separate annual and monthly Lee--Carter models and combine their forecasts using temporal reconciliation. Reconciliation improves these independent forecasts but adds little to MF--SS forecasts, consistent with MF--SS pooling information across frequencies during estimation. The MF--SS aggregated monthly forecasts generally outperform both unreconciled and temporally reconciled Lee--Carter forecasts and produce more cautious predictive intervals than the reconciled Lee--Carter approach.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Targeted learning via probabilistic subpopulation matching

In biomedical research, to obtain more accurate prediction results from a target study, leveraging information from multiple similar source studies is proved to be useful. However, in many biomedical applications based on real-world data, populations under consideration in different studies, e.g., clinical sites, can be heterogeneous, leading to challenges in properly borrowing information towards the target study. The state of art methods are typically based on study-level matching to identify source studies that are similar to the target study, whilst samples from source studies that significantly differ from the target study will all be dropped at the study level, which can lead to substantial loss of information. We consider a general situation where all studies are sampled from a super-population composed of distinct subpopulations, and propose a novel framework of targeted learning via subpopulation matching. In contrast to the existing study-level matching methods, measuring similarities between subpopulations can effectively decompose both within- and between-study heterogeneity, allowing incorporation of information from all source studies without dropping any samples as in the existing methods. We devise the proposed framework as a two-step procedure, where a finite mixture model is first fitted jointly across all studies to provide subject-wise probabilistic subpopulation information, followed by a step of within-subpopulation information transferring from source studies to the target study for each identified subpopulation. We establish the non-asymptotic properties of our estimator and demonstrate the ability of our method to improve prediction at the target study via simulation studies.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Anomalous shift in scattering from topological nodal-ring semimetals

An electron beam may experience an anomalous spatial shift during an interface scattering process. Here, we investigate this phenomenon for reflection from mirror-symmetry-protected nodal-ring semimetals, which are characterized by an integer topological charge $χ_h$. We show that the shift is generally enhanced by the presence of nodal rings, and the ring's geometry can be inferred from the profile of shift vectors in the interface momentum plane. Importantly, the anomalous shift encodes the topological information of the ring, where the circulation of the shift vector field $κ_s$ over a semicircle is governed by the topological charge, with a simple relationship: $κ_s=-2πχ_h$. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the shift and its circulation reflect distinct features of topological phase transitions of the charged rings. This study uncovers a novel physical signature of topological nodal rings and positions anomalous scattering shifts as a powerful tool for probing topological band structures.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2025

RobustVLA: Robustness-Aware Reinforcement Post-Training for Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have recently emerged as powerful general-purpose policies for robotic manipulation, benefiting from large-scale multi-modal pre-training. However, they often fail to generalize reliably in out-of-distribution deployments, where unavoidable disturbances such as observation noise, sensor errors, or actuation perturbations become prevalent. While recent Reinforcement Learning (RL)-based post-training provides a practical means to adapt pre-trained VLA models, existing methods mainly emphasize reward maximization and overlook robustness to environmental uncertainty. In this work, we introduce RobustVLA, a lightweight online RL post-training method designed to explicitly enhance the resilience of VLA models. Through a systematic robustness analysis, we identify two key regularizations: Jacobian regularization, which mitigates sensitivity to observation noise, and smoothness regularization, which stabilizes policies under action perturbations. Extensive experiments across diverse robotic environments demonstrate that RobustVLA significantly outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods in robustness and reliability. Our results highlight the importance of principled robustness-aware RL post-training as a key step toward improving the reliability and robustness of VLA models.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

LOCAL: A Locality-based Active Learning Framework for Predicting the Stability of Dual-Atom Catalysts

Dual-atom catalysts supported on nitrogen-doped graphene (DAC/NG) are emerging as a family of promising catalysts that can overcome intrinsic limitations of single-atom catalysts. However, comprehensive assessment of their structural stability is prohibitively demanding due to a vast local configurational space. Here we introduce LOCAL, a locality-based framework that combines graph convolutional networks with active learning to efficiently predict DAC/NG stability by leveraging chemically intuitive locality quantified by crystal orbital Hamilton population analysis. We demonstrate the effectiveness of LOCAL over a comprehensive dataset of 611,648 DAC/NG structures, achieving a test mean absolute error of 0.15~eV while invoking density functional theory calculations for only 16,704 structures (2.7% of the dataset). Thus, LOCAL enables efficient and accurate construction of phase diagrams for DAC/NG across diverse compositions reciprocally validated with experimentally synthesized configurations for representative systems. Our framework composes an essential methodology for accelerating the discovery and optimization of high-performance complex catalysts.

physics.chem-ph↗

arXiv2025

High-Harmonic Optical Vortex Generation from a Plasma Aperture

When a high-power, femtosecond, circularly polarized (CP) laser pulse is incident on a micrometer-scale aperture in a solid foil target, it drives surface plasma oscillation, generating high-order harmonic vortices in the diffracted light. However, this mechanism has so far only been studied theoretically under ideal conditions. In this work, we perform numerical studies on more realistic situations. In particular, we focus on a scenario where the laser is obliquely incident on the target surface to avoid the potential damage of the optics by the reflected light. We demonstrate that increasing oblique incidence angle, reducing target thickness, and improving laser contrast can enhance the harmonic conversion efficiency. However, the generated harmonic beams may contain both Laguerre-Gaussian (LG) (vortex) and non-LG components under non-ideal conditions. We show that they can be separated by their divergence, as the vortex components has smaller diverging angle. In addition, we have performed computational analyses on the harmonic divergence angles and topological charge spectra of vortex high-order harmonics under different conditions. These high-order harmonic pure LG modes can potentially be filtered out for wide range of fundamental and applied physics researches. This study provides valuable insights for the design and implementation of future experiments.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2025

Memory-Anchored Multimodal Reasoning for Explainable Video Forensics

We address multimodal deepfake detection requiring both robustness and interpretability by proposing FakeHunter, a unified framework that combines memory guided retrieval, a structured Observation-Thought-Action reasoning loop, and adaptive forensic tool invocation. Visual representations from a Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) model and audio representations from a Contrastive Language-Audio Pretraining (CLAP) model retrieve semantically aligned authentic exemplars from a large scale memory, providing contextual anchors that guide iterative localization and explanation of suspected manipulations. Under low internal confidence the framework selectively triggers fine grained analyses such as spatial region zoom and mel spectrogram inspection to gather discriminative evidence instead of relying on opaque marginal scores. We also release X-AVFake, a comprehensive audio visual forgery benchmark with fine grained annotations of manipulation type, affected region or entity, reasoning category, and explanatory justification, designed to stress contextual grounding and explanation fidelity. Extensive experiments show that FakeHunter surpasses strong multimodal baselines, and ablation studies confirm that both contextual retrieval and selective tool activation are indispensable for improved robustness and explanatory precision.

cs.MM↗

arXiv2025

Weakly Supervised Anomaly Detection in Events with a Higgs Boson and Exotic Physics

We present a machine learning-based anomaly detection strategy designed to identify anomalous physics in events containing resonant Standard Model physics and demonstrate this method on the final state of a Higgs boson decaying to two photons. The demonstration targets high-dimensional deviations in the region of phase space containing the Higgs mass peak in a fully signal-agnostic manner. A latent-space embedding, learned from event kinematics, enables the use of a large set of potentially sensitive features. Backgrounds are estimated using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning-based generative modelling with traditional simulation, and a discriminator is trained in the latent space to distinguish data from background estimates. After applying a selection on the classifier output, the invariant mass distribution of the diphoton system is examined for localized excesses above the simulated Higgs peak. We benchmark the sensitivity of this strategy using simplified simulated proton-proton collisions corresponding to data recorded during Run 2 of the LHC, and show that the method can provide significant improvements in sensitivity, even for small signal injections that could remain undetected in an inclusive analysis. These results demonstrate that the proposed strategy is a promising and viable approach for future searches and should be applied to recorded collider data.

hep-ex↗

arXiv2025

D-RDW: Diversity-Driven Random Walks for News Recommender Systems

This paper introduces Diversity-Driven RandomWalks (D-RDW), a lightweight algorithm and re-ranking technique that generates diverse news recommendations. D-RDW is a societal recommender, which combines the diversification capabilities of the traditional random walk algorithms with customizable target distributions of news article properties. In doing so, our model provides a transparent approach for editors to incorporate norms and values into the recommendation process. D-RDW shows enhanced performance across key diversity metrics that consider the articles' sentiment and political party mentions when compared to state-of-the-art neural models. Furthermore, D-RDW proves to be more computationally efficient than existing approaches.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2025

Informfully Recommenders -- Reproducibility Framework for Diversity-aware Intra-session Recommendations

Norm-aware recommender systems have gained increased attention, especially for diversity optimization. The recommender systems community has well-established experimentation pipelines that support reproducible evaluations by facilitating models' benchmarking and comparisons against state-of-the-art methods. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is currently no reproducibility framework to support thorough norm-driven experimentation at the pre-processing, in-processing, post-processing, and evaluation stages of the recommender pipeline. To address this gap, we present Informfully Recommenders, a first step towards a normative reproducibility framework that focuses on diversity-aware design built on Cornac. Our extension provides an end-to-end solution for implementing and experimenting with normative and general-purpose diverse recommender systems that cover 1) dataset pre-processing, 2) diversity-optimized models, 3) dedicated intrasession item re-ranking, and 4) an extensive set of diversity metrics. We demonstrate the capabilities of our extension through an extensive offline experiment in the news domain.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2025

Stable gradient-adjusted root mean square propagation on least squares problem

Root mean square propagation (abbreviated as RMSProp) is a first-order stochastic algorithm used in machine learning widely. In this paper, a stable gradient-adjusted RMSProp (abbreviated as SGA-RMSProp) with mini-batch stochastic gradient is proposed, and its properties are studied on the linear least squares problem. R-linear convergence of the algorithm is established on the consistent linear least squares problem. The algorithm is also proved to converge R-linearly to a neighborhood of the minimizer for the inconsistent case, with the region of the neighborhood being controlled by the batch size. Furthermore, numerical experiments are conducted to compare the performances of SGA-RMSProp, stochastic gradient descent (abbreviated as SGD), and the original RMSProp with different batch sizes. The faster initial convergence rate of SGA-RMSProp is observed through numerical experiments and an adaptive strategy for switching from SGA-RMSProp to SGD is proposed, which combines the benefits of these two algorithms.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

General Compression Framework for Efficient Transformer Object Tracking

Previous works have attempted to improve tracking efficiency through lightweight architecture design or knowledge distillation from teacher models to compact student trackers. However, these solutions often sacrifice accuracy for speed to a great extent, and also have the problems of complex training process and structural limitations. Thus, we propose a general model compression framework for efficient transformer object tracking, named CompressTracker, to reduce model size while preserving tracking accuracy. Our approach features a novel stage division strategy that segments the transformer layers of the teacher model into distinct stages to break the limitation of model structure. Additionally, we also design a unique replacement training technique that randomly substitutes specific stages in the student model with those from the teacher model, as opposed to training the student model in isolation. Replacement training enhances the student model's ability to replicate the teacher model's behavior and simplifies the training process. To further forcing student model to emulate teacher model, we incorporate prediction guidance and stage-wise feature mimicking to provide additional supervision during the teacher model's compression process. CompressTracker is structurally agnostic, making it compatible with any transformer architecture. We conduct a series of experiment to verify the effectiveness and generalizability of our CompressTracker. Our CompressTracker-SUTrack, compressed from SUTrack, retains about 99 performance on LaSOT (72.2 AUC) while achieves 2.42x speed up. Code is available at https://github.com/LingyiHongfd/CompressTracker.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Relativistic Oscillating Window Driven by an Intense Laguerre Gaussian Laser Pulse

High-order harmonic generation by the diffraction of an intense Laguerre-Gaussian (LG) laser beam through a small aperture is studied. It is found that the 2D peripheral electron dynamics on the rim can facilitate complex interplay between the spin and orbital angular momentum interaction, which leads to distinct selection rules for LG pulses with different polarization states. In particular, when the driver is linearly polarized, the harmonic beams no longer follow a simple orbital angular momentum conservation rule. Instead, multiple LG modes with different topological charges are produced in each harmonic beam, and the number of modes equals to the harmonic order. A theory is derived and validated by simulations, which can predict the harmonic topological charges as well as their relative intensities for LG drivers with different polarization states. Our work provides fundamental insight into the behavior of light in nonlinear optics, and paves the way towards high-intensity UV or X-ray pulses carrying controllable OAM, that can serve as versatile tools at frontiers of various scientific fields.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2025

Functional data decomposition reveals unexpectedly strong soil moisture-precipitation coupling over the Great Plains

Soil moisture-precipitation coupling (SMPC) plays a critical role in Earth's water and energy cycles but remains difficult to quantify due to synoptic-scale variability and the complex interplay of land-atmosphere processes. Here, we apply high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) to functionally decompose the structural, correlative, and cooperative contributions of key land-atmosphere variables to precipitation. Benchmark tests confirm that HDMR overcomes limitations of commonly used correlation and regression approaches in isolating direct versus indirect effects. For example, analysis of gross primary productivity using a light-use-efficiency model shows that linear regression underestimates the temperature effect, while HDMR captures it accurately. Applying HDMR to CONUS404 reanalysis data reveals that morning soil moisture explains up to 40 percent of the variance in summertime afternoon precipitation over the Great Plains, more than double prior estimates. On days with afternoon rainfall (12-hour totals of 4.7-8.2 mm), first-order SM effects can boost precipitation by up to 8 mm under wet conditions, with an additional 3 mm from second-order interactions involving temperature and moisture. By capturing real-world co-variability and higher-order effects, HDMR provides a physically grounded, data-driven framework for diagnosing land-atmosphere coupling. These results underscore the need for more nuanced, interaction-aware data analysis methods in climate modeling and prediction.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Single-Node Trigger Backdoor Attacks in Graph-Based Recommendation Systems

Graph recommendation systems have been widely studied due to their ability to effectively capture the complex interactions between users and items. However, these systems also exhibit certain vulnerabilities when faced with attacks. The prevailing shilling attack methods typically manipulate recommendation results by injecting a large number of fake nodes and edges. However, such attack strategies face two primary challenges: low stealth and high destructiveness. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel graph backdoor attack method that aims to enhance the exposure of target items to the target user in a covert manner, without affecting other unrelated nodes. Specifically, we design a single-node trigger generator, which can effectively expose multiple target items to the target user by inserting only one fake user node. Additionally, we introduce constraint conditions between the target nodes and irrelevant nodes to mitigate the impact of fake nodes on the recommendation system's performance. Experimental results show that the exposure of the target items reaches no less than 50% in 99% of the target users, while the impact on the recommendation system's performance is controlled within approximately 5%.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Understanding the Statistical Accuracy-Communication Trade-off in Personalized Federated Learning with Minimax Guarantees

Personalized federated learning (PFL) offers a flexible framework for aggregating information across distributed clients with heterogeneous data. This work considers a personalized federated learning setting that simultaneously learns global and local models. While purely local training has no communication cost, collaborative learning among the clients can leverage shared knowledge to improve statistical accuracy, presenting an accuracy-communication trade-off in personalized federated learning. However, the theoretical analysis of how personalization quantitatively influences sample and algorithmic efficiency and their inherent trade-off is largely unexplored. This paper makes a contribution towards filling this gap, by providing a quantitative characterization of the personalization degree on the tradeoff. The results further offers theoretical insights for choosing the personalization degree. As a side contribution, we establish the minimax optimality in terms of statistical accuracy for a widely studied PFL formulation. The theoretical result is validated on both synthetic and real-world datasets and its generalizability is verified in a non-convex setting.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Generator Based Inference (GBI)

Statistical inference in physics is often based on samples from a generator (sometimes referred to as a ``forward model") that emulate experimental data and depend on parameters of the underlying theory. Modern machine learning has supercharged this workflow to enable high-dimensional and unbinned analyses to utilize much more information than ever before. We propose a general framework for describing the integration of machine learning with generators called Generator Based Inference (GBI). A well-studied special case of this setup is Simulation Based Inference (SBI) where the generator is a physics-based simulator. In this work, we examine other methods within the GBI toolkit that use data-driven methods to build the generator. In particular, we focus on resonant anomaly detection, where the generator describing the background is learned from sidebands. We show how to perform machine learning-based parameter estimation in this context with data-derived generators. This transforms the statistical outputs of anomaly detection to be directly interpretable and the performance on the LHCO community benchmark dataset establishes a new state-of-the-art for anomaly detection sensitivity.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2025

CIKT: A Collaborative and Iterative Knowledge Tracing Framework with Large Language Models

Knowledge Tracing (KT) aims to model a student's learning state over time and predict their future performance. However, traditional KT methods often face challenges in explainability, scalability, and effective modeling of complex knowledge dependencies. While Large Language Models (LLMs) present new avenues for KT, their direct application often struggles with generating structured, explainable student representations and lacks mechanisms for continuous, task-specific refinement. To address these gaps, we propose Collaborative Iterative Knowledge Tracing (CIKT), a framework that harnesses LLMs to enhance both prediction accuracy and explainability. CIKT employs a dual-component architecture: an Analyst generates dynamic, explainable user profiles from student historical responses, and a Predictor utilizes these profiles to forecast future performance. The core of CIKT is a synergistic optimization loop. In this loop, the Analyst is iteratively refined based on the predictive accuracy of the Predictor, which conditions on the generated profiles, and the Predictor is subsequently retrained using these enhanced profiles. Evaluated on multiple educational datasets, CIKT demonstrates significant improvements in prediction accuracy, offers enhanced explainability through its dynamically updated user profiles, and exhibits improved scalability. Our work presents a robust and explainable solution for advancing knowledge tracing systems, effectively bridging the gap between predictive performance and model transparency.

cs.AI↗