arXiv subjects

Ruoqing Zhu

Publications and source records attributed to Ruoqing Zhu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Vector-Valued Distributional Reinforcement Learning Policy Evaluation: A Hilbert Space Embedding Approach

We propose an (offline) multi-dimensional distributional reinforcement learning framework (KE-DRL) that leverages Hilbert space mappings to estimate the kernel mean embedding of the multi-dimensional value distribution under a proposed target policy. In our setting, the state-action variables are multi-dimensional and continuous. By mapping probability measures into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space via kernel mean embeddings, our method replaces Wasserstein metrics with an integral probability metric. This enables efficient estimation in multi-dimensional state-action spaces and reward settings, where direct computation of Wasserstein distances is computationally challenging. Theoretically, we establish contraction properties of the distributional Bellman operator under our proposed metric involving the Matern family of kernels and provide uniform convergence guarantees. Simulations and empirical results demonstrate robust off-policy evaluation and recovery of the kernel mean embedding under mild assumptions, namely, Lipschitz continuity and boundedness of the kernels, highlighting the potential of embedding-based approaches in complex real-world decision-making scenarios and risk evaluation.

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arXiv2026

Rectified Fisher-Bingham Model for Compositional Data with Zeros

This paper introduces a rectified and renormalized Fisher-Bingham model for compositional data with zeros, motivated in part by the presence of zeros in microbiota studies. The approach represents compositions through a square-root transformation that maps data to the positive orthant of the unit sphere, and models them via a latent Fisher-Bingham followed by a deterministic transformation that induces exact zeros. This construction yields a coherent likelihood without requiring zero imputation or separate modeling of zero and nonzero components. Parameter estimation is performed using a Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm that accommodates the latent structure. We further develop a score test for detecting structured differences in composition across groups, providing a parametric alternative to commonly used distance-based methods. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method closely approximates the induced distribution and achieves higher power for detecting structured compositional changes, particularly when observations include many zero-valued components. An application to a dietary intervention study illustrates that the method identifies meaningful microbiota shifts not detected by standard approaches.

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arXiv2025

Reinforcement Learning with Continuous Actions Under Unmeasured Confounding

This paper addresses the challenge of offline policy learning in reinforcement learning with continuous action spaces when unmeasured confounders are present. While most existing research focuses on policy evaluation within partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) and assumes discrete action spaces, we advance this field by establishing a novel identification result to enable the nonparametric estimation of policy value for a given target policy under an infinite-horizon framework. Leveraging this identification, we develop a minimax estimator and introduce a policy-gradient-based algorithm to identify the in-class optimal policy that maximizes the estimated policy value. Furthermore, we provide theoretical results regarding the consistency, finite-sample error bound, and regret bound of the resulting optimal policy. Extensive simulations and a real-world application using the German Family Panel data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology.

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arXiv2025

Random Forest Weighted Local Fréchet Regression with Random Objects

Statistical analysis is increasingly confronted with complex data from metric spaces. Petersen and Müller (2019) established a general paradigm of Fréchet regression with complex metric space valued responses and Euclidean predictors. However, the local approach therein involves nonparametric kernel smoothing and suffers from the curse of dimensionality. To address this issue, we in this paper propose a novel random forest weighted local Fréchet regression paradigm. The main mechanism of our approach relies on a locally adaptive kernel generated by random forests. Our first method uses these weights as the local average to solve the conditional Fréchet mean, while the second method performs local linear Fréchet regression, both significantly improving existing Fréchet regression methods. Based on the theory of infinite order U-processes and infinite order $M_{m_n}$-estimator, we establish the consistency, rate of convergence, and asymptotic normality for our local constant estimator, which covers the current large sample theory of random forests with Euclidean responses as a special case. Numerical studies show the superiority of our methods with several commonly encountered types of responses such as distribution functions, symmetric positive-definite matrices, and sphere data. The practical merits of our proposals are also demonstrated through the application to New York taxi data and human mortality data.

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arXiv2024

Stage-Aware Learning for Dynamic Treatments

Recent advances in dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) facilitate the search for optimal treatments, which are tailored to individuals' specific needs and able to maximize their expected clinical benefits. However, existing algorithms relying on consistent trajectories, such as inverse probability weighting estimators (IPWEs), could suffer from insufficient sample size under optimal treatments and a growing number of decision-making stages, particularly in the context of chronic diseases. To address these challenges, we propose a novel individualized learning method which estimates the DTR with a focus on prioritizing alignment between the observed treatment trajectory and the one obtained by the optimal regime across decision stages. By relaxing the restriction that the observed trajectory must be fully aligned with the optimal treatments, our approach substantially improves the sample efficiency and stability of IPWE-based methods. In particular, the proposed learning scheme builds a more general framework which includes the popular outcome weighted learning framework as a special case of ours. Moreover, we introduce the notion of stage importance scores along with an attention mechanism to explicitly account for heterogeneity among decision stages. We establish the theoretical properties of the proposed approach, including the Fisher consistency and finite-sample performance bound. Empirically, we evaluate the proposed method in extensive simulated environments and a real case study for the COVID-19 pandemic.

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arXiv2024

Consistent Order Determination of Markov Decision Process

The Markov assumption in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) is fundamental in reinforcement learning, influencing both theoretical research and practical applications. Existing methods that rely on the Bellman equation benefit tremendously from this assumption for policy evaluation and inference. Testing the Markov assumption or selecting the appropriate order is important for further analysis. Existing tests primarily utilize sequential hypothesis testing methodology, increasing the tested order if the previously-tested one is rejected. However, This methodology cumulates type-I and type-II errors in sequential testing procedures that cause inconsistent order estimation, even with large sample sizes. To tackle this challenge, we develop a procedure that consistently distinguishes the true order from others. We first propose a novel estimator that equivalently represents any order Markov assumption. Based on this estimator, we thus construct a signal function and an associated signal statistic to achieve estimation consistency. Additionally, the curve pattern of the signal statistic facilitates easy visualization, assisting the order determination process in practice. Numerical studies validate the efficacy of our approach.

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arXiv2023

AI in Pharma for Personalized Sequential Decision-Making: Methods, Applications and Opportunities

In the pharmaceutical industry, the use of artificial intelligence (AI) has seen consistent growth over the past decade. This rise is attributed to major advancements in statistical machine learning methodologies, computational capabilities and the increased availability of large datasets. AI techniques are applied throughout different stages of drug development, ranging from drug discovery to post-marketing benefit-risk assessment. Kolluri et al. provided a review of several case studies that span these stages, featuring key applications such as protein structure prediction, success probability estimation, subgroup identification, and AI-assisted clinical trial monitoring. From a regulatory standpoint, there was a notable uptick in submissions incorporating AI components in 2021. The most prevalent therapeutic areas leveraging AI were oncology (27%), psychiatry (15%), gastroenterology (12%), and neurology (11%). The paradigm of personalized or precision medicine has gained significant traction in recent research, partly due to advancements in AI techniques \cite{hamburg2010path}. This shift has had a transformative impact on the pharmaceutical industry. Departing from the traditional "one-size-fits-all" model, personalized medicine incorporates various individual factors, such as environmental conditions, lifestyle choices, and health histories, to formulate customized treatment plans. By utilizing sophisticated machine learning algorithms, clinicians and researchers are better equipped to make informed decisions in areas such as disease prevention, diagnosis, and treatment selection, thereby optimizing health outcomes for each individual.

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arXiv2023

Quasi-optimal Reinforcement Learning with Continuous Actions

Many real-world applications of reinforcement learning (RL) require making decisions in continuous action environments. In particular, determining the optimal dose level plays a vital role in developing medical treatment regimes. One challenge in adapting existing RL algorithms to medical applications, however, is that the popular infinite support stochastic policies, e.g., Gaussian policy, may assign riskily high dosages and harm patients seriously. Hence, it is important to induce a policy class whose support only contains near-optimal actions, and shrink the action-searching area for effectiveness and reliability. To achieve this, we develop a novel \emph{quasi-optimal learning algorithm}, which can be easily optimized in off-policy settings with guaranteed convergence under general function approximations. Theoretically, we analyze the consistency, sample complexity, adaptability, and convergence of the proposed algorithm. We evaluate our algorithm with comprehensive simulated experiments and a dose suggestion real application to Ohio Type 1 diabetes dataset.

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arXiv2023

Distributional Shift-Aware Off-Policy Interval Estimation: A Unified Error Quantification Framework

We study high-confidence off-policy evaluation in the context of infinite-horizon Markov decision processes, where the objective is to establish a confidence interval (CI) for the target policy value using only offline data pre-collected from unknown behavior policies. This task faces two primary challenges: providing a comprehensive and rigorous error quantification in CI estimation, and addressing the distributional shift that results from discrepancies between the distribution induced by the target policy and the offline data-generating process. Motivated by an innovative unified error analysis, we jointly quantify the two sources of estimation errors: the misspecification error on modeling marginalized importance weights and the statistical uncertainty due to sampling, within a single interval. This unified framework reveals a previously hidden tradeoff between the errors, which undermines the tightness of the CI. Relying on a carefully designed discriminator function, the proposed estimator achieves a dual purpose: breaking the curse of the tradeoff to attain the tightest possible CI, and adapting the CI to ensure robustness against distributional shifts. Our method is applicable to time-dependent data without assuming any weak dependence conditions via leveraging a local supermartingale/martingale structure. Theoretically, we show that our algorithm is sample-efficient, error-robust, and provably convergent even in non-linear function approximation settings. The numerical performance of the proposed method is examined in synthetic datasets and an OhioT1DM mobile health study.

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arXiv2023

Policy Learning for Individualized Treatment Regimes on Infinite Time Horizon

With the recent advancements of technology in facilitating real-time monitoring and data collection, "just-in-time" interventions can be delivered via mobile devices to achieve both real-time and long-term management and control. Reinforcement learning formalizes such mobile interventions as a sequence of decision rules and assigns treatment arms based on the user's status at each decision point. In practice, real applications concern a large number of decision points beyond the time horizon of the currently collected data. This usually refers to reinforcement learning in the infinite horizon setting, which becomes much more challenging. This article provides a selective overview of some statistical methodologies on this topic. We discuss their modeling framework, generalizability, and interpretability and provide some use case examples. Some future research directions are discussed in the end.

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arXiv2023

Corrected kernel principal component analysis for model structural change detection

This paper develops a method to detect model structural changes by applying a Corrected Kernel Principal Component Analysis (CKPCA) to construct the so-called central distribution deviation subspaces. This approach can efficiently identify the mean and distribution changes in these dimension reduction subspaces. We derive that the locations and number changes in the dimension reduction data subspaces are identical to those in the original data spaces. Meanwhile, we also explain the necessity of using CKPCA as the classical KPCA fails to identify the central distribution deviation subspaces in these problems. Additionally, we extend this approach to clustering by embedding the original data with nonlinear lower dimensional spaces, providing enhanced capabilities for clustering analysis. The numerical studies on synthetic and real data sets suggest that the dimension reduction versions of existing methods for change point detection and clustering significantly improve the performances of existing approaches in finite sample scenarios.

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arXiv2023

Calibrate and Debias Layer-wise Sampling for Graph Convolutional Networks

Multiple sampling-based methods have been developed for approximating and accelerating node embedding aggregation in graph convolutional networks (GCNs) training. Among them, a layer-wise approach recursively performs importance sampling to select neighbors jointly for existing nodes in each layer. This paper revisits the approach from a matrix approximation perspective, and identifies two issues in the existing layer-wise sampling methods: suboptimal sampling probabilities and estimation biases induced by sampling without replacement. To address these issues, we accordingly propose two remedies: a new principle for constructing sampling probabilities and an efficient debiasing algorithm. The improvements are demonstrated by extensive analyses of estimation variance and experiments on common benchmarks. Code and algorithm implementations are publicly available at https://github.com/ychen-stat-ml/GCN-layer-wise-sampling .

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arXiv2023

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with right-censored data via causal survival forests

Forest-based methods have recently gained in popularity for non-parametric treatment effect estimation. Building on this line of work, we introduce causal survival forests, which can be used to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in a survival and observational setting where outcomes may be right-censored. Our approach relies on orthogonal estimating equations to robustly adjust for both censoring and selection effects under unconfoundedness. In our experiments, we find our approach to perform well relative to a number of baselines.

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arXiv2023

On Variance Estimation of Random Forests with Infinite-Order U-statistics

Infinite-order U-statistics (IOUS) has been used extensively on subbagging ensemble learning algorithms such as random forests to quantify its uncertainty. While normality results of IOUS have been studied extensively, its variance estimation approaches and theoretical properties remain mostly unexplored. Existing approaches mainly utilize the leading term dominance property in the Hoeffding decomposition. However, such a view usually leads to biased estimation when the kernel size is large or the sample size is small. On the other hand, while several unbiased estimators exist in the literature, their relationships and theoretical properties, especially the ratio consistency, have never been studied. These limitations lead to unguaranteed performances of constructed confidence intervals. To bridge these gaps in the literature, we propose a new view of the Hoeffding decomposition for variance estimation that leads to an unbiased estimator. Instead of leading term dominance, our view utilizes the dominance of the peak region. Moreover, we establish the connection and equivalence of our estimator with several existing unbiased variance estimators. Theoretically, we are the first to establish the ratio consistency of such a variance estimator, which justifies the coverage rate of confidence intervals constructed from random forests. Numerically, we further propose a local smoothing procedure to improve the estimator's finite sample performance. Extensive simulation studies show that our estimators enjoy lower bias and archive targeted coverage rates.

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arXiv2022

Estimating Optimal Infinite Horizon Dynamic Treatment Regimes via pT-Learning

Recent advances in mobile health (mHealth) technology provide an effective way to monitor individuals' health statuses and deliver just-in-time personalized interventions. However, the practical use of mHealth technology raises unique challenges to existing methodologies on learning an optimal dynamic treatment regime. Many mHealth applications involve decision-making with large numbers of intervention options and under an infinite time horizon setting where the number of decision stages diverges to infinity. In addition, temporary medication shortages may cause optimal treatments to be unavailable, while it is unclear what alternatives can be used. To address these challenges, we propose a Proximal Temporal consistency Learning (pT-Learning) framework to estimate an optimal regime that is adaptively adjusted between deterministic and stochastic sparse policy models. The resulting minimax estimator avoids the double sampling issue in the existing algorithms. It can be further simplified and can easily incorporate off-policy data without mismatched distribution corrections. We study theoretical properties of the sparse policy and establish finite-sample bounds on the excess risk and performance error. The proposed method is provided in our proximalDTR package and is evaluated through extensive simulation studies and the OhioT1DM mHealth dataset.

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arXiv2022

Confidence Band Estimation for Survival Random Forests

Survival random forest is a popular machine learning tool for modeling censored survival data. However, there is currently no statistically valid and computationally feasible approach for estimating its confidence band. This paper proposes an unbiased confidence band estimation by extending recent developments in infinite-order incomplete U-statistics. The idea is to estimate the variance-covariance matrix of the cumulative hazard function prediction on a grid of time points. We then generate the confidence band by viewing the cumulative hazard function estimation as a Gaussian process whose distribution can be approximated through simulation. This approach is computationally easy to implement when the subsampling size of a tree is no larger than half of the total training sample size. Numerical studies show that our proposed method accurately estimates the confidence band and achieves desired coverage rate. We apply this method to veterans' administration lung cancer data.

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arXiv2021

A Parsimonious Personalized Dose Finding Model via Dimension Reduction

Learning an individualized dose rule in personalized medicine is a challenging statistical problem. Existing methods often suffer from the curse of dimensionality, especially when the decision function is estimated nonparametrically. To tackle this problem, we propose a dimension reduction framework that effectively reduces the estimation to a lower-dimensional subspace of the covariates. We exploit that the individualized dose rule can be defined in a subspace spanned by a few linear combinations of the covariates, leading to a more parsimonious model. The proposed framework does not require the inverse probability of the propensity score under observational studies due to a direct maximization of the value function. This distinguishes us from the outcome weighted learning framework, which also solves decision rules directly. Under the same framework, we further propose a pseudo-direct learning approach that focuses more on estimating the dimensionality-reduced subspace of the treatment outcome. Parameters in both approaches can be estimated efficiently using an orthogonality constrained optimization algorithm on the Stiefel manifold. Under mild regularity assumptions, the results on the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established, respectively. We also derive the consistency and convergence rate for the value function under the estimated optimal dose rule. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approaches through extensive simulation studies and a warfarin pharmacogenetic dataset.

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arXiv2021

Dermoscopic Image Classification with Neural Style Transfer

Skin cancer, the most commonly found human malignancy, is primarily diagnosed visually via dermoscopic analysis, biopsy, and histopathological examination. However, unlike other types of cancer, automated image classification of skin lesions is deemed more challenging due to the irregularity and variability in the lesions' appearances. In this work, we propose an adaptation of the Neural Style Transfer (NST) as a novel image pre-processing step for skin lesion classification problems. We represent each dermoscopic image as the style image and transfer the style of the lesion onto a homogeneous content image. This transfers the main variability of each lesion onto the same localized region, which allows us to integrate the generated images together and extract latent, low-rank style features via tensor decomposition. We train and cross-validate our model on a dermoscopic data set collected and preprocessed from the International Skin Imaging Collaboration (ISIC) database. We show that the classification performance based on the extracted tensor features using the style-transferred images significantly outperforms that of the raw images by more than 10%, and is also competitive with well-studied, pre-trained CNN models through transfer learning. Additionally, the tensor decomposition further identifies latent style clusters, which may provide clinical interpretation and insights.

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