arXiv subjects

Ruoxuan Xiong

Publications and source records attributed to Ruoxuan Xiong.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Long-Context Demonstration Selection Using State Space Models

We study the problem of demonstration selection, which involves selecting a subset of examples for prepending to a query to a language model. This problem is closely related to in-context learning and language model inference. Since the inference cost of a transformer model scales quadratically with sequence length, the selection problem becomes especially challenging in a long-context scenario. In this paper, we tackle this problem by building on state space models (SSMs), which require only linear inference time given the input. Our approach involves two algorithms. The first learns a small set of SSMs through distillation of a (trained) transformer model. We partition all the layers into consecutive groups. Then for each group, we estimate a separate state space model to replicate the input-output behavior within the adjacent layers. Second, we map the distilled model outputs to a small set of tokens, and apply these embeddings for demonstration selection in downstream applications. We perform extensive experiments in both synthetic and real-world datasets to validate our approach. We demonstrate that the distilled SSMs only incur an approximation error of less than $0.7\%$ relative to the true output. In downstream evaluation, we show that on several text classification and reasoning tasks, our approach reduces FLOPs by $14.2\times$ and improves accuracy by $6.48\%$ relative to baseline demonstration selection methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Two-Sided State-Space Models for Sequential Recommendation with Non-Random Multimodal Review Feedback

Two-sided digital platforms are inherently dynamic: user preferences shift, item popularity evolves, and reviews both reflect and drive these changes. Yet most sequential recommendation systems treat reviews as passive signals for updating user states, leaving two aspects underexplored. First, review generation is nonrandom, depending on evolving latent states of both users and items. Second, reviews can reshape item states, induce spillover across related items, and influence future user decisions. To address these gaps, we propose a two-sided state-space model (TS-SSM) for event-conditioned sequential recommendation. TS-SSM consists of three components: (1) a modality-missing-not-at-random fusion module that encodes review content and informative observation patterns; (2) user-state evolution with temporal variation and local graph message passing that uses related item states to refine user preferences; and (3) item-state evolution with asymmetric carryover of positive and negative review feedback. In experiments across six Amazon categories, TS-SSM increases Recall@20 over BSARec by 14.8%--18.8% and exceeds HM4SR by 11.7% on average. On Goodreads Fantasy, Recall@20 improves HM4SR from .5191 to .5847. Ablations highlight distinct contributions of observation patterns, local propagation, and item dynamics.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2026

AI-Generated Measurements for Identification and Inference with Missing Data: A Weak Shadow Variable Approach

Across business and social science applications, outcomes are often missing in ways that depend on the unobserved outcomes themselves. In service systems, for example, whether a customer submits a rating depends on the rating they would have provided. Such missing-not-at-random (MNAR) mechanisms make population quantities difficult to identify without strong assumptions on the observation process. Meanwhile, rich unstructured data, such as customer interaction histories, are increasingly available and can be used to construct structured measurements using tools such as large language models (LLMs). In this work, we develop an assumption-lean partial identification framework that uses such measurements as weak shadow variables, defined as outcome-informative proxies that are conditionally independent of missingness given the true outcome and observed covariates. Importantly, they need not accurately predict missing outcomes or satisfy the completeness requirement in the classical shadow variable literature. For identification, we characterize sharp bounds on population quantities through a pair of linear programs. For estimation and inference, we propose a localized penalized estimator that remains feasible under sampling error, and a subsampling algorithm for constructing confidence intervals. In semi-synthetic experiments using real customer-service dialogues, weak-shadow-variable intervals are about 89\% narrower than those without auxiliary information, while their midpoints have around 41\% lower estimation error than classical MNAR methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Learning Dynamic Representations and Policies from Multimodal Clinical Time-Series with Informative Missingness

Multimodal clinical records contain structured measurements and clinical notes recorded over time, offering rich temporal information about the evolution of patient health. Yet these observations are sparse, and whether they are recorded depends on the patient's latent condition. Observation patterns also differ across modalities, as structured measurements and clinical notes arise under distinct recording processes. While prior work has developed methods that accommodate missingness in clinical time series, how to extract and use the information carried by the observation process itself remains underexplored. We therefore propose a patient representation learning framework for multimodal clinical time series that explicitly leverages informative missingness. The framework combines (1) a multimodal encoder that captures signals from structured and textual data together with their observation patterns, (2) a Bayesian filtering module that updates a latent patient state over time from observed multimodal signals, and (3) downstream modules for offline treatment policy learning and patient outcome prediction based on the learned patient state. We evaluate the framework on ICU sepsis cohorts from MIMIC-III, MIMIC-IV, and eICU. It improves both offline treatment policy learning and adverse outcome prediction, achieving FQE 0.679 versus 0.528 for clinician behavior and AUROC 0.886 for post-72-hour mortality prediction on MIMIC-III.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Can We Validate Counterfactual Estimations in the Presence of General Network Interference?

Randomized experiments have become a cornerstone of evidence-based decision-making in contexts ranging from online platforms to public health. However, in experimental settings with network interference, a unit's treatment can influence outcomes of other units, challenging both causal effect estimation and its validation. Classic validation approaches fail as outcomes are only observable under a single treatment scenario and exhibit complex correlation patterns due to interference. To address these challenges, we introduce a framework that facilitates the use of machine learning tools for both estimation and validation in causal inference. Central to our approach is the new distribution-preserving network bootstrap, a theoretically-grounded technique that generates multiple statistically-valid subpopulations from a single experiment's data. This amplification of experimental samples enables our second contribution: a counterfactual cross-validation procedure. This procedure adapts the principles of model validation to the unique constraints of causal settings, providing a rigorous, data-driven method for selecting and evaluating estimators. We extend recent causal message-passing developments by incorporating heterogeneous unit-level characteristics and varying local interactions, ensuring reliable finite-sample performance through non-asymptotic analysis. Additionally, we develop and publicly release a comprehensive benchmark toolbox featuring diverse experimental environments, from networks of interacting AI agents to ride-sharing applications. These environments provide known ground truth values while maintaining realistic complexities, enabling systematic evaluation of causal inference methods. Extensive testing across these environments demonstrates our method's robustness to diverse forms of network interference.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Causal Representation Learning from Multimodal Clinical Records under Non-Random Modality Missingness

Clinical notes contain rich patient information, such as diagnoses or medications, making them valuable for patient representation learning. Recent advances in large language models have further improved the ability to extract meaningful representations from clinical texts. However, clinical notes are often missing. For example, in our analysis of the MIMIC-IV dataset, 24.5% of patients have no available discharge summaries. In such cases, representations can be learned from other modalities such as structured data, chest X-rays, or radiology reports. Yet the availability of these modalities is influenced by clinical decision-making and varies across patients, resulting in modality missing-not-at-random (MMNAR) patterns. We propose a causal representation learning framework that leverages observed data and informative missingness in multimodal clinical records. It consists of: (1) an MMNAR-aware modality fusion component that integrates structured data, imaging, and text while conditioning on missingness patterns to capture patient health and clinician-driven assignment; (2) a modality reconstruction component with contrastive learning to ensure semantic sufficiency in representation learning; and (3) a multitask outcome prediction model with a rectifier that corrects for residual bias from specific modality observation patterns. Comprehensive evaluations across MIMIC-IV and eICU show consistent gains over the strongest baselines, achieving up to 13.8% AUC improvement for hospital readmission and 13.1% for ICU admission.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Sequential Treatment Effect Estimation with Unmeasured Confounders

This paper studies the cumulative causal effects of sequential treatments in the presence of unmeasured confounders. It is a critical issue in sequential decision-making scenarios where treatment decisions and outcomes dynamically evolve over time. Advanced causal methods apply transformer as a backbone to model such time sequences, which shows superiority in capturing long time dependence and periodic patterns via attention mechanism. However, even they control the observed confounding, these estimators still suffer from unmeasured confounders, which influence both treatment assignments and outcomes. How to adjust the latent confounding bias in sequential treatment effect estimation remains an open challenge. Therefore, we propose a novel Decomposing Sequential Instrumental Variable framework for CounterFactual Regression (DSIV-CFR), relying on a common negative control assumption. Specifically, an instrumental variable (IV) is a special negative control exposure, while the previous outcome serves as a negative control outcome. This allows us to recover the IVs latent in observation variables and estimate sequential treatment effects via a generalized moment condition. We conducted experiments on 4 datasets and achieved significant performance in one- and multi-step prediction, supported by which we can identify optimal treatments for dynamic systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Higher-Order Causal Message Passing for Experimentation with Complex Interference

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit can influence outcomes for others through direct or indirect interactions. Such interference can lead to biased treatment effect estimates, particularly when the structure of these interactions is unknown. We address this challenge by introducing a new class of estimators based on causal message-passing, specifically designed for settings with pervasive, unknown interference. Our estimator draws on information from the sample mean and variance of unit outcomes and treatments over time, enabling efficient use of observed data to estimate the evolution of the system state. Concretely, we construct non-linear features from the moments of unit outcomes and treatments and then learn a function that maps these features to future mean and variance of unit outcomes. This allows for the estimation of the treatment effect over time. Extensive simulations across multiple domains, using synthetic and real network data, demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in estimating total treatment effect dynamics, even in cases where interference exhibits non-monotonic behavior in the probability of treatment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Generalized Encouragement-Based Instrumental Variables for Counterfactual Regression

In causal inference, encouragement designs (EDs) are widely used to analyze causal effects, when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are impractical or compliance to treatment cannot be perfectly enforced. Unlike RCTs, which directly allocate treatments, EDs randomly assign encouragement policies that positively motivate individuals to engage in a specific treatment. These random encouragements act as instrumental variables (IVs), facilitating the identification of causal effects through leveraging exogenous perturbations in discrete treatment scenarios. However, real-world applications of encouragement designs often face challenges such as incomplete randomization, limited experimental data, and significantly fewer encouragements compared to treatments, hindering precise causal effect estimation. To address this, this paper introduces novel theories and algorithms for identifying the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) using variations in encouragement. Further, by leveraging both observational and encouragement data, we propose a generalized IV estimator, named Encouragement-based Counterfactual Regression (EnCounteR), to effectively estimate the causal effects. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of EnCounteR over existing methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Causal Inference with Complex Treatments: A Survey

Causal inference plays an important role in explanatory analysis and decision making across various fields like statistics, marketing, health care, and education. Its main task is to estimate treatment effects and make intervention policies. Traditionally, most of the previous works typically focus on the binary treatment setting that there is only one treatment for a unit to adopt or not. However, in practice, the treatment can be much more complex, encompassing multi-valued, continuous, or bundle options. In this paper, we refer to these as complex treatments and systematically and comprehensively review the causal inference methods for addressing them. First, we formally revisit the problem definition, the basic assumptions, and their possible variations under specific conditions. Second, we sequentially review the related methods for multi-valued, continuous, and bundled treatment settings. In each situation, we tentatively divide the methods into two categories: those conforming to the unconfoundedness assumption and those violating it. Subsequently, we discuss the available datasets and open-source codes. Finally, we provide a brief summary of these works and suggest potential directions for future research.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Semiparametric Estimation of Treatment Effects in Observational Studies with Heterogeneous Partial Interference

In many observational studies in social science and medicine, subjects or units are connected, and one unit's treatment and attributes may affect another's treatment and outcome, violating the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA) and resulting in interference. To enable feasible estimation and inference, many previous works assume exchangeability of interfering units (neighbors). However, in many applications with distinctive units, interference is heterogeneous and needs to be modeled explicitly. In this paper, we focus on the partial interference setting, and only restrict units to be exchangeable conditional on observable characteristics. Under this framework, we propose generalized augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimators for general causal estimands that include heterogeneous direct and spillover effects. We show that they are semiparametric efficient and robust to heterogeneous interference as well as model misspecifications. We apply our methods to the Add Health dataset to study the direct effects of alcohol consumption on academic performance and the spillover effects of parental incarceration on adolescent well-being.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Data-Driven Switchback Experiments: Theoretical Tradeoffs and Empirical Bayes Designs

We study the design and analysis of switchback experiments conducted on a single aggregate unit. The design problem is to partition the continuous time space into intervals and switch treatments between intervals, in order to minimize the estimation error of the treatment effect. We show that the estimation error depends on four factors: carryover effects, periodicity, serially correlated outcomes, and impacts from simultaneous experiments. We derive a rigorous bias-variance decomposition and show the tradeoffs of the estimation error from these factors. The decomposition provides three new insights in choosing a design: First, balancing the periodicity between treated and control intervals reduces the variance; second, switching less frequently reduces the bias from carryover effects while increasing the variance from correlated outcomes, and vice versa; third, randomizing interval start and end points reduces both bias and variance from simultaneous experiments. Combining these insights, we propose a new empirical Bayes design approach. This approach uses prior data and experiments for designing future experiments. We illustrate this approach using real data from a ride-sharing platform, yielding a design that reduces MSE by 33% compared to the status quo design used on the platform.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Contrastive Balancing Representation Learning for Heterogeneous Dose-Response Curves Estimation

Estimating the individuals' potential response to varying treatment doses is crucial for decision-making in areas such as precision medicine and management science. Most recent studies predict counterfactual outcomes by learning a covariate representation that is independent of the treatment variable. However, such independence constraints neglect much of the covariate information that is useful for counterfactual prediction, especially when the treatment variables are continuous. To tackle the above issue, in this paper, we first theoretically demonstrate the importance of the balancing and prognostic representations for unbiased estimation of the heterogeneous dose-response curves, that is, the learned representations are constrained to satisfy the conditional independence between the covariates and both of the treatment variables and the potential responses. Based on this, we propose a novel Contrastive balancing Representation learning Network using a partial distance measure, called CRNet, for estimating the heterogeneous dose-response curves without losing the continuity of treatments. Extensive experiments are conducted on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrating that our proposal significantly outperforms previous methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Pareto-Optimal Estimation and Policy Learning on Short-term and Long-term Treatment Effects

This paper focuses on developing Pareto-optimal estimation and policy learning to identify the most effective treatment that maximizes the total reward from both short-term and long-term effects, which might conflict with each other. For example, a higher dosage of medication might increase the speed of a patient's recovery (short-term) but could also result in severe long-term side effects. Although recent works have investigated the problems about short-term or long-term effects or the both, how to trade-off between them to achieve optimal treatment remains an open challenge. Moreover, when multiple objectives are directly estimated using conventional causal representation learning, the optimization directions among various tasks can conflict as well. In this paper, we systematically investigate these issues and introduce a Pareto-Efficient algorithm, comprising Pareto-Optimal Estimation (POE) and Pareto-Optimal Policy Learning (POPL), to tackle them. POE incorporates a continuous Pareto module with representation balancing, enhancing estimation efficiency across multiple tasks. As for POPL, it involves deriving short-term and long-term outcomes linked with various treatment levels, facilitating an exploration of the Pareto frontier emanating from these outcomes. Results on both the synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Learning Individual Treatment Effects under Heterogeneous Interference in Networks

Estimates of individual treatment effects from networked observational data are attracting increasing attention these days. One major challenge in network scenarios is the violation of the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA), which assumes that the treatment assignment of a unit does not influence others' outcomes. In network data, due to interference, the outcome of a unit is influenced not only by its treatment (i.e., direct effects) but also by others' treatments (i.e., spillover effects). Furthermore, the influences from other units are always heterogeneous (e.g., friends with similar interests affect a person differently than friends with different interests). In this paper, we focus on the problem of estimating individual treatment effects (both direct and spillover effects) under heterogeneous interference. To address this issue, we propose a novel Dual Weighting Regression (DWR) algorithm by simultaneously learning attention weights that capture the heterogeneous interference and sample weights to eliminate the complex confounding bias in networks. We formulate the entire learning process as a bi-level optimization problem. In theory, we present generalization error bounds for individual treatment effect estimation. Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed DWR algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art methods for estimating individual treatment effects under heterogeneous interference.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Optimal Experimental Design for Staggered Rollouts

In this paper, we study the design and analysis of experiments conducted on a set of units over multiple time periods where the starting time of the treatment may vary by unit. The design problem involves selecting an initial treatment time for each unit in order to most precisely estimate both the instantaneous and cumulative effects of the treatment. We first consider non-adaptive experiments, where all treatment assignment decisions are made prior to the start of the experiment. For this case, we show that the optimization problem is generally NP-hard, and we propose a near-optimal solution. Under this solution, the fraction entering treatment each period is initially low, then high, and finally low again. Next, we study an adaptive experimental design problem, where both the decision to continue the experiment and treatment assignment decisions are updated after each period's data is collected. For the adaptive case, we propose a new algorithm, the Precision-Guided Adaptive Experiment (PGAE) algorithm, that addresses the challenges at both the design stage and at the stage of estimating treatment effects, ensuring valid post-experiment inference accounting for the adaptive nature of the design. Using realistic settings, we demonstrate that our proposed solutions can reduce the opportunity cost of the experiments by over 50%, compared to static design benchmarks.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Target PCA: Transfer Learning Large Dimensional Panel Data

This paper develops a novel method to estimate a latent factor model for a large target panel with missing observations by optimally using the information from auxiliary panel data sets. We refer to our estimator as target-PCA. Transfer learning from auxiliary panel data allows us to deal with a large fraction of missing observations and weak signals in the target panel. We show that our estimator is more efficient and can consistently estimate weak factors, which are not identifiable with conventional methods. We provide the asymptotic inferential theory for target-PCA under very general assumptions on the approximate factor model and missing patterns. In an empirical study of imputing data in a mixed-frequency macroeconomic panel, we demonstrate that target-PCA significantly outperforms all benchmark methods.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Instrumental Variable-Driven Domain Generalization with Unobserved Confounders

Domain generalization (DG) aims to learn from multiple source domains a model that can generalize well on unseen target domains. Existing DG methods mainly learn the representations with invariant marginal distribution of the input features, however, the invariance of the conditional distribution of the labels given the input features is more essential for unknown domain prediction. Meanwhile, the existing of unobserved confounders which affect the input features and labels simultaneously cause spurious correlation and hinder the learning of the invariant relationship contained in the conditional distribution. Interestingly, with a causal view on the data generating process, we find that the input features of one domain are valid instrumental variables for other domains. Inspired by this finding, we propose an instrumental variable-driven DG method (IV-DG) by removing the bias of the unobserved confounders with two-stage learning. In the first stage, it learns the conditional distribution of the input features of one domain given input features of another domain. In the second stage, it estimates the relationship by predicting labels with the learned conditional distribution. Theoretical analyses and simulation experiments show that it accurately captures the invariant relationship. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that IV-DG method yields state-of-the-art results.

cs.LG↗