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Ryan Fetterman

Publications and source records attributed to Ryan Fetterman.

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Inherited Circuits, Learned Semantics: How Fine-Tuning Creates Evasion Vulnerabilities Invisible to Standard Evaluation

LLMs fine-tuned for security classification are usually evaluated on held-out examples from the same distribution as their training data. We show that this can miss vulnerabilities introduced by fine-tuning itself: models can learn token-level indicator semantics that preserve canonical accuracy while failing under behavior-preserving transformations such as PowerShell alias substitution, command reconstruction, string construction, execution indirection, and case mutation. We study Foundation-Sec-8B-Instruct and its base model, Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, on matched PowerShell classification cohorts. Causal interventions localize the classification circuit to a late-attention route inherited from Llama rather than created by fine-tuning. Fine-tuning concentrates and semantically specializes this inherited structure, improving baseline behavior while creating transformation-sensitive attack surfaces. A three-tier evasion benchmark finds Foundation-Sec misses on iwr substitution, Invoke-Expression reconstruction, and case-mutated Invoke-Expression/IEX variants that Llama does not share. We also derive a pre-deployment monitoring method: a linear probe at the classification boundary and an indicator-token sign test identify command families where canonical indicators change role after fine-tuning. These signals prioritize red-team variant generation using only canonical inputs, showing that security fine-tuning can improve task accuracy while expanding the evasion surface. These results caution against treating small task-specific fine-tunes as straightforwardly safer security classifiers: specialization can convert inherited model structure into brittle indicator rules that preserve held-out accuracy while expanding the evasion surface. Robust AI-enabled security will require specifying the full transformation space of the task and monitoring semantic drift through fine-tuning.

cs.CR

Toward Quantitative Modeling of Cybersecurity Risks Due to AI Misuse

Advanced AI systems offer substantial benefits but also introduce risks. In 2025, AI-enabled cyber offense has emerged as a concrete example. This technical report applies a quantitative risk modeling methodology (described in full in a companion paper) to this domain. We develop nine detailed cyber risk models that allow analyzing AI uplift as a function of AI benchmark performance. Each model decomposes attacks into steps using the MITRE ATT&CK framework and estimates how AI affects the number of attackers, attack frequency, probability of success, and resulting harm to determine different types of uplift. To produce these estimates with associated uncertainty, we employ both human experts, via a Delphi study, as well as LLM-based simulated experts, both mapping benchmark scores (from Cybench and BountyBench) to risk model factors. Individual estimates are aggregated through Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate systematic uplift in attack efficacy, speed, and target reach, with different mechanisms of uplift across risk models. We aim for our quantitative risk modeling to fulfill several aims: to help cybersecurity teams prioritize mitigations, AI evaluators design benchmarks, AI developers make more informed deployment decisions, and policymakers obtain information to set risk thresholds. Similar goals drove the shift from qualitative to quantitative assessment over time in other high-risk industries, such as nuclear power. We propose this methodology and initial application attempt as a step in that direction for AI risk management. While our estimates carry significant uncertainty, publishing detailed quantified results can enable experts to pinpoint exactly where they disagree. This helps to collectively refine estimates, something that cannot be done with qualitative assessments alone.

cs.CY