arXiv subjects

Ryan Rogers

Publications and source records attributed to Ryan Rogers.

31 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Lower Bounds for Locally Private Estimation via Communication Complexity

We develop lower bounds for estimation under local privacy constraints---including differential privacy and its relaxations to approximate or Rényi differential privacy---by showing an equivalence between private estimation and communication-restricted estimation problems. Our results apply to arbitrarily interactive privacy mechanisms, and they also give sharp lower bounds for all levels of differential privacy protections, that is, privacy mechanisms with privacy levels $\varepsilon \in [0, \infty)$. As a particular consequence of our results, we show that the minimax mean-squared error for estimating the mean of a bounded or Gaussian random vector in $d$ dimensions scales as $\frac{d}{n} \cdot \frac{d}{ \min\{\varepsilon, \varepsilon^2\}}$.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Locally Private Mean Estimation: Z-test and Tight Confidence Intervals

This work provides tight upper- and lower-bounds for the problem of mean estimation under $ε$-differential privacy in the local model, when the input is composed of $n$ i.i.d. drawn samples from a normal distribution with variance $σ$. Our algorithms result in a $(1-β)$-confidence interval for the underlying distribution's mean $μ$ of length $\tilde O\left( \frac{σ\sqrt{\log(\frac 1 β)}}{ε\sqrt n} \right)$. In addition, our algorithms leverage binary search using local differential privacy for quantile estimation, a result which may be of separate interest. Moreover, we prove a matching lower-bound (up to poly-log factors), showing that any one-shot (each individual is presented with a single query) local differentially private algorithm must return an interval of length $Ω\left( \frac{σ\sqrt{\log(1/β)}}{ε\sqrt{n}}\right)$.

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arXiv2018

Local Private Hypothesis Testing: Chi-Square Tests

The local model for differential privacy is emerging as the reference model for practical applications collecting and sharing sensitive information while satisfying strong privacy guarantees. In the local model, there is no trusted entity which is allowed to have each individual's raw data as is assumed in the traditional curator model for differential privacy. So, individuals' data are usually perturbed before sharing them. We explore the design of private hypothesis tests in the local model, where each data entry is perturbed to ensure the privacy of each participant. Specifically, we analyze locally private chi-square tests for goodness of fit and independence testing, which have been studied in the traditional, curator model for differential privacy.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

A Decomposition of Forecast Error in Prediction Markets

We analyze sources of error in prediction market forecasts in order to bound the difference between a security's price and the ground truth it estimates. We consider cost-function-based prediction markets in which an automated market maker adjusts security prices according to the history of trade. We decompose the forecasting error into three components: sampling error, arising because traders only possess noisy estimates of ground truth; market-maker bias, resulting from the use of a particular market maker (i.e., cost function) to facilitate trade; and convergence error, arising because, at any point in time, market prices may still be in flux. Our goal is to make explicit the tradeoffs between these error components, influenced by design decisions such as the functional form of the cost function and the amount of liquidity in the market. We consider a specific model in which traders have exponential utility and exponential-family beliefs representing noisy estimates of ground truth. In this setting, sampling error vanishes as the number of traders grows, but there is a tradeoff between the other two components. We provide both upper and lower bounds on market-maker bias and convergence error, and demonstrate via numerical simulations that these bounds are tight. Our results yield new insights into the question of how to set the market's liquidity parameter and into the forecasting benefits of enforcing coherent prices across securities.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2016

Learning from Rational Behavior: Predicting Solutions to Unknown Linear Programs

We define and study the problem of predicting the solution to a linear program (LP) given only partial information about its objective and constraints. This generalizes the problem of learning to predict the purchasing behavior of a rational agent who has an unknown objective function, that has been studied under the name "Learning from Revealed Preferences". We give mistake bound learning algorithms in two settings: in the first, the objective of the LP is known to the learner but there is an arbitrary, fixed set of constraints which are unknown. Each example is defined by an additional known constraint and the goal of the learner is to predict the optimal solution of the LP given the union of the known and unknown constraints. This models the problem of predicting the behavior of a rational agent whose goals are known, but whose resources are unknown. In the second setting, the objective of the LP is unknown, and changing in a controlled way. The constraints of the LP may also change every day, but are known. An example is given by a set of constraints and partial information about the objective, and the task of the learner is again to predict the optimal solution of the partially known LP.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2016

A New Class of Private Chi-Square Tests

In this paper, we develop new test statistics for private hypothesis testing. These statistics are designed specifically so that their asymptotic distributions, after accounting for noise added for privacy concerns, match the asymptotics of the classical (non-private) chi-square tests for testing if the multinomial data parameters lie in lower dimensional manifolds (examples include goodness of fit and independence testing). Empirically, these new test statistics outperform prior work, which focused on noisy versions of existing statistics.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Max-Information, Differential Privacy, and Post-Selection Hypothesis Testing

In this paper, we initiate a principled study of how the generalization properties of approximate differential privacy can be used to perform adaptive hypothesis testing, while giving statistically valid $p$-value corrections. We do this by observing that the guarantees of algorithms with bounded approximate max-information are sufficient to correct the $p$-values of adaptively chosen hypotheses, and then by proving that algorithms that satisfy $(ε,δ)$-differential privacy have bounded approximate max information when their inputs are drawn from a product distribution. This substantially extends the known connection between differential privacy and max-information, which previously was only known to hold for (pure) $(ε,0)$-differential privacy. It also extends our understanding of max-information as a partially unifying measure controlling the generalization properties of adaptive data analyses. We also show a lower bound, proving that (despite the strong composition properties of max-information), when data is drawn from a product distribution, $(ε,δ)$-differentially private algorithms can come first in a composition with other algorithms satisfying max-information bounds, but not necessarily second if the composition is required to itself satisfy a nontrivial max-information bound. This, in particular, implies that the connection between $(ε,δ)$-differential privacy and max-information holds only for inputs drawn from product distributions, unlike the connection between $(ε,0)$-differential privacy and max-information.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Do Prices Coordinate Markets?

Walrasian equilibrium prices can be said to coordinate markets: They support a welfare optimal allocation in which each buyer is buying bundle of goods that is individually most preferred. However, this clean story has two caveats. First, the prices alone are not sufficient to coordinate the market, and buyers may need to select among their most preferred bundles in a coordinated way to find a feasible allocation. Second, we don't in practice expect to encounter exact equilibrium prices tailored to the market, but instead only approximate prices, somehow encoding "distributional" information about the market. How well do prices work to coordinate markets when tie-breaking is not coordinated, and they encode only distributional information? We answer this question. First, we provide a genericity condition such that for buyers with Matroid Based Valuations, overdemand with respect to equilibrium prices is at most 1, independent of the supply of goods, even when tie-breaking is done in an uncoordinated fashion. Second, we provide learning-theoretic results that show that such prices are robust to changing the buyers in the market, so long as all buyers are sampled from the same (unknown) distribution.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2016

Differentially Private Chi-Squared Hypothesis Testing: Goodness of Fit and Independence Testing

Hypothesis testing is a useful statistical tool in determining whether a given model should be rejected based on a sample from the population. Sample data may contain sensitive information about individuals, such as medical information. Thus it is important to design statistical tests that guarantee the privacy of subjects in the data. In this work, we study hypothesis testing subject to differential privacy, specifically chi-squared tests for goodness of fit for multinomial data and independence between two categorical variables. We propose new tests for goodness of fit and independence testing that like the classical versions can be used to determine whether a given model should be rejected or not, and that additionally can ensure differential privacy. We give both Monte Carlo based hypothesis tests as well as hypothesis tests that more closely follow the classical chi-squared goodness of fit test and the Pearson chi-squared test for independence. Crucially, our tests account for the distribution of the noise that is injected to ensure privacy in determining significance. We show that these tests can be used to achieve desired significance levels, in sharp contrast to direct applications of classical tests to differentially private contingency tables which can result in wildly varying significance levels. Moreover, we study the statistical power of these tests. We empirically show that to achieve the same level of power as the classical non-private tests our new tests need only a relatively modest increase in sample size.

math.ST↗

arXiv2015

Robust Mediators in Large Games

A mediator is a mechanism that can only suggest actions to players, as a function of all agents' reported types, in a given game of incomplete information. We study what is achievable by two kinds of mediators, "strong" and "weak." Players can choose to opt-out of using a strong mediator but cannot misrepresent their type if they opt-in. Such a mediator is "strong" because we can view it as having the ability to verify player types. Weak mediators lack this ability--- players are free to misrepresent their type to a weak mediator. We show a striking result---in a prior-free setting, assuming only that the game is large and players have private types, strong mediators can implement approximate equilibria of the complete-information game. If the game is a congestion game, then the same result holds using only weak mediators. Our result follows from a novel application of differential privacy, in particular, a variant we propose called joint differential privacy.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2015

Asymptotically Truthful Equilibrium Selection in Large Congestion Games

Studying games in the complete information model makes them analytically tractable. However, large $n$ player interactions are more realistically modeled as games of incomplete information, where players may know little to nothing about the types of other players. Unfortunately, games in incomplete information settings lose many of the nice properties of complete information games: the quality of equilibria can become worse, the equilibria lose their ex-post properties, and coordinating on an equilibrium becomes even more difficult. Because of these problems, we would like to study games of incomplete information, but still implement equilibria of the complete information game induced by the (unknown) realized player types. This problem was recently studied by Kearns et al. and solved in large games by means of introducing a weak mediator: their mediator took as input reported types of players, and output suggested actions which formed a correlated equilibrium of the underlying game. Players had the option to play independently of the mediator, or ignore its suggestions, but crucially, if they decided to opt-in to the mediator, they did not have the power to lie about their type. In this paper, we rectify this deficiency in the setting of large congestion games. We give, in a sense, the weakest possible mediator: it cannot enforce participation, verify types, or enforce its suggestions. Moreover, our mediator implements a Nash equilibrium of the complete information game. We show that it is an (asymptotic) ex-post equilibrium of the incomplete information game for all players to use the mediator honestly, and that when they do so, they end up playing an approximate Nash equilibrium of the induced complete information game. In particular, truthful use of the mediator is a Bayes-Nash equilibrium in any Bayesian game for any prior.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2015

Inducing Approximately Optimal Flow Using Truthful Mediators

We revisit a classic coordination problem from the perspective of mechanism design: how can we coordinate a social welfare maximizing flow in a network congestion game with selfish players? The classical approach, which computes tolls as a function of known demands, fails when the demands are unknown to the mechanism designer, and naively eliciting them does not necessarily yield a truthful mechanism. Instead, we introduce a weak mediator that can provide suggested routes to players and set tolls as a function of reported demands. However, players can choose to ignore or misreport their type to this mediator. Using techniques from differential privacy, we show how to design a weak mediator such that it is an asymptotic ex-post Nash equilibrium for all players to truthfully report their types to the mediator and faithfully follow its suggestion, and that when they do, they end up playing a nearly optimal flow. Notably, our solution works in settings of incomplete information even in the absence of a prior distribution on player types. Along the way, we develop new techniques for privately solving convex programs which may be of independent interest.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2015

Private Pareto Optimal Exchange

We consider the problem of implementing an individually rational, asymptotically Pareto optimal allocation in a barter-exchange economy where agents are endowed with goods and have preferences over the goods of others, but may not use money as a medium of exchange. Because one of the most important instantiations of such economies is kidney exchange -- where the "input"to the problem consists of sensitive patient medical records -- we ask to what extent such exchanges can be carried out while providing formal privacy guarantees to the participants. We show that individually rational allocations cannot achieve any non-trivial approximation to Pareto optimality if carried out under the constraint of differential privacy -- or even the relaxation of \emph{joint} differential privacy, under which it is known that asymptotically optimal allocations can be computed in two-sided markets, where there is a distinction between buyers and sellers and we are concerned only with privacy of the buyers~\citep{Matching}. We therefore consider a further relaxation that we call \emph{marginal} differential privacy -- which promises, informally, that the privacy of every agent $i$ is protected from every other agent $j \neq i$ so long as $j$ does not collude or share allocation information with other agents. We show that, under marginal differential privacy, it is possible to compute an individually rational and asymptotically Pareto optimal allocation in such exchange economies.

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