arXiv subjects

Ryota Ozaki

Publications and source records attributed to Ryota Ozaki.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Rethinking Synthetic Scenario Realism: Compatibility, Not Fidelity, Drives Hedging Performance

Deep hedging is a data-driven approach to learn hedging strategies. It relies on synthetic price paths generator, as real market data is often limited for training. Existing approaches primarily evaluate such generators based on realism, i.e., how well they capture statistical properties of real markets, but the relationship between realism and hedging performance remains unclear. In this work, we introduce a decision-centric perspective on synthetic data for deep hedging based on the notion of compatibility. Compatibility measures the extent to which strategies trained on synthetic scenarios remain effective in the true market. We theoretically show that 1) hedging performance decomposes into learning error and a compatibility gap, and 2) realism and compatibility can diverge. Empirically, we find that hedging performance is governed not by realism alone, but by the alignment between the generator and the hedger, together with task structure. Taken together, this work provides a principled basis for designing synthetic data in finance aligned with decision tasks.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2026

Uncovering Residual Factors in Financial Time Series via PCA and MTP2-constrained Gaussian Graphical Models

Financial time series are commonly decomposed into market factors, which capture shared price movements across assets, and residual factors, which reflect asset-specific deviations. To hedge the market-wide risks, such as the COVID-19 shock, trading strategies that exploit residual factors have been shown to be effective. However, financial time series often exhibit near-singular eigenstructures, which hinder the stable and accurate estimation of residual factors. This paper proposes a method for extracting residual factors from financial time series that hierarchically applies principal component analysis (PCA) and Gaussian graphical model (GGM). Our hierarchical approach balances stable estimation with elimination of factors that PCA alone cannot fully remove, enabling efficient extraction of residual factors. We use multivariate totally positive of order 2 (MTP2)-constrained GGM to capture the predominance of positive correlations in financial data. Our analysis proves that the resulting residual factors exhibit stronger orthogonality than those obtained with PCA alone. Across multiple experiments with varying test periods and training set lengths, the proposed method consistently achieved superior orthogonality of the residual factors. Backtests on the S&P 500 and TOPIX 500 constituents further indicate improved trading performance, including higher Sharpe ratios.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

Machine Learning-Based Self-Localization Using Internal Sensors for Automating Bulldozers

Self-localization is an important technology for automating bulldozers. Conventional bulldozer self-localization systems rely on RTK-GNSS (Real Time Kinematic-Global Navigation Satellite Systems). However, RTK-GNSS signals are sometimes lost in certain mining conditions. Therefore, self-localization methods that do not depend on RTK-GNSS are required. In this paper, we propose a machine learning-based self-localization method for bulldozers. The proposed method consists of two steps: estimating local velocities using a machine learning model from internal sensors, and incorporating these estimates into an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) for global localization. We also created a novel dataset for bulldozer odometry and conducted experiments across various driving scenarios, including slalom, excavation, and driving on slopes. The result demonstrated that the proposed self-localization method suppressed the accumulation of position errors compared to kinematics-based methods, especially when slip occurred. Furthermore, this study showed that bulldozer-specific sensors, such as blade position sensors and hydraulic pressure sensors, contributed to improving self-localization accuracy.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Bayesian Optimization for Simultaneous Selection of Machine Learning Algorithms and Hyperparameters on Shared Latent Space

Selecting the optimal combination of a machine learning (ML) algorithm and its hyper-parameters is crucial for the development of high-performance ML systems. However, since the combination of ML algorithms and hyper-parameters is enormous, the exhaustive validation requires a significant amount of time. Many existing studies use Bayesian optimization (BO) for accelerating the search. On the other hand, a significant difficulty is that, in general, there exists a different hyper-parameter space for each one of candidate ML algorithms. BO-based approaches typically build a surrogate model independently for each hyper-parameter space, by which sufficient observations are required for all candidate ML algorithms. In this study, our proposed method embeds different hyper-parameter spaces into a shared latent space, in which a surrogate multi-task model for BO is estimated. This approach can share information of observations from different ML algorithms by which efficient optimization is expected with a smaller number of total observations. We further propose the pre-training of the latent space embedding with an adversarial regularization, and a ranking model for selecting an effective pre-trained embedding for a given target dataset. Our empirical study demonstrates effectiveness of the proposed method through datasets from OpenML.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization with Active Preference Learning

There are a lot of real-world black-box optimization problems that need to optimize multiple criteria simultaneously. However, in a multi-objective optimization (MOO) problem, identifying the whole Pareto front requires the prohibitive search cost, while in many practical scenarios, the decision maker (DM) only needs a specific solution among the set of the Pareto optimal solutions. We propose a Bayesian optimization (BO) approach to identifying the most preferred solution in the MOO with expensive objective functions, in which a Bayesian preference model of the DM is adaptively estimated by an interactive manner based on the two types of supervisions called the pairwise preference and improvement request. To explore the most preferred solution, we define an acquisition function in which the uncertainty both in the objective functions and the DM preference is incorporated. Further, to minimize the interaction cost with the DM, we also propose an active learning strategy for the preference estimation. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method through the benchmark function optimization and the hyper-parameter optimization problems for machine learning models.

cs.LG↗