arXiv subjects

Søren Wengel Mogensen

Publications and source records attributed to Søren Wengel Mogensen.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Exact Graph Learning via Integer Programming

Learning the dependence structure among variables in complex systems is a central problem across medical, natural, and social sciences. These structures can be naturally represented by graphs, and the task of inferring such graphs from data is known as graph learning or causal discovery. Existing approaches typically rely on restrictive assumptions about the data-generating process, employ greedy oracle algorithms, or solve approximate formulations of the graph learning problem. Therefore, they are either sensitive to violations of central assumptions or fail to guarantee globally optimal solutions. We address these limitations by introducing a nonparametric graph learning framework based on conditional independence testing and integer programming. We reformulate the graph learning problem as a mixed-integer program and prove that solving this integer-programming problem provides a globally optimal solution to the original graph learning problem. Our method leverages efficient encodings of graphical separation criteria, enabling the exact recovery of larger graphs than was previously feasible. We provide an open-source R package 'glip' which supports learning (acyclic) directed (mixed) graphs and chain graphs. We demonstrate that our approach is often faster than existing exact graph learning procedures and achieves state-of-the-art performance on simulated and benchmark data across all aforementioned classes of graphs.

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arXiv2025

An Asymmetric Independence Model for Causal Discovery on Path Spaces

We develop the theory linking 'E-separation' in directed mixed graphs (DMGs) with conditional independence relations among coordinate processes in stochastic differential equations (SDEs), where causal relationships are determined by "which variables enter the governing equation of which other variables". We prove a global Markov property for cyclic SDEs, which naturally extends to partially observed cyclic SDEs, because our asymmetric independence model is closed under marginalization. We then characterize the class of graphs that encode the same set of independence relations, yielding a result analogous to the seminal 'same skeleton and v-structures' result for directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the fully observed case, we show that each such equivalence class of graphs has a greatest element as a parsimonious representation and develop algorithms to identify this greatest element from data. We conjecture that a greatest element also exists under partial observations, which we verify computationally for graphs with up to four nodes.

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arXiv2025

Signature Kernel Conditional Independence Tests in Causal Discovery for Stochastic Processes

Inferring the causal structure underlying stochastic dynamical systems from observational data holds great promise in domains ranging from science and health to finance. Such processes can often be accurately modeled via stochastic differential equations (SDEs), which naturally imply causal relationships via "which variables enter the differential of which other variables". In this paper, we develop conditional independence (CI) constraints on coordinate processes over selected intervals that are Markov with respect to the acyclic dependence graph (allowing self-loops) induced by a general SDE model. We then provide a sound and complete causal discovery algorithm, capable of handling both fully and partially observed data, and uniquely recovering the underlying or induced ancestral graph by exploiting time directionality assuming a CI oracle. Finally, to make our algorithm practically usable, we also propose a flexible, consistent signature kernel-based CI test to infer these constraints from data. We extensively benchmark the CI test in isolation and as part of our causal discovery algorithms, outperforming existing approaches in SDE models and beyond.

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arXiv2023

Causal discovery in a complex industrial system: A time series benchmark

Causal discovery outputs a causal structure, represented by a graph, from observed data. For time series data, there is a variety of methods, however, it is difficult to evaluate these on real data as realistic use cases very rarely come with a known causal graph to which output can be compared. In this paper, we present a dataset from an industrial subsystem at the European Spallation Source along with its causal graph which has been constructed from expert knowledge. This provides a testbed for causal discovery from time series observations of complex systems, and we believe this can help inform the development of causal discovery methodology.

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arXiv2023

Faithful graphical representations of local independence

Graphical models use graphs to represent conditional independence structure in the distribution of a random vector. In stochastic processes, graphs may represent so-called local independence or conditional Granger causality. Under some regularity conditions, a local independence graph implies a set of independences using a graphical criterion known as $δ$-separation, or using its generalization, $μ$-separation. This is a stochastic process analogue of $d$-separation in DAGs. However, there may be more independences than implied by this graph and this is a violation of so-called faithfulness. We characterize faithfulness in local independence graphs and give a method to construct a faithful graph from any local independence model such that the output equals the true graph when Markov and faithfulness assumptions hold. We discuss various assumptions that are weaker than faithfulness, and we explore different structure learning algorithms and their properties under varying assumptions.

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arXiv2023

Time-dependent mediators in survival analysis: Graphical representation of causal assumptions

We study time-dependent mediators in survival analysis using a treatment separation approach due to Didelez [2019] and based on earlier work by Robins and Richardson [2011]. This approach avoids nested counterfactuals and crossworld assumptions which are otherwise common in mediation analysis. The causal model of treatment, mediators, covariates, confounders and outcome is represented by causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, the DAGs tend to be very complex when we have measurements at a large number of time points. We therefore suggest using so-called rolled graphs in which a node represents an entire coordinate process instead of a single random variable, leading us to far simpler graphical representations. The rolled graphs are not necessarily acyclic; they can be analyzed by $δ$-separation which is the appropriate graphical separation criterion in this class of graphs and analogous to $d$-separation. In particular, $δ$-separation is a graphical tool for evaluating if the conditions of the mediation analysis are met or if unmeasured confounders influence the estimated effects. We also state a mediational g-formula. This is similar to the approach in Vansteelandt et al. [2019] although that paper has a different conceptual basis. Finally, we apply this framework to a statistical model based on a Cox model with an added treatment effect.survival analysis; mediation; causal inference; graphical models; local independence graphs

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arXiv2023

Analyzing Complex Systems with Cascades Using Continuous-Time Bayesian Networks

Interacting systems of events may exhibit cascading behavior where events tend to be temporally clustered. While the cascades themselves may be obvious from the data, it is important to understand which states of the system trigger them. For this purpose, we propose a modeling framework based on continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) to analyze cascading behavior in complex systems. This framework allows us to describe how events propagate through the system and to identify likely sentry states, that is, system states that may lead to imminent cascading behavior. Moreover, CTBNs have a simple graphical representation and provide interpretable outputs, both of which are important when communicating with domain experts. We also develop new methods for knowledge extraction from CTBNs and we apply the proposed methodology to a data set of alarms in a large industrial system.

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arXiv2023

Weak equivalence of local independence graphs

Classical graphical modeling of multivariate random vectors uses graphs to encode conditional independence. In graphical modeling of multivariate stochastic processes, graphs may encode so-called local independence analogously. If some coordinate processes of the multivariate stochastic process are unobserved, the local independence graph of the observed coordinate processes is a directed mixed graph (DMG). Two DMGs may encode the same local independences in which case we say that they are Markov equivalent. Markov equivalence is a central notion in graphical modeling. We show that deciding Markov equivalence of DMGs is coNP-complete, even under a sparsity assumption. As a remedy, we introduce a collection of equivalence relations on DMGs that are all less granular than Markov equivalence and we say that they are weak equivalence relations. This leads to feasible algorithms for naturally occurring computational problems related to weak equivalence of DMGs. The equivalence classes of a weak equivalence relation have attractive properties. In particular, each equivalence class has a greatest element which leads to a concise representation of an equivalence class. Moreover, these equivalence relations define a hierarchy of granularity in the graphical modeling which leads to simple and interpretable connections between equivalence relations corresponding to different levels of granularity.

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arXiv2023

Instrumental Processes Using Integrated Covariances

Instrumental variable methods are often used for parameter estimation in the presence of confounding. They can also be applied in stochastic processes. Instrumental variable analysis exploits moment equations to obtain estimators for causal parameters. We show that in stochastic processes one can find such moment equations using an integrated covariance matrix. This provides new instrumental variable methods, instrumental variable methods in a class of continuous-time processes as well as a unified treatment of discrete- and continuous-time processes.

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arXiv2022

Soft Maximin Estimation for Heterogeneous Data

Extracting a common robust signal from data divided into heterogeneous groups can be difficult when each group -- in addition to the signal -- can contain large, unique variation components. Previously, maximin estimation has been proposed as a robust estimation method in the presence of heterogeneous noise. We propose soft maximin estimation as a computationally attractive alternative aimed at striking a balance between pooled estimation and (hard) maximin estimation. The soft maximin method provides a range of estimators, controlled by a parameter $ζ>0$, that interpolates pooled least squares estimation and maximin estimation. By establishing relevant theoretical properties we argue that the soft maximin method is both statistically sensibel and computationally attractive. We also demonstrate, on real and simulated data, that the soft maximin estimator can offer improvements over both pooled OLS and hard maximin in terms of predictive performance and computational complexity. A time and memory efficient implementation is provided in the R package \verb+SMME+ available on CRAN.

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arXiv2022

Learning by Doing: Controlling a Dynamical System using Causality, Control, and Reinforcement Learning

Questions in causality, control, and reinforcement learning go beyond the classical machine learning task of prediction under i.i.d. observations. Instead, these fields consider the problem of learning how to actively perturb a system to achieve a certain effect on a response variable. Arguably, they have complementary views on the problem: In control, one usually aims to first identify the system by excitation strategies to then apply model-based design techniques to control the system. In (non-model-based) reinforcement learning, one directly optimizes a reward. In causality, one focus is on identifiability of causal structure. We believe that combining the different views might create synergies and this competition is meant as a first step toward such synergies. The participants had access to observational and (offline) interventional data generated by dynamical systems. Track CHEM considers an open-loop problem in which a single impulse at the beginning of the dynamics can be set, while Track ROBO considers a closed-loop problem in which control variables can be set at each time step. The goal in both tracks is to infer controls that drive the system to a desired state. Code is open-sourced ( https://github.com/LearningByDoingCompetition/learningbydoing-comp ) to reproduce the winning solutions of the competition and to facilitate trying out new methods on the competition tasks.

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arXiv2020

Causal screening for dynamical systems

Many classical algorithms output graphical representations of causal structures by testing conditional independence among a set of random variables. In dynamical systems, local independence can be used analogously as a testable implication of the underlying data-generating process. We suggest some inexpensive methods for causal screening which provide output with a sound causal interpretation under the assumption of ancestral faithfulness. The popular model class of linear Hawkes processes is used to provide an example of a dynamical causal model. We argue that for sparse causal graphs the output will often be close to complete. We give examples of this framework and apply it to a challenging biological system.

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arXiv2020

Graphical modeling of stochastic processes driven by correlated errors

We study a class of graphs that represent local independence structures in stochastic processes allowing for correlated error processes. Several graphs may encode the same local independencies and we characterize such equivalence classes of graphs. In the worst case, the number of conditions in our characterizations grows superpolynomially as a function of the size of the node set in the graph. We show that deciding Markov equivalence is coNP-complete which suggests that our characterizations cannot be improved upon substantially. We prove a global Markov property in the case of a multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process which is driven by correlated Brownian motions.

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arXiv2019

Markov equivalence of marginalized local independence graphs

Symmetric independence relations are often studied using graphical representations. Ancestral graphs or acyclic directed mixed graphs with $m$-separation provide classes of symmetric graphical independence models that are closed under marginalization. Asymmetric independence relations appear naturally for multivariate stochastic processes, for instance in terms of local independence. However, no class of graphs representing such asymmetric independence relations, which is also closed under marginalization, has been developed. We develop the theory of directed mixed graphs with $μ$-separation and show that this provides a graphical independence model class which is closed under marginalization and which generalizes previously considered graphical representations of local independence. For statistical applications, it is pivotal to characterize graphs that induce the same independence relations as such a Markov equivalence class of graphs is the object that is ultimately identifiable from observational data. Our main result is that for directed mixed graphs with $μ$-separation each Markov equivalence class contains a maximal element which can be constructed from the independence relations alone. Moreover, we introduce the directed mixed equivalence graph as the maximal graph with edge markings. This graph encodes all the information about the edges that is identifiable from the independence relations, and furthermore it can be computed efficiently from the maximal graph.

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