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S. A. Padoan

Publications and source records attributed to S. A. Padoan.

6 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2023

Statistical Prediction of Peaks Over a Threshold

In many applied fields it is desired to make predictions with the aim of assessing the plausibility of more severe events than those already recorded to safeguard against calamities that have not yet occurred. This problem can be analysed using extreme value theory. We consider the popular peaks over a threshold method and show that the generalised Pareto approximation of the true predictive densities of both a future unobservable excess or peak random variable can be very accurate. We propose both a frequentist and a Bayesian approach for the estimation of such predictive densities. We show the asymptotic accuracy of the corresponding estimators and, more importantly, prove that the resulting predictive inference is asymptotically reliable. We show the utility of the proposed predictive tools analysing extreme temperatures in Milan in Italy.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2017

Some Results on Joint Record Events

Let $X_1,X_2,\dots$ be independent and identically distributed random variables on the real line with a joint continuous distribution function $F$. The stochastic behavior of the sequence of subsequent records is well known. Alternatively to that, we investigate the stochastic behavior of arbitrary $X_j,X_k,j<k$, under the condition that they are records, without knowing their orders in the sequence of records. The results are completely different. In particular it turns out that the distribution of $X_k$, being a record, is not affected by the additional knowledge that $X_j$ is a record as well. On the contrary, the distribution of $X_j$, being a record, is affected by the additional knowledge that $X_k$ is a record as well. If $F$ has a density, then the gain of this additional information, measured by the corresponding Kullback-Leibler distance, is $j/k$, independent of $F$. We derive the limiting joint distribution of two records, which is not a bivariate extreme value distribution. We extend this result to the case of three records. In a special case we also derive the limiting joint distribution of increments among records.

math.PR↗
arXiv2017

On Multivariate Records from Random Vectors with Independent Components

Let $\boldsymbol{X}_1,\boldsymbol{X}_2,\dots$ be independent copies of a random vector $\boldsymbol{X}$ with values in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and with a continuous distribution function. The random vector $\boldsymbol{X}_n$ is a complete record, if each of its components is a record. As we require $\boldsymbol{X}$ to have independent components, crucial results for univariate records clearly carry over. But there are substantial differences as well: While there are infinitely many records in case $d=1$, there occur only finitely many in the series if $d\geq 2$. Consequently, there is a terminal complete record with probability one. We compute the distribution of the random total number of complete records and investigate the distribution of the terminal record. For complete records, the sequence of waiting times forms a Markov chain, but differently from the univariate case, now the state infinity is an absorbing element of the state space.

math.PR↗
arXiv2016

Multivariate Nonparametric Estimation of the Pickands Dependence Function using Bernstein Polynomials

Many applications in risk analysis, especially in environmental sciences, require the estimation of the dependence among multivariate maxima. A way to do this is by inferring the Pickands dependence function of the underlying extreme-value copula. A nonparametric estimator is constructed as the sample equivalent of a multivariate extension of the madogram. Shape constraints on the family of Pickands dependence functions are taken into account by means of a representation in terms of a specific type of Bernstein polynomials. The large-sample theory of the estimator is developed and its finite-sample performance is evaluated with a simulation study. The approach is illustrated by analyzing clusters consisting of seven weather stations that have recorded weekly maxima of hourly rainfall in France from 1993 to 2011.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2012

Statistical Modeling of Spatial Extremes

The areal modeling of the extremes of a natural process such as rainfall or temperature is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extreme areal rainfall is crucial in flood protection. This article reviews recent progress in the statistical modeling of spatial extremes, starting with sketches of the necessary elements of extreme value statistics and geostatistics. The main types of statistical models thus far proposed, based on latent variables, on copulas and on spatial max-stable processes, are described and then are compared by application to a data set on rainfall in Switzerland. Whereas latent variable modeling allows a better fit to marginal distributions, it fits the joint distributions of extremes poorly, so appropriately-chosen copula or max-stable models seem essential for successful spatial modeling of extremes.

stat.ME↗