arXiv subjects

S. Ali Pourmousavi

Publications and source records attributed to S. Ali Pourmousavi.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Calibrated uncertainty quantification for prosumer flexibility aggregation in ancillary service markets

Reliable forecasting of prosumer flexibility is critical for demand response aggregators participating in frequency controlled ancillary services market, where strict reliability requirements such as the P90 standard are enforced. Limited historical data, dependence on exogeneous factors, and heterogenous prosumer behaviour introduce significant epistemic uncertainty, making deterministic or poorly calibrated probabilistic models unsuitable for market bidding. This paper proposes the use of scalable uncertainty quantification framework that integrates Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) with conformal prediction (CP) to produce calibrated, finite sample prediction intervals for aggregated prosumer flexibility. The proposed framework is applied to a behind-the-meter aggregator participating in the Danish manual frequency restoration reserve capacity market. A large-scale synthetic dataset is generated using a modified industry-grade home energy management system, combined with publicly available load, solar, price, activation and device-level data. The resulting machine learning surrogate model captures aggregate prosumer price responsiveness and provides uncertainty-aware estimates suitable for market bidding. Multiple multivariate CP strategies are evaluated and benchmarked against conventional MCD-based methods. Results show that standalone MCD systematically overestimates available flexibility and violates P90 compliance, whereas the proposed MCD-CP framework achieves reliable coverage with controlled conservatism. When embedded in aggregator bidding model, conformalised methods substantially reduce overbidding risk and achieve upto 70% of perfect-information profit while satisfying regulatory reliability constraints, providing practical, computationally efficient, and market-compliant solution for aggregator flexibility forecasting under uncertainty.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Efficient reformulations of ReLU deep neural networks for surrogate modelling in power system optimisation

The ongoing decarbonisation of power systems is driving an increasing reliance on distributed energy resources, which introduces complex and nonlinear interactions that are difficult to capture in conventional optimisation models. As a result, machine learning based surrogate modelling has emerged as a promising approach, but integrating machine learning models such as ReLU deep neural networks (DNNs) directly into optimisation often results in nonconvex and computationally intractable formulations. This paper proposes a linear programming (LP) reformulation for a class of convexified ReLU DNNs with non-negative weight matrices beyond the first layer, enabling a tight and tractable embedding of learned surrogate models in optimisation. We evaluate the method using a case study on learning the prosumer's responsiveness within an aggregator bidding problem in the Danish tertiary capacity market. The proposed reformulation is benchmarked against state-of-the-art alternatives, including piecewise linearisation (PWL), MIP-based embedding, and other LP relaxations. Across multiple neural network architectures and market scenarios, the convexified ReLU DNN achieves solution quality comparable to PWL and MIP-based reformulations while significantly improving computational performance and preserving model fidelity, unlike penalty-based reformulations. The results demonstrate that convexified ReLU DNNs offer a scalable and reliable methodology for integrating learned surrogate models in optimisation, with applicability to a wide range of emerging power system applications.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

A New Time Series Similarity Measure and Its Smart Grid Applications

Many smart grid applications involve data mining, clustering, classification, identification, and anomaly detection, among others. These applications primarily depend on the measurement of similarity, which is the distance between different time series or subsequences of a time series. The commonly used time series distance measures, namely Euclidean Distance (ED) and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), do not quantify the flexible nature of electricity usage data in terms of temporal dynamics. As a result, there is a need for a new distance measure that can quantify both the amplitude and temporal changes of electricity time series for smart grid applications, e.g., demand response and load profiling. This paper introduces a novel distance measure to compare electricity usage patterns. The method consists of two phases that quantify the effort required to reshape one time series into another, considering both amplitude and temporal changes. The proposed method is evaluated against ED and DTW using real-world data in three smart grid applications. Overall, the proposed measure outperforms ED and DTW in accurately identifying the best load scheduling strategy, anomalous days with irregular electricity usage, and determining electricity users' behind-the-meter (BTM) equipment.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2024

Modelling Irrational Behaviour of Residential End Users using Non-Stationary Gaussian Processes

Demand response (DR) plays a critical role in ensuring efficient electricity consumption and optimal use of network assets. Yet, existing DR models often overlook a crucial element, the irrational behaviour of electricity end users. In this work, we propose a price-responsive model that incorporates key aspects of end-user irrationality, specifically loss aversion, time inconsistency, and bounded rationality. To this end, we first develop a framework that uses Multiple Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (MSTL) and non-stationary Gaussian processes to model the randomness in the electricity consumption by residential consumers. The impact of this model is then evaluated through a community battery storage (CBS) business model. Additionally, we apply a chance-constrained optimisation model for CBS operation that deals with the unpredictability of the end-user irrationality. Our simulations using real-world data show that the proposed DR model provides a more realistic estimate of end-user price-responsive behaviour when considering irrationality. Compared to a deterministic model that cannot fully take into account the irrational behaviour of end users, the chance-constrained CBS operation model yields an additional 19% revenue. Lastly, the business model reduces the electricity costs of solar end users by 11%.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

Dynamic and Memory-efficient Shape Based Methodologies for User Type Identification in Smart Grid Applications

Detecting behind-the-meter (BTM) equipment and major appliances at the residential level and tracking their changes in real time is important for aggregators and traditional electricity utilities. In our previous work, we developed a systematic solution called IRMAC to identify residential users' BTM equipment and applications from their imported energy data. As a part of IRMAC, a Similarity Profile (SP) was proposed for dimensionality reduction and extracting self-join similarity from the end users' daily electricity usage data. The proposed SP calculation, however, was computationally expensive and required a significant amount of memory at the user's end. To realise the benefits of edge computing, in this paper, we propose and assess three computationally-efficient updating solutions, namely additive, fixed memory, and codebook-based updating methods. Extensive simulation studies are carried out using real PV users' data to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods in identifying PV users, tracking changes in real time, and examining memory usage. We found that the Codebook-based solution reduces more than 30\% of the required memory without compromising the performance of extracting users' features. When the end users' data storage and computation speed are concerned, the fixed-memory method outperforms the others. In terms of tracking the changes, different variations of the fixed-memory method show various inertia levels, making them suitable for different applications.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

A probabilistic forecast methodology for volatile electricity prices in the Australian National Electricity Market

The South Australia region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) displays some of the highest levels of price volatility observed in modern electricity markets. This paper outlines an approach to probabilistic forecasting under these extreme conditions, including spike filtration and several post-processing steps. We propose using quantile regression as an ensemble tool for probabilistic forecasting, with our combined forecasts achieving superior results compared to all constituent models. Within our ensemble framework, we demonstrate that averaging models with varying training length periods leads to a more adaptive model and increased prediction accuracy. The applicability of the final model is evaluated by comparing our median forecasts with the point forecasts available from the Australian NEM operator, with our model outperforming these NEM forecasts by a significant margin.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

On the Financial Consequences of Simplified Battery Sizing Models without Considering Operational Details

Optimal battery sizing studies tend to overly simplify the practical aspects of battery operation within the battery sizing framework. Such assumptions may lead to a suboptimal battery capacity, resulting in significant financial losses for a battery project that could last more than a decade. In this paper, we compare the most common existing sizing methods in the literature with a battery sizing model that incorporates the practical operation of a battery, that is, receding horizon operation. Consequently, we quantify the financial losses caused by the suboptimal capacities obtained by these models for a realistic case study related to community battery storage (CBS). We develop the case study by constructing a mathematical framework for the CBS and local end users. Our results show that existing sizing methods can lead to financial losses of up to 22%.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

IRMAC: Interpretable Refined Motifs in Binary Classification for Smart Grid Applications

Modern power systems are experiencing the challenge of high uncertainty with the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources and the electrification of heating systems. In this paradigm shift, understanding electricity users' demand is of utmost value to retailers, aggregators, and policymakers. However, behind-the-meter (BTM) equipment and appliances at the household level are unknown to the other stakeholders mainly due to privacy concerns and tight regulations. In this paper, we seek to identify residential consumers based on their BTM equipment, mainly rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems and electric heating, using imported/purchased energy data from utility meters. To solve this problem with an interpretable, fast, secure, and maintainable solution, we propose an integrated method called Interpretable Refined Motifs And binary Classification (IRMAC). The proposed method comprises a novel shape-based pattern extraction technique, called Refined Motif (RM) discovery, and a single-neuron classifier. The first part extracts a sub-pattern from the long time series considering the frequency of occurrences, average dissimilarity, and time dynamics while emphasising specific times with annotated distances. The second part identifies users' types with linear complexity while preserving the transparency of the algorithms. With the real data from Australia and Denmark, the proposed method is tested and verified in identifying PV owners and electrical heating system users.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Optimal activity and battery scheduling algorithm using load and solar generation forecasts

Energy usage optimal scheduling has attracted great attention in the power system community, where various methodologies have been proposed. However, in real-world applications, the optimal scheduling problems require reliable energy forecasting, which is scarcely discussed as a joint solution to the scheduling problem. The 5\textsuperscript{th} IEEE Computational Intelligence Society (IEEE-CIS) competition raised a practical problem of decreasing the electricity bill by scheduling building activities, where forecasting the solar energy generation and building consumption is a necessity. To solve this problem, we propose a technical sequence for tackling the solar PV and demand forecast and optimal scheduling problems, where solar generation prediction methods and an optimal university lectures scheduling algorithm are proposed.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Optimal offering strategy for an aggregator across multiple products of European day-ahead market

Most literature surrounding optimal bidding strategies for aggregators in European day-ahead market (DAM) considers only hourly orders. While other order types (e.g., block orders) may better represent the temporal characteristics of certain sources of flexibility (e.g., behind-the-meter flexibility), the increased combinations from these orders make it hard to develop a tractable optimization formulation. Thus, our aim in this paper is to develop a tractable optimal offering strategy for flexibility aggregators in the European DAM (a.k.a. Elspot) considering these orders. Towards this, we employ a price-based mechanism of procuring flexibility and place hourly and regular block orders in the market. We develop two mixed-integer bi-linear programs: 1) a brute force formulation for validation and 2) a novel formulation based on logical constraints. To evaluate the performance of these formulations, we proposed a generic flexibility model for an aggregated cluster of prosumers that considers the prosumers' responsiveness, inter-temporal dependencies, and seasonal and diurnal variations. The simulation results show that the proposed model significantly outperforms the brute force model in terms of computation speed. Also, we observed that using block orders has potential for profitability of an aggregator.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Economic evaluation of stochastic home energy management systems in a realistic rolling horizon setting

Home energy management systems (HEMSs) are expected to become a crucial part of future smart grids. However, there is a limited number of studies that comprehensively assess the potential economic benefits of HEMS for consumers under real market conditions and which take account of consumers' capabilities. In this study, a new optimization-based HEMS controller is presented to operate a photovoltaic and battery system. The HEMS controller considers the consumers' electrical load uncertainty by integrating multivariate probabilistic forecasting methods and a stochastic optimization in a rolling horizon. As a case study, a comprehensive simulation study is designed to emulate the operation of a real HEMS using real data from nine Danish homes over different seasons under real-time retail prices. The optimization-based control strategies are compared with a default (naive) control strategy that encourages self consumption. Simulation results show that seasonality in the consumers' load and electricity prices have a significant impact on the performance of the control strategies. A combination of optimization-based and naive control strategy presents the best overall results.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Three-Layer Joint Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained Framework for Optimal Day-Ahead Scheduling of E-mobility Ecosystem

A high number of electric vehicles (EVs) in the transportation sector necessitates an advanced scheduling framework for e-mobility ecosystem operation as a whole in order to overcome range anxiety and create a viable business model for charging stations (CSs). The framework must account for the stochastic nature of all stakeholders' operations, including EV drivers, CSs, and retailers and their mutual interactions. In this paper, a three-layer joint distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) model is proposed to plan grid-to-vehicle (G2V) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) operation in day-ahead for e-mobility ecosystems. The proposed stochastic model does not rely on a specific probability distribution for stochastic parameters. To solve the problem, an iterative process is proposed using joint DRCC formulation. To achieve computational traceability, the exact reformulation is implemented for double-sided and single-sided chance constraints (CCs). Furthermore, the impact of temporal correlation of uncertain PV generation on CSs operation is considered. A simulation study is carried out for an ecosystem of three retailers, nine CSs, and 600 EVs based on real data from San Francisco, the USA. The simulation results show the necessity and applicability of such a scheduling method for the e-mobility ecosystem in an uncertain environment, e.g., by reducing the number of unique EVs that failed to reach their destination from 272 to 61.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2017

Ownership Cost Calculations for Distributed Energy Resources Using Uncertainty and Risk Analyses

Ownership cost calculation plays an important role in optimal operation of distributed energy resources (DERs) and microgrids (MGs) in the future power system, known as smart grid. In this paper, a general framework for ownership cost calculation is proposed using uncertainty and risk analyses. Four ownership cost calculation approaches are introduced and compared based on their associated risk values. Finally, the best method is chosen based on a series of simulation results, performed for a typical diesel generator (DiG). Although simulation results are given for a DiG (as commonly used in MGs), the proposed approaches can be applied to other MG components, such as batteries, with slight modifications, as presented in this paper. The analyses and proposed approaches can be useful in MG optimal design, optimal power flow, and market-based operation of the smart grid for accurate operational cost calculations.

econ.GN↗