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S. H. Suyu

Publications and source records attributed to S. H. Suyu.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

TDCOSMO X. Automated Modeling of 9 Strongly Lensed Quasars and Comparison Between Lens Modeling Software

To use strong gravitational lenses as an astrophysical or cosmological probe, models of their mass distributions are often needed. We present a new, time-efficient automation code for uniform modeling of strongly lensed quasars with GLEE, a lens modeling software, for high-resolution multi-band data. By using the observed positions of the lensed quasars and the spatially extended surface brightness distribution of the lensed quasar host galaxy, we obtain a model of the mass distribution of the lens galaxy. We apply this uniform modeling pipeline to a sample of nine strongly lensed quasars with HST WFC 3 images. The models show in most cases well reconstructed light components and a good alignment between mass and light centroids. We find that the automated modeling code significantly reduces the user input time during the modeling process. The preparation time of required input files is reduced significantly. This automated modeling pipeline can efficiently produce uniform models of extensive lens system samples which can be used for further cosmological analysis. A blind test through a comparison with the results of an independent automated modeling pipeline based on the modeling software Lenstronomy reveals important lessons. Quantities such as Einstein radius, astrometry, mass flattening and position angle are generally robustly determined. Other quantities depend crucially on the quality of the data and the accuracy of the PSF reconstruction. Better data and/or more detailed analysis will be necessary to elevate our automated models to cosmography grade. Nevertheless, our pipeline enables the quick selection of lenses for follow-up monitoring and further modeling, significantly speeding up the construction of cosmography-grade models. This is an important step forward to take advantage of the orders of magnitude increase in the number of lenses expected in the coming decade.

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Reconstructing the extended structure of multiple sources strongly lensed by the ultra-massive elliptical galaxy SDSS J0100+1818

We study the total and baryonic mass distributions of the deflector SDSS J0100+1818 through a full strong lensing analysis. The system is composed by an ultra-massive early-type galaxy at $z=0.581$, with total stellar mass of $(1.5 \pm 0.3) 10^{12}$ M$_\odot$ and stellar velocity dispersion of ($450 \pm 40$) km s$^{-1}$, surrounded by ten multiple images of three background sources, two of which spectroscopically confirmed at $z=1.880$. We take advantage of high-resolution HST photometry and VLT/X-shooter spectroscopy to measure the positions of the multiple images and perform a strong lensing study with the software GLEE. We test different total mass profiles for the lens and model the background sources first as point-like and then as extended objects. We successfully predict the positions of the observed multiple images and reconstruct over approximately 7200 HST pixels the complex surface brightness distributions of the sources. We measure the cumulative total mass profile of the lens and find a total mass value of $(9.1 \pm 0.1) 10^{12}$ M$_\odot$, within the Einstein radius of approximately 42 kpc, and stellar-over-total mass fractions ranging from ($49 \pm 12$)%, at the half-light radius ($R_e = 9.3$ kpc) of the lens galaxy, to ($10 \pm 2$)%, in the outer regions ($R = 70$kpc). These results suggest that the baryonic mass component of SDSS J0100+1818 is very concentrated in its core and that the lens early-type galaxy/group is immersed in a massive dark matter halo. This is consistent with what found in other ultra-high mass candidates at intermediate redshift. We measure also the physical sizes of the distant sources, resolving them down to a few hundreds of parsec. Finally, we quantify and discuss a relevant source of systematic uncertainties on the reconstructed sizes of background galaxies, associated to the adopted lens total mass model.

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Strong lensing time-delay cosmography in the 2020s

Multiply imaged time-variable sources can be used to measure absolute distances as a function of redshifts and thus determine cosmological parameters, chiefly the Hubble Constant H$_0$. In the two decades up to 2020, through a number of observational and conceptual breakthroughs, this so-called time-delay cosmography has reached a precision sufficient to be an important independent voice in the current ``Hubble tension'' debate between early- and late-universe determinations of H$_0$. The 2020s promise to deliver major advances in time-delay cosmography, owing to the large number of lenses to be discovered by new and upcoming surveys and the vastly improved capabilities for follow-up and analysis. In this review -- after a brief summary of the foundations of the method and recent advances -- we outline the opportunities for the decade and the challenges that will need to be overcome in order to meet the goal of the determination of H$_0$ from time-delay cosmography with 1\% precision and accuracy.

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Constraining the multi-scale dark-matter distribution in CASSOWARY 31 with strong gravitational lensing and stellar dynamics

We study the inner structure of the group-scale lens CASSOWARY 31 (CSWA 31) by adopting both strong lensing and dynamical modeling. CSWA 31 is a peculiar lens system. The brightest group galaxy (BGG) is an ultra-massive elliptical galaxy at z = 0.683 with a weighted mean velocity dispersion of $σ= 432 \pm 31$ km s$^{-1}$. It is surrounded by group members and several lensed arcs probing up to ~150 kpc in projection. Our results significantly improve previous analyses of CSWA 31 thanks to the new HST imaging and MUSE integral-field spectroscopy. From the secure identification of five sets of multiple images and measurements of the spatially-resolved stellar kinematics of the BGG, we conduct a detailed analysis of the multi-scale mass distribution using various modeling approaches, both in the single and multiple lens-plane scenarios. Our best-fit mass models reproduce the positions of multiple images and provide robust reconstructions for two background galaxies at z = 1.4869 and z = 2.763. The relative contributions from the BGG and group-scale halo are remarkably consistent in our three reference models, demonstrating the self-consistency between strong lensing analyses based on image position and extended image modeling. We find that the ultra-massive BGG dominates the projected total mass profiles within 20 kpc, while the group-scale halo dominates at larger radii. The total projected mass enclosed within $R_{eff}$ = 27.2 kpc is $1.10_{-0.04}^{+0.02} \times 10^{13}$ M$_\odot$. We find that CSWA 31 is a peculiar fossil group, strongly dark-matter dominated towards the central region, and with a projected total mass profile similar to higher-mass cluster-scale halos. The total mass-density slope within the effective radius is shallower than isothermal, consistent with previous analyses of early-type galaxies in overdense environments.

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First JWST observations of a gravitational lens: Mass model from new multiple images with near-infrared observations of SMACS J0723.3-7327

We present our lens mass model of SMACS J0723, the first strong gravitational lens observed by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). We use data from the Hubble Space Telescope and Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) to build our 'pre-JWST' lens model, and refine it with newly available JWST near-infrared imaging in our JWST model. To reproduce the positions of all multiple lensed images with good accuracy, the adopted mass parameterization consists of one cluster-scale component, accounting mainly for the dark matter distribution, the galaxy cluster members and an external shear component. The pre-JWST model has, as constraints, 19 multiple images from six background sources, of which four have secure spectroscopic redshift measurements from this work. The JWST model has more than twice the number of constraints, 30 additional multiple images from another eleven lensed sources. Both models can reproduce very well the multiple image positions with a $δ_{rms}$ of $0.39''$ and $0.51''$, for the pre-JWST and JWST models, respectively. The total mass estimates within a radius of 128~kpc (~ the Einstein radius) are $7.9_{-0.2}^{+0.3}\times 10^{13}\rm M_{\odot}$ and $8.7_{-0.2}^{+0.2}\times 10^{13}\rm M_{\odot}$, for the pre-JWST and JWST models, respectively. We predict with our mass models the redshifts of the newly detected JWST sources, which are crucial information for systems without spectroscopic measurements for further studies and follow-up observations. Interestingly, one family detected with JWST is found to be at a very high redshift, $z>7.5$ (68% confidence level) and with one image having lensing magnification of $|μ|=9.5_{-0.8}^{+0.9}$, making it an interesting case for future studies. The lens models, including magnification maps and redshifts estimated from the model are made publicly available, along with the full spectroscopic redshift catalogue from MUSE.

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Strong lensing in UNIONS: Toward a pipeline from discovery to modeling

We present a search for galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses in the initial 2 500 square degrees of the Canada-France Imaging Survey (CFIS). We designed a convolutional neural network (CNN) committee that we applied to a selection of 2 344 002 exquisite-seeing $r$-band images of color-selected luminous red galaxies (LRGs). Our classification uses a realistic training set where the lensing galaxies and the lensed sources are both taken from real data, namely the CFIS $r$-band images themselves and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). A total of 9 460 candidates obtain a score above 0.5 with the CNN committee. After a visual inspection of the candidates, we find a total of 133 lens candidates, of which 104 are completely new. The set of false positives mainly contains ring, spiral, and merger galaxies, and to a lesser extent galaxies with nearby companions. We classify 32 of the lens candidates as secure lenses and 101 as maybe lenses. For the 32 highest quality lenses, we also fit a singular isothermal ellipsoid mass profile with external shear along with an elliptical Sersic profile for the lens and source light. This automated modeling step provides distributions of properties for both sources and lenses that have Einstein radii in the range $0.5\arcsec<θ_E<2.5\arcsec$. Finally, we introduce a new lens and/or source single-band deblending algorithm based on auto-encoder representation of our candidates. This is the first time an end-to-end lens-finding and modeling pipeline is assembled together, in view of future lens searches in a single band, as will be possible with Euclid.

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TDCOSMO. IX. Systematic comparison between lens modelling software programs: time delay prediction for WGD 2038-4008

The importance of alternative methods for measuring the Hubble constant, such as time-delay cosmography, is highlighted by the recent Hubble tension. It is paramount to thoroughly investigate and rule out systematic biases in all measurement methods before we can accept new physics as the source of this tension. In this study, we perform a check for systematic biases in the lens modelling procedure of time-delay cosmography by comparing independent and blind time-delay predictions of the system WGD 2038-4008 from two teams using two different software programs: GLEE and LENSTRONOMY. The predicted time delays from the two teams incorporate the stellar kinematics of the deflector and the external convergence from line-of-sight structures. The un-blinded time-delay predictions from the two teams agree within $1.2σ$, implying that once the time delay is measured the inferred Hubble constant will also be mutually consistent. However, there is a $\sim$4$σ$ discrepancy between the power-law model slope and external shear, which is a significant discrepancy at the level of lens models before the stellar kinematics and the external convergence are incorporated. We identify the difference in the reconstructed point spread function (PSF) to be the source of this discrepancy. When the same reconstructed PSF was used by both teams, we achieved excellent agreement, within $\sim$0.6$σ$, indicating that potential systematics stemming from source reconstruction algorithms and investigator choices are well under control. We recommend that future studies supersample the PSF as needed and marginalize over multiple algorithms or realizations for the PSF reconstruction to mitigate the systematics associated with the PSF. A future study will measure the time delays of the system WGD 2038-4008 and infer the Hubble constant based on our mass models.

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STRIDES: Automated uniform models for 30 quadruply imaged quasars

Gravitational time delays provide a powerful one step measurement of $H_0$, independent of all other probes. One key ingredient in time delay cosmography are high accuracy lens models. Those are currently expensive to obtain, both, in terms of computing and investigator time (10$^{5-6}$ CPU hours and $\sim$ 0.5-1 year, respectively). Major improvements in modeling speed are therefore necessary to exploit the large number of lenses that are forecast to be discovered over the current decade. In order to bypass this roadblock, building on the work by Shajib et al. (2019), we develop an automated modeling pipeline and apply it to a sample of 30 quadruply imaged quasars and one lensed compact galaxy, observed by the Hubble Space Telescope in multiple bands. Our automated pipeline can derive models for 30/31 lenses with few hours of human time and <100 CPU hours of computing time for a typical system. For each lens, we provide measurements of key parameters and predictions of magnification as well as time delays for the multiple images. We characterize the cosmography-readiness of our models using the stability of differences in Fermat potential (proportional to time delay) w.r.t. modeling choices. We find that for 10/30 lenses our models are cosmography or nearly cosmography grade (<3% and 3-5% variations). For 6/30 lenses the models are close to cosmography grade (5-10%). These results are based on informative priors and will need to be confirmed by further analysis. However, they are also likely to improve by extending the pipeline modeling sequence and options. In conclusion, we show that uniform cosmography grade modeling of large strong lens samples is within reach.

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GIGA-Lens: Fast Bayesian Inference for Strong Gravitational Lens Modeling

We present GIGA-Lens: a gradient-informed, GPU-accelerated Bayesian framework for modeling strong gravitational lensing systems, implemented in TensorFlow and JAX. The three components, optimization using multi-start gradient descent, posterior covariance estimation with variational inference, and sampling via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, all take advantage of gradient information through automatic differentiation and massive parallelization on graphics processing units (GPUs). We test our pipeline on a large set of simulated systems and demonstrate in detail its high level of performance. The average time to model a single system on four Nvidia A100 GPUs is 105 seconds. The robustness, speed, and scalability offered by this framework make it possible to model the large number of strong lenses found in current surveys and present a very promising prospect for the modeling of $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ lensing systems expected to be discovered in the era of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, Euclid, and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.

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HOLISMOKES -- VII. Time-delay measurement of strongly lensed Type Ia supernovae using machine learning

The Hubble constant ($H_0$) is one of the fundamental parameters in cosmology, but there is a heated debate around the $>$4$σ$ tension between the local Cepheid distance ladder and the early Universe measurements. Strongly lensed Type Ia supernovae (LSNe Ia) are an independent and direct way to measure $H_0$, where a time-delay measurement between the multiple supernova (SN) images is required. In this work, we present two machine learning approaches for measuring time delays in LSNe Ia, namely, a fully connected neural network (FCNN) and a random forest (RF). For the training of the FCNN and the RF, we simulate mock LSNe Ia from theoretical SN Ia models that include observational noise and microlensing. We test the generalizability of the machine learning models by using a final test set based on empirical LSN Ia light curves not used in the training process, and we find that only the RF provides a low enough bias to achieve precision cosmology; as such, RF is therefore preferred over our FCNN approach for applications to real systems. For the RF with single-band photometry in the $i$ band, we obtain an accuracy better than 1\% in all investigated cases for time delays longer than 15 days, assuming follow-up observations with a 5$σ$ point-source depth of 24.7, a two day cadence with a few random gaps, and a detection of the LSNe Ia 8 to 10 days before peak in the observer frame. In terms of precision, we can achieve an approximately 1.5-day uncertainty for a typical source redshift of $\sim$0.8 on the $i$ band under the same assumptions. To improve the measurement, we find that using three bands, where we train a RF for each band separately and combine them afterward, helps to reduce the uncertainty to $\sim$1.0 day. We have publicly released the microlensed spectra and light curves used in this work.

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Galaxy cluster strong lensing cosmography: cosmological constraints from a sample of regular galaxy clusters

Cluster strong lensing cosmography is a promising probe of the background geometry of the Universe and several studies have emerged, thanks to the increased quality of observations using space and ground-based telescopes. For the first time, we use a sample of five cluster strong lenses to measure the values of cosmological parameters and combine them with those from classical probes. In order to assess the degeneracies and the effectiveness of strong-lensing cosmography in constraining the background geometry of the Universe, we adopt four cosmological scenarios. We find good constraining power on the total matter density of the Universe ($Ω_{\rm m}$) and the equation of state of the dark energy parameter $w$. For a flat $w$CDM cosmology, we find $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.30_{-0.11}^{+0.09}$ and $w=-1.12_{-0.32}^{+0.17}$ from strong lensing only. Interestingly, we show that the constraints from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) are improved by factors of 2.5 and 4.0 on $Ω_{\rm m}$ and $w$, respectively, when combined with our posterior distributions in this cosmological model. In a scenario where the equation of state of dark energy evolves with redshift, the strong lensing constraints are compatible with a cosmological constant (i.e. $w=-1$). In a curved cosmology, our strong lensing analyses can accommodate a large range of values for the curvature of the Universe of $Ω_{\rm k}=0.28_{-0.21}^{+0.16}$. In all cosmological scenarios, we show that our strong lensing constraints are complementary and in good agreement with measurements from the CMB, baryon acoustic oscillations and Type Ia supernovae. Our results show that cluster strong lensing cosmography is a potentially powerful probe to be included in the cosmological analyses of future surveys.

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TDCOSMO VIII: Cosmological distance measurements in light of the mass-sheet degeneracy -- forecasts from strong lensing and IFU stellar kinematics

Time-delay strong lensing (TDSL) is a powerful probe of the current expansion rate of the Universe. However, in light of the discrepancies between early and late-time cosmological studies, efforts revolve around the characterisation of systematic uncertainties in the methods. Here, we focus on the mass-sheet degeneracy (MSD), which is considered a significant source of systematics in TDSL, and aim to assess the constraining power provided by IFU stellar kinematics. We approximate the MSD with a cored, two-parameter extension to the lensing mass profiles (with core radius $r_{\rm c}$ and mass-sheet parameter $λ_{\rm int}$). In addition, we utilise mock IFU stellar kinematics of time-delay strong lenses, given the prospects of obtaining such data with JWST. We construct joint strong lensing and stellar dynamical models, where the time delays, mock imaging and IFU observations are used to constrain the mass profile of lens galaxies, and yield joint constraints on the time-delay distance ($D_{Δt}$) and angular diameter distance ($D_{\rm d}$) to the lens. We find that mock JWST-like stellar kinematics constrain the internal mass sheet and limit its contribution to the uncertainties of $D_{Δt}$ and $D_{\rm d}$, each at the < 4% level, without assumptions on the background cosmological model. These distance constraints would translate to a < 4% precision measurement on $H_{\rm 0}$ in flat $ΛCDM$ for a single lens. Our study shows that IFU stellar kinematics of time-delay strong lenses will be key in lifting the MSD on a per lens basis, assuming reasonable core sizes. However, even in the limit of infinite $r_{\rm c}$, where $D_{Δt}$ is degenerate with $λ_{\rm int}$, stellar kinematics of the deflector, time delays and imaging data will provide powerful constraints on $D_{\rm d}$, which becomes the dominant source of information in the cosmological inference.

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HOLISMOKES -- V. Microlensing of type II supernovae and time-delay inference through spectroscopic phase retrieval

We investigate strongly gravitationally lensed type II supernovae (LSNe II) for time-delay cosmography incorporating microlensing effects, which expands on previous microlensing studies of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). We use the radiative-transfer code ${\rm \small TARDIS}$ to recreate five spectra of the prototypical SN 1999em at different times within the plateau phase of the light curve. The microlensing-induced deformations of the spectra and light curves are calculated by placing the SN into magnification maps generated with the code ${\rm \small GERLUMPH}$. We study the impact of microlensing on the color curves and find that there is no strong influence on them during the investigated time interval of the plateau phase. The color curves are only weakly affected by microlensing due to the almost achromatic behavior of the intensity profiles. However, the lack of non-linear structure in the color curves makes time-delay measurements difficult given the possible presence of differential dust extinction. Therefore, we further investigate SN phase inference through spectral absorption lines under the influence of microlensing and Gaussian noise. As the spectral features shift to longer wavelengths with progressing time after explosion, the measured wavelength of a specific absorption line provides information on the epoch of the SN. The comparison between retrieved epochs of two observed lensing images then gives the time delay of the images. We find that the phase retrieval method using spectral features yields accurate delays with uncertainties $\small {\lesssim}$2 days, making it a promising approach.

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HOLISMOKES. VI. New galaxy-scale strong lens candidates from the HSC-SSP imaging survey

We have carried out a systematic search for galaxy-scale strong lenses in multiband imaging from the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey. Our automated pipeline, based on realistic strong-lens simulations, deep neural network classification, and visual inspection, is aimed at efficiently selecting systems with wide image separations (Einstein radii ~1.0-3.0"), intermediate redshift lenses (z ~ 0.4-0.7), and bright arcs for galaxy evolution and cosmology. We classified gri images of all 62.5 million galaxies in HSC Wide with i-band Kron radius >0.8" to avoid strict pre-selections and to prepare for the upcoming era of deep, wide-scale imaging surveys with Euclid and Rubin Observatory. We obtained 206 newly-discovered candidates classified as definite or probable lenses with either spatially-resolved multiple images or extended, distorted arcs. In addition, we found 88 high-quality candidates that were assigned lower confidence in previous HSC searches, and we recovered 173 known systems in the literature. These results demonstrate that, aided by limited human input, deep learning pipelines with false positive rates as low as ~0.01% can be very powerful tools for identifying the rare strong lenses from large catalogs, and can also largely extend the samples found by traditional algorithms. We provide a ranked list of candidates for future spectroscopic confirmation.

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Photometric Redshift Estimation with a Convolutional Neural Network: NetZ

The redshifts of galaxies are a key attribute that is needed for nearly all extragalactic studies. Since spectroscopic redshifts require additional telescope and human resources, millions of galaxies are known without spectroscopic redshifts. Therefore, it is crucial to have methods for estimating the redshift of a galaxy based on its photometric properties, the so-called photo-$z$. We developed NetZ, a new method using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict the photo-$z$ based on galaxy images, in contrast to previous methods which often used only the integrated photometry of galaxies without their images. We use data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC SSP) in five different filters as training data. The network over the whole redshift range between 0 and 4 performs well overall and especially in the high-$z$ range better than other methods on the same data. We obtain an accuracy $|z_\text{pred}-z_\text{ref}|$ of $σ= 0.12$ (68% confidence interval) with a CNN working for all galaxy types averaged over all galaxies in the redshift range of 0 to $\sim$4. By limiting to smaller redshift ranges or to Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs), we find a further notable improvement. We publish more than 34 million new photo-$z$ values predicted with NetZ here. This shows that the new method is very simple and fast to apply, and, importantly, covers a wide redshift range limited only by the available training data. It is broadly applicable and beneficial to imaging surveys, particularly upcoming surveys like the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time which will provide images of billions of galaxies with similar image quality as HSC.

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HOLISMOKES -- II. Identifying galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses in Pan-STARRS using convolutional neural networks

We present a systematic search for wide-separation (Einstein radius >1.5"), galaxy-scale strong lenses in the 30 000 sq.deg of the Pan-STARRS 3pi survey on the Northern sky. With long time delays of a few days to weeks, such systems are particularly well suited for catching strongly lensed supernovae with spatially-resolved multiple images and open new perspectives on early-phase supernova spectroscopy and cosmography. We produce a set of realistic simulations by painting lensed COSMOS sources on Pan-STARRS image cutouts of lens luminous red galaxies with known redshift and velocity dispersion from SDSS. First of all, we compute the photometry of mock lenses in gri bands and apply a simple catalog-level neural network to identify a sample of 1050207 galaxies with similar colors and magnitudes as the mocks. Secondly, we train a convolutional neural network (CNN) on Pan-STARRS gri image cutouts to classify this sample and obtain sets of 105760 and 12382 lens candidates with scores pCNN>0.5 and >0.9, respectively. Extensive tests show that CNN performances rely heavily on the design of lens simulations and choice of negative examples for training, but little on the network architecture. Finally, we visually inspect all galaxies with pCNN>0.9 to assemble a final set of 330 high-quality newly-discovered lens candidates while recovering 23 published systems. For a subset, SDSS spectroscopy on the lens central regions proves our method correctly identifies lens LRGs at z~0.1-0.7. Five spectra also show robust signatures of high-redshift background sources and Pan-STARRS imaging confirms one of them as a quadruply-imaged red source at z_s = 1.185 strongly lensed by a foreground LRG at z_d = 0.3155. In the future, we expect that the efficient and automated two-step classification method presented in this paper will be applicable to the deeper gri stacks from the LSST with minor adjustments.

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HOLISMOKES -- III. Achromatic Phase of Strongly Lensed Type Ia Supernovae

To use strongly lensed Type Ia supernovae (LSNe Ia) for cosmology, a time-delay measurement between the multiple supernova (SN) images is necessary. The sharp rise and decline of SN Ia light curves make them promising for measuring time delays, but microlensing can distort these light curves and therefore add large uncertainties to the measurements. An alternative approach is to use color curves where uncertainties due to microlensing are significantly reduced for a certain period of time known as the achromatic phase. In this work, we investigate in detail the achromatic phase, testing four different SN Ia models with various microlensing configurations. We find on average an achromatic phase of around three rest-frame weeks or longer for most color curves but the spread in the duration of the achromatic phase (due to different microlensing maps and filter combinations) is quite large and an achromatic phase of just a few days is also possible. Furthermore, the achromatic phase is longer for smoother microlensing maps, lower macro-magnifications and larger mean Einstein radii of microlenses. From our investigations, we do not find a strong dependency on the model or on asymmetries in the SN ejecta. Further, we find that three independent LSST color curves exhibit features such as extreme points or turning points within the achromatic phase, which make them promising for time-delay measurements. These curves contain combinations of rest-frame bands $u$, $g$, $r$, and $i$ and to observe them for typical LSN Ia redshifts, it would be ideal to cover (observer-frame) filters $r$, $i$, $z$, $y$, $J$, and $H$.

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TDCOSMO IV: Hierarchical time-delay cosmography -- joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles

The H0LiCOW collaboration inferred via gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant $H_0=73.3^{+1.7}_{-1.8}$ km s$^{-1}{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars plus standard dark matter halos. The mass-sheet transform (MST) that leaves the lensing observables unchanged is considered the dominant source of residual uncertainty in $H_0$. We quantify any potential effect of the MST with flexible mass models that are maximally degenerate with H0. Our calculation is based on a new hierarchical approach in which the MST is only constrained by stellar kinematics. The approach is validated on hydrodynamically simulated lenses. We apply the method to the TDCOSMO sample of 7 lenses (6 from H0LiCOW) and measure $H_0=74.5^{+5.6}_{-6.1}$ km s$^{-1}{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. In order to further constrain the deflector mass profiles, we then add imaging and spectroscopy for 33 strong gravitational lenses from the SLACS sample. For 9 of the SLAC lenses we use resolved kinematics to constrain the stellar anisotropy. From the joint analysis of the TDCOSMO+SLACS sample, we measure $H_0=67.4^{+4.1}_{-3.2}$ km s$^{-1}{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, assuming that the TDCOSMO and SLACS galaxies are drawn from the same parent population. The blind H0LiCOW, TDCOSMO-only and TDCOSMO+SLACS analyses are in mutual statistical agreement. The TDCOSMO+SLACS analysis prefers marginally shallower mass profiles than H0LiCOW or TDCOSMO-only. While our new analysis does not statistically invalidate the mass profile assumptions by H0LiCOW, and thus their $H_0$ measurement relying on those, it demonstrates the importance of understanding the mass density profile of elliptical galaxies. The uncertainties on $H_0$ derived in this paper can be reduced by physical or observational priors on the form of the mass profile, or by additional data, chiefly spatially resolved kinematics of lens galaxies.

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