arXiv subjects

S. H. Suyu

Publications and source records attributed to S. H. Suyu.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

COSMOGRAIL XVII: Time delays for the quadruply imaged quasar PG 1115+080

We present time-delay estimates for the quadruply imaged quasar PG 1115+080. Our resuls are based on almost daily observations for seven months at the ESO MPIA 2.2m telescope at La Silla Observatory, reaching a signal-to-noise ratio of about 1000 per quasar image. In addition, we re-analyse existing light curves from the literature that we complete with an additional three seasons of monitoring with the Mercator telescope at La Palma Observatory. When exploring the possible source of bias we consider the so-called microlensing time delay, a potential source of systematic error so far never directly accounted for in previous time-delay publications. In fifteen years of data on PG 1115+080, we find no strong evidence of microlensing time delay. Therefore not accounting for this effect, our time-delay estimates on the individual data sets are in good agreement with each other and with the literature. Combining the data sets, we obtain the most precise time-delay estimates to date on PG 1115+080, with Dt(AB) = 8.3+1.5-1.6 days (18.7% precision), Dt(AC) = 9.9+1.1-1.1 days (11.1%) and Dt(BC) = 18.8+1.6-1.6 days (8.5%). Turning these time delays into cosmological constraints is done in a companion paper that makes use of ground-based Adaptive Optics (AO) with the Keck telescope.

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arXiv2018

Kinematics of the SN Refsdal host revealed by MUSE: a regularly rotating spiral galaxy at z~1.5

We use Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) observations of the galaxy cluster MACS J1149.5+2223 to explore the kinematics of the grand-design spiral galaxy Sp1149 hosting the SN Refsdal. Sp1149 lies at $z\simeq1.49$, has a stellar mass $M_*\simeq5\times10^9 \, \mathrm{M_\odot}$, a star-formation rate $\mathrm{SFR} \simeq1-6 \, \mathrm{M_\odot/yr}$ and represents a likely progenitor of a Milky-Way-like galaxy. All the four multiple images of Sp1149 in our data show strong OII-line emissions pointing to a clear rotation pattern. We take advantage of the gravitational lensing magnification effect ($\simeq 4 \times$) on the OII emission of the least distorted image to fit 3D kinematic models to the MUSE data-cube and derive the rotation curve and the velocity dispersion profile of Sp1149. We find that the rotation curve steeply rises, peaks at $R\simeq1$ kpc and then (initially) declines and flattens to an average $V_\mathrm{flat} = 128^{+29}_{-19}$ km/s. The shape of the rotation curve is well determined but the actual value of $V_\mathrm{flat}$ is quite uncertain because of the nearly face-on configuration of the galaxy. The intrinsic velocity dispersion due to gas turbulence is almost constant across the entire disc with an average of $27\pm5$ km/s. This value is consistent with $z=0$ measurements in the ionized gas component and a factor 2-4 lower than other estimates in different galaxies at similar redshifts. The average stellar-to-total mass fraction is of the order of one fifth. Our kinematic analysis returns the picture of a regular star-forming, mildly turbulent, rotation-dominated ($V / σ\simeq5$) spiral galaxy in a 4 Gyr old Universe.

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arXiv2017

ALMA view of RX J1131-1231: Sub-kpc CO (2-1) mapping of a molecular disk in a lensed star-forming quasar host galaxy

We present ALMA 2-mm continuum and CO (2-1) spectral line imaging of the gravitationally lensed z=0.654 star-forming/quasar composite RX J1131-1231 at 240-400 mas angular resolution. The continuum emission is found to be compact and coincident with the optical emission, whereas the molecular gas forms a complete Einstein ring, which shows strong differential magnification. The de-lensed source structure is determined on 400-pc resolution using a visibility-fitting lens modelling technique. The reconstructed molecular gas velocity-field is consistent with a rotating disk with a maximum rotational velocity of 280 km/s. From dynamical model fitting we find an enclosed mass M(r<5 kpc)=(1.46+/-0.31)*10^11 M_sol. The molecular gas distribution is highly structured, with clumps that are co-incident with higher gas velocity dispersion regions 40-50 km/s and with the intensity peaks in the optical emission, which are associated with sites of on-going turbulent star-formation. The peak in the CO (2-1) distribution is not co-incident with the AGN, where there is a paucity of molecular gas emission, possibly due to radiative feedback from the central engine. The intrinsic molecular gas luminosity is L'_CO=(1.2+/-0.3)*10^10 K km/s pc^2 and the inferred gas mass is M(H2)=(8.3+/-3.0)*10^10 M_sol, which given its dynamical mass is consistent with a CO-H2 conversion factor of alpha = 5.5+/-2.0 M_solar(K km/s pc^2)^-1. This suggests that the star-formation efficiency is dependent on the host galaxy morphology as opposed to the nature of the AGN. The far-infrared continuum spectral energy distribution shows evidence for heated dust, equivalent to an obscured star-formation rate of SFR=69^(+41)_(-25)*(7.3/u_IR)M_sol/yr, which demonstrates the composite star-forming/AGN nature of this system. RX J1131-1231

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arXiv2017

H0LiCOW VIII. A weak lensing measurement of the external convergence in the field of the lensed quasar HE$\,$0435$-$1223

We present a weak gravitational lensing measurement of the external convergence along the line of sight to the quadruply lensed quasar HE$\,$0435$-$1223. Using deep r-band images from Subaru-Suprime-Cam we observe galaxies down to a 3$σ$ limiting magnitude of $\sim 26$ mags resulting in a source galaxy density of 14 galaxies / arcmin$^2$ after redshift-based cuts. Using an inpainting technique and Multi-Scale Entropy filtering algorithm, we find that the region in close proximity to the lens has an estimated external convergence of $κ=-0.012^{+0.020}_{-0.013}$ and is hence marginally under-dense. We also rule out the presence of any halo with a mass greater than $M_{\rm vir}=1.6\times10^{14}h^{-1}M_\odot$ (68$\%$ confidence limit). Our results, consistent with previous studies of this lens, confirm that the intervening mass along the line of sight to HE$\,$0435$-$1223 does not affect significantly the cosmological results inferred from the time delay measurements of that specific object.

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arXiv2017

DES meets Gaia: discovery of strongly lensed quasars from a multiplet search

We report the discovery, spectroscopic confirmation and first lens models of the first two, strongly lensed quasars from a combined search in WISE and Gaia over the DES footprint. The four-image lensWGD2038-4008 (r.a.=20:38:02.65, dec.=-40:08:14.64) has source- and lens-redshifts $z_{s}=0.777 \pm 0.001$ and $z_l = 0.230 \pm 0.002$ respectively. Its deflector has effective radius $R_{\rm eff} \approx 3.4^{\prime\prime}$, stellar mass $\log(M_{\star}/M_{\odot}) = 11.64^{+0.20}_{-0.43}$, and shows extended isophotal shape variation. Simple lens models yield Einstein radii $R_{\rm E}=(1.30\pm0.04)^{\prime\prime},$ axis ratio $q=0.75\pm0.1$ (compatible with that of the starlight) and considerable shear-ellipticity degeneracies. The two-image lensWGD2021-4115 (r.a.=20:21:39.45, dec.=--41:15:57.11) has $z_{s}=1.390\pm0.001$ and $z_l = 0.335 \pm 0.002$, and Einstein radius $R_{\rm E} = (1.1\pm0.1)^{\prime\prime},$ but higher-resolution imaging is needed to accurately separate the deflector and faint quasar image. We also show high-rank candidate doubles selected this way, some of which have been independently identified with different techniques, and discuss a DES+WISE quasar multiplet selection.

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arXiv2017

COSMOGRAIL XVI: Time delays for the quadruply imaged quasar DES J0408-5354 with high-cadence photometric monitoring

We present time-delay measurements for the new quadruply imaged quasar DES J0408-5354, the first quadruply imaged quasar found in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Our result is made possible by implementing a new observational strategy using almost daily observations with the MPIA 2.2m telescope at La Silla observatory and deep exposures reaching a signal-to-noise ratio of about 1000 per quasar image. This data quality allows us to catch small photometric variations (a few mmag rms) of the quasar, acting on temporal scales much shorter than microlensing, hence making the time delay measurement very robust against microlensing. In only 7 months we measure very accurately one of the time delays in DES J0408-5354: Dt(AB) = -112.1 +- 2.1 days (1.8%) using only the MPIA 2.2m data. In combination with data taken with the 1.2m Euler Swiss telescope, we also measure two delays involving the D component of the system Dt(AD) = -155.5 +- 12.8 days (8.2%) and Dt(BD) = -42.4 +- 17.6 days (41%), where all the error bars include systematics. Turning these time delays into cosmological constraints will require deep HST imaging or ground-based Adaptive Optics (AO), and information on the velocity field of the lensing galaxy.

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arXiv2017

Two Peculiar Fast Transients in a Strongly Lensed Host Galaxy

A massive galaxy cluster can serve as a magnifying glass for distant stellar populations, with strong gravitational lensing exposing details in the lensed background galaxies that would otherwise be undetectable. The MACS J0416.1-2403 cluster (hereafter MACS0416) is one of the most efficient lenses in the sky, and in 2014 it was observed with high-cadence imaging from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Here we describe two unusual transient events that appeared behind MACS0416 in a strongly lensed galaxy at redshift $z = 1.0054 \pm 0.0002$. These transients---designated HFF14Spo-NW and HFF14Spo-SE and collectively nicknamed "Spock"---were faster and fainter than any supernova (SN), but significantly more luminous than a classical nova. They reached peak luminosities of $\sim10^{41}$ erg s$^{-1}$ ($M_{\rm AB} < -14$ mag) in 5 rest-frame days, then faded below detectability in roughly the same time span. Models of the cluster lens suggest that these events may be spatially coincident at the source plane, but are most likely not temporally coincident. We find that HFF14Spo can be explained as a luminous blue variable (LBV), a recurrent nova (RN), or a pair of stellar microlensing events. To distinguish between these hypotheses will require a clarification of the positions of nearby critical curves, along with high-cadence monitoring of the field that could detect new transient episodes in the host galaxy.

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arXiv2017

MACS J0416.1-2403: Impact of line-of-sight structures on strong gravitational lensing modelling of galaxy clusters

Exploiting the powerful tool of strong gravitational lensing by galaxy clusters to study the highest-redshift Universe and cluster mass distributions relies on precise lens mass modelling. In this work, we present the first attempt at modelling line-of-sight mass distribution in addition to that of the cluster, extending previous modelling techniques that assume mass distributions to be on a single lens plane. We focus on the Hubble Frontier Field cluster MACS J0416.1-2403, and our multi-plane model reproduces the observed image positions with a rms offset of ~0.53". Starting from this best-fitting model, we simulate a mock cluster that resembles MACS J0416.1-2403 in order to explore the effects of line-of-sight structures on cluster mass modelling. By systematically analysing the mock cluster under different model assumptions, we find that neglecting the lensing environment has a significant impact on the reconstruction of image positions (rms ~0.3"); accounting for line-of-sight galaxies as if they were at the cluster redshift can partially reduce this offset. Moreover, foreground galaxies are more important to include into the model than the background ones. While the magnification factors of the lensed multiple images are recovered within ~10% for ~95% of them, those ~5% that lie near critical curves can be significantly affected by the exclusion of the lensing environment in the models (up to a factor of ~200). In addition, line-of-sight galaxies cannot explain the apparent discrepancy in the properties of massive subhalos between MACS J0416.1-2403 and N-body simulated clusters. Since our model of MACS J0416.1-2403 with line-of-sight galaxies only reduced modestly the rms offset in the image positions, we conclude that additional complexities, such as more flexible halo shapes, would be needed in future models of MACS J0416.1-2403.

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arXiv2017

Precise strong lensing mass profile of the CLASH galaxy cluster MACS 2129

We present a detailed strong lensing (SL) mass reconstruction of the core of the galaxy cluster MACSJ 2129.4-0741 ($\rm z_{cl}=0.589$) obtained by combining high-resolution HST photometry from the CLASH survey with new spectroscopic observations from the CLASH-VLT survey. A background bright red passive galaxy at $\rm z_{sp}=1.36$, sextuply lensed in the cluster core, has four radial lensed images located over the three central cluster members. Further 19 background lensed galaxies are spectroscopically confirmed by our VLT survey, including 3 additional multiple systems. A total of 31 multiple images are used in the lensing analysis. This allows us to trace with high precision the total mass profile of the cluster in its very inner region ($\rm R<100$ kpc). Our final lensing mass model reproduces the multiple images systems identified in the cluster core with high accuracy of $0.4"$. This translates to an high precision mass reconstruction of MACS 2129, which is constrained at level of 2%. The cluster has Einstein parameter $Θ_E=(29\pm4)"$, and a projected total mass of $\rm M_{tot}(<Θ_E)=(1.35\pm0.03)\times 10^{14}M_{\odot}$ within such radius. Together with the cluster mass profile, we provide here also the complete spectroscopic dataset for the cluster members and lensed images measured with VLT/VIMOS within the CLASH-VLT survey.

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arXiv2017

Separating Galaxies from the Cluster Dark Matter Halo in Abell 611

We investigate the mass content of galaxies in the core of the galaxy cluster Abell 611. We perform a strong lensing analysis of the cluster core and use velocity dispersion measurements for individual cluster members as additional constraints. Despite the small number of multiply-imaged systems and cluster members with central velocity dispersions available in the core of A611, the addition of velocity dispersion measurements leads to tighter constraints on the mass associated with the galaxy component, and as a result, on the mass associated with the dark matter halo. Without the spectroscopic velocity dispersions, we would overestimate the mass of the galaxy component by a factor of $\sim1.5$, or, equivalently, we would underestimate the mass of the cluster dark halo by $\sim5\%$. We perform an additional lensing analysis using surface brightness (SB) reconstruction of the tangential giant arc. This approach improves the constraints on the mass parameters of the 5 galaxies close to the arc by up to a factor $\sim10$. The galaxy velocity dispersions resulting from the SB analysis are consistent at the 1$σ$ confidence level with the spectroscopic measurements and with the prediction from the simple pointlike analysis. In contrast the truncation radii for 2-3 galaxies depart significantly from the galaxy scaling relation and suggest differences in the stripping history from galaxy to galaxy.

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arXiv2017

Models of the strongly lensed quasar DES J0408-5354

We present gravitational lens models of the multiply imaged quasar DES J0408-5354, recently discovered in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) footprint, with the aim of interpreting its remarkable quad-like configuration. We first model the DES single-epoch $grizY$ images as a superposition of a lens galaxy and four point-like objects, obtaining spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and relative positions for the objects. Three of the point sources (A,B,D) have SEDs compatible with the discovery quasar spectra, while the faintest point-like image (G2/C) shows significant reddening and a `grey' dimming of $\approx0.8$mag. In order to understand the lens configuration, we fit different models to the relative positions of A,B,D. Models with just a single deflector predict a fourth image at the location of G2/C but considerably brighter and bluer. The addition of a small satellite galaxy ($R_{\rm E}\approx0.2$") in the lens plane near the position of G2/C suppresses the flux of the fourth image and can explain both the reddening and grey dimming. All models predict a main deflector with Einstein radius between $1.7"$ and $2.0",$ velocity dispersion $267-280$km/s and enclosed mass $\approx 6\times10^{11}M_{\odot},$ even though higher resolution imaging data are needed to break residual degeneracies in model parameters. The longest time-delay (B-A) is estimated as $\approx 85$ (resp. $\approx125$) days by models with (resp. without) a perturber near G2/C. The configuration and predicted time-delays of J0408-5354 make it an excellent target for follow-up aimed at understanding the source quasar host galaxy and substructure in the lens, and measuring cosmological parameters. We also discuss some lessons learnt from J0408-5354 on lensed quasar finding strategies, due to its chromaticity and morphology.

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arXiv2017

Discovery of the Lensed Quasar System DES J0408-5354

We report the discovery and spectroscopic confirmation of the quad-like lensed quasar system DES J0408-5354 found in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 (Y1) data. This system was discovered during a search for DES Y1 strong lensing systems using a method that identified candidates as red galaxies with multiple blue neighbors. DES J0408-5354 consists of a central red galaxy surrounded by three bright (i < 20) blue objects and a fourth red object. Subsequent spectroscopic observations using the Gemini South telescope confirmed that the three blue objects are indeed the lensed images of a quasar with redshift z = 2.375, and that the central red object is an early-type lensing galaxy with redshift z = 0.597. DES J0408-5354 is the first quad lensed quasar system to be found in DES and begins to demonstrate the potential of DES to discover and dramatically increase the sample size of these very rare objects.

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arXiv2017

H0LiCOW V. New COSMOGRAIL time delays of HE0435-1223: $H_0$ to 3.8% precision from strong lensing in a flat $Λ$CDM model

We present a new measurement of the Hubble Constant H0 and other cosmological parameters based on the joint analysis of three multiply-imaged quasar systems with measured gravitational time delays. First, we measure the time delay of HE0435-1223 from 13-year light curves obtained as part of the COSMOGRAIL project. Companion papers detail the modeling of the main deflectors and line of sight effects, and how these data are combined to determine the time-delay distance of HE 0435-1223. Crucially, the measurements are carried out blindly with respect to cosmological parameters in order to avoid confirmation bias. We then combine the time-delay distance of HE0435-1223 with previous measurements from systems B1608+656 and RXJ1131-1231 to create a Time Delay Strong Lensing probe (TDSL). In flat $Λ$CDM with free matter and energy density, we find $H_0$ = 71.9 +2.4 -3.0 km/s/Mpc and $Ω_Λ$ = 0.62 +0.24 -0.35 . This measurement is completely independent of, and in agreement with, the local distance ladder measurements of H0. We explore more general cosmological models combining TDSL with other probes, illustrating its power to break degeneracies inherent to other methods. The TDSL and Planck joint constraints are $H_0$ = 69.2 +1.4 -2.2 km/s/Mpc, $Ω_Λ$ = 0.70 +0.01 -0.01 and $Ω_k$ = 0.003 +0.004 -0.006 in open $Λ$CDM and $H_0$ = 79.0 +4.4 -4.2 km/s/Mpc, $Ω_{de}$ = 0.77 +0.02 -0.03 and $w$ = -1.38 +0.14 -0.16 in flat $w$CDM. Combined with Planck and Baryon Acoustic Oscillation data, when relaxing the constraints on the numbers of relativistic species we find $N_{eff}$ = 3.34 +0.21 -0.21 and when relaxing the total mass of neutrinos we find 0.182 eV. In an open $w$CDM in combination with Planck and CMB lensing we find $H_0$ = 77.9 +5.0 -4.2 km/s/Mpc, $Ω_{de}$ = 0.77 +0.03 -0.03, $Ω_k$ = -0.003 +0.004 -0.004 and $w$ = -1.37 +0.18 -0.23.

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arXiv2017

H0LiCOW II. Spectroscopic survey and galaxy-group identification of the strong gravitational lens system HE0435-1223

Galaxies located in the environment or on the line of sight towards gravitational lenses can significantly affect lensing observables, and can lead to systematic errors on the measurement of $H_0$ from the time-delay technique. We present the results of a systematic spectroscopic identification of the galaxies in the field of view of the lensed quasar HE0435-1223, using the W. M. Keck, Gemini and ESO-Very Large telescopes. Our new catalog triples the number of known galaxy redshifts in the vicinity of the lens, expanding to 102 the number of measured redshifts for galaxies separated by less than 3 arcmin from the lens. We complement our catalog with literature data to gather redshifts up to 15 arcmin from the lens, and search for galaxy groups or clusters projected towards HE0435-1223. We confirm that the lens is a member of a small group that includes at least 12 galaxies, and find 8 other group candidates near the line of sight of the lens. The flexion shift, namely the shift of lensed images produced by high order perturbation of the lens potential, is calculated for each galaxy/group and used to identify which objects produce the largest perturbation of the lens potential. This analysis demonstrates that i) at most three of the five brightest galaxies projected within 12 arcsec of the lens need to be explicitly used in the lens models, and ii) the groups can be treated in the lens model as an external tidal field (shear) contribution.

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arXiv2017

H0LiCOW I. $H_0$ Lenses in COSMOGRAIL's Wellspring: Program Overview

Strong gravitational lens systems with time delays between the multiple images allow measurements of time-delay distances, which are primarily sensitive to the Hubble constant that is key to probing dark energy, neutrino physics, and the spatial curvature of the Universe, as well as discovering new physics. We present H0LiCOW ($H_0$ Lenses in COSMOGRAIL's Wellspring), a program that aims to measure $H_0$ with $<3.5\%$ uncertainty from five lens systems (B1608+656, RXJ1131-1231, HE0435-1223, WFI2033-4723 and HE1104-1805). We have been acquiring (1) time delays through COSMOGRAIL and Very Large Array monitoring, (2) high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope imaging for the lens mass modeling, (3) wide-field imaging and spectroscopy to characterize the lens environment, and (4) moderate-resolution spectroscopy to obtain the stellar velocity dispersion of the lenses for mass modeling. In cosmological models with one-parameter extension to flat $Λ$CDM, we expect to measure $H_0$ to $<3.5\%$ in most models, spatial curvature $Ω_{\rm k}$ to 0.004, $w$ to 0.14, and the effective number of neutrino species to 0.2 (1$σ$ uncertainties) when combined with current CMB experiments. These are, respectively, a factor of $\sim15$, $\sim2$, and $\sim1.5$ tighter than CMB alone. Our data set will further enable us to study the stellar initial mass function of the lens galaxies, and the co-evolution of supermassive black holes and their host galaxies. This program will provide a foundation for extracting cosmological distances from the hundreds of time-delay lenses that are expected to be discovered in current and future surveys.

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arXiv2016

The story of supernova 'Refsdal' told by MUSE

We present MUSE observations in the core of the HFF galaxy cluster MACS J1149.5+2223, where the first magnified and spatially-resolved multiple images of SN 'Refsdal' at redshift 1.489 were detected. Thanks to a DDT program with the VLT and the extraordinary efficiency of MUSE, we measure 117 secure redshifts with just 4.8 hours of total integration time on a single target pointing. We spectroscopically confirm 68 galaxy cluster members, with redshift values ranging from 0.5272 to 0.5660, and 18 multiple images belonging to 7 background, lensed sources distributed in redshifts between 1.240 and 3.703. Starting from the combination of our catalog with those obtained from extensive spectroscopic and photometric campaigns using the HST, we select a sample of 300 (164 spectroscopic and 136 photometric) cluster members, within approximately 500 kpc from the BCG, and a set of 88 reliable multiple images associated to 10 different background source galaxies and 18 distinct knots in the spiral galaxy hosting SN 'Refsdal'. We exploit this valuable information to build 6 detailed strong lensing models, the best of which reproduces the observed positions of the multiple images with a rms offset of only 0.26". We use these models to quantify the statistical and systematic errors on the predicted values of magnification and time delay of the next emerging image of SN 'Refsdal'. We find that its peak luminosity should should occur between March and June 2016, and should be approximately 20% fainter than the dimmest (S4) of the previously detected images but above the detection limit of the planned HST/WFC3 follow-up. We present our two-dimensional reconstruction of the cluster mass density distribution and of the SN 'Refsdal' host galaxy surface brightness distribution. We outline the roadmap towards even better strong lensing models with a synergetic MUSE and HST effort.

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arXiv2015

CLASH-VLT: A Highly Precise Strong Lensing Model of the Galaxy Cluster RXC J2248.7-4431 (Abell S1063) and Prospects for Cosmography

We perform a comprehensive study of the total mass distribution of the galaxy cluster RXCJ2248 ($z=0.348$) with a set of high-precision strong lensing models, which take advantage of extensive spectroscopic information on many multiply lensed systems. In the effort to understand and quantify inherent systematics in parametric strong lensing modelling, we explore a collection of 22 models where we use different samples of multiple image families, parametrizations of the mass distribution and cosmological parameters. As input information for the strong lensing models, we use the CLASH HST imaging data and spectroscopic follow-up observations, carried out with the VIMOS and MUSE spectrographs, to identify bona-fide multiple images. A total of 16 background sources, over the redshift range $1.0-6.1$, are multiply lensed into 47 images, 24 of which are spectroscopically confirmed and belong to 10 individual sources. The cluster total mass distribution and underlying cosmology in the models are optimized by matching the observed positions of the multiple images on the lens plane. We show that with a careful selection of a sample of spectroscopically confirmed multiple images, the best-fit model reproduces their observed positions with a rms of $0.3$ in a fixed flat $Λ$CDM cosmology, whereas the lack of spectroscopic information lead to biases in the values of the model parameters. Allowing cosmological parameters to vary together with the cluster parameters, we find (at $68\%$ confidence level) $Ω_m=0.25^{+0.13}_{-0.16}$ and $w=-1.07^{+0.16}_{-0.42}$ for a flat $Λ$CDM model, and $Ω_m=0.31^{+0.12}_{-0.13}$ and $Ω_Λ=0.38^{+0.38}_{-0.27}$ for a universe with $w=-1$ and free curvature. Using toy models mimicking the overall configuration of RXCJ2248, we estimate the impact of the line of sight mass structure on the positional rms to be $0.3\pm 0.1$.(ABRIDGED)

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2015

"Refsdal" meets Popper: comparing predictions of the re-appearance of the multiply imaged supernova behind MACSJ1149.5+2223

Supernova "Refsdal," multiply imaged by cluster MACSJ1149.5+2223, represents a rare opportunity to make a true blind test of model predictions in extragalactic astronomy, on a time scale that is short compared to a human lifetime. In order to take advantage of this event, we produced seven gravitational lens models with five independent methods, based on Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Hubble Frontier Field images, along with extensive spectroscopic follow-up observations by HST, the Very Large and the Keck Telescopes. We compare the model predictions and show that they agree reasonably well with the measured time delays and magnification ratios between the known images, even though these quantities were not used as input. This agreement is encouraging, considering that the models only provide statistical uncertainties, and do not include additional sources of uncertainties such as structure along the line of sight, cosmology, and the mass sheet degeneracy. We then present the model predictions for the other appearances of SN "Refsdal." A future image will reach its peak in the first half of 2016, while another image appeared between 1994 and 2004. The past image would have been too faint to be detected in existing archival images. The future image should be approximately one third as bright as the brightest known image (i.e., H_AB~25.7 mag at peak and H_AB~26.7 mag six months before peak), and thus detectable in single-orbit HST images. We will find out soon whether our predictions are correct.

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