arXiv subjects

S. J. Shepherd

Publications and source records attributed to S. J. Shepherd.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2022

Comparison of solar activity proxies: eigen vectors versus averaged sunspot numbers

We attempt to establish links between a summary curve, or modulus summary curve, MSC, of the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) derived from Principal Component Analysis, with the averaged sunspot numbers (SSN). The comparison of MSC with the whole set of SSN reveals rather close correspondence of cycle timings, duration and maxima times for the cycles 12- 24, 6,7 and -4,-3. Although, in 1720-1760 and 1830-1860 there are discrepancies in maximum amplitudes of the cycles, durations and shifts of the maximum times between MSC and SSN curves. The MSC curve reveals pretty regular cycles with double maxima (cycles 1-4), triple maximum amplitude distributions for cycles 0 and 1 and for cycles -1 and -2 just before Maunder minimum. The MSC cycles in 1700-1750 reveal smaller maximal magnitudes in cycles -3 to 0 and in cycle 1-4 than the amplitudes of SSN, while cycles -2 to 0 have reversed maxima with minima with SSN. Close fitting of MSC or Bayesian models to the sunspot curve distorts the occurrences of either Maunder Minimum or/and modern grand solar minimum (2020-2053). These discrepancies can be caused by poor observations and by difference in solar magnetic fields responsible for these proxies. The dynamo simulations of toroidal and poloidal magnetic field in the grand solar cycle (GSC) from 1650 until 2050 demonstrate the clear differences between their amplitude variations during the GSC. The use of eigen vectors of SBMF can provide additional information to that derived from SSN that can be useful for understanding solar activity.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale

Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019-2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. On the other hand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by a value of about $1-1.5$ $Wm^{-2}$ closely correlated with an increase of the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. In order to understand these two opposite trends, we calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic field variations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strong oscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand (350-400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo. In addition, oscillations of the baseline (zero-line) of magnetic field with a period of $1950\pm95$ years (a super-grand cycle) are discovered by applying a running averaging filter to suppress large-scale oscillations of 11 year cycles. Latest minimum of the baseline oscillations is found to coincide with the grand solar minimum (the Maunder minimum) occurred before the current super-grand cycle start. Since then the baseline magnitude became slowly increasing towards its maximum at $~$2700 to be followed by its decrease and minimum at $~$3700. These oscillations of the baseline solar magnetic field are found associated with a long-term solar inertial motion about the barycenter of the solar system that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial temperature by 2.5-3.0$^\circ$C.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

Reinforcing the double dynamo model with solar-terrestrial activity in the past three millennia

Using a summary curve of two eigen vectors of solar magnetic field oscillations derived with Principal Components Analysis (PCA) from synoptic maps for solar cycles 21-24 as a proxy of solar activity, we extrapolate this curve backwards three millennia revealing 9 grand cycles lasting 350-400 years each. The summary curve shows a remarkable resemblance to the past sunspot and terrestrial activity: grand minima - Maunder Minimum (1645-1715 AD), Wolf minimum (1280-1350 AD), Oort minimum (1010-1050 AD) and Homer minimum (800-900 BC); grand maxima - modern warm period (1990-2015), medieval warm period (900-1200 AD), Roman warm period (400-10 BC) and others. We verify the extrapolated activity curve by the pre-telescope observations of large sunspots with naked eye, by comparing the observed and simulated butterfly diagrams for Maunder Minimum (MM), by a maximum of the terrestrial temperature and extremely intense terrestrial auroras seen in the past grand cycle occurred in 14-16 centuries. We confirm the occurrence of upcoming Modern grand minimum in 2020-2053, which will have a shorter duration (3 cycles) and, thus, higher solar activity compared to MM. We argue that Sporer minimum (1450-1550) derived from the increased abundances of isotopes 14C and 10Be is likely produced by a strong increase of the terrestrial background radiation caused by the galactic cosmic rays of powerful supernovae.

astro-ph.SR↗